The 2023 NFL Regular Season is finally upon us! The New England Patriots host the Philadelphia Eagles in week 1 and Mac Jones and company will have their hands full. Will the new Patriots offensive players stand out, or will the offseason woes for the offensive line continue against the vaunted Eagles defensive front? Will the New England defense continue to perform at an elite level?
Alec and Rich cover it all.
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Alec and Rich cover it all.
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SportsTranscript
00:00 All right, here we are. Week one, Patriots first and goal. I am Alex Shane here with my good buddy
00:06 Rich Hill, putting the preseason and the offseason officially behind us and getting ready to launch
00:12 into week one of the NFL starting tonight with Chiefs, Lions, a lot to get through. We haven't
00:19 talked in a while, Rich Hill, since the Patriots did their whole finalized roster thing, so we
00:23 have to kind of catch up on some slacking we've been doing in our analysis, but it's nice to break
00:27 it down with you, man. How are you? Doing well, dude. Very, very excited for the season to actually be here.
00:32 I feel like the time between maybe the second preseason, because the third preseason, whatever, the
00:38 fact that like not a lot of starters are playing this year, they were trying to keep them safe,
00:42 the time between the second preseason game and opening kickoff feels very long for some reason.
00:48 Maybe it's because it's three preseason games instead of four, but it's more where I've just been
00:52 ready. I've been ready to see who is going to play. There's been a lot of new faces introduced
00:58 to the Patriots offense. I'm excited for that. I'm excited for Bill O'Brien, what he has in store.
01:02 Less excited for some other parts of it. We'll go into that as well, but Alec, how are you doing?
01:08 I'm doing well. It's always kind of bittersweet when football season starts. Obviously, I'm very
01:13 excited to ignore my friends and family every Sunday for Patriots football, but it also means
01:17 that summer's over and that 2.30 p.m. sunset is right around the corner and there's a lot of
01:23 doldrums and coldness coming my way. It also means spooky season's coming, the holidays are coming,
01:28 some fun stuff for the end of the year. I will try to look on the bright side of what's happening
01:32 the next couple of months, starting with what I think a very interesting end of preseason,
01:38 we should call it. We'll go first down. It's first and goal, Rich Hill. We haven't talked
01:42 to the Patriots roster as it sits right now. We prognosticated all offseason. We figured who's
01:46 going to get cut, who's not, who's going to have the strongest group, who's not going to have the
01:49 strongest group. We're sitting here with a team of Patriots who maybe some folks saw coming,
01:55 some folks didn't. I personally am a little surprised at a number of the moves they made,
02:00 less so with some other moves they made. Looking at the roster top to bottom as they head into
02:04 week one against the Eagles and beyond, how are you feeling overall? What's your confidence level
02:08 in the roster now the final cuts are done? Yeah, I mean, my confidence is pretty strong
02:12 in the defense. They are what we thought they would be. The players that are active are going
02:16 to be there. Anyone that gets activated later on looking at you, Trey Flowers, I will consider to
02:21 be a total bonus, but there were no real surprises on that front. I am looking forward to them
02:27 bringing what they have been bringing to the table for the past six seasons or so, or they're going
02:31 to be one of the top five defenses in the league. I have full faith in their ability on that one.
02:36 The offensive side of the ball, there's been a lot more question marks. Matt Corral being the only
02:41 their quarterback of the Mac Jones on the roster with Baltimore Cunningham and Bailey Zappi moving
02:46 on to the practice squad, only having two running backs on the roster with Ramon J. Stevenson and
02:51 Ezekiel Elliott, two more running backs on the practice squad, Ty Montgomery and Kevin Harris
02:56 and the Patriots trade away Pierre Strong for an offensive tackle. And they've elevated Farrow
03:03 Brown, who was like a half a day on the practice squad before they brought him up to the main
03:06 roster. But I think that there will still be some movement taking place on the Patriots roster
03:12 heading into the actual game itself, because I would be shocked if they went into the first game
03:18 with actually just two running backs on the roster. It's just so funny, man. We were all
03:22 talking all offseason. What a deep group that is and how much strength they have and how much
03:27 versatility they have with Ramon J. Stevenson, Inc. as the number one back with Damian Harris
03:31 departing. They're going to have Pierre Strong. I see the third down back is Ty Montgomery,
03:35 finally going to be the one that emerges that third down back role. He looked at the potential
03:38 he had, and then everyone's gone traded practice squad and incomes. Incomes Ezekiel Elliott. And
03:45 right now it is Ramon J. Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott, probably driving fantasy over owners
03:49 crazy. And if we are right, which which is a rarity around these parts, I have to admit,
03:54 but if we are right and the Patriots 2023 offense goes on the ground, it is a run first team behind
04:02 a solid offensive line and a versatile running back core. How are they going to do it with the
04:08 offensive line being what it is and with just Zeke and Ramond J. in the backfield? Maybe Ty Montgomery,
04:14 maybe they bring somebody else in, but how do they kind of have that ball control offense with only
04:18 two running backs? I'm not I just don't see it. Totally. They need to have more bodies back there.
04:22 I would be shocked if someone like Ty Montgomery or Kevin Harris were not elevated at some point.
04:28 I'm sure it's still roster management at this stage, but after a couple of elevations,
04:32 they have to stay on the roster and there's not a chance that the Patriots only have two running
04:36 backs. I don't think they've ever done that in the Bill Belichick era. Usually they have four
04:39 players on the roster, so there will be movement. But the more important thing for the Patriots
04:45 rushing attack and the overall success of their offense is the offensive line.
