Breaking Down Patriots Cap Health and 2024 Outlook w/ Pats Cap | Patriots Daily - video Dailymotion

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In the most recent episode of Patriots Daily, Taylor Kyles is joined by Miguel 'Pats Cap' Benzan to provide an in-depth analysis of the New England Patriots' financial health and their outlook for the 2024 season in terms of salary cap management.  FanDuel Sportsbook, the exclusive wagering parter of the CLNS Media NetworkRight now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! So, visit https://FanDuel.com/BOSTON and kick off the NFL season. FanDuel, Official Partner of the NFL. 21+ and present in MA. Hope is here. First online real money wager only. $5 pregame moneyline wager required. First onlinereal money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. GamblingHelpLineMa.org or call (800)-327-5050 for 24/7 support. Play it smart from the start! GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.  Ever wished you could navigate the betting field with the confidence of a pro Download the Odds-R App! They're not a sportsbook, but they're the sports betting advisor you've always needed. Patriots Press Pass viewers get a 30-day free trial! Elevate your game day and join the smart betting revolution! Go get it at https://oddsr.com/presspass  Visit https://factormeals.com/PRESSPASS50 to get 50% off your first box! Factor is America’s #1 Ready-To-Eat Meal Kit, can help you fuel up fast with ready-to-eat meals delivered straight to your door.

Transcript

00:00 Patriots Daily is brought to you by FanDuel,

00:02 the exclusive wedgering partner of the CLNS Media Network.

00:05 - What's going on everyone?

00:08 Taylor Kyle's here for CLNS Media

00:10 with one of my favorite people

00:12 covering the Patriots, Miguel Benzon,

00:15 aka @patscap on Twitter.

00:17 With the Patriots going through a pretty rough season,

00:20 if we're gonna put it nicely,

00:22 it's about time we start getting realistic

00:24 and looking towards 2024

00:27 and how this team can start to build itself up

00:29 'cause it's extension candidates still on the roster.

00:32 You know, people are talking about what they can do

00:34 with all their cap space next off season, lots of questions.

00:36 So we're gonna start that talk now

00:38 after back-to-back loss to the Commanders and Colts,

00:41 and we're gonna start talking about something

00:43 to put some smiles on people's faces for the future.

00:47 But first, before we get into that, Miguel,

00:49 how are you doing, brother?

00:50 Good to see that face.

00:51 You know I love that smile.

00:52 - Thank you, doing all right, doing all right.

00:54 It's a pleasure meeting you,

00:56 seeing you, this is my first podcast together

00:58 and hopefully it won't be our last.

01:00 It is awesome to see you doing "Crushin' It!"

01:06 And that's all I got to say.

01:09 I mean, like I never, we've never met in real life, all right?

01:14 So I was telling Tyler before,

01:17 I did not realize he's that tall.

01:19 He- (laughing)

01:23 - The camera adds two inches or whatever the size is.

01:25 - I know, really, I'm like, oh my God.

01:26 But I'm like, okay, that's so funny.

01:28 I'm like, oh my gosh, you're 6'3"?

01:30 I'm like, goodness gracious, I didn't believe it.

01:32 I'm like, all right, I thought you were like 6'1".

01:35 (laughing)

01:36 And tell me, please, with the beat writers,

01:40 you guys have a basketball team.

01:42 - We're working on it, me and Kari.

01:43 We're the captains right now.

01:45 We're still trying to get our team together.

01:46 We have Brian and I, and you know, we're talking about it.

01:49 But can't break that right now.

01:51 This is a task, let's not bug it.

01:53 - Okay.

01:54 - But thank you for the kind words, buddy.

01:56 I really appreciate you, but I need your expertise

01:58 'cause we've got a lot of questions

01:59 as this team has a rebuild on its hands in the near future.

02:03 - Oh my God, yes.

02:04 - So first, the Patriots have, or at least reported,

02:07 to have the third most cap space next off season.

02:10 So first, you were amazing, got us some graphs,

02:13 some visual aids.

02:15 So I'm gonna ask you, do the Patriots actually have

02:17 as much 2024 cap space as it's being reported that they do?

02:21 And what's their cap health looking like?

02:23 - Okay, the cap health is great.

02:25 Okay, some people say 100, some people say 90,

02:29 some people say 120, all right?

02:32 But boy, like two months ago, people were saying 120.

02:34 Now it's 100, now it's 90, all right?

02:37 And folks, when you hear that number, $90 million, all right?

02:41 You should ask the person, how many people do they have,

02:44 how many players do they have the Patriots signed

02:47 for with that $90 million, all right?

02:49 'Cause every year after the end of the regular season,

02:53 the Patriots sign most of their practice squad players

02:56 to future contracts.

02:58 They have 16 players on the practice squad right now.

03:02 I expect for them to sign somewhere

03:05 between 12 to 16 of them, all right?

03:07 So that gives, they already have 44 players on the roster.

03:10 That gives them 60 players, around 60 players on the roster.

03:14 That's more than 51, 'cause that's the cutoff

03:17 for the top 51 rule, and we'll just go about that.

03:21 During the off season, only the salaries of the 50 players

03:25 with the 51 highest cap numbers count against the cap.

03:29 That's how a team can afford to have 90 players

03:31 on the roster during the off season,

03:33 'cause you're not counting 39 salaries, all right?

03:37 It's not counting the salaries, everyone's salary

03:40 right before the start of the regular season, all right?

03:43 So when you hear that $90 million,

03:45 that's probably someone who's looking at the site

03:47 and saying, hey, the Patriots have officially

03:50 44 players signed for 2024.

03:54 What I do is I'm already projecting

03:57 that the Patriots will sign a great deal

03:59 of their practice squad players' future deals.

04:01 I'm also looking at, hey, I know the Raimondi Stevenson.

