NBC Sports Boston's Chris Forsberg joins us to cover all the angles heading into the 2024 NBA Finals. How will the Boston Celtics approach this matchup with the Dallas Mavericks? How do we contain Luka Doncic? What are our hopes for Kristaps Porzingis?
Plus, would you take current Jayson Tatum's shooting percentages or a mystery box?
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Plus, would you take current Jayson Tatum's shooting percentages or a mystery box?
Please LIKE this video and SUBSCRIBE to the channel!
Check out last week's underrated plays vid: https://youtu.be/q2j9fR3pgrk
️Subscribe to the podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/first-to-the-floor-a-boston-celtics-podcast/id1351038879
Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/firsttothefloor18/
Watch live Celtics games with us: https://playback.tv/celticsblog
Check out Spooney's latest column on CelticsBlog: https://bit.ly/3UCITHv
JOIN OUR DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.gg/H75UWjmtya
#bostonceltics
#celtics
#postgame
#firsttothefloor
#jaysontatum
#jaylenbrown
#nba
Category
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SportsTranscript
00:00Welcome back to another episode of First to the Floor.
00:27I'm Ben Vallis.
00:28Thank you for joining us.
00:29How are we doing?
00:30Well, alongside me, as always, Wayne Spooney and Jake Eisenberg, but tonight, we're very
00:34happy to welcome back one of our favorite guests from NBC Sports Boston, Chris Forsberg.
00:38Forsberg, welcome, man.
00:39How are we doing?
00:40What's going on?
00:41I don't know if you can hear my dog barking in the background.
00:43He's also excited to be here.
00:46Kemba is not ready, is also agonizing over this painful wait to get back to actual basketball.
00:53That's a great dog name, elite dog name, Kemba, hell yeah.
00:58The story, I do have to preface all the stories, is that we don't just name everything Celtics
01:02related around here, but during the pandemic, we had lost our dog shortly before that, and
01:10we said we weren't going to get another one, and then the kids sort of said, well, we have
01:13a lot of time now, so let's get a dog, and I agreed, and we were kind of watching him
01:18on the puppy cam from afar, and he had a green collar, and so we decided to go with a Celtic
01:23themed name in honor of the green collar, and Kemba and Edge bark as smart, which either
01:32way it was going to end badly.
01:36Everyone says they should have just named him Tatum, had the longest chance of sticking
01:39around, but he's good, and his knees are okay right now.
01:44I was going to ask.
01:45Check the hip.
01:46No issues so far.
01:47That's good to hear.
01:48Well, look, Forsberg, thanks for coming on and being part of one of, I think, a thousand
01:54series preview pods that are circulating the podcast for you at the moment.
01:58Before we get into, I guess, the X's and O's of the series and the defensive matchups and
02:03things like that, I just want to ask you, what's the overall vibe there in Boston?
02:06I asked this podcasting from the distant town of Sydney, Australia, not being able to put
02:11my finger on the pulse of what the vibe is heading into game one of the finals there,
02:15and I guess the vibe around the city, but also the team and there at NBC Sports Boston
02:19as well compared to 2022.
02:21Yeah.
02:22I'm never in the city except for games, so I don't know if I'm like, I can tell you what
02:26it is in the suburbs, and people are asking me about the series, but they also don't understand
02:31why it's a month and a half away before we actually play basketball.
02:35I think people are excited about what they've seen from this team, that the opportunity
02:40is there in front of them, as opposed to ... I think I saw a note today that each of
02:45the last four finals or whatever, they've been underdogs against the Lakers and against
02:49the Warriors.
02:52This does feel a little unique in terms of the pressures on them based on having been
02:57there and all that, but I don't think that's a bad pressure for them to have, and I think
03:01that experience should bode well for them.
03:03If they play to their capabilities, they should be hoisting a banner soon.
03:09I think there's an excitement about that.
03:11I think it'll all culminate Thursday.
03:14I think it'll be pretty crazy around the garden, and I don't know, especially once Kyrie walks
03:18in there, what it's going to be like, but yeah, I think there's an excitement that ... I
03:24just wish we didn't have to wait what feels like three months to dive into.
03:29I always joke that I wish we had a football schedule where it's just one big game every
03:33week and all the buildup, and now I'm done this, and I'm like, man, no, let's have every
03:38other day, let's do something.
03:40Well, I can say the vibe in Morgantown, West Virginia, is electric.
03:44At least two people I work with asked me about the Celtics solely because of Joe Mizzoula,
03:49but I feel like I have to address why I look like I'm glowing.
03:53Yeah, everybody's like, Spoonie's absolutely radiant.
03:56Like I'm Dr. Manhattan from Watchmen.
03:59I don't know. My screen is super bright right now, and I don't know how to turn it down,
04:03so I'm sorry.
04:04You're just going to have to deal with it.
04:05Same. I look a little washed out, too, but I'm just joining the club.
04:08I'm going to blame my 807-year-old MacBook.
04:11Yeah, it's my screen beaming over to Boston to hit Forsberg as well.
04:17Yeah, well, the town of like a thousand people that I live in, the guy that works at the
04:21grocery store is a Celtics fan, and so what are the odds?
04:25And so I'll be shopping, and I'll see you out the corner of my eyes like, how are you
04:29feeling, Celtics Mavs?
04:32Oh, after lose two, it's like, how are you feeling?
04:34I'm like, not good, not good, brother.
04:37And so it's, you know, it's great.
04:39I've got surprisingly one Celtics fan at the grocery store that I get to check in with
04:44outside of the thousands I'm talking to every day here, though.
04:49Yeah, Forsberg, speaking of Joe, because I'm just going to keep bringing him up for the
04:53rest of the show, I think.
04:55Obviously, in 2022, we had a different coach.
04:58Things happened.
04:59Mizzou is there now.
05:00Have you noticed anything different?
05:02I thought you were going to say, have I noticed, have I noticed there's a new coach?
05:05Realize that this is an Emei-Udoka's team?
05:08No, like, and I know the turnaround was way quicker in 22, but have you noticed anything
05:13different about like mindset or strategically the way Joe is preparing these guys for the
05:18finals compared to Udoka?
05:20Yeah, it's just so hard.
05:21We've only been there for a couple of practices here, and like they took a couple of days
05:24off after the win.
05:25They took a couple of days off the last couple of days, even though they told us they think
05:29they went pretty hard on Sunday.