04:49 And right now, health notwithstanding, the fact that Trent Brown is banged up,
04:53 the fact that Cole Strange and Michael and Wayne who are banged up, David Andrews is the only
04:57 player on this roster that has both their health and starting experience for the New England
05:03 Patriots. You look at that right tackle spot. Who is it? Who is it? We went into this offseason and
05:08 I believed in the process. I still don't think it's a bad idea is that they said, you know what?
05:13 We're not going to have the money to pay for a free agent right tackle. Mike McClinchie is
05:17 going to cost way too much for us to be able to afford. So therefore, let's get us five different
05:24 tier three offensive tackles. If we can get league average ability out of any of them,
05:28 that's fine. The rest of the offensive line is going to be league average or better,
05:33 and therefore all five of them together means that that is going to be one of the better
05:36 offensive lines in the league for week one. That might not be true with a way new and strange and
05:41 Brown all banged up, give it half a season and for them to get into their rhythm could still be the
05:46 case. But when Mike Connor McDermott, who was my water line, you know he was the one that like if
05:53 he plays, he did better than I thought last year, even with Matt Patricia leading the offense line,
05:58 I thought McDermott was solid. He was my threshold. If he was what we got out there,
06:02 they'd be okay. If any of the four other players that they brought on board were going to be better,
06:08 then that would be just, you know, the cherry on top, but McDermott inactive right now,
06:13 he's currently dealing with an injury. Riley reef currently dealing with an injury.
06:17 Patriots had to go out. Uh, you know, Calvin Anderson was another one of them. He just
06:21 returned to practice after spending the entire off season away from the team with an illness.
06:25 They had to go and acquire two other players, the Darien low and Tyrone Wheatley jr. Who have
06:30 potential, who have potential. Don't get me wrong, but there are of that similar threshold. There
06:34 are that similar bucket of, they might be okay. I don't know. Are they going to be at that same
06:40 level of Connor McDermott? I'm not going to count on our week one, but that remains the biggest
06:44 question mark that they have not answered this entire off season. And quite frankly,
06:49 could be the biggest issue over the first quarter of the season.
06:52 I mean, look, I don't think it's any kind of deep dive and NFL analytics to say a team rises and
06:58 falls with the offensive line. And the question we've been asking all off season, especially
07:02 during the preseason, as it reared, it's ugly head was who's going to be protecting everybody
07:07 back there. Maybe that's why they only have two quarterbacks on the roster right now. Rich Hill,
07:11 they're just trying to be humanitarian when people get sacked left and right. But look, I mean,
07:15 I think, I think I said it in our last podcast, it's like fantasy. If you have six running backs
07:19 on your roster, you have no running backs on your roster. I'm glad they've collected a bunch of them,
07:24 but hopefully the wheat will separate from the chaff very soon because that is not a unit.
07:27 You can spend too much time shuffling around, particularly with the early schedule that
07:32 Patriots have coming their way, especially the Eagles, their defensive front, which we're going
07:35 to talk about in a little bit. One more point about the roster is before we move on to the
07:39 actual football stuff. Another group we talked about a lot in our preseason analytics was the
07:44 wide receiver group and how many guys were doing well, what a fierce competition that was going to
07:49 be when all of a sudden done, who's going to make it, who's not. We have Kendrick Bourne,
07:54 Kehshaun Boutte, Demario Douglas, Devontae Parker, and Juju Smith-Schuster with Matthew Slater,
07:58 of course, as a special teams ace. They IR'd Tyquan Thornton, IR'd Trey Nixon. Any, any
08:05 surprises there or pretty much shake out the way you thought it would? Kind of went the way I
08:10 thought. I mean, Tyquan Thornton is the player who I had hoped would have been able to make the
08:15 roster, but he, I mean, quite frankly, was outplayed by Boutte and Douglas, and that's not a bad thing.
08:20 Like, obviously it's not a good use of your team's capital if your second round wide receivers
08:25 continue to not make the team because they're not good. But, you know, he got banged up on
08:30 probably his best play of the off season and Boutte and Douglas have just been lights out.
08:34 Boutte got a lot of opportunities as the starting lineup, starting receivers were dealing with
08:38 injuries over the course of the off season. He really took advantage of all of it and Douglas'
08:42 hands have just spent great the entire off season, great route runner showing ability to get
08:46 separation against the top players. And so I believe that the Patriots have the best wide
08:51 receivers they could have heading into camp, actually making the roster. And you just look at
08:56 their ultimate upside, like, you know, take pro football focus for what you will. Douglas was
09:01 their top rated wide receiver of the entire class. Impossibly, I don't remember the exact
09:07 like statistic or timeframe, but he's been one of their best rated college receivers ever. So I
09:12 think that he has a lot of potential on that one. And then you just look at the stats, right? Like
09:16 at LSU, Boutte was putting up numbers that were like, you look at the other wide receivers that
09:20 have the same stats for him at LSU. And it's like, here's Justin Jefferson, here's Odell Beckham,
09:26 and here's Jamar Chase, and here's Boutte. And it's just like, that's good company. That's good
09:31 company. I'll buy that. I'll buy it right now. And so if these two players live up to their
09:35 potential, their potential ability, the fact that Devante Parker is dealing with a little bit of
09:40 injuries, this receiver room could be set for a while. I think Juju Smith-Schuster has a lot of
09:45 ability. I think Kendrick Bourne's on a very team friendly contract and he'll actually have an
09:49 opportunity this year to really elevate his play. All of the, you know, scuttle coming out of the
09:55 off season that he's been working on is blocking and that he's going to be able to contribute more
