Will Patriots Beat Commanders + Week 9 NFL Picks | Presented by OddsR

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Prepare for an in-depth analysis of the Week 9 betting scene with our distinguished hosts, Taylor Kyles from CLNS Media and Mike Kadlick of WEEI.

In this wagering segment powered by OddsR, Taylor and Mike will delve into the FanDuel Sportsbook odds for the match-up between the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders as well as other AFC East clashes. Their sharp insights aim to provide priceless guidance for those keen on betting or simply wishing to grasp a richer comprehension of the matches.

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Transcript
00:00 All right, everybody, welcome back in.
00:02 It is week nine here on Patriots Press Pass.
00:05 I am Mike Kallik from WEI, joined as always here
00:09 by Taylor Kiles from CLNS Media.
00:11 We are here to run through the games to watch
00:14 across the NFL, some of the best ones to bet on,
00:16 not only in the AFC and the AFC East,
00:18 but across the entire National Football League.
00:21 This segment is presented by Odds Are.
00:24 Head over to oddsare.com/presspass
00:26 and you can get a 30-day free trial.
00:28 They'll tell you what to bet, makes it super easy.
00:31 They use AI models to give you the best gambling
00:34 and betting advice.
00:35 As I always say on here, they know what they're talking
00:38 about, me and Taylor are just here to have some fun
00:40 and entertainment.
00:41 And hey, you can take our picks for you on.
00:42 Sometimes they're good, sometimes they're not, but.
00:45 Well, yeah, exactly, sometimes.
00:47 So we'll give you a couple of games to watch,
00:49 a couple of games to look at across the league,
00:51 and we'll give you some betting picks here.
00:53 So we're gonna start, as we always do,
00:55 with the Patriots hosting the Washington Commanders
00:58 from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.
01:01 1 p.m. kickoff, the Patriots are three and a half
01:04 point favorites according to FanDuel.
01:07 The total is 40 and a half.
01:09 Obviously, Sam Howell comes in with his arsenal of weapons.
01:14 He's been sacked the most times in the NFL.
01:16 Washington also just traded away their two best
01:20 defensive ends in Montez Sweat and Chase Young,
01:23 so they're getting young across the defensive line.
01:27 Patriots come in two and six, you like that one?
01:30 Patriots come in two and six,
01:33 lose to the Dolphins last week,
01:35 and sort of just didn't make any moves to the deadline,
01:38 sort of sitting in no man's land at two and six.
01:41 So Taylor, with Washington coming in,
01:43 with what you've seen, what you've scouted,
01:45 what do you make of this matchup,
01:46 and ultimately, who do you think wins the game?
01:49 - I think it'll be the Pats
01:51 in a real low-scoring, nasty game, yeah.
01:54 I mean, I think this is a rough team,
01:57 but offensively, they have shown the flashes.
02:00 They haven't had the super slow starts
02:02 the past couple weeks.
02:04 You've seen them be able to move the ball
02:05 with tempo last week, and then, obviously,
02:07 they keep shooting themselves in the foot again,
02:09 but they've got some pause momentum.
02:11 Obviously, Kendrick Foran going down is huge,
02:14 but they still got Tamario, they still got Hunter Henry,
02:16 still got Pharaoh Brown, most importantly.
02:19 And I'm hoping that we won't see the offensive line
02:22 rotation that we did, so they can have
02:23 some better continuity there.
02:26 So yeah, I'm gonna give it to the Pats,
02:27 although I do think it's gonna be competitive.
02:29 Sam Howell's a guy where, if it's close late,
02:32 he's shown that he can be competitive in those situations,
02:34 so you can't sleep on him.
02:35 And the defensive line, obviously,
02:37 they lost two great guys on the edge,
02:38 but they've got two great guys inside as well,
02:41 in Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.
02:43 Also, the secondary has been hemorrhaging.
02:46 They give up a ton of big plays,
02:48 but they also get their hands on a lot of passes.
02:50 They have one of the top teams in the NFL
02:53 in dropped interceptions.
02:54 If they didn't drop those, which, obviously,
02:55 is if, but they would lead league in picks.