04:05 He has played enough snaps during the first three years

04:08 of his rookie deal to increase his salary

04:12 to what the low RFA ten will be in 2024.

04:15 Right now, none of us know what the exact number

04:19 will be for the league cap number, all right?

04:21 I say 250.

04:23 I know the other two sites are saying 256,

04:26 but if you listen to Jason Fitzgerald,

04:28 the owner of overthecap.com,

04:31 even him, he's having some pause with his number.

04:33 So I'm just using 250 'cause I've heard from my sources,

04:37 that's what the league offices are using, 245 to 250.

04:41 So I'm going with the high number, all right?

04:44 And Jason has said several times on his podcast,

04:46 his $256 million number is a guess.

04:49 So I'm just using the guess by the league officials,

04:52 no offense to Jason, but instead of using his guess,

04:56 I'm gonna use one by league officials instead of him.

04:58 No offense to him, okay?

05:00 So then, are they including the $900,000

05:06 off-season workout charge bonus charge?

05:09 They're not, all right?

05:11 And then I will talk about, like, for example,

05:14 they are probably not including the incentives

05:17 that will be considered as of now,

05:19 likely to be earned in 2024, all right?

05:21 For example, David Andrews, Jelani Tavai, Lawrence Guy,

05:26 all have incentives that are gonna be likely to be earned

05:29 as of now, that are not shown up on the books in 2024.

05:34 All right?

05:35 And then the other sites are overestimating the cap number

05:40 for some players because they presume

05:43 that the player is gonna have 17 active roster bonuses

05:47 in 2024.

05:49 Players who are on IR this year, like Daniel Ekele,

05:54 Matthew Judon, Calvin Anderson, they've been all missed games

05:58 so they're not gonna have 17 active roster bonuses.

06:02 So their cap number's gonna be, Devante Parker,

06:04 their cap number's gonna be less, all right?

06:06 - Okay. - All right.

06:08 And then over the cap, their effective cap number

06:13 is the rookie pool number, includes the rookie pool.

06:16 So they should track down what they think

06:18 the potential rookie pool number is.

06:21 I have the opinion that worrying about

06:24 what you're gonna sign the draft pick for

06:27 is a little bit much when you don't have to sign

06:30 the draft picks until right before the training camp.

06:35 You don't have to sign them.

06:37 There's no competitive gain,

06:39 advantages gained by signing them in April,

06:43 no competitive advantages lost by signing them

06:45 in late July, all right?

06:49 So those hopefully explains the difference

06:52 between my numbers.

06:53 And I'll just show you this, folks.

06:54 This number you hear, the 74.7 number,

06:57 that changes every week depending on

07:00 how people are progressing toward the incentives.

07:03 Like for example, Trent Brown didn't play.

07:06 So he's right now, they put him underneath

07:09 earning most of his incentives.

07:11 He starts playing, he'll go back to earning

07:13 those incentives and that number will go down, all right?

07:16 - And this is the, oh, you got more?

07:19 - Oh no, that's it, that's it.

07:20 - Okay, just making sure because this is why I come to you.

07:23 I don't know how this stuff works.

07:24 And also for anybody at home who doesn't already know,

07:27 Miguel is legitimately the only person

07:29 that you can trust on the internet

07:31 when it actually comes to the Patriots cap specifically.

07:34 How long have you been covering it?

07:37 - Hopefully not for long, since the 2000, early 2000.

07:40 I was just like, you might not be alive that long.

07:43 - I was alive, but I didn't start even following football

07:46 until like 2010, like 2008, that kind of range.

07:49 So yeah, you've been at this for a while.

07:51 I just need to make sure people know

07:54 who they're dealing with.

07:55 - Yeah, so like I say it's a pleasant coincidence

07:59 that the Patriots had this much success

08:00 since I started covering the salary gap.

08:03 It's a coincidence, not a correlation.

08:05 - Yeah, I'm not a math guy, but I know what correlation is.

08:08 And I think that's part on you.

08:11 But part of roster building process,

08:14 obviously you got to start cutting some dead weight.

08:16 And not to be rude, but I think it's fair to say

08:19 that Devontae Parker and Juju Smith-Schuster

08:21 this season have been just about that.

08:23 Devontae Parker signed a contract,

08:26 signed a new contract after camp,

08:28 because every day he's making deep catches.

08:30 He looked pretty good, signs it, the season starts,

08:33 misses the first game with a knee injury,

08:35 doesn't look like the same explosive player,

08:37 just not the kind of guy you expected

08:40 when he signed that deal.

08:41 And then Juju Smith-Schuster,

08:43 supposed to be the crown of your free agent class,

08:45 hasn't been anything that you expected

08:47 and has actually been below what you would expect

08:49 from most veterans.

08:50 So you got the numbers here.

08:52 What happens to the Patriots 2024 cap number

08:55 if they decide we're gonna reset the wide receiver room

08:58 outside of our young guys from last season,

09:00 Jack Glass, maybe Kendrick Bourne,

09:02 and we're gonna get rid of Devontae Parker

09:04 and Juju Smith-Schuster?

09:05 - Okay, so bring up Parker first, all right?

09:08 If they happen to cut him, all right,

09:11 they'll lose a little bit of cap space,

09:13 like less than a million dollars, all right?

09:15 It is what it is, the nature of the business,

09:18 because his salary is fully guaranteed.

09:21 And then you have the proration of his 2025 salary,

09:24 would hit the cap in 2024.

09:27 So you would get $6.3 million dead money, all right?

09:32 But then you also have a player replacing him.

09:34 So it's around, for him, it's a net,

09:36 for the Patriots, if they wanna start clean in 2024,

09:41 they could cut him, it's like a loss of a million dollars

09:47 is nothing for them, right?

09:49 The best bet for cap space was to trade him,

09:52 but who's gonna trade for him, all right?

09:54 But whatever, okay?

