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00:00I know you've loved to do this. You love to come in and go, all right, what's the expectation in this moment?
00:06But whenever we do that in the regular season, we're not working with a full deck
00:09because we didn't really know exactly how the Western Conference situation was going to play out.
00:14Now we have some facts, two huge facts.
00:18Fact one, the Warriors made the playoffs.
00:21Fact two, they kicked the other team in the shin on their home floor to start the series.
00:27The percentages are very strong that the Warriors will at least be a second-round team this year.
00:33Don't know that they would be, but we certainly, there's no Warrior fan out there
00:38that at this point isn't at least expecting that that should be the bar for the Warriors, second-round team.
00:46All right, so here's the question.
00:48As a Warrior fan, what result would make you feel good?
00:54I don't love the word expectation.
00:57I love more the word that surrounds things like hope.
01:01What result at this point would make you feel good?
01:07Is it ring? Is it finals? Is it Western Conference finals?
01:12Is it like what happened two years ago?
01:15Deep run into round two.
01:18And in six or seven games, you get beat by a team that you really respect.
01:22What results feel good?
01:26I won't go further than that because losing this series would obviously be a disaster at this point.
01:32It's off the table.
01:32I do think it depends a little bit on who they play in the next round.
01:36Even though Minnesota, if they beat the Lakers in whatever amount of games, they would have shown that they're better than the Lakers right now in a series.
01:45And so it doesn't mean that, oh, you play Minnesota, so now you should beat them and you should go to the Western Conference finals.
01:52Or you face the Lakers and, well, you shouldn't beat them, and so you shouldn't go to the Western Conference finals.
01:57So for me, I'm trying to divorce myself from what happens over there, and I'm just looking at what this team is and what they've been with Jimmy Butler and what I see in the bracket and what Vegas and the odds are telling me.
02:11And so if they go into the next round and forget Houston, I mean, they have to beat Houston, obviously.
02:16But if you go in and you lose in six or seven to whomever, for me, that would be okay.
02:22I wouldn't be thrilled, but I would not be dissatisfied.
02:27I would not be looking to blow it up or fire people.
02:29I would understand exactly what had happened.
02:32You're talking about if they go into the next round.
02:35And let's say.
02:36They lose in six or seven.
02:37Right now, like, I believe, I've believed this all along, that the Clippers are better than the Nuggets, and the Clippers have now got home court advantage.
02:45So let's say it's the Clippers and the Warriors and the Clippers.
02:52Or actually, no, that's the other side of the bracket.
02:54My bad, my bad, my bad.
02:55That's the other side of the bracket.
02:57That team's going to Oklahoma City.
02:59Yeah, you mentioned it.
02:59Lakers and Wolves.
03:01But you're saying if it's one of those teams and you get to a game six or a game seven and you get beat, you would still feel, obviously not happy.
03:12No.
03:13But you would feel like, okay.
03:15Right.
03:16Or like, what inflection would you put in your voice?
03:19Probably just that.
03:20Okay.
03:20I mean, okay, I'm not thrilled.
03:22And the next morning, I will come in and be very disappointed.
03:25And then we'll pick through the wreckage of what the season was.
03:28And we'll figure out what needs to be better.
03:30And why didn't you play?
03:31You know who and all the rest of it.
03:33And I'm not going to say it because he's not a factor.
03:36But those things will percolate up if they, in fact, lose and that individual does not play.
03:42And so we can get into those conversations then.
03:45And so, I don't know.
03:47Minnesota is really good.
03:49And the Lakers are a three seed.
03:51So, if the three seed loses to a six, that means the six is pretty good.
03:56No, they're very good.
03:57Yeah, the six is very good.
03:58They're very good.
03:58I'm not convinced at all that they're not better.
04:01Well, we're going to find out.
04:02You know what I mean?
04:03And that's cool.
04:03Their record is one game different.
04:06Right.
04:06And the Warriors are one game different from them.
04:09Right.