05:30We just probably weren't allowed out there.
05:32So like, Chris, that's putting his stuff behind the scenes.
05:35We don't get too much of a glimpse of that.
05:37But, you know, like all I can go up based off is like the way the players are approaching
05:42it and how they're talking about this opportunity.
05:45And, you know, you probably heard the soundbites, right?
05:48Like the idea of Tatum saying not everybody gets a second chance at this, Al Horford
05:53savoring every last minute of this experience on his 38th birthday.
05:57And I think there's an appreciation for getting back to this stage, but also an understanding
06:03of, OK, this is what everything's been building towards.
06:06Right. And like they kind of got to get over that last hump.
06:10And I think they're more equipped to handle it.
06:12I think they understand the craziness of this week.
06:16Like on Wednesday, we'll do a little media day at the Garden where both teams are there.
06:20And it's sort of like that one big ramp up to opening night on Thursday.
06:26And, you know, one thing I think they've been very good at is they've had a few of these
06:31breaks in the action, both in the postseason.
06:33I think about, you know, IST breaks and coming out of the deadline, the trade deadline
06:40and or All-Star break.
06:43It just feels like they've done a good job being able to kind of crank it back up.
06:47And you hear Joe Mazzullo talking about about staying in the fight.
06:51So I think they'll be ready.
06:52Like Joe is the first one to admit that it can go either way.
06:56You can either come out super rusty.
06:58But it's not like the Mavs haven't had a little bit of a break here, too.
07:01So very interested to see what the energy level is there.
07:04Those first few minutes are probably going to be clunky no matter what.
07:07So much emotion, so much energy in that building.
07:11But then they'll settle in and we'll see where they're at.
07:13But I do think just having been there, they won't be overwhelmed by it.
07:16It won't be like, oh, my God, it's the final stage.
07:21It's more like, OK, this is what you've sort of been working towards.
07:25Yeah, on the long break, the Celtics actually have reps
07:27because, you know, the break between the like, I mean,
07:30the whole end of the regular season to the Miami series.
07:33They smoked Miami in game one.
07:35They smoked Cleveland in game one.
07:37They went up 12-0 against the Pacers, I believe, in game one of the Eastern
07:42Conference Finals, which they ended up winning.
07:44But yeah, so like they actually have reps in this spot.
07:46But on the Missoula Emei thing, like so many people still revere Emei
07:52and obviously he did a good job here.
07:53But I think a big piece of that is like the mentality piece of like
07:57he was just and he was very outwardly like, you know, classic
08:01traditional sports movie, like call on the players,
08:05the P word and the B word.
08:06And like that and that and that's that's fun, like in the moment.
08:10But like Joe has been preaching mentality
08:14like all season long once he finally figured out
08:16like who he was as a coach, once he got a chance.
08:19And this team all year has proven like to be mentally strong,
08:22to bounce back in big moments, in big spots, like no losing streaks
08:27in the playoffs or the regular season.
08:29And I think that like the mentality and like the mental toughness
08:33in a series against a player like Luka is going to be so, so important
08:37because it can be like really demoralizing, like what Luka did
08:40to the Minnesota Timberwolves in game five.
08:42Like, I don't think that's going to be something that's going to break
08:45the Celtics when a great player like that has those moments.
08:48But like on the Mavericks offense and Luka Forsberg,
08:53how do you kind of see them trying to match up with the with the Mavericks?
08:58Is there anything like you want to prioritize or you see them doing?
09:02So it's funny because on the Luka thing, you know, it's right.
09:04Like you just got to be mentally prepared that he's going to get his points
09:08and he's going to hit tough shots and it's going to be infuriating.
09:10He's going to look like he's gassed like 15 different times during the game.
09:13And then he's going to pull up and hit a logo shot.
09:15You're going to be like, how the hell is this guy doing this?
09:17And, you know, you just got to kind of be strong enough to to move forward.
09:21I think the Celtics have been good about that.
09:22You know, the number Joe brought up the other day was how the Pacers shot
09:2560 percent on non layup twos, you know, the shot you're trying to give them.
09:30And then they're shooting 60 percent on it.
09:31And like if Nembhard hit one more mid range jumper, I was going to be like,
09:35what? Come on.
09:37It's like it's infuriating.
09:39And yet you just have to trust that in a way it's better.
09:43They're hitting twos and threes and like play the math game.
09:46So, you know, I'll be interested.
09:48It's certainly a different challenge going up against the Mavs.
09:52And I'll be fascinated to see.
09:54You know, Scott was was was talking to me this morning.
09:57We were talking about that, that March one game.
09:59You go back and watch the tape, like really intrigued to see how the Celtics
10:02defend Luca, you know, true holiday took a lot of the assignments.
10:06The first half of that game.
10:07Then Jalen took the baton in the second half and wanted that match up
10:10and really made him work on the other end.
10:12I think making Luca work and making Kyrie work is like
10:16just going to be a huge part of this.
10:18You got to put him in every action and hunt those mismatches.
10:21And, you know, that gets a lot easier if KP's out there.
10:24And, you know, if he's anywhere near what he was during the regular season
10:28and like, I honestly don't know if they even know that I keep saying it.
10:30You know, there's a ton of optimism about where he is.
10:33But until you pull that string and see what happens, like, does he go?
10:36Does like, does it, does it hold up?
10:38And I know he wants to be out there, but you got to, got to go out and see it.
10:43And so I just think that that's the bottom line to me is, is I really
10:48like the matchup on paper.
10:49I really like where they're at with a healthy KP, but until we see it, like,
10:54I want to see how much, just how much you can only gauge.
10:57So how far the Mavericks have come?
10:59I like the new pieces, even though I hated it at the trade deadline.
11:02I've been wrong about this team all season long.
11:05We'll see if the Celtics can take advantage of some of those matchups,
11:08but it comes down to, you know, being disciplined and, and,
11:10and being a little bit mentally tough.
11:13Yeah.
11:13I just want to say on that defense, I think you're right.
11:15I think like, and this is why I love having Joe like as our people want to say
11:20he's stubborn and I think that's true, but my way of saying it is also like,
11:25he's a mental alpha.
11:26It's like, he's not going to be overwhelmed or overreact to Donovan Mitchell
11:31going seven for 10 on pull up threes in game three.
11:34He's going to make Donovan Mitchell work so hard to the point where he got a
11:38calf injury and played himself out of the series.