09:56 But you could just, and you could just start clean,

10:00 and then your 2025 cap would be off the books, all right?

10:05 And that $6.6 million that you would gain,

10:11 you could use that money for someone else.

10:14 Like maybe, oh my gosh, like a T Higgins, Michael Bittman,

10:18 oh, okay, you know what I'm saying?

10:20 (laughs)

10:21 Something like that.

10:22 - You're getting excited, man.

10:23 You're getting too excited.

10:24 - But I'm saying, this is gonna,

10:26 wow, I've thrown all those names, right?

10:30 There's gonna be some of these out there

10:32 that they could sign, all right?

10:34 And with that money, and you would have a low,

10:37 have them have a low cap number 2024,

10:40 and a huge higher cap number 2025,

10:43 but you would have that,

10:44 that would be in fact offset by the savings

10:47 from the David Devante pocket.

10:50 - Okay, that's huge.

10:51 - Yeah, so for, and for Juju, it's kind of the same thing.

10:55 - We'll go with Juju.

10:57 - Yeah, let's bring up Juju.

10:58 Like see, his deal is,

11:02 not the same, but he's a little bit more,

11:05 it's $2.67 million you would lose, all right?

11:08 His deal has got better, he's got a higher salary,

11:11 and that's fully guaranteed.

11:13 He's better protected by his salary structure.

11:18 That's why it's more, it's very important,

11:20 like for example, you know, people kept on saying

11:23 that he signed the same deal as Jacobi Myers, all right?

11:27 In fact, they did not.

11:28 Juju has better guaranteed money, all right?

11:33 So, but he also has more incentives too.

11:37 So it was a trade-off.

11:38 So he has to earn, to get to the $33 million,

11:41 he has to make his incentives, all right?

11:44 But the trade-off for him was he's got better structure,

11:46 guaranteed fully, he's gonna see the two years of his deal.

11:49 No matter what, he's getting paid $7 million next year

11:53 for his salary.

11:54 Might not be by the pages,

11:55 if they could get someone to take him, all right?

11:58 He, his deal screams that if you find someone

12:04 in the 2024 off season, either in free agency or the draft,

12:11 it seems to me that you could trade him for,

12:15 like do a trade pick swap, you know, for 2025 or 2026,

12:20 and just move on.

12:23 His deals, I don't know if you could move,

12:26 I think I put in the other column,

12:28 you might have to scroll over for the-

12:30 - Which one is it?

12:31 - For on Juju.

12:32 - Oh, yeah, yeah.

12:35 - Yeah, yeah, the post one trade.

12:37 - There it is.

12:38 - Okay. (laughs)

12:40 Yeah, I had, yeah, the post one trade one, thank you.

12:43 Yeah, so that's what I think is most likely gonna happen,

12:51 is that they're gonna trade Juju after June 1st.

12:56 And folks, you can't designate a trade like you can a cut.

13:01 All right, I was gonna,

13:05 just wanted to let you know that.

13:07 - Why is that?

13:08 - It's in the CBA, I don't know, so that's a great question.

13:11 Like there are things in about the CBA

13:13 that I would like to say, why is that?

13:15 All right, and one of them would be is like,

13:17 why can't you designate a trade?

13:19 Right, like why can't you trade cap space?

13:22 But that's more for the geeky,

13:25 let's just, I know you're a,

13:26 but that's a geeky kind of thing, so let's just move on.

13:30 - Hey, it's just two geeks, I'm the film geek,

13:32 you're the money geek. - Yeah, yeah, yeah.

13:32 - Because that's why, it's a bending of the minds.

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14:12 - Yeah. - All right,

14:15 so we talked about what they can do

14:16 to kind of shed some of the bad contracts

14:19 they have right now.

14:20 But I wouldn't say that they've got plenty of players,

14:23 - Oh, they're- - especially in this

14:24 2024 for agent class, who deserve to stick around,

14:27 especially as Zach Cox mentioned a couple of weeks ago,

14:29 all the players that they've drafted and not kept around,

14:32 even the ones that played pretty well for them.

14:34 So I feel like maybe this is the year

14:36 where you want to turn around,

14:37 especially in a true rebuild

14:39 and keep some of those guys around.

14:41 So from the 2024 class,

14:43 this is just amazing that you even did this.

14:45 I'm gonna put it up on the screen.

14:47 You have a list of players that you think are gonna stay

14:50 and who's gonna go.

14:51 I absolutely love this.

14:53 I'm gonna give you free reign.

14:55 Just whoever you want to talk about.

14:57 Explain this list.

14:59 Maybe we can start with who you think is gonna leave

15:01 since there's not as many of those of the better players.

15:04 - Okay, I think Trent Brown's gonna leave.

15:06 I think he has proven that he,

15:12 availability is not his strong point, all right?

15:16 I think that Mike Kinseki is going to leave

15:19 because he has not been targeted that much.

15:24 He wants to get the ball.

15:28 I don't know the man personally.

15:30 So folks, I'm just saying he wants to get the ball.

15:32 I think he would not stay here, all right?

15:34 I'll be shocked if Jalen Mills stays

15:37 because he has not,

15:39 his snap percentage as well

15:41 is going up in the last couple of weeks.

15:43 You know, he was down to like less than 10

15:46 a couple of times a game.

15:48 I think he's gone.

15:49 I think he can find more playing spot someplace else.

15:53 I think that Josh Ushi is gonna be one of those players

15:58 that gets signed, a Patriot that gets signed by,

16:01 to a big deal that in two years,

16:03 that he comes, two or three years, comes back.

16:06 - Okay. - He, okay.

16:07 And I'll say this, why?

16:08 I don't think that he should get paid in,

16:12 as a player who's 17 to $25 million range.

16:21 I think he should be paid as a role player.

16:25 He's a role player on the Patriots right now.

16:27 I think that what fits him.