09:58 than he has in the past. He has a lot more trust in the coaching staff. So I think that this is a
10:03 really strong receiver room. Very excited to see what they do. I don't know if there's a thousand
10:07 yard receiver in the room, but I think that they have, you know, four or five receivers out there
10:11 that could put up, you know, 600 plus yards and that's not bad. No, it's not. Again, I don't think
10:16 we need a thousand yard receiver room for the Patriots to do well. If they can have several
10:20 600 yard receivers and they spread the ball around a lot, great. And hopefully they will run the ball
10:25 a lot. Again, the good thing about their backfield as it sits right now, and I think you're absolutely
10:29 right. Ty Montgomery will get elevated or somebody. They can all catch passes. And you made
10:33 a really good point about the NFL kind of shifting away from the running back that pure kind of
10:38 between the tackles, smash mouth, Adrian Peterson, Walter Payton kind of guy where you need to not
10:43 know if this running back's on the field, they're probably running it. And when this guy's on the
10:48 field, they're probably passing it. So with the passing game being what it is, with the running
10:52 game being what it is, with the offensive line being what it is, it might be a really quick
10:55 release offense coming out. No, it's not a lot of time coming forward. So you don't need those
10:59 down the field, deep threats, and every Patriots receiver can do that. Hopefully can get open once
11:04 the game starts to matter. Speaking of the game starting to matter, Rich Hill, unless you have
11:08 any good transition, let's do this. It is second goal week run. First one. I get to say this. We're
11:14 going around the league. Oh, yeah. Twenty three underway, starting off with, in my personal
11:18 opinion, a bit of an oddity. The defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs, to hoist their second
11:24 trophy against the vaunted Detroit Lions. Usually it's a much more kind of marquee matchup. It's an
11:32 AFC championship rematch or it's some kind of head to head rivalry game. I like the Lions. I've
11:37 always enjoyed the Lions since the Barry Sanders days. Chiefs are always a blast to watch, but I'm
11:41 a little confused as to why the NFL picks some of the particular games they slated for this week
11:45 one matchups. Yeah, I agree. This is a weird one, man. Like you look at the schedule. There's some
11:52 games that you feel like theoretically should make sense as a, you know, OK, marquee matchup.
11:59 There's a lot of divisional games. You got Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Colts, you got Raiders,
12:04 Broncos, Packers, Bears, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Giants and Bills and the new Aaron Rodgers led
12:10 Jets. So like those exist. I don't know if I'm pumped about any of them. Like, I mean, Monday
12:16 night football, as you mentioned, Bills at Jets like Aaron Rodgers. I see that. That's that's an
12:20 interesting one to capstone it with. But Lions at Chiefs. I don't know. I don't know. Like it's
12:28 a interconference play. That's one of the only ones out there. You got Titan Saints, 49ers,
12:33 Steelers and some of the other ones. And it's just like, you know, Patriots, Eagles as well.
12:37 It's more just like, I guess, are people really that into the Lions? I'm not sure. You know,
12:44 people are like high on them, which great. Sure. I mean, absolutely. No reason not to be. But
12:49 for that to be the opening game, it feels a little weird. Feels a little weird to me.
12:54 No, no, it does. Again, maybe it's because they're expecting some kind of slow start to
12:58 the season and that want to, quote unquote, waste a big game. But I feel like the first game of the
13:02 season, everyone is just so starved for football. They're tuning in no matter what. Maybe there was
13:07 a very strong push politically for the Lions to get more primetime games. I don't know. Whatever
13:12 it is, I think Chiefs win that one easily, even if Travis Kelsey can't go. He's listed as questionable.
13:16 The most intriguing matchup for me, Rich, for obvious reasons, is Bill's Jets. It's an AFC East
13:20 matchup. It's at New York. It's Aaron Rodgers' first debut against the Bills as a Jet. Primetime
13:27 game. I'll be very curious to see how this shakes out. I personally am of the belief the Jets are
13:32 going to start off really hot and then turn into the New York Jets and fizzle down the stretch.
13:36 So maybe the Jets come away with a win here and the league catches on fire. The Bills are done.
13:41 The window's closed. Josh Allen hates his coach. All that stuff. But do you see the Bills pulling
13:46 off an upset? Is it even an upset in the Middlelands? Not at all. The Bills are absolutely
13:53 going for the Bills on this one. I think that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets had the makings of
14:00 all the great teams. I get the match. It's their first game. I think that the Bills are... This is
14:05 their last year of their window in my mind with their current cohort. They can always reload.
14:10 They can always get back. But I feel like with this, that Stefan Diggs at his peak with a lot
14:15 of the core of the defense, I kind of feel like this is the last ride that they can do together.
14:19 Not that they'll be bad, but I think that they have a lot going for them this season. And I
14:24 wouldn't be surprised if this was the year that they pulled it off, knocked off the Bengals and
14:29 the Chiefs en route to the Super Bowl. Wouldn't be surprised by that. And I think that Aaron Rodgers
14:34 can only do so much for a Jets team that will always Jets. And so I am looking for a pretty
14:41 solid Bills win, even if maybe he gets competitive towards the end. But I kind of feel like the Bills
14:46 are going to win this one running away. I hope so. Just because I will never not like... I'll
14:51 never like the Jets ever. And I always really enjoy it because there have been seasons in the
14:55 past. There's all this hype going through the season and Jets fans are so excited. This is the
15:00 year we finally get in and then they just get slapped right in their big fat face. And it's
15:05 always fun to watch. Not that I'm super into enjoying the misery of others, but there's
15:10 something about watching the Jets get beat up every year that just sounds very therapeutic for me.