11:40Like, can you make Luka score?
11:42Like, can you dare Luka to score 60 points a game?
11:45Because Luka wants to make the right pass.
11:47Luka wants to get into the paint, throw those late passes.
11:50You cut the lobs off, you make him work, you make him work.
11:52And I know pod Maverick, if anyone's looking for Maverick content is incredible.
11:57They've been giving me some great insights, but it's like,
12:00they've been saying coaches just freak out.
12:02They see Luka going off and they start to bring help.
12:04And then you bring help on Luka.
12:06He's just going to make the right play.
12:07But Joe is just like, I believe in the math.
12:11I believe in our guys' ability to overwhelm this team over a game or over a series.
12:16And so I believe in their ability to like to stay solid over a series.
12:21How often did Joe bring help this year?
12:23Right?
12:23Like, I'd have to go back and count it up, but I mean, they were games,
12:27they were getting torched and he was just like, nope, not going to do it.
12:30Like not going to overreact.
12:32And I'm not saying he knew that a situation like this was going to happen.
12:35I think he understood like when you're constructed like the Celtics,
12:38your biggest advantage is that you shouldn't have to overreact in those
12:42situations that you have to trust that your defenders are going to be solid.
12:46And so I just think that's what the mindset you're going with.
12:48Now, again, Luka is a different beast.
12:49And I do think there's little things you can do.
12:51You don't have to blitz everything, but like, can you cheat off and show them bodies
12:55and try to keep them out of the pain and go make them go left?
12:57Whatever, like whatever you think is going to be the highest chance of success.
13:01But yet again, a lot easier to say, yes, you need you need you need you need Derek
13:07White to be better than he was on defense against him in the regular season.
13:11You need Jalen Brown to want to take on that challenge
13:13consistently and you got to do it for five to seven games.
13:16So let's see if they're let's see how mentally tough Joe has made this team.
13:22Yeah, we talk about this with the Jokic matchup all the time.
13:24Like you're not going to nullify Nikola Jokic and the same applies to Luka.
13:28But like, can you shave off like five, 10 percent of their output?
13:33Because if you can do that, plus limit their role players,
13:35then you're in with a chance for success.
13:37And Jalen Brown, only 11 possessions all regular season.
13:40Obviously, we paid to play the Mavs twice throughout the regular season.
13:43Luka, when defended by JB, four of ten from the floor,
13:46he only only got off one three point attempt and missed it.
13:49So his output is somewhat limited, obviously not completely limited by JB,
13:54picking him up full court and doing his best to tie him out before he even crosses half court.
13:58That's, I think, a matchup we're going to see.
14:00And this is obviously not a hot take, not a take unique to myself.
14:03JB on Luka, I think, is going to be a consistent
14:05matchup throughout the rest of the series.
14:07But holistically, I'm a little more concerned.
14:10Like we did our rewatch of the March one game live on playback yesterday.
14:15And you think logically, like you trap Luka,
14:18you open up that short roll pass for him and you try and make like whoever it is,
14:22like PJ Washington, for example, try and play make out of that short roll.
14:26Because that's going to be a more limited output for the Mavs
14:29than Luka doing literally anything else.
14:32But yeah, you're right.
14:32Like Joe doesn't send those doubles at Luka very often
14:35and just tries to wear him down throughout the game.
14:37So it might be one of those situations where Joe's stubbornness actually works
14:41to our benefit for a change.
14:44Spoonie, like...
14:45Oh, it's worked so badly.
14:46It's worked so...
14:47I know, I threw that in there.
14:49We lost two games in three rounds.
14:53I have high expectations.
14:56Do you think like we'll play...
14:58Obviously, we'll switch one through four.
14:59I think that's been pretty consistent throughout the playoffs.
15:02Do you think we'll play drop with Al and KP?
15:06Do you think we're going to see our bigs like come up to the level?
15:08Do you think we're going to see him drop back?
15:09How do you think we're going to manage that?
15:11Okay, so what I think Joe did game one was he put KP on PJ Washington, right?
15:18And they want KP in that action.
15:20So that takes away the very first thing the Mavs want to do,
15:23which is have Lively and Gafford catch lobs.
15:26And be the guy who's setting the screen.
15:27They're great screen setters.
15:29So they're already kind of operating from like behind the pace a little bit
15:33because it's PJ Washington setting the screen.
15:35The problem with having KP up to the level, I feel like,
15:39is that Luka is so good at hitting guys in the short roll
15:43that he will find that space even over or around a 7'3 slender man like KP.
15:50So I think ultimately what it comes down to for me
15:54is that we will see everything on defending the pick and roll.
15:58We will see them blitz rarely, but it'll happen.
16:01I think the traditional like deep drop is going to happen quite a bit,
16:05especially when it's Drew covering Luka
16:07because he's so good at getting around screens.
16:09I think we'll see him come up to the level sometimes.
16:12I don't know.
16:14I can't remember us ever really like hedging and recovering
16:16or doing that type of coverage.
16:18But we might see it.
16:19This might be the time.
16:20This is the guy to like kind of pull those tools out of the shed.
16:23I wonder if we'll see some zone.
16:25That kind of scares me against Luka's passing.
16:27But, you know, we might just try it for a couple of possessions.
16:31You just need to keep him off balance
16:33because if you keep throwing him the same rote defensive coverage,
16:38he is going to absolutely eviscerate.
16:40It takes him like two possessions to figure it out.
16:42And then it's over.
16:43So I think we'll see everything.
16:44But I think we will start in drop with KP on Washington, assuming KP is healthy,
16:50which means I think whoever is guarding lively or Gafford
16:54needs to be extremely active in off ball help
16:57because you can kind of ignore those guys
16:59unless they're creeping into the dunker spot.
17:01And even then, if you're destructive enough,
17:04you can make that pass really difficult.
17:06So I think that's the key for me is what we do with KP.
17:10And then whoever it is on the big,
17:11whether it was JB quite a bit in that first half,
17:14at least is very destructive off ball.
17:16Yeah. What do you think the Mavs will try and take away from the Celtics, Forsberg?
17:20Is it going to be the usual just like nullify the Jays and make everyone else score?
17:23Or is it more of a holistic run everyone off the three point line?
17:26How do you think the Mavs are going to approach that?
17:28Yeah, it's interesting, right?