16:28 I think if you pay him big money,

16:32 you're paying him big money to play a lot of snaps.

16:35 All right?

16:36 And I just don't think that that's him.

16:38 I think he's gonna have, he's gonna do that,

16:42 not gonna work out and then come back.

16:44 - Okay, so quick question on that.

16:46 'Cause PFO's Brad Spielberger mentioned

16:48 that the edge rusher market is kind of depreciating

16:50 because there's so many of these young guys,

16:52 like Byron Young, a great example.

16:53 You get him in the middle rounds,

16:55 he turns out to be a great pass rusher for the Rams.

16:57 So do you think that there's a possibility

16:59 the Patriots could re-sign Josh for cheap,

17:01 especially 'cause he's in a down year?

17:03 Or do you think it's kind of locked in,

17:04 like he's gonna go somewhere, get his bag

17:06 and it's not gonna work out and he's gonna be back?

17:08 - Define cheap means like, I don't know what cheap means.

17:11 For me, that's a 30% snap around 30 to 40,

17:16 10 to $13 million, that's the right range for him.

17:19 All right?

17:20 I don't know if you consider that cheap.

17:22 - That's fair.

17:23 - You'd be in the eye of the beholder.

17:24 All right?

17:25 For me, that's not cheap.

17:27 'Cause that's right around the right value.

17:30 All right?

17:31 Cheap for him would be like six to $8 million.

17:35 All right?

17:36 - You know what I mean?

17:37 Like a--

17:37 - Yeah.

17:38 - This is his second contract.

17:40 He should do his, him and his family,

17:43 he owes that to them to do his,

17:47 get as much money as he possibly can.

17:49 'Cause he might, he's not promised a third chance

17:51 at the bag.

17:52 - Absolutely.

17:53 - Another chance at the bag.

17:53 So he should get as much money,

17:55 try to get as much money as possible.

17:57 And if he has to convince a team that he can be good

18:01 at 60 to 70% of the snaps,

18:03 then he should try to convince them.

18:05 It's not, you know what I'm saying?

18:07 I don't, I think he owes it to himself

18:10 to try to get that much money as possible.

18:12 (laughs)

18:13 - That's fair.

18:14 That's fair.

18:14 - Riley Reeve, gone.

18:16 Zion Montgomery, gone.

18:18 Okay.

18:19 Will Greer, he's a third quarterback.

18:22 I think he's leaving the whole place out, whatever.

18:24 'Cause I think, oh my gosh.

18:26 I used to be a Mac Jones guy.

18:28 So I think he knows--

18:29 - Tough times for us.

18:30 (laughs)

18:33 - Let me pull one out for the man.

18:34 Hold on a minute.

18:35 (laughs)

18:37 Okay.

18:41 And I have, oh my gosh, I'm sorry.

18:43 I sent you this and I realized

18:45 Hayse's actually signed with 2024.

18:47 Take a look.

18:48 - Okay.

18:49 Okay.

18:50 - I think Matthew Slater retires.

18:52 Therese Hall, it's been proven.

18:55 It's like a little thing.

18:56 If you're not on the Patriots.com webpage

18:59 while you're injured on IAF,

19:02 then they're not gonna sign him back.

19:03 They're not taking him back.

19:04 - Did he?

19:05 I thought he was gone from an injury release settlement

19:08 or something like that.

19:08 - Oh no, no, no.

19:09 - It might have been somebody else.

19:10 It might have been somebody else.

19:11 - Yeah, so no, no, no.

19:13 Every settlement with two players, he wasn't one of them.

19:16 So like on the NFL public salary page,

19:19 they have an account.

19:20 And so my count matches up to this exactly.

19:27 And that's including Therese Hall.

19:28 That's how I know he's still on there.

19:30 But if you go to the Patriots.com,

19:32 you will not find Therese Hall's name on it.

19:34 So he's not coming back.

19:36 - All right.

19:36 - As, okay.

19:38 Okay, and then see, I should say this.

19:40 The snap percentage is as of week 10.

19:44 Like people who are on IAF, of course,

19:46 each week, their percentage will go down

19:48 'cause they're gonna be missing more and more games.

19:51 - Pay attention to detail.

19:54 That's why you're the best, man.

19:58 That's why you're the best.

19:59 - All right, thank you.

20:00 But so I do wanna show off the other amazing graphs

20:03 that you have.

20:04 'Cause you also had some potential contracts

20:06 for their top extension candidates

20:07 or their top resigning candidates.

20:09 So here is how it looks for Mike and Winnie.

20:12 Break this one down for us.

20:13 - Oh, I just think he's like the guy from the Packers,

20:17 Jenkins, Elton Jenkins.

20:18 He should just be building off of that deal.

20:20 Like really, he's in the same kind of boat.

20:24 Versatile players, players who could play inside, outside.

20:29 And Jenkins has, you can see at the bottom,

20:31 and as I point to it like a big deal,

20:33 like you can see me pointing,

20:35 at the bottom that they have,

20:36 Jenkins has incentives for a Pro Bowl.

20:39 It's 'cause a bigger incentive

20:41 and he has to make the Pro Bowl

20:42 at left tackle or right tackle.

20:43 If he makes the overall time at left tackle, right tackle,

20:46 he gets paid more money.

20:48 I think I'm just building off of that deal.

20:50 I will see, like you keep on putting out the film

20:53 from the right side, city side, Michael.

20:56 Folks, I really, really want them to have continuity

21:00 on this offensive line.

21:01 It's just been, it's not been, I'll say this for Mac.

21:05 He has had, I keep track of the O-line combinations, right?

21:09 He's had very little continuity to reverse his three years.

21:12 - Yeah.

21:13 - All right.

21:15 So whoever, I think, let's just say,

21:18 2000, for 2021 first round pick.

