This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 02/10/2024.
Hurricane Kirk is strengthening in the mid-Atlantic and is expected to move north during the next few days. But could Kirk come close to the UK and, if it did, what would happen?
Bringing you this 10 day s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
Hurricane Kirk is strengthening in the mid-Atlantic and is expected to move north during the next few days. But could Kirk come close to the UK and, if it did, what would happen?
Bringing you this 10 day s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there. Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. We're into October. We normally expect
00:05areas of low pressure, wet and windy weather at this time of year, although we've certainly
00:10seen plenty of that during the last few months and throughout much of the summer. However,
00:15there is more low pressure to come. This is Sunday, a very large Atlantic system that
00:22will only slowly progress across the country during the weekend and into the start of next
00:28week. Meanwhile, something else is brewing in the Mid-Atlantic, a hurricane that could
00:34influence the UK's weather later next week. Much more on that in a moment. But, a far
00:40cry from low pressure, we've got higher pressure at the moment sitting over the UK, a welcome
00:45respite from all the wet weather we had across central and southern UK throughout September.
00:52That higher pressure building from the north and leading to a widespread fine day on Thursday
00:58Sunday spells one or two showers possible in the far south-east. Otherwise, it's widespread
01:04dry and bright weather. I'm feeling pleasant enough with lighter winds and temperatures
01:09in the mid-teens, although still a cool breeze coming from the North Sea in the south-east
01:13corner. Now, out to the west, you'll notice an area of cloud and rain and that's going
01:19to only slowly edge in through Thursday night and western parts of Northern Ireland and
01:25then eventually those outbreaks of mostly light at first rain come into the Western
01:30Isles. Ahead of that, clear spells and a chilly start again on Friday with temperatures dipping
01:36into the mid or even low single figures in some shelter spots. But, Friday afternoon
01:40for many is dry and bright once again. Sunny spells, a bit more cloud around, certainly
01:46across north-western parts of Northern Ireland, western Scotland, the breeze picks up, the
01:50cloud thickens and further outbreaks of mostly light to moderate rain starting to appear.
01:57This is that very slow moving but very large area of low pressure that's starting to turn
02:03up in the west. Higher pressure losing its influence but still close enough to the UK
02:08in the east to lead to another fine day for many on Saturday whilst this low increasingly
02:15brings unsettled weather into the west. So, a west-east contrast increasingly on Saturday.
02:20We start off with some bits and pieces of rain in the far north and north-west of Scotland
02:24on Saturday. Otherwise, plenty of fine weather, the breeze picks up, the cloud builds and
02:28in the west certainly it's going to deteriorate through the day on Saturday. By the afternoon,
02:34some heavy rain arriving into Pembrokeshire, Devon and Cornwall along with an increasing
02:38wind. That wind in some exposed western parts reaching Galeforce by the end of the day.
02:45It's coming from a warm direction, so 16-17 Celsius despite the increasing clouds and
02:50the best of the sunshine there across parts of central Scotland, eastern England staying
02:55fine throughout much of Saturday. But by Sunday, those weather fronts are making more concerted
03:01progress across the country from the west to the east. You'll notice their weakening
03:04as they move eastwards. So, cloudy, yes, and damp in places but mostly on and off rain
03:10in the east, nothing particularly wet whilst Wales and the south-west see the heaviest
03:17rain during Sunday, especially into the afternoon, another bout of wet weather moving through.
03:22So, the general trend through the weekend is spells of rain increasingly arriving from
03:27the west and the south-west, the wettest weather most likely across Wales and the south-west
03:32with the further east you are, the drier it will likely be certainly at first. But that
03:38low pressure still with us as we start off next week. You'll notice how big it is and
03:44how the jet stream just wraps around it, hence why it's slow moving. Basically, the jet stream
03:50is not pushing it along. It's in this dip in the jet stream and it just lingers across
03:55the UK Monday, Tuesday, perhaps into Wednesday as well, basically bringing what we call a
04:01returning polar maritime air mass. That's where the air originates in the poles but
04:06then returns back across the UK from the south-west. So, it's unstable because it's
04:11coming initially from cold air and then going over warmer seas but it's also going to contain
04:17a lot of moisture because it's coming up from the south-west picking up that humidity. So,
04:22in a returning polar maritime air mass we get frequent downpours, perhaps some thunderstorms,
04:27and the heaviest rain is mostly towards the south-west. With some drier and brighter interludes
04:34in between the showers, it's not going to be raining everywhere all the time. It's going
04:37to be blustery though with a gusty wind, especially again towards the west and the south-west.