17:30Like, I think that if you go back to the math game,
17:32you'd probably want to take away that three point shot.
17:35But, you know, I think every team comes in with the idea of make everyone else beat you.
17:40And then the Jays make all the right plays
17:42and everyone starts knocking down threes and you get out of that.
17:45You get out of that and you're like, all right, let's just take away the three.
17:47And then you realize it's a lot easier said than done against this team.
17:50And then you get especially I just, for me, it comes down to if KP is healthy,
17:54I don't know how they defend all the potential options
17:57because they're just going to be able to put them in such bad spots throughout it.
18:01But I do think ultimately,
18:03like they must know the Celtics are going to try to run everything at Luka,
18:08at Kyrie, like to try to really make them work
18:11no matter how good their defense is in those moments.
18:14And again, it typically hasn't been great.
18:16So can you take advantage of that
18:19and just really just force them to be disciplined until they crack?
18:23And then there's going to be like advantageous matchups out there for you.
18:26As long as I got to preface everything,
18:28like if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy,
18:31I really feel good about the Celtics, Celtics, Celtics.
18:37Oh, I think you muted me.
18:40No, it's yeah, we lost you Forsberg.
18:42You're muted.
18:43We muted.
18:45The ancient MacBook has hit a mute button here.
18:50Did the mic die?
18:52Yeah, maybe your mic died.
18:54That's all right, we can pick it up
18:55while Forsberg does a little bit of troubleshooting there.
18:57But Jake, Spoonie, I know you guys have a lot of thoughts
18:59on how the Mavs are going to approach this.
19:02Yeah, the Mavs don't switch a ton.
19:05They play a lot of drop
19:06and the Celtics have been awesome in the pick and roll offensively.
19:10Tatum has been just like money in the pick and roll
19:13all playoffs, Derek White, True Holiday.
19:16These guys have just been so good offensively.
19:18And yeah, Forsberg's absolutely right.
19:19Like I think he's back now.
19:22Hopefully.
19:22Yeah, we got you, we got you.
19:24Yeah, I've become very confident on the KP thing being back.
19:28But that one second of him moving his feet
19:32in that hype video, the Celtics post,
19:34I'm like, all right, I'm in.
19:36Here he comes, Tony Dobbins.
19:37Yeah, there we go.
19:39The Celtics, I also don't want them to overhunt.
19:42At the same time, it's like,
19:43yeah, you want to go at Luker and Kyrie,
19:45but at the same time, just run your offense, man.
19:47Like you're so hard to stop.
19:49I get that PJ Washington and Derek Jonas-Junior
19:51did have to be doing a good job.
19:53Not guys that historically can check Tatum and Jalen consistently.
19:58I've been going back to the Oklahoma City Thunder series
20:00because I think like there's a lot of parallels
20:02between the Thunder and the Celtics as far as like teams go.
20:05But the Thunder were a top five offense, top five defense.
20:08I was very high on the Thunder going into that series.
20:11But their offense completely fell apart.
20:12Defensively, the Thunder did a really good job.
20:14But the Mavericks did not.
20:16Part of that as well, Luker would like,
20:18injury-wise has looked to get healthier.
20:20So that's something to keep in mind.
20:21But defensively, the Thunder were awesome.
20:23Their offense was just catatonic at times.
20:26And a part of that was Josh Giddey.
20:27Part of that was Lou Dort.
20:29They just dared those guys to prove
20:31that they were actually good shooters.
20:33And the regular season numbers did not hold up.
20:36Chet became very, very hesitant.
20:39I know Horford and Porzingis.
20:40Horford, man, the trigger on this guy, dude.
20:42He's had how many games in this postseason
20:44where he's had 10 plus three point attempts
20:47and knocked down six plus in a couple of games here.
20:49So that's just not going to be like, again,
20:51going back to the mental toughness of this team.
20:53Like, I think it's more likely that the Mavericks
20:56try and dare you to bomb away,
20:58at least that's what they've done so far.
21:00And as opposed to running you off the line.
21:01And if you're running them off the line,
21:02the drive and kick game gets started.
21:04Mental toughness.
21:05Al Horford, when he had those two games
21:07where he missed 10 straight threes,
21:09he comes back in game five against Cleveland,
21:11knocks down six plus.
21:13Mental toughness just to believe in your shooting ability.
21:17Like Derek White, true holiday, man.
21:19These guys have just been money.
21:21Peyton Pritchett's been money.
21:22So just believe in your offensive system.
21:24Take those quick threes, shots on goal.
21:26Don't let this Mavericks defense get into you.
21:30I've been saying these guys remind me of the heat light.
21:33Like good help, playing solid,
21:37some switchability, some bigger guys like PJs,
21:40like Bam Light, like nowhere near Bam,
21:42but like playing him that way.
21:44So like, just take the shots that are available to you
21:47and knock them down.
21:48Like, just believe in your system.
21:50Yeah, real quick, Dallas had a 112 offensive rating
21:53against Oklahoma City.
21:54That's like below, it's not crazy.
21:57We had a 120 against Cleveland,
21:59who is a similarly good defense to Oklahoma City.
22:02And Forsberg, Eric Weiss in the chat said
22:04he expects Dallas to play a lot of zone.
22:06I was wondering if you agree with that.
22:08And I would like you to note
22:10that we have a 150 offensive rating
22:12against zone defense in the playoffs.
22:13Wow, how many possessions is that?
22:1632, I think, 38.
22:18Yeah, so I always worry about small sample size,
22:20but I guess I would say I'm more worried
22:22about Celtics going zone than I am Dallas going zone
22:25because every time Celtics goes zone,
22:27it feels like other team just dominates for a stretch.
22:30Is that a cat that just walked by?
22:31Yeah, that's right.
22:32Okay, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.
22:35So I think, obviously, I think if you're worried
22:40about potential matchups, it's probably easier to try
22:43for Dallas to spend some time in that zone.
22:46What is their success rate?
22:49Do we have numbers on that, Spoonie,
22:50as I make you go through Synergy and do my job?
22:53Yeah, as in like, what is their defense?
22:55Yeah, so you said 150,
22:57that's Celtics 150 against zone this year,
23:00or is that teams against Dallas?
23:02That's just in the playoffs.
23:03Okay.
23:04So Dallas' zone defense is a 126 defensive rating,
23:09which is not great.
23:10Oh, hold on, that's all season.
23:12In the playoffs, it's 115, 116.