21:23 He'd be better off if he had,

21:25 he knew that he's gonna have a right hand side

21:29 of city south and Michael Warno

21:31 for the next three or four years, all right?

21:34 It'd be so much, oh my gosh, that'd be awesome.

21:38 All right.

21:38 So every time you tweet that stuff out,

21:42 I'm like, sign him, sign him.

21:45 - Me too, man, that's why I'm sending it out.

21:47 I'm hoping somebody in the building will be like,

21:48 this guy's onto something.

21:50 - Yeah, it's like, oh my gosh.

21:51 It'd be, you know, so like, just going to talk,

21:56 like in 2024, let's say they sign,

21:59 they draft someone high, all right?

22:01 The time to spend money in free agency

22:03 is the first, his first Ricky deal.

22:06 Because you, you know, most free agents deal

22:09 is basically two years,

22:11 and let's see what happens after that, all right?

22:13 So you get the guy, you get somebody for two years,

22:16 and this third year, all right,

22:18 the year he needs to make sure he shows out

22:20 to get his fourth year, fifth year option picked up,

22:24 you can switch over to another,

22:27 you have to make some moves in free agency that way.

22:30 So this is the time to do it,

22:32 especially if you're going to draft the quarterback high,

22:35 this is the year to sign players, okay?

22:38 - Yep, yep.

22:38 - And I think this is a fit, and I'm not,

22:40 I think this is a fair deal for both sides of the play,

22:43 for both sides of the team, all right?

22:45 Let's see what happens.

22:47 - Yes.

22:48 I said this, I tweeted out earlier today,

22:54 I'll be surprised if they sign,

22:56 extend the player during this bye week,

22:58 it's not been, that's not, they don't, never done that.

23:01 But I think if I was to, if I was the Patriots,

23:06 and I went get someone to stink off,

23:08 I would, off of them, I would do that.

23:11 I would extend someone, this, of this, this bye week.

23:15 - I like it.

23:16 - Okay.

23:17 - Keep your guys, and for this,

23:20 because he had his ankle injury and all that,

23:22 would you include anything that's like,

23:24 okay, if you get hurt, this?

23:26 Or do you think, hey, that was an anomaly,

23:28 he's been healthy the rest of his career,

23:30 let's just give him his money,

23:32 and trust that this won't happen again?

23:34 - Okay, so I didn't put,

23:36 you could have those playing time incentives,

23:38 but I'm not going to go really low on them,

23:42 because he's been playing,

23:43 you could put them playing,

23:44 but I would have a top tier,

23:46 maybe like, oh my gosh,

23:48 he's going to be close to like 80,

23:51 not 80, 85, 90, something like that.

23:54 If you are concerned about his playing time,

24:00 then you shouldn't even be offering him a deal.

24:02 - Okay, fair.

24:03 - If you are that concerned about him being available,

24:06 then this $17 million number should go down

24:09 to like $13 million with a whole bunch of incentives.

24:12 Like you should just go off

24:14 and then build off of what you did

24:15 with Sebastian Vollmer's deal, all right?

24:17 - Okay, okay.

24:18 - He had a ton of incentives

24:19 based on playing time and pro bowl.

24:21 If you don't think,

24:23 this $17 million is based on him being,

24:26 you expect him to play all 68 regular season games, okay?

24:30 - Right.

24:31 Okay, fair enough.

24:33 All right, now the next big name

24:36 that's someone who seems like

24:37 he's pretty likely to come back, all right?

24:39 Kyle Duggar.

24:40 He's going to be on the older side,

24:42 especially for his safety,

24:43 because he entered the league pretty old already.

24:45 - Yes.

24:46 - He's been a good player for New England,

24:47 and they're one of the few teams

24:48 that really understands how to maximize his safety.

24:52 But at the same time,

24:53 he's having a down season this year.

24:54 He's had some plays,

24:56 but to be totally honest,

24:57 they've been more opportunistic than they've been,

24:59 oh, look at Kyle Duggar going out there

25:01 and making stuff happen.

25:02 So based on all of that,

25:04 what do you think,

25:05 well, this is what you think the deal is going to look like.

25:07 Why is this what you come up with?

25:09 - I came in like the top,

25:12 top 10 safety thing, all right?

25:16 But less than the safety tag.

25:18 It's a short deal because he's so old player, all right?

25:24 Like as you mentioned,

25:25 but I do guarantee the first,

25:27 it's fully guaranteed the first two years.

25:29 Like I said, he gets that money.

25:31 So he's going to get,

25:32 after two years,

25:33 he's going to get close to $30 million with me, all right?

25:36 That's not bad.

25:38 That's not bad money, okay?

25:40 Um,

25:40 oh, this, oh, I should have,

25:44 I should have went and went back to Devin's deal

25:46 and looked at,

25:47 I think this deal,

25:49 if you're just for the cap,

25:51 and I shouldn't say this unless I know this for a fact,

25:53 so I'm going to stop.

25:54 All right, I don't know this for a fact,

25:55 so I'm going to stop.

25:56 Okay.

25:56 - He's a professional, man.

25:58 - Okay, okay.

25:59 Okay, let's just stop there.

26:00 This deal is a top 10 deal.

26:02 I think he's worthy of that deal.

26:06 I don't think that's an overpayment.

26:08 I don't think it's an underpayment.

26:10 I think it's a fair deal.

26:11 And that's, and when I do these deals,

26:12 I try to come up with a fee that I don't want to like,

26:14 have the Patriots hate.

26:16 There's sometimes the Patriots sign players to like, wow,

26:19 my gosh, I can't believe that player signed for so low.

26:21 Like for example,

26:23 the deals that David Andrews has signed,

26:25 like Julian Allen signed,

26:26 I'm like, oh my gosh,

26:28 these guys should have got more money.

26:29 And then sometimes they're overpayments.

26:31 Um, okay.

26:33 (laughing)

26:34 - Huggers is going to probably be one of those guys where,

26:37 - And more, better for the team probably.

