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00:00Hello, everyone, I'm François Picard.
00:13This is a trade war.
00:15The words of Canada's Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, reacting to Donald Trump's
00:2125% import tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and his own country.
00:27Justin Trudeau telling a press conference in Ottawa that the U.S. president wants to
00:31see a collapse of the Canadian economy because that would make it easier to annex us.
00:39Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight.
00:45Not when our country and the well-being of everyone in it is at stake.
00:51Canada will be implementing 25% tariffs against $155 billion worth of American goods, starting
01:00with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining
01:06$125 billion of American products in 21 days' time.
01:13Trudeau warns it's going to be tough, promising support for Canadian workers and businesses,
01:19adding that they'll be taking measures in Ottawa to prevent predatory behavior that
01:25threaten Canadian companies.
01:27There's shock on both sides of the Atlantic.
01:30Over there on tariffs, as we're seeing here, over the freezing of military aid to Ukraine.
01:38That's just the latest in a downward spiral between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky,
01:42one that was on full display last Friday with that showdown at the White House.
01:46Andrew Hillier has more.
01:50Donald Trump gave little away when asked why Washington had decided to suspend its aid
01:55to Ukraine.
01:58I could give you an answer and go back to my office, the beautiful Oval Office.
02:02I could go back into the Oval Office and find out that the answer is obsolete.
02:07There were no details about how much aid would be impacted, nor how long the pause would
02:12last.
02:13According to a non-partisan budget committee, the US Congress has approved 179 billion dollars
02:19in aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion three years ago.
02:25That's less than figures quoted by Donald Trump, who says that Washington has given
02:29more aid than Europe, a false claim according to the Kiel Institute.
02:34But Washington is the biggest single contributor.
02:37A large part of the aid is actually spent in the US itself, replenishing stocks of ammunitions,
02:43and factories that ship weapons to Ukraine.
02:46According to the American Enterprise Institute, the aid finances the arms industry in more
02:50than 70 US towns and cities.
02:53The list of weapons is long, and includes infantry supplies, Abrams tanks, surface-to-air
02:59missiles, artillery shells, advanced radar systems, and even cluster munitions banned
03:06under international law.
03:08The decision to suspend aid could impact former President Joe Biden's promise to supply
03:13Kiev with long-range missiles.
03:16It's also unknown whether the US will continue to share intelligence with Ukraine.
03:22Beyond military aid, the money is used to help pay Ukrainian government employees.
03:27It also provided financing to support Ukraine's public services, using USAID to distribute
03:33the money, the US government's foreign aid arm, which Donald Trump's administration is
03:38currently dismantling.
03:41And for more, let's cross to Kiev and correspondent Emmanuelle Chaz.
03:46Emmanuelle, we've just had a tweet from the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying
03:55that the showdown last Friday was, quote, regrettable and it's time to make things right.
04:04Absolutely. So, in his address on social media, President Zelensky said that nobody more than
04:12Ukraine wanted peace and that he was ready to implement a truce in the sky, a ban on
04:19missiles, long-range drones, bombs on energy infrastructure and other civilian infrastructure,
04:25as well as a truce, and see if Russia will do the same.
04:30Once again, Volodymyr Zelensky points out that, in fact, there is one country that is
04:35victim of an aggression, which is Ukraine, and one aggressor there, which is Russia.
04:40Ukraine can stop, can want a truce from that moment onwards. If Russia wants it as well,
04:48there will be a truce. And that is actually a moment of truce here in Ukraine, because
04:53if indeed the Kremlin accepts this, there will be a truce. If it doesn't, it will prove
04:59to the world, to Donald Trump and J.D. Vance as well, that, in fact, the aggressor and
05:04the party that is not interested in peace at this hour is Russia and not Ukraine.
05:10And what are more broadly reactions to people you've been speaking with this Tuesday?