15:13 Besides Patriots-Eagles, we'll talk about on third and fourth down, any other particular
15:18 matchups this week you're intrigued by? Maybe 49ers-Steelers, Raiders-Broncos,
15:23 any other game you're excited to watch? Yeah, I mean, 49ers-Steelers has the makings of an
15:28 interesting game. I think you have a team like the Steelers that their first team offense scored
15:32 a touchdown on every single drive. Is Kenny Pickett the guy? Potentially, I could see that
15:36 being the case. And the 49ers have a lot. They've invested a lot. They just gave Bosa an enormous
15:42 contract. And so is he going to deliver on it? Can the entire team elevate a round and carry
15:47 Brock Purdy? Potentially, I can see that. I think that has like an interesting narrative relative
15:52 to a lot of the other teams. But the matchup that I am looking forward to masochistically,
15:58 Raiders-Broncos. I want to see the Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh McDaniels-led Raiders team.
16:03 I think they have a lot of really good pieces on that offense to pull it all together. I think
16:07 that McDaniels has his guy. He has his receivers. They have their players. The Broncos are going
16:13 through the Sean Payton experience. Will Russell Wilson rebound? Can he be the player that was like
16:18 en route to the Hall of Fame before he went to the Broncos? I mean, he was doing that type of a
16:22 career. If he nosedives for the rest of his time at the Broncos, he might just remain Hall of Very
16:27 good. But if he can find his other ability, then perhaps we're talking about another Hall of Fame
16:31 career. And so I'm very interested to see what this will look like. Again, obviously super early in
16:36 the season. So a lot to digest and things that can change over the course of the season. But hey,
16:42 week one, that's pretty good a narrative as it goes. No, it is. I think the AFC East and West
16:48 are the two most intriguing divisions in football this year. Who knows who's going to come out of
16:53 either one of them. There's obvious favorites in both divisions, probably Super Bowl contenders
16:57 in both divisions, but you never know about these teams that are well revamped and well ready to go.
17:02 Maybe it's looking to improve on some disappointments last season, much like the
17:06 Patriots, Rich Hill. So let's get to the Patriots Eagles game third and fourth down coming up.
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17:42 FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. All right, third and goal, Rich Hill Patriots Eagles this
17:49 Sunday 425 PM. I'm very excited for this one. It is Tom Brady day in New England. It's the home
17:57 opener. There should be a lot of excitement around this Eagles, obviously one of the best teams in
18:01 the NFL. They were the NFC representatives last year. Both teams have a lot to prove.
18:07 Very intriguing mashup. I'm glad it's happening in week one versus week nine or 10. You and I
18:13 differ on this in our pre-podcast talk, but I think it's a good thing the Patriots and the
18:16 Eagles early because there's a lot of things that we don't know about just yet. But for third and
18:21 goal, Rich, let's start off with the Patriots defense up against this Eagles offense. Jalen
18:28 Hertz, one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He's a, as electric factory, the page have
18:33 struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks. They've been decent against the run, not great
18:38 against the run. They're a very good defense. If the page are to win this game, they got to keep
18:42 it close. Can't let the Eagles get any major chunk plays. So what's your initial breakdown?
18:48 Pat's the verse Eagles zone knowing what we know right now. Yeah. I mean, it's the strengths going
18:52 against one of the strengths of the Eagles. Like obviously they were the reigning NFC champs. I
18:57 think that they have a very, very strong team, a very, very strong roster. There are some weak
19:02 points. You know, I think with the Patriots defense, they're pretty strong across the board.
19:07 They have some room for improvement against the run. I think got shot has a little bit more to
19:13 offer to the team than he has thus far, but I'm looking for a Christian bar more to take the leap
19:17 this year. I think he elevated his play a lot last year, but I'm hoping for him to become a
19:20 household name. I also want to see Keon white really start contributing on that defensive front,
19:25 but with this Patriots team, you know what you're going to get. I think that they're going to be a
19:30 disciplined team. I think that they're going to make sure that Jalen hurts doesn't beat them on
19:34 the ground and force the Philadelphia Eagles to win through the air, which they can do.
19:38 They have Devonta Smith and AJ Brown, two of the best receivers in the league, one of the best
19:43 receiver duos that you can find. So I think that they is, they're going to have their hands full.
19:48 If Christian Gonzalez and Jack Jones are the two starters on the outside,
19:51 they're going to be very busy. I'm not sure how the Patriots are going to defend them one-on-one
19:56 if you even can. And so they're going to try and just put in disguises, make it as difficult as
20:00 possible for Jalen hurts, even though he has the ability to sit back, go through his reads and find
20:05 the right receiver. And if I'm the Patriots though, I'm going to make sure that this Eagles team with
20:08 their very, very strong offensive line does not dictate the pace of the game on the ground,
20:15 because if that's the case, Patriots won't be able to keep up. And I think that the Patriots
20:20 best chance is to force Jalen hurts to go through the air, force a couple of turnovers and hope that
20:24 Max Jones and the offense can be average enough in order to kind of take the game as a steel.
20:30 But I think the big game comes down to how can the Patriots force Jalen hurts to go through the air
20:35 instead of on the ground. So the whole bill Belichick take away their best weapon type of
20:40 strategy is to eliminate the run game and force them to beat them through the air, which of course
20:45 will dictate the offense being on the field a lot more if they're able to do that. Yeah, totally.
20:51 And I think the big challenge that they have is that Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, they have
20:56 a lot of talent out there. This is will be one of the better offensive lines that they play all year.
21:01 I think across the league, there's only a couple that I would consider to be outright better than
21:06 the Eagles. And so the Patriots are going to have their hands full. They're going to have some new
21:10 faces playing in their defensive front in the rotation. I think you're on key on white being
21:15 introduced into the rotation, perhaps Mopu being introduced in the rotation. But in general,
21:19 the Patriots benefit from having a lot of consistency. Judon is going to be out there.
21:24 Uche is going to be out there. You're going to have the bar more guy and a Godshaw group out
21:28 there on that defensive front at Guale as a pass rusher as well. You have a lot of familiar faces.