23:16Slightly better.
23:16So like you can see their strides,
23:18but like also like everyone's defensive rating
23:20probably gets a little bit better in the postseason
23:21because games get a little clunkier.
23:24No, I mean, again, I think they're going to be,
23:26that's going to be the hardest problem for the Mavericks
23:28is figuring out how do they consistently
23:30stop the Celtics offense.
23:31And you guys brought it up, that Oklahoma City series.
23:34I think the Thunder averaged something like 98 points
23:36in that you're not winning playoff games like that.
23:39And they were so close,
23:40they almost fucking forced a game seven too.
23:42Right, so if you can do that
23:44and you're averaging under a hundred,
23:45like what are the Celtics going to do in the losses, right?
23:48So like, I feel like if the Celtics play the offense
23:50to their capabilities,
23:51if they maximize the shot margin,
23:52and look, these are the things Joe's going to stress
23:55because he wants to win the shot margin,
23:57he wants them to rebound.
23:58Rebounding might be the hardest part of it,
24:00just, but you know, if you get a seven foot three guy back,
24:02maybe that gets a little bit easier.
24:03So I do feel really confident about the Celtics
24:07on that end of the court.
24:08I think it really just comes down to the one thing we do see
24:11is when teams start making shots
24:14and the Celtics kind of get, you know,
24:16or I don't know if it's a chicken before the egg thing,
24:19right, because Celtics often starts struggling
24:22all of a sudden their defense lags
24:23or is it vice versa?
24:24Because is it the defense gets torched
24:26and all of a sudden their offense goes cold
24:27because they're not hunting a normal matchup.
24:30So whatever the way it is, like they got to avoid that.
24:33They just can't fall into that lull
24:36when either it's things are going too easy
24:39for Dallas on offense
24:40or the Celtics are struggling
24:42to create their own offense.
24:42They've got to be able to snap themselves out of that
24:44or at least dig in on the defensive side.
24:47Yeah, we've got to avoid the usual case
24:49of the Celtics beating themselves.
24:51Sorry, Spoonie, what do you got?
24:52Oh, I was going to move on, Ben.
24:54So if you have anything else, please go ahead.
24:56Yeah, cool, no worries.
24:56We're going to get to a quick ad read.
24:58When we come back, we're going to talk
24:59about confidence levels.
25:00We're going to talk about areas for concern
25:02and perhaps somewhat related.
25:03We're going to talk about crew stats for Zyngas.
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26:09Now, confidence levels.
26:10This is a question of all of you guys.
26:12Forsberg, we'll start with you, obviously.
26:13You're our guest.
26:15You know, I feel like you are similarly aligned with us
26:18that you have some reservations
26:20about like potentially jinxing the team.
26:21Correct me if I'm wrong,
26:22but we will try and talk about openly confidence levels.
26:25How confident are you?
26:26Like, if you look at the betting numbers, for example,
26:29everything is very much in favor of the Celtics.
26:32Online, there's a little bit more of a divisive discourse,
26:35but I think it was Eric Weiss in the chat earlier
26:37mentioning there's a crazy divergence
26:39between betting odds and just the general voice
26:42of what might happen in this series.
26:44How are you feeling confidence-wise
26:45heading into this matchup?
26:46Irrationally good.
26:48Like, I keep saying this
26:50and I've said this throughout the playoff run.
26:51It feels weird to be as confident in the Celtics
26:55as I think we all have been
26:58because we're just conditioned
27:00that they're going to make their lives difficult.
27:02But for the better part of the season,
27:05they've been able to avoid that.
27:06And now I think that's what makes
27:08some of those speed bump losses hurt more.
27:10It's why I lose my mind when they lose to the Lakers
27:13without AD and LeBron.
27:15It's like, I mean, come on, what are we doing here?
27:18And, but on the other hand,
27:20some of those game two losses obviously
27:22were just in the moment hurt
27:24more than they probably should have,
27:25but losing at home is unacceptable.
27:27And so I do think they've learned.
27:30I do think everything about this team
27:32has trended positively.
27:34And again, I come back to it.
27:36Like if we all kind of, I don't want to say knew,
27:40but we kind of felt like
27:41they were going to be on the stage
27:42and maybe it's just the relief
27:44that Jokic isn't on the other side.
27:46Now like, look, Luke is going to be a challenge,
27:47but like we knew what was going to really
27:50stress these Celtics.
27:52And the fact that they don't have to go through them
27:55feels pretty encouraging.
27:57So still a challenge in front of them.
28:00I don't want to get overly confident,
28:03but I said, I've been saying this on our shows
28:04because people are like,
28:05oh, you know, this one's going seven games.
28:08And I've sort of landed on Celtics in six
28:12is probably the most likely scenario.
28:14But if you made me look at the numbers,
28:16I would bet that Celtics in five is more likely
28:20than Celtics in seven,
28:21because I just feel like that's how it's going to go.
28:24You're going to have a Luka game in there.
28:27What's the Mavs roadmap to more?
28:30And maybe I'm just underrating what they can do,
28:35but I feel really good about this team
28:37as long as they don't lose their damn minds.
28:40Yeah, I was listening to you and Scal
28:42on the Celtics Talk podcast.
28:43Great podcast, by the way,
28:44listening earlier today.
28:46And Scal was talking about,
28:47it's got to be Celtics in seven
28:48because we want that party,
28:49that celebration at home.
28:51Personally, maybe this is easy for me to say from Australia,
28:54but just win the fucking thing.
28:55I don't care where you win it.
28:56I don't care if you win it in like a shed
28:58somewhere down South.
28:59Just win the championship, please.
29:02Spoonie, Jake, confidence levels.
29:04And like, specifically, what makes you confident?
29:05Is it a certain matchup?
29:06Like, how do you think the Celtics
29:07might cook in this series?
29:09Spoonie, you go first.
29:11All right. Okay. All right.
29:13Objectively, after I...
29:15So I have, real quick,
29:18I have a Dick Magnum piece coming out on Wednesday
29:21where I will be doing the finals.
29:24It's 2,500 words and I'm not quite done yet.
29:26So yeah, buckle up.
29:32Objectively, after looking at things,
29:34like, I just, it feels like Celtics in five to me.
29:38But emotionally, I don't.
29:40I have, my confidence level is at like a two.
29:44Like, I'm terrified, dude.
29:45I'm absolutely terrified.