02:58 So they're getting in position to make plays,
03:00 so it's gonna be on the offense to actually
03:02 be able to capitalize rather than give them opportunities.
03:05 But yeah, I think the Patriots could eat this one out,
03:07 and just, no one's scoring 20 in this game, I don't think.
03:10 - Yeah, I see low scoring as well.
03:12 I love the under 40 and a half.
03:15 I look at, obviously, too, Emmanuel Forbes,
03:17 who is one of those young guys in the Redskins secondary.
03:20 Redskins, how the heck am I still doing that?
03:22 The Commander's secondary.
03:24 Me and Andy Hart, if you wanna check it out on WEI,
03:26 just did our thing, and we both called them the Redskins,
03:29 like, three times.
03:29 The Washington Commanders took Emmanuel Forbes
03:32 just before Christian Gonzalez,
03:34 and obviously, Forbes is still on the field.
03:37 Christian Gonzalez is not,
03:38 but he has struggled this season.
03:41 I look at, too, you're right,
03:43 the Patriots have sort of got it going on offense
03:45 a little bit over the last couple weeks.
03:47 I think, ultimately, I don't know where I like this team
03:52 or where this team's headed.
03:54 Commanders, you talk about Sam Howell
03:56 and what they've done the last few weeks.
03:57 They played the Eagles really good last week.
04:00 I know they ended up losing,
04:01 but they always play them tight.
04:03 Sam Howell's got that little bit of a baller in him.
04:05 So I'm gonna take the Commanders plus three and a half.
04:09 I don't know if they'll win either,
04:11 but I think they'll keep it within three.
04:12 I think it's a three-score game either way.
04:15 My final score prediction is gonna be Commanders 20,
04:19 Patriots 17, but I think it's gonna be a close game.
04:23 I think anyone can squeeze it down the end.
04:24 And I like the under 40 and a half as well.
04:26 All right, let's go to Germany
04:28 because the Dolphins and the Chiefs
04:31 are kicking off in Germany Sunday.
04:33 It'll be around nine o'clock Eastern time.
04:36 The Chiefs are one and a half point favorites,
04:39 according to FanDuel, and the total is 50 and a half.
04:42 Dolphins coming off a win against the Patriots last week.
04:45 Chiefs coming off a surprising loss, I'd say,
04:48 to the Denver Broncos.
04:49 They only ended up putting up nine points.
04:52 And Padre Warhol apparently was dealing with the flu.
04:55 Russell Wilson looks like a pretty good quarterback
04:58 as of late.
04:59 I think that we all jumped on him last season,
05:02 and rightfully so,
05:03 but even though the Broncos haven't been great,
05:04 Russell Wilson's been playing pretty solid ball this season.
05:07 The Broncos, another team that stood pat
05:09 at the trade deadline.
05:10 There were talks that they might move off
05:11 of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy.
05:13 They're tackled, Garrett Bowles, but they're all there.
05:18 And I still think the Chiefs are one of the best teams
05:20 in football, but they're coming off a little bit of,
05:21 like we said, a stinker against that team.
05:23 So, what do you make of Dolphins versus Chiefs in Germany?
05:28 A high total of 50 and a half,
05:31 two high flying power offenses.
05:34 Patriots head into Germany next week as well,
05:36 so this is sort of a preview of what it looks like
05:38 out there, but what do you think of this one?
05:40 - I think it stinks that this is a Germany game,
05:44 because there's the chance that, you know,
05:46 that could affect how it's actually played
05:47 and how players feel about it,
05:49 'cause this is an amazing matchup.
05:52 But good for the people of Germany.
05:53 They get to see some good football
05:54 instead of the basement teams.
05:56 - Yeah. - Right.
05:57 But, I mean, it's tough,
06:00 because I really like the Chiefs defense.
06:01 Obviously, had a rough one last week,
06:03 but this is also an amazing Dolphins offense.
06:05 Like, one thing, I talked to JC Jackson
06:07 about some of the big plays they gave up yesterday,
06:09 and he was just like, "You gotta give respect
06:12 "to those skilled players and how Mike McDaniel's using them.
06:14 "Like, they were in their bag."