04:09So, like, here's one thing that I think in these Western Conference playoffs, you've got to divorce yourself from the little number next to everybody.
04:19Right.
04:19It is pointless.
04:20Except for the one.
04:21Except for the one.
04:22Yeah.
04:22Absolutely.
04:23Absolutely.
04:24And because the eight is, in my opinion, not that good.
04:27I would set them apart.
04:29But these other teams, these other six teams, that is a meaningless little number.
04:35And it's been proven by what we've seen already.
04:37Six beat three on the road.
04:38Seven beat two on the road.
04:40Five went into four.
04:42And damn near took both games, but took one, got their split.
04:47All of the lower-seeded teams have pulled home court advantage away.
04:51And we haven't even played two of the game twos yet.
04:54So, you know, those numbers are pointless.
04:57And there's not much of an upset.
04:59I think I'm with you, but I also think you and I are in the minority.
05:03In other words, if the Warriors get to round two, they make it a series, it's a six or seven gamer, Ant or LeBron or somebody hits a shot, knocks you out, whatever.
05:16Yeah, not, like, thrilled with it.
05:19But when you start backing that thing up to ask, you look good, back that thing up.
05:26When you start asking the questions of, like, was it a good trade?
05:29Where does it leave the franchise?
05:31Sure, there's the automatic disappointment of Steph didn't win his fifth.
05:38And it only gets less likely as he gets older.
05:41I understand all that.
05:43But I don't feel like that would be an embarrassing run, an embarrassing result.
05:50Something that, therefore, made the Jimmy Butler trade something that you wouldn't do if you had to do it.
05:57I don't think any of those things.
05:58I would call it at this point, you lose this round, that's a disastrous turnaround.
06:05Agreed, yep.
06:06If you lose next round, mild disappointment.
06:10Mild disappointment.
06:11If you get to the Western Conference Finals, you have made the Final Four, you're probably going to Oklahoma City, you get what you get, and you don't get upset.
06:23That's kind of how I would break down the Warrior result.
06:26But we certainly, we wonder what you think, because I think we might be in the minority a little bit.
06:32888-957-9570 is the number.
06:35And we'd love to take your calls, in fact, right now.
06:37Because, as we said, Bobby Fitzgerald at three and Steve Kerr at four.
06:42So, you know, we've got some caller roadblocks later in the show.
06:46We'd love to hear from you.
06:48What results to you would feel good?
06:51888-957-9570.
06:54I do think some of it is circumstantial.
06:57And I'm thinking about the last time the Warriors were in this spot, and they needed to go seven to beat Sacramento.
07:02The get on the bus speech, and Curry goes for 50, and you beat the Kings.
07:07And then, two days later, two and a half days, essentially, you have to play the Lakers, a team that was a little bit more rested, and you lost game one.
07:14So, if you're able to beat Houston in five or six, and Minnesota and L.A. go deeper, and you have the rest advantage, well, then, now, for me, it's a little bit of a different expectation.
07:27And I look back at that Laker series, and I understand it.
07:30You lost game one because you were flat tired, and the Lakers were a little bit more rested.
07:35They came here, and they beat you.
07:36You won game two, and then you went to L.A., and you lost game three, and then Lonnie Walker got you in game four.
07:42You're down 3-1, and that's a wrap.
07:43Teams that are down 3-1 don't usually come back and win.
07:46So, circumstantially, that was a little bit of an odd one, and I think about this.
07:51If you're able to take care of Houston the way that it feels like you should, and you have five or six days of rest before game one,
08:00and you go to Minnesota or L.A., and you lose that game, now I have a little bit of a different feel.
08:06Well, I think you just touched on something that, for me, is absolutely a central focus on tomorrow night.
08:13And it may sound disrespectful.
08:16And Steve Kerr, there's no way in hell he'll say on the radio that he would say this to the guys.
08:22But you've got an older group, and you know this.
08:26Man, as you get older in life, different things motivate you.
08:29Oh, boy.