26:39 Again, just cause there's so many factors that go into it.

26:41 - Yeah, yeah.

26:42 - Like not a position he's older.

26:44 Oh, I'm sorry, go on.

26:44 - Yeah, no, no.

26:45 I mean, I think there's a fear there.

26:47 And that's all I got to say.

26:48 I think it's a fair deal.

26:49 We'll see what happens.

26:51 I think he is going to be out of the two.

26:55 He might be the last, the latter one to sign.

26:58 - Okay.

26:59 - Okay.

27:00 I think it's more likely that Awano

27:02 is, would get extended this year than Duggar.

27:05 I think Awano would probably get signed,

27:07 would be probably signed in early March

27:09 as opposed to right before the start of the league year.

27:13 - I hope so, man.

27:14 He's the one guy from this class where I'm like,

27:16 if they lose Duggar, it stinks.

27:18 They'll be okay though, I think for the most part.

27:20 Like he could bring Adrian Phillips back,

27:22 he drafted, like all that.

27:23 And when it was the guy where he can play,

27:25 he could be a great guard for you

27:27 or he could be a really good tackle.

27:28 I feel like with all the lack of continuity they've had,

27:31 he has to be a priority.

27:33 But there's also guys on the roster past 2024,

27:36 who are playing really well this season.

27:37 You got Christian Barmore,

27:39 looking like he's finally that well-rounded,

27:41 game-wrecking type of presence

27:42 the Patriots are hoping he could be

27:44 when he kind of slipped to them in the second round.

27:46 And then you got Ramond Drey Stevenson,

27:47 started the season off a little slow,

27:49 but he's starting to look like himself

27:51 for the past few weeks.

27:52 So we also talked about 2025 free agents

27:55 and what you thought could go on with that class.

27:58 Here it is, another beautiful chart.

28:00 I am so excited about this.

28:01 You are the best.

28:02 Break it down for us, my man.

28:03 - Okay.

28:04 So the cut guys, guys,

28:06 I think they got to cut just the Cree caps.

28:08 So that might add $74.7 million.

28:11 That's before these cuts.

28:12 Okay.

28:13 And that's before they cut JC Jackson.

28:15 I think they got to cut JC Jackson.

28:16 All right.

28:17 So those are, so I think those three,

28:18 and then you notice I'm picking the older guys

28:20 or in the case of Calvin Anderson,

28:22 a guy who can't, who hasn't been able to stay healthy.

28:25 All right.

28:26 And I should say with the extended guys,

28:28 I shouldn't really say,

28:30 could possibly be restructured.

28:32 Like for example, Matthews Judon,

28:34 I could see him either redoing his deal or extending them.

28:37 Like I really think they're going to extend Jabril Peppers.

28:40 I really think, and this running back market, all right.

28:44 If I was Ramond De Stevenson's agent, all right,

28:48 I would try to get an extension.

28:50 All right.

28:51 But I'm not trying to get the bag.

28:53 I'm not trying to get what,

28:55 what Sarkoen Bollickley is trying to get

28:58 or Josh Jacobs is going to get.

28:59 I'm trying to get somewhere in the

29:01 six to $8 million range.

29:02 All right.

29:03 I'm trying to get like, you know,

29:05 some good guarantees in 2000 for 2024 to 25.

29:10 And if I hit the pro bowl, I get an incentive for that.

29:12 I try to get, you know, that kind of stuff.

29:15 Well, like follow up on like James White deal,

29:17 where I have total scrimmage and incentive

29:20 instead of a rushing incentive or a receiving as in,

29:24 I try to get total yards, total scrimmage yards incentive.

29:27 They like Sean Wade.

29:30 He's been playing more.

29:31 And he's going to be a guy.

29:33 You could sign to like a Jelani Tavai,

29:36 a Daniel Eccle deal, a really low deal,

29:39 like somewhere in a one to $3 million range.

29:42 It's not going to take up that much cap space.

29:44 People are going to go, oh my gosh, oh my gosh.

29:46 And like they signed these guys.

29:47 They don't have to be able to sign any big.

29:49 It's just like in,

29:51 when the cap's going to be $250 million

29:53 and you sign the guy for two to $3 million,

29:57 that's 1%, maybe 1% of the cap.

30:01 - 1,000 times, yeah.

30:03 - So don't, I don't, I'm not gonna advise,

30:07 tell people how to live, but I just advise you,

30:09 don't stress out about a 1% deal.

30:11 (laughing)

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31:35 to get 50% off.

31:36 - Christian Balmour, oh my gosh.

31:40 - Big man.

31:41 - Oh, he's playing, he's,

31:46 if the patrons aren't gonna pay him, somebody will.

31:49 And it might as well be the patrons.

31:50 I'm like, he, 'cause he, another,

31:53 imagine he plays, he keeps on doing it

31:55 and he does that next year, next year, all right?

31:58 - With everybody back.

31:59 - Oh, oh, oh.

32:00 I was looking up the 2025 defensive tackle tag.

32:06 - Seriously, seriously, man.

32:08 He's playing like one of the,

32:10 like, I don't wanna say,

32:11 I'm not watching the entire league every week,

32:13 but I mean, I can't imagine there's a whole lot of guys

32:15 that you wouldn't expect from like, you know,

32:17 the top, top of the list.

32:18 - Yeah, yeah.

32:19 - He's playing better than Balmour is right now

32:20 in terms of being a pass rusher and a run defender.

32:22 - Okay, so the stays guys, I could see them restructure,

32:27 some of those guys restructuring the deal, all right?

32:30 You know, like maybe converting, especially if I was wise,

32:33 or I would definitely try to get an extension, all right?

32:39 But I could see the patrons,

32:41 because some of these guys are getting close to 30

32:45 or something in the case of David Andrews

32:48 and Jonathan Jones, they're over 30 years old.