06:16 - Yeah. - And it looked bad,
06:18 you know, on the TV broadcast,
06:19 but there were also some plays
06:20 where you just had to tip your cap to the Dolphins,
06:22 and their defense looks really good.
06:24 Jalen Ramsey just came in
06:26 and looked like he'd been playing all season.
06:28 That could be a little bit much for this Chiefs team.
06:31 Now, Dolphins play a lot of zone coverage,
06:33 and Travis Kelsey destroys zone coverage.
06:35 It's gonna be a really interesting matchup here.
06:36 - It's unbelievable how he plays against zone.
06:38 It's crazy.
06:39 - No idea how that one's gonna turn out.
06:42 But I just, I don't know if the Chiefs,
06:45 and this sounds kind of crazy,
06:46 but I'm just not sure if they'd be able
06:47 to match the firepower of the Dolphins,
06:49 just because they have so much talent
06:51 at the skilled positions,
06:52 whereas, you know, the Chiefs,
06:53 it's Mahomes being amazing and Travis Kelsey,
06:56 but I just don't know if they can score
06:58 as quickly as the Dolphins can.
07:00 - Yeah. - And I also just think
07:02 that, I don't know, it's tough.
07:05 Yeah, I'm not gonna overthink this one,
07:06 'cause I'm starting to, I can feel myself spiraling.
07:08 I'm just gonna give the Dolphins the win in this one,
07:10 but I think it's gonna be a close game.
07:11 - All right. - Yeah.
07:12 - So I'm gonna take the Chiefs here.
07:14 I think that, while I agree with all your points,
07:17 I also like to look at, you know, momentum
07:21 and, you know, where things go.
07:23 And obviously the Dolphins have momentum,
07:24 but I also think that the Chiefs coming off a loss,
07:27 they're gonna come out flying.
07:29 And I look at, again, that Chiefs defense
07:32 that we've talked about here every single week,
07:34 like they're really dang good,
07:35 and they sort of, you know,
07:37 they weren't great last week,
07:38 but I also think that they can, you know,
07:40 scheme something up, Spags can do something
07:42 for that to Mike McDaniel offense.
07:45 Not that they're gonna shut them down.
07:46 I still think I like the over 50 and a half in this game.
07:50 I think both teams are gonna score their points,
07:51 but I think the Chiefs eke it out.
07:53 I think, you know, Mahomes is gonna have
07:55 a bounce back game here.
07:56 I love what Kelsey does against that zone defense.
07:59 So I think he's gonna have a big game.
08:01 I understand your point about not being able to answer,
08:04 but I think the Chiefs will slow him down a little bit.
08:07 So I think I like the Chiefs minus one and a half,
08:11 and I like the total of 50 and a half.
08:14 I like rooting for points.
08:15 Wake up early, 9 a.m., root for points.
08:17 Go do that on FanDuel,
08:19 who we'll actually listen to right now.
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09:13 You can bet on all of the games
09:15 that we are talking about here on Patriots Press Pass,
09:18 including this next one.
09:20 The Los Angeles Rams are headed to Green Bay
09:23 to take on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.
09:25 The Packers are three point favorites at FanDuel,
09:29 and their total is a low 38 and a half.
09:32 The Rams are a team,
09:36 me and you, Taylor, have talked about on here several times
09:39 that we love Matt Stafford.
09:41 We think they can be a good team,
09:42 but they've also lost two straight.
09:45 And the Packers,
09:46 at least I was high on Jordan Love early in the season,
09:49 but that team is not great either.
09:51 They've lost a couple in a row.
09:52 I'm kind of surprised to see the Packers
09:54 as favorites in this one.
09:56 I think I look at both of these teams
09:58 as teams that can be pretty good
10:00 and actually not have performed,
10:02 but the LA Rams, I feel like,
10:04 are just better as far as personnel and coaching
10:07 and everything in that regard.
10:09 So, kind of surprised to see the Packers as favorites here,
10:11 but we both like Stafford.
10:14 I think it should be a decent contest.
10:16 It's a matchup between McVay and his understudy,
10:20 or one of the, I guess, Shanahan understudies
10:22 with him and Matt LaFleur.
10:24 That coaching tree remains insane.
10:26 But yeah, Rams heading to Green Bay.
