Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00And we start over at Tampa Bay Downs with the Tampa Bay Derby.
00:04Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs.
00:06They are on the line here.
00:07Let's meet the field.
00:09From the inside, we start with the number one, Owen Almighty.
00:12Now, he comes off a runner-up effort in the Sam F. Davis.
00:16That is the local prep race right
00:18before the Tampa Bay Derby.
00:20And for Owen Almighty, he's been very good in his entire career.
00:24It's really tough to knock his overall body of work.
00:27He's going to make his third start now
00:29of the year after a layoff.
00:31So he should be stepping forward,
00:33getting a little more fit.
00:34Could be set for a big performance.
00:36And in this field, he could get a really nice trip.
00:39It looks like there's a couple that have some speed,
00:41but he also can sit behind horses.
00:43He's not a horse that needs the lead.
00:45So for running styles, he can kind of show speed
00:48or he can sit just behind horses,
00:50I think, and can pass them there.
00:52So that's the one, Owen Almighty,
00:54who will begin the field.
00:56The number two, Chancellor McPatrick.
00:58He was one of the best horses in this age group last year.
01:01So he's a three-year-old now.
01:03He's going to be making his first start as a three-year-old.
01:05He has not raced since the Breeders' Cup
01:08when he was one of the favorites in that race,
01:11but he just didn't run all that well.
01:14The way the track was playing out,
01:15it was playing much better for horses
01:17who have front-running speed.
01:19And that's just not what Chancellor McPatrick is.
01:22That would be my main concern with him in this race.
01:24He's not that fast early,
01:26and it's going to be his first start since November.
01:29So I think they're going to try to get this race
01:33to get him some fitness built up.
01:35And then in his next start,
01:36you could probably expect a better performance from him.
01:39And then maybe even in the Kentucky Derby,
01:41expect him to try to peak and run his best race that day.
01:44It's all kind of a timing thing.
01:46You don't want your horse
01:48or your same thing with the team, right?
01:50You don't want your team to peak too early in the season
01:52and then come playoff time,
01:53and you're just not playing as well as you were.
01:56That's what we need to see here from some of these horses
01:58kind of moving into the Kentucky Derby and those big races.
02:02So Chancellor McPatrick, he'll add the blinkers.
02:05Both the two, Chancellor McPatrick,
02:07and the three, Hill Road,
02:08are both going to be adding the blinkers.
02:11They're both trained by Chad Brown,
02:13and both of them are just not that fast early.
02:16A lot of times when you see a trainer
02:19or some connections add the blinkers,
02:22what that will do is it'll give a horse
02:24a little bit more focus,
02:25and it'll give the horse a little bit more speed.
02:27So that's what I think they're hoping to get
02:29for both Chancellor McPatrick and Hill Road.
02:32A couple thoughts on the number three, Hill Road.
02:35It was very good in his only start on the dirt.
02:37He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
02:40He actually finished in front of Chancellor McPatrick,
02:43who's his stablemate and who was much more
02:46of the kind of the horse to beat in that race.
02:48So Hill Road also adds the blinkers.
02:51Both of these horses will be trying to close late,
02:54and they can just hope that they're not coming
02:56from so far out of it.
02:58The number four, Brodeur.
02:59Kind of the opposite end of the spectrum
03:01when you're talking about running styles.
03:03Brodeur has been impressive in his last two races,
03:06but in both of those races, it's been on a wet track,
03:10and he's been able to pretty much get to the front end
03:12and dictate things.
03:13And I just don't know if he's going to be able
03:15to get those type of circumstances in this particular race,
03:20because Brodeur will have to deal with Owen Almighty,
03:22who's pretty quick early on.
03:24And then to the outside, you have Naughty Rascal,
03:27who's pretty quick early on.
03:28You also have Patch Adams,
03:31who I think is going to be able to sit pretty close.
03:33So with a few other speed horses here,
03:37I just need to see one from Brodeur.
03:39I need to see how good he is
03:41before I'm able to really get excited
03:44about his chances in this particular spot.
03:47So the number five is Filoso,
03:50and Filoso will add the Blinkers.
03:53Now he's, again, just like Chancellor McPatrick
03:56and just like Hill Road.
03:57He's a deep closer who is now going to add the Blinkers,
04:01hoping that the equipment change
04:03can shake him up a little bit
04:05and get him closer in the race early on
04:07so he doesn't have to be so far back,
04:10and he doesn't have to be kind of at the mercy
04:12of everyone else in the race, right?