29:47But everything you look at, you look at that March,
29:50both games we played against them,
29:51the March game specifically,
29:53because, you know, they had their guys
29:54that they traded for.
29:56It just feels like they don't really have any answers for us
29:59on the defensive end.
30:00Like, they can't stop us.
30:02And the way they've been stopping teams,
30:04and you said it, Jake,
30:06is like daring their bad shooters to make shots.
30:09Our one through eight does not.
30:10We don't have one.
30:11A bad shooter, right?
30:13Like, I guess if you could pray,
30:15Sam Houser is still in a slot.
30:17But if you give him enough wide open shots,
30:19he's gonna shoot himself back into a rhythm.
30:21So that I think is a bad solution.
30:24They should try that actually.
30:25Please try that.
30:26Please try that.
30:28So it's just hard for me.
30:29I think exactly, Forsberg.
30:31Like, I don't really see the path
30:32to Mavs winning three games
30:34other than just like the Giannis argument.
30:37Like, well, they've got Giannis.
30:38Well, they've got Luca
30:40is kind of the argument, I suppose.
30:42But I'm feeling cautiously optimistic,
30:44and I'm also a boiling stew of anxiety.
30:47Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:49That's what I'm saying.
30:49I'm like just constantly oscillating
30:52between I'm feeling really confident
30:54to just a pit of terror inside of my soul.
30:57And so, but like, you look at the betting odds,
31:01the lowest odds are Celtics in five,
31:04then Celtics in seven,
31:05and then six, and then four.
31:07So it's like, that is statistically
31:09the most likely option.
31:10And like this, the matchups,
31:12it was always Jokic was like,
31:14that's the one team that we just do not have
31:16any answers for.
31:17You're not going to stop Luca.
31:18We have just way better answers for him.
31:22And there was just a mental thing
31:23with the Nuggets as well.
31:25It felt like that for whatever reason
31:27that they kind of had us in those two games
31:29where they've owned the Mavs
31:31in the last couple of years,
31:32obviously a different team,
31:33but there's a mental side of things
31:35where you feel comfortable.
31:36Jaylen Brown loves playing against Luca.
31:38Jason Tatum loves playing against Luca.
31:40That's a big part of it.
31:42Also just like listening to like real,
31:44like Mavs content creators being like,
31:47this is going to be pretty surprising
31:48if the Mavs actually win this.
31:51It's kind of just like,
31:53can Luca go to a place,
31:56like there's actually not that many examples
31:58of like the overall talent gap being this wide.
32:01And then the team with like the best player
32:03actually winning the title,
32:05like the 2011 Mavs kind of being an example
32:08where like LeBron,
32:10I mean, I would expect Luca
32:10to play much better than LeBron
32:12in that year, 2014 Spurs,
32:14even the 2013 Spurs,
32:15if Ray Allen doesn't save LeBron James
32:16with that three in the corner,
32:17like Kawhi wasn't Kawhi yet.
32:20Tim Duncan was on the down,
32:21like LeBron was just like
32:23peak of his peak of his peak of his powers.
32:26If you've got the massive talent gap
32:28and Tatum can like,
32:30he's not going to match him score for score,
32:32but overall impact,
32:33I think people are going to learn,
32:34like Tatum is going to be able to play
32:3645 minutes a night here.
32:37Guard multiple positions,
32:38guard lively,
32:39rebound like 11 at night.
32:41Like I think he can close the gap.
32:43I'm rambling here.
32:44I like it, you're talking yourself into it.
32:50Oh, I think they should win.
32:52They should win.
32:52Please win.
32:55You're muted Ben.
32:55You're on mute Ben, yeah.
32:58Yeah, this is what this series is doing to us.
33:00I'm on mute, Jake's rambling.
33:02What did you call it, Spoonie?
33:03A soup of anxiety?
33:04An anxiety stew?
33:06Yeah, a boiling stew of anxiety.
33:08There we go.
33:08That's definitely me.
33:09Look, if I had to talk about concerns
33:11and Forsberg,
33:12I'm keen to hear your thoughts on this as well.
33:14The idea that Luka,
33:15of all people in this world,
33:16could just go absolutely god mode for two weeks
33:18and torture any opponent
33:19is a possible reality.
33:20I think our pick and roll defense
33:22has been not exactly stellar all season,
33:25even in the playoffs.
33:26We've seen that be a vulnerability for the Celtics.
33:28And then we saw Luka chirping at Rudy Gobert,
33:32chirping at the opposition crowd in the last series.
33:35Does he hate Kristaps Porzingis?
33:37Is there some bad blood there
33:38that we should be concerned about?
33:39And is that going to be fuel for the Luka fire
33:41that we should be wary of?
33:42I need to dig deeper into this.
33:44I feel like it's more of a situation
33:46where Kristaps gets blamed for that not working
33:49because it can't possibly be Luka, right?
33:51It's got to be the other side.
33:53So I think Kristaps has got to have motivation
33:56coming into this series,
33:57which I kind of like.
33:58Not only is he,
33:59man, I haven't been able to play for 10 games
34:01and I want to be out there in the finals,
34:02but now having those guys,
34:05they didn't think we could do this.
34:08And obviously, he's got some talent around him,
34:10but I feel good about where Kristaps is mentally
34:13and his ability.
34:14I feel like he played good in those New York games.
34:17Every time he played against a team
34:19that had a little bit of history,
34:21it brought out a good side of him.
34:23So I think that could work well for this team.
34:27Obviously, there's three things
34:29that worry me about the Mavs.
34:31Luka going supernova for two weeks
34:33and the Celtics.
34:34You always hear Brad talk about
34:35how the Celtics had their worst two weeks
34:37against Miami last year
34:38and it's the worst possible time.
34:40So that happening.
34:41Luka going crazy and the Celtics
34:43hitting their one two-week bump in the road
34:45after being so consistent all year.
34:48Two would be,
34:49I have no idea how Kyrie's going to respond
34:51to the booing.
34:54Sometimes he can fuel off that.
34:56I'm more worried that Luka's going to get fuel off of it.
34:59Oh, they're booing my guy
35:00and that makes me mad
35:01and I want to go score 70 points against this team.
35:05More so than like Kyrie going for a big number.
35:07I think he's going to be,
35:08you know, I'll be interested to see
35:09what kind of series he has.
35:11He'll probably settle in at some point.