10:28 What do you think of this matchup?
10:30 - This is another one I'm just gonna keep simple.
10:32 I think if Stafford plays, I think they win this one.
10:34 If he doesn't play, he's got the edge of the dog.
10:35 - Oh yeah, right, I should have mentioned that as well.
10:37 Stafford is banged up, so that's obviously a factor here.
10:42 - And as much as I love Brett Rippon,
10:44 we've kind of seen what he is at the NFL at this point.
10:47 So yeah, if Matt Stafford plays, they win.
10:50 If they don't, they lose.
10:51 I think it really just comes down to that.
10:53 - Yeah, I think so too.
10:54 And I think that's also true
10:56 as to why the Packers are favorites here,
10:58 even though Jordan Love has them great
11:00 and that team really has them great.
11:01 They just traded Russell Douglas to the Bills.
11:03 So I wouldn't call that a full sell move by any means,
11:07 but they've picked up a pick there.
11:09 I agree with you.
11:10 I think it's a little too early to tell on Stafford
11:12 dealing with an elbow, which is always tough with him.
11:15 Obviously, his throwing arm.
11:16 So if it's Rippon, I agree with you.
11:18 I like, if it's Rippon, I like the Packers.
11:21 If it's Stafford, I like the Rams.
11:23 Something tells me Stafford is just gonna play.
11:25 Like, I just feel like he's the kind of guy
11:27 that is gonna fight through it.
11:28 So if you had to do it now,
11:30 I guess I like the Rams take the points early, plus three,
11:33 and then the line will change,
11:34 and then you're good to go on that.
11:36 As far as the total, 38 and a half.
11:38 Feels low.
11:39 I feel like that's another one kind of reliant on Stafford
11:42 because I feel like if Rippon plays,
11:44 the Rams maybe score 10 points.
11:45 And if Stafford does play, they could score upwards of 25, 30.
11:49 So I would wait on the total as far as betting it,
11:53 if I were you.
11:54 But if you think Stafford's gonna play,
11:55 I kind of like taking the Rams here, plus three.
11:57 So that's that one.
11:59 Let's stay in the NFC.
12:01 We have Cowboys, we have Eagles.
12:03 The Eagles are also three-point favorites,
12:05 just like the Packers were.
12:07 Eagles coming off a close but a big win
12:10 against the Commanders,
12:11 and the Cowboys coming off a massive win as well.
12:15 46 and a half is the total, according to Fandel.
12:20 Cowboys have a great defense.
12:23 Eagles have a great offense.
12:25 The Tush push finally did not work last week.
12:28 I think Jalen Hurts fumbled or something like that.
12:30 But I love Jalen Hurts.
12:31 I think I watch him play every single week,
12:34 and I just see like, he continues to improve as a passer,
12:37 which was his biggest sort of flaw
12:40 in the pre-draft stuff, if you will.
12:41 People didn't love the way he threw the football.
12:43 Even early in his career, he wasn't great,
12:45 but he's really improved in that.
12:47 A.J. Brown has been dominant six games
12:49 with 125 yards through the year, six games in a row.
12:53 So their connection is sky high, spot on.
12:56 But that Cowboys defense we talked about,
12:58 even without Trevon Diggs, has still been really good.
13:02 NFC East matchup, again, Phillies at home,
13:05 so that makes it all the more interesting out at the link.
13:07 But what do you make of this one, Taylor?
13:10 - It's tough because the Cowboys just had a shootout.
13:13 And I think the Eagles, I wanna say this is gonna be,
13:16 well, not really a shootout, they put up 40.
13:18 It wasn't competitive, it was just they put up a shootout.
13:21 And I wanna say that the Eagles can contend with that,
13:24 but the Cowboys past defense has been very good.
13:26 And the Eagles past defense has not been very good.
13:29 So I think that, I feel like most people
13:32 are probably gonna lean on the Eagles,
13:33 but I'll go with the upset and say the Cowboys
13:35 actually pulled this one out.
13:36 - Ooh, all right.
13:37 Man, you're kinda making me rethink it.
13:40 I feel like we've been opposite a few times here.
13:43 But I don't know, like I said, I just kinda,
13:47 I just talked up the Eagles in the lead up there.