21:33 Patriots have talked about this offseason where, you know, even losing Devin McCourty,
21:37 there's a lot of experience that they can rely on. And so this is going to be the Patriots best
21:41 chance of winning. It's going to be their strength going against the Eagles strength.
21:45 My X factor is going to be that defensive front. It's going to be bar more. I think he has the most
21:50 upside of everyone on that defensive line specifically, not considering the edge with
21:54 Judon and if bar more is able to disrupt on the interior force, Jalen hurts to go to the outside
22:00 of the pocket where all the other players are still going to have to do their job. We're still
22:04 looking at Adrian Phillips and Jabril peppers as those speedy linebacker safety hybrids to clean
22:09 up the mess on the outside. But if bar more is able to have a big day on that defensive interior,
22:15 I think in Kelsey's dealing with injury as well. If the Patriots are able to be disruptive up the
22:18 middle, make it so Dale hurts can't get into a rhythm, make it so there's no easy running place.
22:24 That's the Patriots path to victory. Yeah. I mean, I think it's all going to start up front for sure.
22:29 I'm going to go the other way though. I think my defensive X factor is going to be for a lot
22:32 of reasons, Christian Gonzalez. It's his NFL debut. He's probably going to be at times one-on-one
22:39 against either AJ Brown or Devante Smith. Both thousand-round receivers last year.
22:43 So talking about trial by fire being thrown to the lions, it is your first ever NFL real game.
22:48 And you have two elite receivers. You're going to be up one-on-one against, could be a real
22:52 confidence game for him. If he's able to shut these guys down, make some plays, but if he gets
22:56 smoked up and down the field, the mental toughness will come into play and see how he was able to
23:01 rebound from that, to be going up against, against such a strong offensive, offensive weapons,
23:05 particularly to your point, rich, they really forced the Eagles to pass and tempt hurts to
23:09 throw it out there, leaving them on an island. I imagine Smith will need some health help.
23:14 Maybe there's some safety help. Maybe just kind of bracket coverage here,
23:17 leaving the front seven on an island without the secondary to come back up and maybe play in like
23:21 that kind of Kyle Duggar, Adrian Phillips hybrid role. We will soon see, but I think it's a really
23:26 important day for the secondary because the offensive line is stout and it might take some
23:31 time to sack Jalen Hurts, not only because he's mobile and able to evade the sack, but the
23:36 prospect is fantastic. So can the Patriots secondary cover this passing game for four or
23:41 five, six seconds? I don't know. Yeah. And like the big challenge too,
23:45 we've only talked about two of the receivers Dallas. Godera is one of the best tight ends
23:49 in the entire league and they have some pretty talented running back coming out of the backfield.
23:53 Deandre Swift is one of those, uh, you know, often injured, but when available, pretty reliable as a
23:58 pass catcher. So even if you're able to force hurts to not throw it to his top two receivers,
24:03 there's still players there that can do a lot of damage to you. The Patriots are going to need a lot
24:08 of really outstanding play from their safeties. Uh, I think that more than ever, they have a very
24:13 crucial role in particular in the Patriots defense with their ability to cover in the slot, cover
24:18 deep, cover the tight ends, cover the running backs, put their spy on Jalen hurts. This is
24:22 going to be a very hard game for them. I do think it starts up front with them winning in the
24:26 trenches, but the safeties will also have to have really, really strong games for the Patriots,
24:29 even have a chance. Let's talk trenches, Roach, make some defensive Patriots prop bets. Close out
24:35 third down. I'm going to go with two and two sacks and turnovers. The Patriots generate you taking
24:41 the over the under for either, uh, two sacks, two turnovers. Correct. Great question. So I think that
24:46 they're going to, uh, not force to interceptions. I think that, uh, you know, fumbles that's more
24:52 random. I don't feel great about that one, but Eagles last year, very, very good at protecting
24:57 the football. Hurts only had six interceptions over the entire season. So he does a very good
25:02 job of protecting that, uh, as it relates to sacks going for the over, uh, he had 38 sacks last year.
25:09 I think that even though they are very strong offensive line, you know, mobile quarterbacks
25:15 will get sacked. Uh, just the nature of the game with them scrambling and he tackled down the line
25:20 of scrimmage. Patriots have the speed at that second level. If Mopu is able to go, that's great.
25:25 If, uh, not from a health perspective, but just from like a, you know, does he win time on the
25:29 field peppers and Phelps, you know, they have the speed and ability to be able to take hurts down
25:33 on the backfield. So I'm going for the over on the sacks under for interceptions. I'm not expecting
25:38 two interceptions fumbles. I don't feel great about even doing that. So I would just take the
25:42 under overall for, for force turnovers. All right. Over two sacks. I will gladly take because a
25:47 number of times I've seen quarterbacks just run around in circles back there before completing
25:50 these deep passes downfield, uh, drives me absolutely nuts. But yeah, I mean, I think
25:54 that is a strength versus strength, the defense versus the offense, Patriots versus the Eagles.
25:58 Uh, the patient can keep it close defensively, give the offense plenty of opportunities to
26:02 generate points and move the ball down the field. Uh, could be a good game, which leads us to
26:07 fourth down Rich Hill, fourth and goal Patriots offense Eagles defense. This is the real question
26:12 mark. In my opinion, I have absolutely no clue what to expect from this offensive unit based on
26:19 what I've seen so far. There are so many things that are still completely unknown to me. I
26:24 do think it's going to be a ground game battle between the Patriots and the Eagles defense,
26:28 but that's a very, very stout defensive front. We're going up against, uh, New England. I don't
26:33 know if, if, if, if I'm like in a perfect world, is it a scenario where I would Belichick would
26:39 want to pass a lot more? Probably, uh, this deal was among the Eagles deal was among the best in
26:43 football just a year ago. Uh, but it wasn't great against the run. Uh, I think they allowed about
26:48 120 so yards per game, um, and about, about five yards per carry over the 2022 season. So, uh,
26:55 establishing the run is really going to be important, but again, it all comes back to
26:58 that offensive line. So, uh, how are your early thoughts on this page is offensive,
27:02 the Eagles defensive front. Uh, not great. Great about it. Uh, you look at kind of like
27:10 the strength on strength, uh, this defensive line is going to live in Mac Jones's nightmares.