08:30Different things motivate you.
08:31I'm not motivated anymore by how I do in my Madden tournament.
08:36I don't give a rip.
08:37Right.
08:38Right?
08:38I'm 50 years old.
08:40I'm motivated by things sort of like, I don't know, like coffee tomorrow morning.
08:46Yeah.
08:47But positive cholesterol test?
08:49Well, no.
08:50Yeah.
08:5184.
08:52Like, how's the relationship with the kids going?
08:56You know, how many date nights in a month can we fit in?
09:00Like, this is what, you know, how much sleep can I get in a night?
09:03These are the things that motivate you as you get older.
09:06You get an older team.
09:07Are you motivated by that sort of traditional, like, we've got to keep our foot on the gas,
09:13and we've got to let them know, and we've got to have the killer.
09:17Instinct.
09:17These are the things you hear.
09:19I would sit the Warriors down and be like, y'all want some rest?
09:23Who wants rest?
09:25Look how much better you look when you're rested.
09:28So, do you want any rest?
09:31Because tonight, this is how you achieve rest.
09:35And I know I'll never say that because it's super presumptuous, and you just can't do that.
09:41But that is what tomorrow night represents.
09:44Tomorrow night is the opportunity to potentially make this a short series.
09:48And if you go back to 2022 and you look at what they had in terms of rest, they had five days before the Nuggets series.
09:56They won that in five.
09:57Then they had four days before Memphis.
10:00They won that in six.
10:01And they had four days before Dallas.
10:04They won that in five.
10:05And then they had six days before the NBA Finals.
10:07So, you had four different chunks.
10:10And you remember, Steph Curry sat out the last three weeks of the regular year-ish, somewhere in there.
10:17So, there was rest that they built in, and they were a three seed so they could do that.
10:22But then they handled business.
10:24They took care of Denver in five, get a little break.
10:26Memphis in six was a little bit wonky.
10:28But still, Dallas had to go deep against Phoenix.
10:31And so, you got a little extra rest because of Dallas needing more games to beat Phoenix.
10:36And you ended up getting four days there.
10:38And then you got six before the Finals.
10:40All those things, I think, matter.
10:42Yeah.
10:42And if the Lakers have any heart, they win tonight.
10:45And if they win tonight, then that threatens to be a long series.
10:49Absolutely, that one threatens to be a long one.
10:52So, if the Lakers win tonight, and you, the Warriors, can win tomorrow, you are at least threatening to set up that situation to see if you can be done in, say, five or less.
11:05The other one goes six if you're lucky, seven.
11:08And then, yeah, maybe you get a tired squad in game one of the next round.
11:16And, again, I know what it sounds like.
11:18Here we are breaking down round two.
11:20Sure, sure.
11:21God, could we be any more rude?
11:23But I'm simply talking about what this potentially means for tomorrow night.
11:29To me, the pivotal games are the even-numbered games.
11:33This is where you can grab the series and say, this is over.
11:37This is over.
11:38You're not coming back from this.
11:39You're not beating us four times in five tries.
11:41It's not going to happen.
11:42It'd be tough.
11:43And I was looking at some of the numbers of what the pivotal game is.
11:47And if the series is tied at one apiece, the team that wins game three wins 75% of the time.
11:54So, I mean, the even numbers, you're right.
11:56Because if the Warriors win this, is Houston going to win four out of five?
11:59Probably not.
12:00But if a series is one-all, like Denver and the Clippers, well, game three becomes almost everything.
12:05Right, but that's kind of the similar percentage of game one, right?
12:08Like, those odd-numbered games, yes, you take a lead.
12:13The other team's allowed to come and just get it right back, you know?
12:15Didn't the Kings get games one and two a couple years ago?
12:19And then the Warriors just like, you know, and maybe this actually kind of blows my point
12:24because the Warriors are special.
12:26Right.
12:26But, like, they came back and just held their serve at home.
12:29That's the other part of it is that they're doing this on the road.