05:17Well, people, I think it's been a few days now, it's fair to say, that Ukrainians were
05:23expecting such bad news as what they got today when they heard that the U.S. was suspended,
05:30suspending, pausing its military help to Ukraine. People are worried for two reasons. First,
05:36because this military aid we've just heard in the reports, it goes on the front line,
05:42be it in the form of ammunition, in the form of intelligence, in the form of vehicles,
05:49unsecured vehicles. All of that, if it's not delivered to the front line, will make
05:53things much harder for soldiers on the front line. That being said, the soldiers I could
05:58talk to were maybe disillusioned, but also they said they would still keep fighting,
06:04keep on fighting. And Ukrainian soldiers have been on that front line, not just since 2022,
06:09but since 2014. And more often than not, without American help, and they would continue to
06:15do so, though at a probably much higher price, a price that will be...
06:20All right, we seem to have lost the connection there, unfortunately, with Kyiv. Emmanuel
06:26Shah's reporting. For more, let's cross now over to what this means for, what this means
06:34in terms, concretely, for Ukraine. Antonia Kerrigan has a look at that.
06:49A never-so-conciliatory message from President Zelensky, hoping to salvage relations with
06:54Washington after President Trump asked him to leave the White House on Friday and announced
07:00the suspension of US military aid to Kyiv on Monday.
07:06My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that
07:11lasts. Our meeting in Washington at the White House on Friday did not go the way it was
07:16supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things
07:21right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.
07:28Adding that Ukraine are ready, at Washington's convenience, to sign a $350 billion deal allowing
07:35the US to exploit rare earth metals in the country, this in the hope of tightening ties
07:41and locking in support for Kyiv. The Ukrainian premier insists that their troops can hold
07:46firm on the battlefield even without American supplies. But Kyiv also fears that without
07:52an urgent rapprochement between the countries, they may be forced to accept a US-negotiated
07:57peace with Russia on Moscow's terms, forcing them to surrender swathes of land. Outwith
08:03the political sphere, the suspension of US aid has outraged Ukrainians.
08:09It's like a stab in the back because we were counting on them. We are counting on them
08:14and it's, I don't know, somehow wrong I think.
08:20Our president stood up for our independence. We've been fighting for three years now.
08:25The US was one of our most important partners and now they're turning their backs on us.
08:31That's not right.
08:35Washington has been Kyiv's number one donor since the Russian invasion in 2022. Shipments
08:40so far worth $65.9 billion including state-of-the-art Patriot air defence systems, modern American
08:47tanks and vast quantities of ammunition.
08:52And for more, let's cross to London and journalist Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence
08:57officer. Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
09:01Thank you for having me.
09:03First off, how long can Ukraine hold out with this pause in US help?
09:08Well, that's a very difficult question to answer. It's almost how long is a piece of
09:13string. I think Ukraine can hold out for quite a period of time. We remember last year whenever
09:19the Republican leader of the House refused to have a vote to release $60 billion of US
09:24aid to Ukraine and that went on for months and months and months and effectively stopped
09:30any US aid getting into Ukraine. Ukraine held out for a lot of that time. Ukraine can buy
09:37time by trading territory and still inflicting huge casualties on the Russians. The only
09:44thing we can guarantee is that this stop in US aid will lead to more deaths, not fewer.
09:51More deaths. But we heard Zelensky's, we saw Zelensky's tweets this Tuesday calling it
09:58regrettable. He's trying to patch things up. However, later there's going to be this address
10:03by Donald Trump before a joint session of Congress. The damage is done?
10:10Well, the damage is done, but I think it was pre-planned. I think it was set up looking
10:14at what's happening. And one of the key indicators for that is J.D. Vance was the attack dog.