32:52 I could just see them playing out

32:54 and the patrons hopefully have said,

32:56 "Hey, we got someone in the pipeline

32:57 to replace you in 2025."

33:02 I mean, I'll be pleasantly surprised if,

33:05 I wouldn't be shocked if David Andrews retires next year.

33:12 You know what I'm saying?

33:13 You know, especially if at training camp,

33:17 Jake, his namesake is showing out as a center.

33:21 You know what I'm saying?

33:22 - Yeah, that's true.

33:23 - You know what I'm saying?

33:24 If he's showing, if like, ah, you know what I'm saying?

33:26 And instead of, if it's like, let's say Jake plays well,

33:30 and then it's like, does David just didn't say,

33:33 I'm just gonna just hang it up

33:34 rather than get beaten out by a rookie,

33:36 a second year high guy.

33:38 You know what I'm saying?

33:38 So like, these guys, and then we already know,

33:42 I already, all these other guys,

33:46 most of the guys that stays, low money deals,

33:49 I think they're gonna stay.

33:50 I could see them not staying, okay?

33:54 I have Mac Jones, I don't know why I have Mac Jones

33:57 zero for his life.

33:58 I must've been a copy and paste era.

34:00 I, folks, here's my crazy thought.

34:03 His salary is so low for 2024.

34:06 Even if you draft a guy, number one or number two,

34:09 like Caleb Williams or Drake May,

34:11 you can keep Mac Jones and just let him battle him.

34:14 - Thank you, thank you.

34:16 He's cheap.

34:19 - Until you get, you know you have the guy,

34:23 you should keep on getting, attempting to get the guy.

34:26 Like Mac is not the, right now, Mac is not the guy.

34:31 All right?

34:32 But doesn't mean that you should just get rid of him

34:37 just for sake of get rid of him, all right?

34:39 He's still gonna be the best.

34:42 He could be an effective backup, and at his salary,

34:46 if you wanna spend money in a free agency,

34:49 you have to give something up on the roster, all right?

34:53 You might also keep it,

34:55 so might also spend low on a cheap backup,

34:57 and that'd be in Mac Jones.

34:59 - Amen, brother.

35:00 All right, now we're gonna get a little creative here.

35:04 We're going outside the Patriots, all right?

35:06 Another awesome chart you got here.

35:08 I was gonna ask you, who are the 2024 free agents

35:12 that you would be most excited about for the Patriots

35:14 to potentially spend some of that big money on?

35:16 So, here's your list,

35:19 and this will be the last one that I bother you with.

35:21 What do you got?

35:22 This is a fun, I like this group.

35:24 This is a good list of names here.

35:25 - Okay, so, oh, okay.

35:29 I can't figure out what to,

35:30 I'm still trying to figure out

35:31 what to do with left tackle in the future,

35:32 'cause I say let the Patriots get a bottom goal, all right?

35:36 So, I would, if I could sign Tyrone Smith

35:40 for like to a one-year deal, so I have a gap.

35:43 So, I mean, so then let's say I go,

35:45 the plan is draft the quarterback high in the first round,

35:48 then draft the left tackle like you did in the second round,

35:51 like you did with Matt Light, all right?

35:53 In the back of the day, all right?

35:55 2001, all right?

35:57 Then you give him a year behind Tyrone Smith,

36:04 and then he takes over, all right?

36:06 We need a tight end, 'cause they have anybody signed,

36:09 like you said quite recently in your tweet thread, all right?

36:13 So, I'm coming, and but there's no,

36:14 and the funny thing is, there's not that many good,

36:18 or what I'm saying, game-changing tight ends out there,

36:21 that's gonna be out there,

36:22 so you would have to depend on cuts.

36:24 So, we got Hunter, Henry, Dalton Shields, Noah Fant,

36:28 and Mike Kisecki again, all right?

36:30 And then, oh my gosh, I didn't finish my,

36:34 I didn't sort this right, 'cause I don't have,

36:36 I started off with a defensive tackle at the top,

36:38 then I wanted to get, be, you said premier positions,

36:42 I happen to think for,

36:43 because the Patriots like to scheme their pressures,

36:47 I went, instead of going defensive ends,

36:50 and linebackers, and edge rushes,

36:52 I went with defensive tackles, all right?

36:54 - Oh, man. - Okay, okay.

36:58 So, these guys I went with,

36:59 I could see,

37:02 I could see 'em not doing this,

37:05 going with defensive tackle,

37:07 if they extend Christian Baltimore, all right?

37:09 - Okay, yeah. - And then,

37:11 the wide receivers, oh my gosh,

37:14 if they were to get, I think, one of these four,

37:17 I'd be, I think Patriots' D'Angelo would be happy, all right?

37:22 - I think so, Gabe Davis scares me a little bit,

37:24 but the rest of the guys on that list,

37:26 they're dudes, they're dudes. - Okay, fine, fine,

37:27 I'm just, okay, all right?

37:29 I have to, like, I know a couple of guys,

37:34 I know who cover the Bengals, do what I do for the Bengals,

37:36 they keep on saying it's Tee Higgins

37:38 is not gonna hit free agency, all right?

37:40 Well, all right, I just don't know if

37:43 the owners, it's not that he's not good,

37:48 they just spent a lot of money on Barrow,

37:49 and they spent a lot of money on Chase,

37:51 I just don't know how much more money

37:53 they're gonna spend out of their wallets.

37:54 The Bengals are changing, though,

37:56 so the Bengals are changing, so they could,

37:58 they could probably do it,

37:59 because they have the cap space to do it.

38:01 And then I had, and as,

38:03 cornerback is always a premier position,

38:05 but I didn't go for a number one,

38:07 because I think Christian Gonzalez is a number one, all right?

