IHSG -0,90% ke 6.585,743 di sesi I Kamis (13/2). IDX Sektor Energi -0,91%, CUAN -8,08%. IDX Sektor Transportasi dan Logistik -0,90%, ASSA -0,86%. IDX Sektor Infrastruktur -0,55% TLKM -4,44. IDX Sektor Properti dan Real Estate +1,25%, PANI +8,26%. Di sesi II IHSG pangkas pelemahan ke 6.600-an, dan saham UNVR bangkit dari level terendah Rp1.290.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street dominan melemah, Rabu, setelah data inflasi AS di Januari 2025 lebih tinggi dari perkiraan menambah kekhawatiran The Fed tidak akan memangkas suku bunga dalam waktu dekat.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street dominan melemah, Rabu, setelah data inflasi AS di Januari 2025 lebih tinggi dari perkiraan menambah kekhawatiran The Fed tidak akan memangkas suku bunga dalam waktu dekat.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will try to review the analysis of the movement of the Samgabungan family, which today is again experiencing weaknesses, but the weaknesses are more towards the borderline.
00:17And we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 at 8788.723, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:27And right now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Joshua Marcius, a technical analyst at Philips Securitas Indonesia.
00:34We will go straight to Mr. Joshua. Good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:38I'm fine, sir.
00:39Thank you, Mr. Joshua, for taking the time to be on the IDA Channel.
00:43Today, the Samgabungan family is going in the opposite direction, Mr. Joshua.
00:47The strength of the Samgabungan family yesterday was quite significant.
00:53The Samgabungan family seems to be unable to last long.
00:56Technically, how do you see the movement of the Samgabungan family today?
01:00But it is still able to overcome weaknesses and has returned to the level of 6,600.
01:05If we look at it technically, it's still quite okay.
01:08Because it still stands above the support of 680, which we can see together.
01:12It has been historically three times more unresistible there.
01:15And again, after being hit by the wave, it even rose by 1.7% yesterday.
01:20Today's correction is considered quite normal, remembering that it is still above 680.
01:25If it still stays there, it looks like there is still room to move 6,870 to the 6,930 resistance range.
01:31Okay, what can be respected, Mr. Joshua, when the Samgabungan family has not been able to last this far?
01:38These are the last few weeks, this has increased significantly.
01:41Then it is not yet able to maintain its position, more to daily strength.
01:47If we look at it, it's still not able to, this is still normal.
01:51It was just a swing shape too, if it is supported lately.
01:54In the future, maybe, if not only the purchasing power, maybe in terms of macro also supports.
02:00Purchasing power has increased again, and maybe the sales of motorized cars have also returned.
02:06Maybe it doesn't experience a correction of 11%, like the news earlier.
02:09If macro supports, we will also experience a rise again, it seems.
02:13Okay, what do you see? Is there an impact from the international, sir?
02:19Earlier, the US inflation data seemed to be well above expectations,
02:22it has returned to more than 3% annually.
02:26Meanwhile, Governor DeVette's statement at the Congress Department, this is the second day,
02:32it seems to be again depressing.
02:34With the addition of this new data, it also strengthens that DeVette will still be a hawkish in the future.
02:41Yes, indeed, the comments from several offices tend to be hawkish.
02:46It is more stable at 4.5%, there are no signs of going down.
02:50Still want to see the future data.
02:51And the data that was just updated, the CPI yesterday also experienced an increase from 2.9% to 3%.
02:57Indicates that inflation is still quite high, above DeVette's 2% target.
03:02And also if we look at the employment data, the employment rate data from 4.1% to 4.0%,
03:09the employment rate is quite good, so it seems that this hawkish will still last.
03:13And the opportunity is indeed, the inflow of the flower tribe, which was 100, has dropped to 50.
03:17And lately, the prediction is only 25 basis points.
03:20That is also affecting Indonesia, maybe because the spread is not that big with the US itself.
03:28Yes, related to this development, Mr. Joshua, a short-term direction first for the Samkabungan family.
03:33Tomorrow, coincidentally, there will also be a weekend holiday trade, sir.
03:38Yes, usually if there is no inflation, there is usually a potential correction.
03:43But if it's still above 6.80, we're still pretty safe.
03:47It's still pretty safe, even if the correction is still up there, it's still not past 6.80, it's still pretty okay.
03:53And if it's still stable there, there is still a potential for inflation of 6.800.
03:58Okay, but in today's intraday, is the support still maintained, sir?
04:02With the expansion of power and back to 6.600 again?
04:06It's still maintained at 6.80, it's still stable up there.
04:09It hasn't been passed at all for the support area, so it's still pretty safe.