10:21This isn't the vice president's area of responsibility. That is Marcus Rubio. Marcus Rubio was sitting
10:29on the sofa beside him in the Oval Office and said nothing. It's the Secretary of State's
10:34responsibility to deal with foreign policy. It's the J.D. Vance's responsibility tends
10:41to be domestic politics inside the United States. So this is where there are some very
10:47unusual things happening inside US politics. And the real motivation behind it, I don't
10:53think is completely clear. There are a number of different theories as to why that should
10:57happen. We have to see what Donald Trump's reaction is going to be to Zelensky's very
11:03conciliatory statement this afternoon that he's put out and saying he's ready to come
11:08back to the negotiating table again. That's what Trump had asked him to do. But I think
11:14Trump has already decided what he's going to bring out in this statement this evening.
11:18And I think that will hit the headlines even more tomorrow morning across Europe.
11:23Hit the headlines and the suspension of the military aid. Of course, all of this brings
11:31at the same time in some of the other reactions. Stay with us, Philip Ingram, because we're
11:36going to look at some of the reactions on this side of the Atlantic. And the French
11:40prime minister coming out swinging in a hearing before the French Senate, François Bayrou,
11:46saying suspending aid during a war to a country under attack means abandoning that country
11:52and accepting or hoping that the aggressor will win. Meanwhile, over in Brussels, they're
11:59trying to figure out how to make up the shortfall that's coming in military aid for Ukraine.
12:09In a drastic response to Washington's suspending aid to Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen laid
12:14out her vision of how the EU could become a defense powerhouse.
12:19Europe is ready to assume its responsibilities. Rearmed Europe could mobilize close to 800
12:28billion euros of defense expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe.
12:35The proposal would be mostly funded by member states' own budgets. Using the so-called national
12:40escape clause, defense spending would be exempt from the bloc's budgetary rules so that member
12:46states may spend on defense without fearing punishing proceedings if their deficit exceeds
12:513% of GDP. So if member states would increase their defense spending by 1.5% of GDP on average,
13:02this could create fiscal space of close to 650 billion euros over a period of four years.
13:11To make up the target 800 billion euros, the European Commission president also proposed
13:16a new loan instrument, a 150 billion euro fund that member states could borrow from
13:22to build up their arsenals of artillery and air defense, including to be sent to Ukraine.
13:28Under the proposals, the EU's so-called cohesion funds, money allocated for levelling up standards
13:34of living in deprived regions of Europe, could be repurposed for defense spending.
13:39Finally, von der Leyen is eyeing private funds, further billions she hopes to mobilize through
13:45a savings union and the European Investment Bank. European leaders will discuss these
13:50and other proposals on Thursday at an extraordinary meeting of the European Council focused on
13:55defense and the war in Ukraine.
13:58And we're in the company of Philip Ingram, former British officer from London, and our
14:04Brussels correspondent Dave Keating, who now joins us from the Belgian capital, from
14:09the European capital. Dave, a lot of this you were telling me before we went on air
14:16is stuff that's been announced before. You did hear in that report, though, this instrument
14:23for borrowing money, 150 billion euros. Is that new?
14:31Well, this is all kind of stuff that's been worked on. So it's new in the fact that it
14:35hasn't happened yet, but these aren't new ideas. And already, for instance, the drop
14:39on the fiscal debt rules that would allow countries to violate spending rules in order
14:44to spend on defense, the opposition to that has basically already been dropped by Germany.
14:49Von der Leyen had proposed it. In addition, when it comes to allowing the European Investment
14:54Bank, the new funds that you're referencing there, to invest in defense, that's already
14:59been in the works. I think the point was to put this all together as a package that the
15:03leaders can sign up to on Thursday or at least discuss. It looks like something. It looks
15:08like they're reacting to the ending of funding overnight, that announcement coming from
15:13Washington. But it also is serving to kind of distract from the lack of more immediate
15:19assistance that they were trying to do, that they were hoping to do. So it's new things,
15:25but it's not necessarily things that weren't already in the works.
15:29And Dave, having a summit like the one we saw where Philip is in London on Sunday, among
15:36people who are of the same view, that's easy. Hosting one this coming Thursday with, I guess,
15:41what you could call the awkward squad on this one, Hungary, Slovakia, that's going to be
15:46hard.