13:50 I like where Philly's at this year.
13:52 Really like Jalen Hurts, really like Nick Sirianni, I do.
13:56 I know people hate him and he's cringy and I agree, but.
13:59 - I think he's hilarious.
14:00 - Yeah, I do too.
14:01 I think a lot of these-- - Everybody's so serious.
14:03 Appreciate the goofy coaches we have.
14:05 They're awesome. - Thank you, Taylor.
14:06 Thank you.
14:07 I completely agree with that.
14:09 That's why I like him.
14:10 That's why I like Mike McDaniel.
14:11 Hell, that's why I even like Brandon Staley.
14:13 And I get that he stinks, but that's why I like Staley.
14:16 I kinda like his goofiness too.
14:17 So I'm gonna take the Eagles, minus three.
14:20 I'm gonna take over 46 and a half as well.
14:22 I think this can be a sneaky shootout again,
14:23 even though we've got a couple good defenses on both sides.
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16:08 So let's continue on with a couple of our primetime games
16:12 here, Taylor.
16:13 Sunday Night Football, we have the Bills at the Bengals.
16:16 By far my favorite matchup of the weekend.
16:19 A matchup of a few AFC playoff games here.
16:24 I know last year's game in Buffalo that the Bengals
16:28 ended up squeaking out for the win.
16:30 This one here at Cincinnati,
16:33 Bengals are one and a half point favorites
16:34 according to FanDuel.
16:35 The total is 49 and a half.
16:37 After a slower start to the season,
16:40 the Bengals are back on track.
16:42 They've won a couple in a row here.
16:43 Joe Burrow seems to be healthier.
16:45 Jamar Chase, T. Higgins obviously look to be
16:47 getting to themselves in a little bit of a groove.
16:50 The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile,
16:52 continue losing pieces on defense,
16:53 although they did trade for Rasul Douglas
16:56 from the Packers this week at the trade deadline.
16:59 But still a couple, like they lose to the Patriots,
17:02 then last weekend on Thursday Night Football,
17:04 they equal out against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
17:07 Almost lost on a hail Mary at the last second.
17:11 But nonetheless, Bills at Bengals,
17:14 great matchup between two great quarterbacks
17:16 and two sort of young up and coming teams in the league.
17:19 So Taylor, what are your thoughts on this matchup?
17:23 - I think the Bengals pulled this one out,
17:24 mostly because I think-- - Same.
17:27 - Yeah, the Bills are just really struggling to corner.
17:29 And I think that's gonna be their undoing
17:31 against Josh Allen.
17:32 They put up 30 points in like two of the past few weeks.
17:34 So they've been doing pretty well offensively,
17:36 kind of really hitting their stride.
17:38 And then obviously depends on which version
17:40 Josh Allen comes to play.
17:42 But the Bengals have a good defense.
17:43 And I just think that Joe Burrow's gonna make
17:45 fewer mistakes in this one.
17:46 So I think it's gonna be a high scoring game,
17:48 but I think Joe Burrow's gonna be the one
17:50 to come out on top.
17:51 - I think so too. - And the Bengals, sorry.
17:53 - Yeah, no, I'm with you.
17:56 It's Joe Burrow's Bengals.
17:58 It's his team.
17:59 And I agree with you.
18:01 I think this is sort of one of those, don't overthink it.
18:04 People are a little bit lower on the Bengals
18:06 than they should be because of their rough start
18:09 to the season and of Joe Burrow's health.
18:10 But they look really good again.
18:13 They need to win these games because of their slow start.
18:16 They do need to grind these ones out
18:18 and get to the playoffs.
18:19 And I think they will.
18:20 And I think they will at this one too.
18:21 At home, prime time, Joe Burrow minus one and a half
18:25 feels like an easy bet to me.
18:26 And I also agree with you that it's gonna be high scoring.
18:30 They've got their mojo going.
18:31 The Bills, even though they're not dominating
18:34 and they lost the top one of the Patriots,
18:36 their offense is still the Bills offense.
18:38 So they can put up points as well.
18:39 So I like Bengals minus one and a half.
18:41 And I like 49 over 49 and a half in this one in Cincinnati.