27:18 You look at the talent that they have at defensive tackle. They have Fletcher Cox,
27:23 Jordan Davis, and Jalen Carter. They have three, like very, like two very high upside Cox has been
27:28 one of the best defensive players in all of football for the past decade, but you have two
27:33 very good young, enormous tackles out of university of Georgia. So they are big, they are strong.
27:39 They are stout up the middle, David Andrews. And, uh, we talked about this before the show,
27:45 uh, Cole strange and Michael Wayne with two weeks of practice are going to be pretty busy
27:50 and it's not going to be easy. They're not going to get help from the outside because you got Derek
27:55 Barnett, Brandon Graham, and Josh sweat coming from the outside. You have three very strong
28:00 veteran pass rushers that are able to get after the quarterback. And so Patriots are going to
28:06 have to a hope that Trent Brown is ready to go. In addition to Cole strange and Michael Wayne,
28:11 all three players are dealing with injuries. And then that right tackle spot that we talked
28:16 about at the top of the show, who is it? I have no idea. Is it going to be Calvin Anderson?
28:21 Cool. I mean, coaches seem to love them. They think he has a lot to bring to the table.
28:24 He hasn't practiced this off season. Is it going to be Tyrone Wheatley jr. Who's a new face to the
28:29 team? He's one of, you know, a highly rated offensive tackle, but, uh, a week and a half
28:34 in the team system. Don't feel great about that. Same with Vardarian low. And then the, what little
28:38 we saw out of city. So, uh, did not feel great. I feel like I'd rather take my chances on the other,
28:44 like the new faces than what we saw during the preseason with him on the right tackle spot,
28:48 because that was just brutal. And so, uh, the biggest X factor for the Patriots very easily
28:54 is that offensive line. And, uh, as I said, don't feel great about it.
28:59 This may be the first time in our podcast history ritual, where an X factor is literally a player.
29:05 I don't know the name of the guy who's going to be starting in that position. It's about as X
29:09 factor as an X factor. What's the name of the person? I have no idea who that is. Um, don't
29:16 like that one bit, but you're not wrong at all. I mean, uh, luckily it's the right tackle, not the
29:21 left tackle. I'd be a lot more nervous if there was no name of the left tackle, but still, uh,
29:26 your book ends of your offensive line. You should at least buy two days or three days before the
29:30 season starts, you know, the hell that is. Um, but them's the breaks. Uh, I think along those lines,
29:38 I think we'll get a lot of, of kind of game tape and understanding about the tight end position
29:44 this week. So I'm gonna go with, uh, the tight end room, probably more Mike Gusecki than Hunter
29:48 Henry prime, a good Mike Gusecki game. Uh, he's not really a blocking tight end. He's really more
29:53 of a big receiver and a red zone target, but I feel like this is the kind of game that would
29:57 be really, really well for a tight end to line up close to the line, motion out motion, the back
30:02 field, create an outlet, create a mismatch. This could be a good Gusecki game. And hopefully he
30:06 in Scots himself as a, a go-to outlet receiver for Mac Jones. I'll be curious to see if Hunter
30:11 Henry spends a lot of time lined up on the right side of the line next to whoever the hell starting
30:15 at right tackle. So I think we'll get a lot of game tape on the tight ends, this, this game coming
30:19 up against the Eagles and we'll see how that kind of, they're going to manipulate themselves.
30:22 Uh, I feel like a sack. He's prime for a good game. I'd also, I was really tempted, which I'm
30:27 not going to lie. I was tempted to really go out on a limb. My first ever X factor and think the
30:32 paint, they're going to call up Jalen Rager from the practice squad as this running weird jet sweep
30:38 kind of edge rusher, a running back hybrid guy. Cause he's kind of the guy that actually burned
30:42 the Eagles last year plays like that. Uh, I don't think he'll get called up, but if he does,
30:47 he could have an impact. Yeah. I mean, Patriots need to find it wherever they can.
30:52 All history points to the Patriots trying to do the quick passing attack when their offensive line
30:57 isn't strong. Historically, that would go to James white or, you know, Shane Marine or whichever
31:02 running back is they're receiving back, which they currently don't have on the roster. So a no idea
31:08 who that's going to be. Will they compensate by making it a quick passing game with the receivers?
31:12 That's my guess. I could see this being a big game for a lot of yards after the catchability.
31:18 Kendrick Bourne is that guy. I think Juju Smith Schuster will have a little bit of time to adjust
31:23 into the Patriots offense, especially as you've been dealing with the injury. But Parker's the
31:26 possession guy on the outside. It's not a yak guy. That's where Kendrick Bourne comes in. I could see
31:32 them drawing up a lot of quick passing plays for him to kind of worm his way down the field.
31:36 Uh, but if the Patriots are going to do any damage on offense, it's going to be attacking this Eagle
31:41 secondary because that's where the air quote weaknesses. And it's not even like a full air
31:45 quote, but like it is, it's a, uh, you have Darius slain James Bradbury who are, you know, one of the
31:51 best cornerback duos that you can get out there. Bradbury had a good resurgence last year. Uh, and
31:56 then slay is, you know, I mean, just predominantly one of the best cornerbacks in the entire league.