04:44Now waiting in the wings, as I mentioned at the start, this. This is Kirk by this stage
04:51moving into the North Atlantic and becoming an ex-hurricane. Now, I can say with confidence
04:57that Hurricane Kirk won't hit the UK next week. How can I be so confident about that?
05:04Well, let's take a look first of all at the official track from the National Hurricane
05:07Centre and that transforms Hurricane Kirk into a major hurricane, that's Category 3,
05:124 or 5 during Thursday and it's going to be a small but powerful beast moving north through
05:20the Atlantic, thankfully staying well clear of land areas. But it does move north and
05:27as it moves north, what happens? It encounters much cooler seas. You'll notice this stark
05:33contrast between the North Atlantic sea temperatures at the moment and the mid or even central
05:39parts of the Atlantic and as a result, the hurricane as it moves north will encounter
05:45cooler seas and when sea temperatures drop below 26.5 degrees, hurricanes lose their
05:51source of fuel. Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that are fuelled by warm seas and when they
05:56lose that fuel source, they typically die away very quickly unless they join up with
06:03the jet stream and that can be another source for fuel but can also transform them into
06:07a different type of low and that's what happens on Monday. Kirk moves far enough north that
06:13it gets picked up by the jet stream so it stops weakening and instead it begins spinning
06:20up in a different way. Instead of deriving its fuel from warm seas, it gets its fuel
06:25from upper winds that spin it and carry it across the Atlantic. In that way, it transforms
06:32from a hurricane into what we call an extra-tropical cyclone or a mid-latitude low or an ex-hurricane.
06:40It's a different feature. Now these systems, just like the one that we're experiencing
06:45at the start of the week, another one coming along there, these mid-latitude lows tend
06:50to be larger spatially but less powerful. However, they can cause some issues and there
06:58are some model predictions, plenty of model simulations that have that ex-hurricane heading
07:04towards the UK. This is from the European model and it sends ex-hurricane Kirk towards
07:09south-western parts of the UK. We don't just look at one model simulation, we look at lots
07:15and here's another simulation from the European model and another and quite a few simulations
07:21have that ex-hurricane or the remnants of Kirk heading towards the UK but not all of
07:28them do. Here are the tracks from 52 simulations and what you'll notice is that they all keep
07:36Kirk running in the same direction through the rest of the week, into the weekend and
07:41Monday. This is its likely position by Monday and it's at this point that it enters the
07:47jet stream that the tracks start to diverge. Now, most of them do still bring something
07:53close to the UK for the end of next week but some of them have the track going a completely
07:59different direction. So, most likely Kirk in some shape or form will come close to the
08:05UK either as an ex-hurricane or merging with another Atlantic low to bring mixed weather,
08:12wet and windy weather but a typical depression that we normally see in October. So, it's
08:18not going to be a hurricane but we could experience the remnants of Kirk or an ex-hurricane by
08:25the end of next week. The uncertainty lies in how it interacts with the jet stream. As
08:30you can see it's the point at which Kirk enters the jet stream that these simulations diverge
08:35a bit more and that's because it's a small but very powerful system and exactly when
08:40it enters the jet stream will have big consequences on where it ends up after that. But most likely
08:47as I say it will come towards the UK and more or less continue the unsettled theme. So,
08:53we start next week with one area of low pressure. This is the most likely weather pattern for
08:57early next week. Low pressure moving into the UK, spells of rain especially in the west
09:02and southwest and slightly below average temperatures. And then the most likely weather pattern for
09:07later in the week is another low. Now, whether that's ex-hurricane Kirk or another Atlantic
09:12low, well, it's interesting to consider but in effect it's basically just more wet and
09:20windy weather and more spells of unpleasant weather basically. Whether it's an ex-hurricane,
09:27the remnants of an ex-hurricane or a different low, I suspect won't make too much difference
09:32on people's lives. It's very likely throughout next week to be highly cyclonic, highly unsettled.
09:40This is the general theme from the European model. So, this averages the pressure pattern
09:45through the week and it shows definite signs for low pressure continuing through next week.
09:51And as a result, this is the rainfall anomaly through that week and it shows the wettest
09:57weather will be towards the southwest, drier towards western and northern Scotland compared
10:03with average. So, a south-shifted jet stream, low pressure or at least several lows through
10:08the week, whether one of them contains the remnants of ex-hurricane Kirk or whether Kirk
10:13gets wrapped up into another system and stays away, well, that's to be decided. We'll keep
10:19you updated right here at the Met Office. Subscribe to YouTube so you never miss one
10:23of those updates.