15:48Yeah, exactly. And already we're hearing that Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is
15:53vetoing this attempt to have 20 billion euros more sent to Ukraine right away to help them
15:58very much in the short term. Now, they're still working on that. There's two days left.
16:02And so they're trying to find some way to overcome that opposition from Hungary. I think
16:06any hope of actually convincing Orbán to end his veto on that has been dropped. But
16:10there are ways around it. It is the case in the Council that even on these issues that
16:15require unanimity, there are ways around it. They've done it in the past, but the national
16:19capitals don't like to do it because it sets a precedent that dilutes national power, hands
16:24more power to the EU, and they don't like it. They may have no choice here because while
16:29if they have conclusions on all of these measures on Thursday, that might look like success.
16:34Everything that Ursula von der Leyen announced this morning are long-term measures. And when
16:38it comes to the short-term help that Ukraine needs because of the loss of American assistance,
16:44that unless they succumb to some kind of agreement on that on Thursday, that's a really serious
16:48black hole that Ukraine is facing in the short term.
16:51Philip Ingram, let me ask you about these workarounds and about really what Dave is
16:57talking about. It brings us back to last Sunday because it's kind of working on how do you
17:03do NATO without the United States. And there's the EU on the one hand, and then there's the
17:09likes of the UK, Norway, Canada.
17:14Well, NATO has got a plan to be able to plan and control operations without the United
17:22States. That is why the deputy supreme commander was always a British officer. So supreme commander,
17:28a US officer, deputy supreme commander, British officer. That was thrown into difficulty when
17:33the UK left the EU. But that British officer was there to command NATO operations if the
17:39United States decided they didn't want to be part of it. So there is a framework there
17:43for that to happen. And now is the time for that to be properly refined. And I would hope
17:47that in our national capitals across Europe and in Canada, we have to remember Canada
17:53is a member of NATO as well, that the planning is going in to see how it could be restructured
18:00if the Americans decide either to withdraw completely, which I don't think they will
18:04do, but to step back from the leadership of NATO so that they can focus and concentrate
18:10on their national activities elsewhere, which I think may be in the statement from Donald
18:15Trump this evening. I'm speculating purely here.
18:19Wow, that could be in the statement. Events are moving fast, Philip Ingram. When you look
18:25at last Sunday in London, that summit hosted by Keir Starmer, when you look at next Thursday,
18:30the EU summit that's happening, are things moving fast enough?
18:36Yes, things are moving fast politically. There's an awful lot of talk. The things that do not
18:41move fast and cannot move fast are all of the financial changes that are coming in.
18:47But they're probably the fastest to implement. The next, which is much more difficult, is
18:52bringing the defence industrial base to a level where it can meet the outputs that are
18:57required for the current conflict, never mind building up stocks for anything else. And
19:03that takes years. And then it's generating the military capability across all of the
19:08different countries to the levels that are going to be needed to carry out operations
19:13without the integration of the United States. And that will take tens of years to go through.
19:18And therefore, we are, and I include the UK in my description of Europe here,
19:24caught with our proverbial pants around our ankles.
19:27Dave Keating, NATO is host to, NATO's headquarters are in Brussels, where you are.
19:36It's got a new Secretary General, the former longtime Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte,
19:41who, when he got the job, was tipped as the guy who knew how to whisper in Trump's ear.
19:48What's he been saying this week? Will he just follow along, or is he making those contingency plans?
19:58Well, he doesn't really look like someone who is whispering in Trump's ear. He looks
20:01more like somebody who is following the orders of Donald Trump. I mean, it was notable to
20:06a lot of people that he suggested this week that in order to solve this impasse from the
20:10Oval Office fight last week that Zelensky needs to apologize to Donald Trump, that basically
20:14it was on the onus of Zelensky to try to repair that relationship. I think there's been a
20:19lot of frustration with Mark Rutte, actually, because he has really towed the American line.