32:00 Um, you have some good safeties out there as well. Um, but when it comes to who is, uh, you know,
32:06 the quarterback number three, that becomes a little bit more of a question mark. So I think
32:11 that the Patriots best bet is the quick passing game, but to try and spread out the Eagles,
32:15 make it so they can't just bunch up in the middle of the field.
32:18 Ramond, Tracy, and his Dekele Elliott will have a lot of, uh, blocking support that they'll have
32:22 to do before they leak out into, uh, you know, on whatever routes that they're going to be running.
32:27 But that's probably the Patriots best chance for success is the quick passing plays, whether it's
32:32 trips, formations, other bunches, things like that is to get the ball as quickly as they can
32:36 to the receiver. So Mack Jones doesn't wind up with 30 sacks on the day. All right. That's a
32:40 good transition. Some prop bets for you, Rich Hill for the Patriots offense. Uh, we'll talk
32:44 about first, we'll talk about Mack Jones sacks, four sacks for Mack Jones, take the over under
32:49 and seven different Patriots catch a pass over under there.
32:53 Ooh, I like that. Um, I'm going to go, uh, with the over for the sacks. I, I see it being, uh,
33:01 you know, a five sack kind of a day. Uh, it's not going to be pretty that I, I do not feel
33:08 great about this. I, we talked about this. If you give this to week six, where Cole strange
33:13 has a couple months back after his injury. If Michael and Wayne, who has a couple of months
33:17 in practice, remember he missed a lot of the off season with a surgery. If Trent Brown has more
33:21 time after he missed a lot of off season with, uh, whatever he was dealing with and whoever is
33:26 at right tackle gets a couple of weeks with the team, nevermind in the lineup. I would feel a lot
33:32 better about their ability to protect Mack Jones right now. You're just rolling a dice bag and
33:37 hoping that they're going to be able to be at least average. And even if they're average, the
33:42 Eagles led the league in the sacks last year, I believe so that it's one of the most ferocious
33:46 units against any offensive line, nevermind a sieve. And so I'm very concerned. I would say
33:51 that I would take the over on the sacks number of receivers. I like that. I see it being an even
33:57 seven. I could see him targeting a few more. I can see some of them not bringing it down.
34:01 Um, but I, I'd see, you know, a couple of targets, one for each receipt, a running back. That's out
34:05 there. I can see Henry and just second getting involved. I think that this will be a game where
34:10 Bill O'Brien tries to pull out all the stops, not in a like trick play kind of a way, but whole
34:16 definitely test the offense and see what they're able to do, what I will, what they're able to do,
34:20 uh, from a strategic standpoint and they'll design plays for all of the different players.
34:25 And so I could see it very easily being seven players that get catches. So I'm going to go
34:29 a push on that one on the money line. I'll take it good for me. All right. Last prop bet Rich Hill
34:34 for the offense before we get to predictions, a hundred total yards rushing as a team over, under
34:39 a hundred total yards rushing as a team. Uh, I don't feel great about that again, if it were a
34:47 different, uh, different team, it was like a, uh, different situation where, uh, Patriots had
34:54 more offensive line time together. It wasn't the Eagles and they're just very, very stout defensive
35:00 front. Uh, they allowed less than a hundred yards per game last year, 1500 rushing yards over the
35:06 course of 16 games. That's, that's a good running defense. And the Patriots don't have the offensive
35:12 line in my mind to be able to say, we're going to do it with authority. I see this being a game
35:18 where the Eagles are able to put up, you know, a score or two earlier where it forces the Patriots
35:25 to kind of put the ball into the air, uh, and they'll have their hands full on that front.
35:29 So I kind of see them not being able to run the ball 400 yards, not because they're, uh,
35:33 incapable of doing it overall, but this is just a perfect storm of a bad situation.
35:38 And it is week one and absolutely anything goes in that week one. The good news is if you're not
35:44 long to wait, we will soon see this Sunday 425 Eastern Patriots are hosting the Eagles. That is
35:50 our four downs. It is time to either kick the extra point and break the Patriots loss or go for
35:54 two and pick the Patriots win. I just made that up right now. Hope you're okay with it. I like it.
36:00 I, uh, I didn't, I've, I lost my notes on the preseason predictions because who cares?
36:04 Okay. We got them all right. So in that case, I will defer to you. You get first crack
36:09 Patriots hosting the Eagles week one game one, the let the prediction contest officially commence
36:15 who you got. Yeah. Uh, as, as my tone of the show has taken course, I think that the Eagles win this
36:22 one. And I don't think it's going to be pretty. I think that this Patriots team will be a wildcard
36:28 team. I think that they have the talent. I think they have the ability asking them with a lot of
36:35 new faces on offense, but the new offensive coordinator with a new playbook without an
36:40 offensive line to go toe to toe with the reigning NFC champs that seem to have gotten stronger.