35:12Maybe the fans will too,
35:14but interested to see that dynamic.
35:16And the third thing that's scared,
35:18the third thing that scares me is
35:20if they, does Grant Williams get a ring?
35:25I love Grant.
35:26Yeah, like, but the idea of Kyrie
35:29raising a title and Grant getting a ring
35:32after the Celtics sort of decided to move on,
35:34that would be tough to digest, right?
35:36You know, and I would be,
35:37I would be happy that Grant got his ring
35:39because I really like Grant.
35:41And I really kind of want to watch him
35:45watch a game in this series
35:46because like, it's got to be weird for him.
35:48So many friends on both sides and all that.
35:52But yeah, it's an interesting dynamic
35:55after the Celtics decided to kind of,
35:57how they decided to shuffle up their roster.
35:59Surely Grant's going for the Celtics, right?
36:01The Mavs kind of like traded for him
36:03and then kicked him to the curb,
36:04like dumped him to Charlotte.
36:06And he spent so much more time with the Celtics.
36:08He, I think he's on record.
36:10Whenever he made his prediction
36:11that his team could play,
36:12I think he picked the Celtics in there.
36:14And so I sent him a message the other day
36:17and I think he's in Indonesia now.
36:19And so if I can track him down
36:22when he's backstage side,
36:23I'll try to get his prediction.
36:25But I don't know, like,
36:26I wonder if he'd show up and it would be fascinating
36:28to see him watch a game.
36:29I just think, you know,
36:31where do the loyalties go
36:33and his relationship with Tatum?
36:35But, you know, that again,
36:36you could potentially get a ring if that team wins.
36:38Like, doesn't that kind of cloud how you look at things?
36:40I don't know.
36:41Like, it's going to be fascinating.
36:44Is he going to have one of those split jerseys
36:45that's half Luka, half Tatum?
36:47Like the parents wear at their college games.
36:49Yeah.
36:50Just half Grant and half Grant.
36:52You mentioned KP a second ago,
36:54as far as like concerns.
36:56It sounds like we've seen everything
36:58you've seen Forsberg as far as glimpses
37:00into what his level of participation has been.
37:03Do you get a sense,
37:04even if it's just your own uninformed suspicion
37:06that he'll be back for game one?
37:08Yeah.
37:08Like I think all signs have trended towards
37:11like he'll be out there for game one.
37:12And I mean, you think about it,
37:14what 40 something days since the actual injury,
37:18you know, trying to do quick math in my head,
37:20six weeks, you know,
37:21that feels pretty good amount of time
37:24to come back from it.
37:25Even if you throw it in that
37:26old four to six week window,
37:29you know, but we don't know because it's weird.
37:30I hadn't heard about a soleus strain in my life
37:32until this year.
37:33And now like everyone's got one.
37:34They're like, they're like the hottest things
37:36in the streets.
37:37They're like, everyone's, everyone's getting one.
37:40So I hope he's okay.
37:43I like to say it's hard to gauge
37:45when he's just kind of skipping around
37:47the three point line and taking shots.
37:48I know.
37:49How about this one?
37:50Oh, oh, oh.
37:52Slow mo.
37:53Slow mo.
37:56That actually looks worse in slow mo
37:58because Tony Robbins is literally doing
38:00like he's just nothing, doing nothing.
38:01But Chris is moving, dude.
38:03He's moving.
38:04That's all that matters.
38:05The fact that he's out there
38:06is what's most encouraging to me.
38:08I will say like, just from everybody you talk to
38:11behind the scenes,
38:12like they're not trying to hide anything.
38:14There's just this general sense that,
38:17you know, they don't know.
38:19They, they like, they're hopeful
38:20that he is ready to go.
38:22That he is, they've put in all the rehab.
38:24They've taken all the diligent steps
38:26and giving him the greatest chance
38:27to get back out there.
38:29But I keep using the analogy,
38:30like you pull the string on the toy
38:33and off it goes and you just don't know.
38:35Like it could be great.
38:36It could be fine.
38:37He's, he's out there.
38:38He's back to himself
38:40or, you know, it starts bothering him again.
38:42So like they won't know until it's full speed
38:44and they're getting more of a glimpse
38:45of the full speed behind the scenes than we are.
38:48So they're confident.
38:49The fact that no one has been pessimistic
38:52leaves me optimistic.
38:54Yeah, when he came back,
38:56I think it was against New York.
38:57I was just looking,
38:58I thought I had a tab with his stats
38:59from his first game back
39:00after his previous calf injury.
39:02I've closed the tab because I'm an idiot,
39:04but he was cooking the Knicks in that game
39:07and like on fire from three
39:08and really came back effective.
39:10Slightly different situation.
39:11He's been off for longer.
39:12Obviously an NBA finals game,
39:14vastly different to that
39:15of a mid regular season game.
39:17But we take from the data that's available,
39:19which unfortunately in my case is not available.
39:21I've closed the tab.
39:22But like I said,
39:23I took a glimpse at it earlier
39:24and that is reassuring if nothing else.
39:26Quick question,
39:27then we're going to get to an ad break
39:28and then Jake's going to bring us back
39:30with his statistical mystery box,
39:32which is an exciting segment
39:33we've invented earlier today.
39:36Do you think that we see Xavier Tillman
39:38in this series?
39:39Like I said earlier,
39:40we watched the March one matchup
39:42from earlier this year
39:43and Tillman featured pretty heavily,
39:45especially defensively,
39:46switching onto Luka.
39:47And then what about Peyton Pritchard?
39:49Do you think that this is a series for PP
39:50or is he just going to be too,
39:52you know,
39:52ridiculously targeted by Luka in this one?
39:55You know,
39:55but I think his numbers against Luka
39:57were pretty good.
39:57I mean, super small sample size,
39:59same deal, like 12 possessions
40:00or something like that.
40:01But I think Luka tried to go at him
40:02and was maybe one of three,
40:04one of four against him.
40:06I don't mind if teams like,
40:07much like Hauser,
40:08if they twist themselves into pretzels,
40:09trying to go at what they perceive
40:12as weaker defenders.
40:14I think Pritchard has the potential
40:15to hold up.
40:16And if he shoots well,
40:17like, you know,
40:18the numbers for those,
40:18all those bench guys have been,
40:20the net rating is still off the chart
40:21for Hauser,
40:22which is like,
40:23makes no sense.