04:13Maybe we'll be free if it's passed in the future.
04:16Okay, today, the Samkabungan family, as we have reviewed earlier, the weakness is more towards the brink, sir.
04:22Some of the big cap stocks seem to be trying to go back to this direction.
04:27But before we discuss, from the position of large capitalized stocks, sir,
04:33I want to go to Unilever first from the consumer,
04:37where Unilever used to have a large capitalization, but with a significant price drop,
04:43causing the market cap to continue to decline.
04:47Even today's intraday was able to touch the lowest level in 1290,
04:52then quite a lot from the fundamental Unilever sentiment,
04:59so the investors give their presentation on the technical movements of Unilever.
05:05Your analysis?
05:07For Unilever itself, if we look at the gap above, the standroom has not yet been closed in terms of technical.
05:14And if we talk about the fundamental, it's going down from the revenue,
05:18even the net income, the net income has dropped to double digits, in my opinion.
05:22It also affects the long-term trend, weekly, daily is still a downtrend.
05:26So if you look at the long-term, there is still a possibility of a decline.
05:30But as long as it is maintained in support of 1290,
05:34there is still a possibility of strengthening because it is a bullish hammer,
05:39but the strengthening is limited, maybe to the level of 1525.
05:43What is the recommendation?
05:45So the potential is only to the limited strengthening, sir.
05:48So by own weakness to the limited strengthening to the level of 1525.
05:52So it's still in the bearish trend, only strengthening rather than contracting.
05:56Is there an impact from the fundamental side, Mr. Joshua?
06:01From the performance side, it has been said that it continues to decline.
06:05But investors still point out the dividend dividend sharing.
06:10Even in the previous years, the dividend value was given higher than the net income they got.
06:16What do you think?
06:17Do you see this effect in the future?
06:19Then also the attitude or response from the investors,
06:24especially for investors who are only chasing dividends or dividend hunters in this matter, sir?
06:30Well, the strengthening is limited, as we said, technical.
06:34And indeed, I have seen it historically,
06:37even though there is dividend sharing,
06:39in the long term, it still follows the decline trend.
06:42So it is possible that the price movement still continues to decline,
06:45especially the fundamental is in line with the technical movement.
06:49Okay, analysis for the unilever of technical and fundamental shareholders.
06:54Today, it is back to strengthening, and the strengthening is directed more to the limited direction
06:59and recommended by own weakness from the support and resistance side,
07:02which has been mentioned earlier.
07:04And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the shareholders.
07:08Okay, let's move on to the next stock.
07:11To move on to the Big Cap Banking, sir.
07:14Today, it is also interesting to pay attention to Samsung Big Cap Banking.
07:18Want to go to BMRI, sir.
07:20The only one that has strengthened significantly in recent days
07:24and has returned to the level of 5,000 for BMRI.
07:28Mr. Jesua, your analysis for BMRI.
07:31Yes, actually for the four banks, including BMRI,
07:35the trend has been compact in the medium term,
07:38the trend has tended to decline.
07:40And in BMRI, although it has declined,
07:42but lately it has begun to rebound,
07:44with the formation of swing as well.
07:46The swing low is already good,
07:47so there is a possibility that it will strengthen,
07:49but the strengthening is limited in the line trend,
07:51which is up to level 5,000 or 50,000,
07:53as long as it stays in the support of 4,750.
07:58In the medium term, where will it go, Mr. Jesua?
08:01If we look at it, it's still a downtrend.
08:03Maybe in the future there will be a reversal signal,
08:06a technical reversal, for example,
08:08there is a divergence, which is just interesting.
08:10Now the increase is still limited.
08:13Is it the same recommendation for other big cap banks, sir?
08:16Or maybe there is a technical evaluation
08:19that you think is better
08:22among the four big cap banks, which one?
08:26If we talk about technical,
08:28it's all the same.
08:30The strengthening seems to be limited in terms of technicality.
08:33Although there is a stochastic trend going up,
08:35there is also a new swing load formed,
08:37but it is still in the bearish trend phase.
08:39If we talk about other things,
08:41in terms of dividends, the biggest yield,
08:43as far as I know, is in the BRI.
08:45Maybe that can also be seen,
08:47whether the valuation is already cheap
08:49or not compared to the recent ones,
08:51or compared to other investors.
08:53Okay, analysis from several big cap banks,
08:56and hopefully it can be a reference for you.
08:58Mr. Jesua, we will pause for a while,
09:00later we will continue,
09:01later we will see what Samsung chooses
09:03that you recommend,
09:04and also the closing update of trading
09:06in the second session today.
09:08Without further ado, we will be right back.