36:45 I don't feel good about that. I, I, I would say that I am expecting the pace of the game to be
36:52 the Eagles going up something like 17 to seven or something like that in the first half in Patriots,
36:58 having to be able to throw the ball in the second half and not being able to do it. Cause Mack Jones
37:02 simply won't have the time to stand in the pocket to be able to deliver on it. And through no fault
37:06 of their own, it's just, again, a perfect storm of them having a lot of injuries on that offensive
37:11 line. A lot of question marks and four players on that offensive line have been dealing with
37:15 injuries where they've just returned. That's that's too much for anyone. We've talked about
37:19 this off season to Juju Smith Schuster dealing with injuries, Devante Parker on the injury report,
37:23 dealing with an injury. They're dealing with a lot of things on that one. So for them to have to go
37:30 and beat the Eagles. Now I'm going to go with the Eagles winning this one, something along the lines
37:36 of 27 to 17, but it's not as close as the score indicates. So like 27, 10 late touchdown kind
37:42 of thing. All right. So rich head, the Eagles Patriots starting Oh, and one. All right. Fair
37:47 enough. So you're going for an extra point cause you're a limp. Absolutely cowardly. Yeah. Again,
37:54 I think you and I disagree on this one respectfully in terms of, I think you say if this was like a
37:58 week, six, week, seven game, the offensive line is more time to gel and there'd be a little more
38:02 difference in terms of protection schemes, which makes a lot of sense. But I think I'm going to go
38:07 the opposite way. I think this is week one. It is the Patriots home opener. Both teams are still
38:11 kind of finding their footing. Super bowl hangover is a real thing, whether you want it to be or not.
38:15 The last game, the Eagles play was a loss to the chiefs on the world's biggest stage. Tom Brady
38:20 will be in the stadium. You cannot, you cannot overstate the return of Tommy B. What's that
38:26 going to do to this Foxborough faithful? Will the Tom Brady magic rub off on his teammates? Will he
38:31 be on the sidelines yelling, let's go at the bench. I just feel like this is a scenario where
38:36 if this game was like in week nine or week 10 Eagles blow the Patriots out of the water. I think
38:41 there are enough intangibles and enough early season jitters and weirdness for the pages come
38:46 away with a win this time. I think they do something really cool and they win something
38:49 like 2421. Patriot. I mean, I would be beyond thrilled to be wrong. It would change my outlook
38:57 on the entire season if they came out and won in a like, doesn't even have to be decisive. It comes
39:03 out and it's a gritty win. I will have a lot more faith in this team. What I am hoping to see coming
39:09 out of this is a disciplined Patriots team. One that doesn't ruin drives with pre-snap penalties,
39:15 ones that don't have foolish and unnecessary turnovers, ones that protect the ball. If we
39:22 see that in week one, you know, win on special teams. Don't do any, you know, don't lose the
39:26 game on special teams. If they're able to do that typical Patriots football win or lose against this
39:32 Eagles team, I'm going to have a lot more faith in this team's ability over the course of the entire
39:37 year. I'm hoping that the offensive line will find its footing. I'm hoping you're right. I'm
39:43 hoping Tom Brady brings out the TV 12 magic and the Patriots are able to pull off the upset here.
39:48 They're only four point underdogs, which I am shocked by. I don't know if I stand by that.
39:52 That's, that's unbelievable. But I would love, love, love, love, love for the Patriots to prove
39:58 me wrong. Yeah. I mean, I think this game is definitely winnable. It would be a huge boost
40:04 because again, we talked about it. We've got the Eagles, the next week's the dolphins and they're
40:08 at the jets. Who knows what that one, then they're at the Cowboys. And that's another real question
40:11 mark. So Owen four is on a table right now. So to come out, want to know, uh, and it seemed that
40:17 they can be that they're maybe not better than, but it is a winnable game. It is kind of a statement.
40:21 It's sending a message, just letting the world know. So a lot of people are calling for like a
40:25 six and 11 season for the Patriots in 2023. They have everyone has a finishing laugh in the
40:30 division. This would be a really good chance for them to kind of maybe the Patriots 3.0. I don't
40:35 know where, what, what point over at this iteration, but like this new completely revamped Patriots
40:40 offense, this Patriots team can have that us against them mentality. And instead off with,
40:45 we're going to take the entity chance down our own stadium in front of the greatest quarterback
40:48 of all time. It's very doable. Yeah. And like, I think the teams that make the wild card are the
40:55 teams that, you know, win their fair share of the 50, 50 games. They're not knocking off the top
41:01 contenders, but they're winning their share of 50, 50 games. And that puts them on track to be a
41:06 wild card. This game doesn't count as one of those. This is not a 50, 50 game, but as you said, it is
41:11 winnable. It's not like the Eagles are unbeatable because clearly they can be beaten. It's a
41:16 situation where if the Patriots beat the Eagles, then it's a circumstance where maybe we have to
41:21 reevaluate this Patriots team and what their overall potential is with all of their existing
41:25 question marks is what is their ceiling? Are they a wild card team that like will win their fair
41:32 share of 50, 50 games, but we don't think that they can beat the Bengals or the chiefs or the
41:36 bills when it actually matters. We don't think that they're in that echelon yet. If they beat
41:40 the Eagles, absolutely. They are absolutely. They are. It changes the entire conversation because
41:45 there will be proof. There will be evidence that they can do it and evidence that, you know, as the
41:50 team in typical Belichick fashion, fingers crossed improves over the course of the season, where they
41:55 figure out what they're good at, what they're able to optimize, where they will be efficient,
41:59 where they're able to be more diligent and, you know, more in control of their own play and not
42:05 make as many mistakes. If they're able to build from this point of knocking off the NFC champs,
42:11 then we're looking at a point where what we talked about at the beginning of the off season,
42:14 if this is a top five defense and a top 10 offense, they are a contender. And that would
42:20 mean a lot for this team. They call it overreaction Monday for a reason, Rich Hill, that first Monday
42:26 after week one of the NFL. And that is a perfect segue into over hopefully the overreaction Wednesday
42:33 when we get back together post this game to break it all down that and week two should be good one.
42:37 I'm excited. And as always honored to do it with you alongside my buddy Rich Hill for this 2023
42:42 season. That's kind of all I got for today. Anything else you want to talk about?
42:46 Nope, that's all I got, Alec. And until next time, you have a good one.
42:49 You too, buddy. See ya.
42:52 [Music]