18:46 Now we go to Monday Night Football, Taylor,
18:48 where we have the Los Angeles Chargers
18:50 traveling to the Jets at MetLife.
18:54 Chargers, road favorites, minus three and a half
18:57 coming all the way from LA.
18:59 They still pick up the minus sign at FanDuel.
19:02 And the total's a low 40 and a half.
19:05 The Jets coming off a bye week
19:06 and coming off a couple of good wins.
19:09 Wait, no, no, they won last week.
19:10 I'm sorry, they're not coming off a bye week.
19:11 They beat the Giants in actually a really frisky game,
19:14 which was very, very interesting
19:16 because they really should have lost that game.
19:18 And then Zach Wilson had the spike.
19:19 I don't know if you saw the end of the game.
19:21 It was pretty, pretty nuts, but the Chargers come in
19:25 and they are road favorites.
19:26 So we've sort of warmed up to Zach Wilson here on the show.
19:31 We're also big Justin Herbert fans, me and you.
19:35 So two of our newer favorite quarterbacks in this league
19:39 facing off on Monday Night Football, who do you like?
19:41 - I think I'm gonna go with the Jets.
19:45 - The Jets.
19:46 - I think they just have more of a clutch gene.
19:48 I think they just have more of a clutch gene.
19:50 - Imagine saying that coming into the season,
19:52 saying that Zach Wilson's Jets have a clutch gene.
19:55 - Most comebacks to the NFL this season.
19:57 - I know.
19:58 - Yeah, I think that the defense can keep it tight.
20:00 And yeah, I just think that the Jets
20:02 will be able to pull this one out.
20:04 I'm not gonna over, this is one of my not overthink games.
20:06 I'm just gonna keep it simple.
20:08 I think that, I think this is a Jets win.
20:10 - Riding the Jets.
20:11 I do it every week with the Chargers.
20:15 I love Justin Herbert.
20:17 I think he's in a tough situation.
20:19 I understand that he's, you know,
20:21 he doesn't help himself sometimes either,
20:23 but you know, every week I look at the numbers,
20:26 I look at the lines, I'm like,
20:28 Chargers minus three and a half, let's roll, let's do it.
20:31 This is the week they pull it off.
20:33 I'm gonna continue to do it here.
20:34 I think that the Jets, yeah,
20:37 they do have a little bit of a spark with Wilson.
20:39 And I feel like they, as a whole,
20:41 have sort of a motivation to keep winning
20:44 just in case Aaron Rodgers can come back,
20:46 which that's a whole nother story for another day.
20:48 But the fact that he's out there slinging footballs
20:50 on a torn Achilles is like the craziest thing I've ever seen.
20:54 I really do think he might come back,
20:55 but even if he's not gonna come back
20:58 and he's just doing it as a motivation tactic,
20:59 I think it's working because the Jets
21:01 are playing really good football on both sides.
21:03 So nonetheless, I still like the Chargers here.
21:06 I think they can pull it out.
21:07 I think they need to go on a little bit of a run themselves
21:09 to get them back in a wild card playoff contention.
21:12 So I think this is a good week to do it for them.
21:15 So I'm gonna take the Chargers with the points
21:17 and 40 and a half.
21:19 I think it's gonna be low scoring
21:23 because that Jets defense continues to keep it close to them.
21:25 So I'm gonna go under 40 and a half.
21:27 So that's gonna do it for myself and Taylor Kyles
21:30 here on Patriots Press Pass for week nine.
21:33 You can obviously follow him on Twitter @tkyles39
21:36 and read all of his great analysis at clmsmedia.com.
21:40 You can find all my work and stuff on Twitter @mikekadlik
21:45 and read me at weei.com.
21:47 Me and Taylor will be back next week for week 10.
21:50 Cannot believe it's already week 10.
21:51 Cannot believe it's already November.
21:53 Cannot believe how cold it got so fast in New England,
21:57 but nonetheless, we're gonna keep it here.
21:59 We're gonna keep running out the content for y'all.
22:00 So follow along here, rate, review, subscribe,
22:03 Patriots Press Pass, all that good stuff.
22:05 And we will see you next week.
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