04:14When you're a deep closer,
04:15you need the horses in front of you
04:17to go really fast and to set it up well for you,
04:20and if that doesn't happen,
04:21you're gonna be in some serious trouble,
04:23and that's what worries me
04:24about a horse like Filoso in here.
04:26Can the Blinkers get him a lot closer?
04:29We'll find out.
04:31We move to Naughty Rascal.
04:33He's the next one to take a look at.
04:35Now, he's one of these horses
04:36who is better than his running lines would suggest.
04:41He's a very honest horse.
04:43He's a fighter.
04:44I just don't know how far he really wants to go.
04:47He's a horse who's run well on turf.
04:49He's run well on dirt.
04:51He's run well over at Tampa Bay Downs,
04:53but he's not a horse who I think
04:56really wants to go farther than a mile,
04:58and this is a race at a mile and a 16th at Tampa Bay Downs,
05:02so what I'm projecting for Naughty Rascal,
05:05I think he's gonna be the type of horse
05:07who shows some early speed,
05:09who's gonna be a part of the early pace,
05:11and I could see him maybe hanging on
05:15for like a third or a fourth in here,
05:17but of a big price, if you're playing trifectas,
05:20if you're playing and looking for bigger prices,
05:23I wouldn't talk you off using him
05:24at the bottom of your exotics,
05:26just like others a little bit more in here
05:28and the trips they might get could be a little kinder
05:31and a little softer than what will happen
05:33for Naughty Rascal.
05:34We round things out with Patch Adams.
05:37Patch Adams is the number seven in here,
05:39and he's raced three times in his career,
05:42and overall, I think he is a horse
05:46who has one of the highest ceilings.
05:47Like if everybody showed up with their A game
05:50and they all ran their best race,
05:52I think Patch Adams would win this race.
05:54What I like about him, he has some speed,
05:58but he can also sit off horses and pass,
06:00and he's shown us some versatility.
06:02I could really see him getting a perfect trip in this race
06:06where it could be Owen Almighty and Brodeur
06:10and Naughty Rascal as three horses
06:13kind of pushing each other early on,
06:15and then Patch Adams could be right behind them,
06:18and he could be right in front of
06:20those three deeper closers,
06:22like Chancellor McPatrick and Hill Road and Filoso.
06:26I'd love to see Patch Adams sitting third
06:29or fourth in this race.
06:30I think he could get a fantastic trip in here.
06:33He's coming off of an effort last time out
06:35in the Southwest.
06:36That was over at Oak Lawn Park,
06:38and he just didn't have a very good start to the race,
06:42so he ended up much farther back than normal,
06:45and he was seventh out of nine horses in that race.
06:48In his first couple starts, he'd been a lot closer,
06:51and he showed us a new dimension.
06:53He showed us that if something goes wrong
06:56and if everything isn't going your way,
06:57he can still overcome that and run well,
07:00and that's what he did last time out
07:01when he finished fourth in the Southwest.
07:03He made a big move into contention.
07:06He was closing very well,
07:09and then he just got a little bit tired late.
07:11That was also his first start going two turns,
07:14his first start going the longer.
07:16I think he's going to have more fitness here,
07:18and I just project him to get a fantastic trip.
07:21He's drawn really, really well.
07:23Patch Adams to the outside
07:25is gonna be the top selection for me.
07:27Now, from a gambling standpoint,
07:29I don't know, price-wise, if he's two to one,
07:34is that a good enough price for you?
07:36I much prefer him to Chancellor McPatrick.
07:38If we can get around five to two or so,
07:41I think I'd be willing to make a win wager on Patch Adams.
07:44I just don't know if you're gonna get a price
07:45that's playable on him,
07:47but I do think he is the horse to beat.
07:49When you look at my selections here,
07:51I'm gonna put Patch Adams on top.
07:53The number seven is my top selection
07:55in the Tampa Bay Derby.
07:57Other horses that I will include
07:59underneath and around this horse.
08:01I did think that Filoso is a horse
08:04with the blinkers coming on,
08:06maybe a little bit of upside
08:07if they try to get him more involved early.
08:10So if you're looking for a price horse,
08:12that could be one that I could include.
08:14You know, Chancellor McPatrick and Owen Almighty,
08:16they're very, very logical in here.
08:18I think they make a whole lot of sense.
08:20They're all going to have to hold off Chancellor McPatrick.
08:22I'm just going to assume that he's a little bit short
08:25in this race and it'll take a couple races
08:27for him to build up his best fitness.
08:29So we'll put the seven Patch Adams on top
08:32in the Tampa Bay Derby.