38:10 - Yes, sir. - So I wanted to get someone

38:12 who would, a younger guy than Jonathan Jones,

38:16 so I can put in for a number two,

38:18 or a number three cornerbacks,

38:21 and I picked some names, I love, I mean,

38:23 Kenny Moore used to be on the Patriots,

38:25 I was, I keep on forgetting who they kept over him,

38:30 and I should look that up,

38:31 who, why they cut him, 'cause he should be on the Patriots,

38:34 'cause he's actually one of those guys who's a,

38:36 under after free agency,

38:39 so he's got multiple contracts.

38:41 - Yeah. - So at the end of the,

38:42 if he keeps on playing,

38:44 he is gonna be in a list of all time earners

38:48 as an undrafted free agent.

38:50 - Are you serious? - Yeah.

38:51 - I didn't even know that. - Yeah, yeah, he's,

38:53 he's not, I mean, non-quarterbacks, all right?

38:55 'Cause, you know, 21 was gonna be the top,

38:58 but he's gonna be up there,

38:59 because he's played, he's to have a long career,

39:01 and he's been making like, eight million dollars a year,

39:05 so, you know, so he might--

39:06 - Get that money, Kenny!

39:08 - Yeah, he's been getting the money.

39:09 (laughing)

39:12 So that's one of those guys I liked.

39:14 I'll say this, I think that the Patriots are gonna,

39:18 need to and should spend a lot of money next year.

39:24 - Yeah. - Especially if their plan

39:25 is to draft a quarterback high.

39:27 I will argue, and I've heard,

39:31 if you listen to Jason Fitzgerald's podcast, "Over the Cap,"

39:35 you've heard him make that argument.

39:38 His shows run too long for my,

39:41 so I wouldn't recommend, all right?

39:42 They go sometimes two hours,

39:43 I'm not gonna remember what show he's in,

39:45 but he's made that argument too, all right?

39:47 - Okay. - Okay.

39:49 - I mean, I agree.

39:51 - They're going to have the cast space,

39:54 they can create more cast space.

39:56 They are,

39:58 they have the means,

40:05 now the will and the vision.

40:08 That's what I think-

40:13 - Whoever's vision it is.

40:15 - No, no, it's whose vision it is.

40:16 I think that's the problem that's been with the Patriots,

40:20 'cause as an overall theme of structure,

40:25 of buildings, Ross, they haven't,

40:27 as you can say, you have the misnomer on graphics,

40:29 but it doesn't, some of the moves don't mesh together.

40:33 For example, if you were to keep Isaiah Wynn,

40:38 all right, and pick up his option,

40:41 then you shouldn't have moved him as a spot, all right?

40:47 - Yeah.

40:48 - 'Cause every player's gonna know

40:50 that's gonna cost them money, all right?

40:51 - Yeah.

40:53 - I still, as a guy, I got this wrong, and I'll say this.

40:58 I didn't think they were gonna trade Shaq Mason, all right?

41:01 - I didn't either, that was a heartbreaker.

41:02 - Okay, but I never, you never got it,

41:06 what I say, I wanted them,

41:07 I still haven't figured out, like, why are they doing,

41:10 I know they created cap space for them, all right?

41:12 But the point that I'm trying to make is,

41:16 creating cap space is great,

41:18 but cap space doesn't make play on the field.

41:20 - Right, what are you gonna do with it?

41:22 - You know what I'm saying?

41:23 It's like, literally, the point of cap space

41:25 is to obtain talent.

41:27 And if Shaq, and I, like, for example,

41:30 and Shaq Mason, all right, he was a talented player.

41:33 To let him go,

41:35 and it seems to be, it couldn't have been,

41:40 if you evaluate him saying,

41:41 you thought he was not gonna be any good anymore,

41:45 that's telling me the guy who made that decision,

41:47 is he shouldn't be making that decision

41:48 on the defensive line, anyway.

41:50 I mean, 'cause he's been playing well,

41:52 he's been playing so well for so many years back,

41:55 you know, since then.

41:56 - Still, still.

41:57 - What do they see in him that said,

42:00 we gotta let him go and trade him?

42:02 You know what I'm saying?

42:04 I don't know, I just think the theme,

42:06 and the theme, this year's theme should be just,

42:09 let's start over, boom, clear it out.

42:12 (laughing)

42:13 - From your lips to God's ears, Miguel, I'm serious.

42:17 Because like you said, they have the assets finally.

42:20 Usually they're picking at the end of the rounds,

42:21 middle rounds, now you got premium draft picks,

42:23 you got money, it's time for a rebuild.

42:26 And we're gonna have some other discussions about this.

42:28 We got plenty of time, Miguel, you will be back.

42:31 But for now, I'm gonna say thank you so much

42:33 for your time, brother.

42:34 I'm excited that you finally got on the show.

42:37 For anybody who isn't familiar with you or your work,

42:40 please let the lovely people know

42:42 where they can find yourself.

42:43 - I'm on Twitter @patscap.

42:45 I don't, I've been on there for a while, you can find me.

42:50 And P-A-T-S-C-A-P, Papa Alpha, Tango,

42:57 Sierra, Charlie, Alpha, Papa.

42:59 Yes, I was in the service, God bless.

43:01 (laughing)

43:02 - Thank you for your service, brother.

43:04 Happy Veterans Day to you.

43:05 Happy belated Veterans Day to you.

43:08 Thank you again for coming on, I appreciate you, brother.

43:10 Thank you all for tuning in and getting to experience

43:14 how amazing and clearly detail-oriented

43:17 (laughing)

43:18 that is, what are the absolute best resources

43:20 for Patriots knowledge there is.

43:22 Thank you all so much for tuning in.

43:24 Take care of yourselves, take care of each other,

43:27 and we will see you next time.

43:28 Peace, everybody.

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Breaking Down Patriots Cap Health and 2024 Outlook w/ Pats Cap | Patriots Daily

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