20:25And he doesn't look like he's doing so gladly. He has a kind of Marco Rubio face when he's
20:29having to defend the Trump administration. But he is at the helm of an institution, NATO,
20:35which is American dominated. And so he's not in a very easy position there.
20:39But I don't think anyone here in Brussels is now looking at Mark Rutte as some kind
20:44of savior for Europe. I think his positioning here has kind of made him seem like a bit
20:49of an irrelevance.
20:51And more broadly, Dave, what's the mood right now in Brussels?
20:58Pretty pessimistic, I would say. There isn't huge hope that the summit on Thursday is going
21:04to make huge, huge breakthroughs. So we'll see. I think everyone is quite nervous, quite
21:10scared, kind of in a sense of disbelief. I think that this morning, von der Leyen's press
21:15statement, she was speaking so dramatically about these are unprecedented times. Speaking
21:19of the horrors that might be coming if Europe doesn't get ready. I mean, it was the most
21:23serious language I've heard her use about the situation we're in as of yet. And that
21:28is language I'm hearing from all people right now.
21:31Philip Ingram in London feels like mostly a moment of national unity between the Labour
21:40and the Conservative benches we saw when there was that briefing before Parliament by the
21:45prime minister on Monday. The UK and France are the two countries with the bomb on this
21:53side of the Atlantic. Is it up to that couple to drive things forward?
22:00I'm afraid it is. And it's the UK and France are also both members, permanent members of
22:07the Security Council of the United Nations. So it is up to both countries to stand up
22:12and lead and lead this coalition of the willing. And that's not anything new. Every operation
22:18that we've been involved in over all of the time that I can think of has always been a
22:23coalition of the willing, whether it's under a NATO framework, whether it's under a lead
22:27nation framework, whether it's under something else. So it's easy to think that a lot of
22:33this isn't new. A lot of it isn't. But the new bit is the dynamics of the politics and
22:38the US stepping back. And that's what's causing real anxiety.
22:42Real anxiety. Plus, as you said at the outset, those Kremlin talking points used inside of
22:49the Oval Office, is that ignorance or is there more to it?
22:56It could be one or the other. Trump has got a very junior, senior team. His J.D. Vance
23:04has got no geopolitical experience whatsoever. He walked all over Marco Rubio in the Oval
23:12Office. Pete Hesketh, his defence secretary, has got no experience leading that size of
23:18a department. His new director of national intelligence has got no intelligence experience
23:23whatsoever. Elon Musk, who's running roughshod through every US government department, has
23:28got no governmental experience at all. And therefore, it could be people misinterpreting
23:36and coming out with the wrong language. But then, of course, there are always the rumours
23:40that Trump and Putin are closer in ways that people don't like. And the trouble is, we
23:46just don't know.
23:50Dave Keating, one final question before we wrap this all up. The difference of perspective
23:57when it comes to the war in Ukraine, Ukraine's border much closer to where you and I are
24:04sitting to where they are in the US right now. Is it difficult to explain it to Americans?
24:13It is, yeah. And I think we saw that happen in the Oval Office exchange when Zelensky
24:18said something about, you have an ocean between you, but you will feel this. And Trump reacted
24:22so violently to that saying, don't tell us what we're going to feel. But I can say, I'm
24:26American. And when I speak to the people I know back in my home country, the Ukraine
24:31war has never felt like an urgency for them. It became very much a political divide. If
24:38you were a Democrat, you were supporting Ukraine. If you were a Republican, you weren't. And
24:43it's become such a political issue. And it's really not looked at as some kind of existential
24:49issue about their safety there. It's very, very different to how we look at it here in
24:53Europe.
24:54Dave Keating in Brussels. I want to thank you. I want to thank Philip Ingram in London
24:58for joining us. There's more to come, including the latest reactions to Trump slapping tariffs
25:05on allies Canada and Mexico. Stay with us. You're watching France 24.
25:12France 24.