40:24Guy hasn't hit a shot in like three months
40:25and he's plus 15.4,
40:26like on court in the playoffs.
40:29So, you know,
40:29he's making good things happen
40:30when he's out there,
40:31at least keeping teams honest.
40:33Tillman will be interesting.
40:34I do think,
40:35you know,
40:36there were opportunities like that
40:37over the course of the year
40:38where you saw them
40:39kind of specifically throw him out there
40:41to see if he could stay in front of
40:42various, you know,
40:43smaller teams,
40:45you know,
40:46show the defensive versatility,
40:48could play,
40:49can take the switches
40:50and stay in front of guards.
40:52I wouldn't be surprised if,
40:54if only for to rest the wear and tear
40:57on Porzingis and Horford,
40:59if he got occasional time,
41:01I still think Luke gets first crack
41:04and, you know,
41:06same deal,
41:06like didn't feel at first,
41:08like it was gonna,
41:08it was gonna be a Luke series against Indy
41:11and, you know,
41:12hopefully the wrist is okay enough
41:14to be out there,
41:15but I'll be interested to see
41:17did Luke play a lot in those?
41:19I have this,
41:20see, I keep just asking you guys the questions
41:21that I could actually already have the answers to.
41:23Did Luke play a lot in those,
41:25any of those games?
41:26Like it doesn't feel like it, right?
41:27Like there was more,
41:28like let's experiment with Tillman
41:29and see what they've got.
41:31We watched it yesterday
41:33and I don't think Luke played at all in that game.
41:34I'm not sure if he was out or not,
41:36but yeah, it was all Tillman.
41:38That was like one of Tillman's best games
41:39was against the Mavericks yesterday.
41:42He, it's like the type of,
41:45the body type versus Luca
41:46is just very different for,
41:48like compared to him versus like SGA.
41:50It's like Jaden McDaniels is in a vacuum,
41:52is a better defender than Jalen Brown,
41:54but it's like you want the 240 pound sturdiness
41:58and like Tillman kind of provides the girth,
42:02the acreage to quote Ben Gulliver
42:05or to make Luke get around you
42:08in a way that I don't think some other guys do.
42:10So I think there's potentially a spot for him.
42:12I like the double big look,
42:14whether it's Tillman now
42:15or Al Pozingis just like size and toughness out there.
42:19If I remember right when they traded for Tillman,
42:23the first thing I did is I looked up defensive numbers
42:25against some of those Western Conference guys
42:27and everyone kind of defers to that
42:29Anthony Davis series in the playoffs last year.
42:31That was a great, you know,
42:32like again, that's the big stage.
42:33You want to see that.
42:34But I want to say his numbers against,
42:36you know, like Luca were pretty good.
42:38And so if he's proven he can handle that matchup
42:42or at least is like
42:44that they've been willing to throw him
42:45in that matchup is encouraging.
42:47And I do think that there just could be a spot
42:49where invariably, especially on this stage,
42:53we always say like,
42:55you're not going to go deep in your bench
42:56and then you have the Leon Poe game
42:58and you have the, you know, big baby game or whatever.
43:01Like I do think there's going to be opportunities
43:03for these guys to maybe put their mark on the series.
43:08Yeah, absolutely.
43:09Definitely feel good about Tillman,
43:10at least defensively on Luca.
43:12But I may well end up eating my words
43:14in a few days time.
43:15We'll see when we come back,
43:16Jake Eisenberg is going to run us through
43:17the Jake Eisenberg statistical mystery box first.
43:20Here's a quick word from GameTime.
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45:05All right.
45:05So the statistical mystery box gimmick
45:09is based off the family guy mystery box thing.
45:15So if anyone's unfamiliar, I've got the clip right here.
45:17It could be anything.
45:17It could be anything.
45:18It could be the boat.
45:20Hold on.
45:22You have a choice.
45:23You can have the boat or the mystery box.
45:26What are you crazy?
45:27We'll take the boat.
45:28Not so fast, Lois.
45:29A boat's a boat, but the mystery box could be anything.
45:32It could even be a boat.
45:34You know how much we've won on one of those.
45:35And let's just-
45:36We'll take the box.
45:40So we've got, I'm going to give you
45:43the statistical profile of the Celtics through the playoffs,
45:46and you can take the statistical playoff profile of that player
45:50or the mystery box playoff performance in the finals.
45:54So this is really like an adjacent tatum question
45:56more than anything else, but a way for us
45:58to chat through some of the players' performances so far.
46:01So Jason Tatum through the playoffs, 26, 10.4 rebounds,
46:055.9 assists on 56.5% true shooting.
46:09This is the hardest one, I think,
46:11because he's been trending in the right direction.
46:13If I isolate that from my game three of the Cleveland series
46:16on, we're like definitely taking it.
46:18I think this is kind of like right on the edge.
46:20Forsberg, I'll throw it to you.
46:22Are you taking this?
46:23And this includes all of the defense and the rebounding
46:27as well.
46:28It's just everything we've gotten from this
46:29is just everything we've gotten from Tatum so far in the finals.
46:33Or so I have to either take what he's given us so far
46:35or I have to say I want the mystery box.
46:37Just whatever.
46:39Could be better, could be worse.
46:42Like you said, I like the trend of how he's played.
46:47Seems like he was more efficient towards the end
46:50of that indie series after all the consternation.
46:53It's hard because I've screamed back at everyone being like,
46:58he's not having a great playoffs.
46:59And it's like, what?
47:01What are we doing here?
47:03But that being said, I do think, especially based on,
47:08you know, he's had two years to think about
47:10how poor his 2022 finals was.
47:14You do know that he's brought some of his best efforts against Luka
47:19and that sort of stage showdown with another superstar.
47:24So unless he's just decided that defensively
47:29he's going to be the best version of Jason Tatum here,
47:32even better than what we've seen,
47:34I would say I would take the mystery box
47:36because I just think, what's the minutes on Tatum
47:40so far this postseason?
47:42See, I keep asking you questions.
47:43No, you're good.
47:45I can load another tab on my browser
47:47without the entire computer exploding.
47:48I would just look this stuff up myself.
47:51But this is why I have my phone here
47:52because this is where I look up all my useful information.
47:55Like I just looked up that Xavier Tillman actually got cooked
47:58by Luka all this year in three games.
48:01So I'm going to walk back to everything I just said.
48:04But I am taking the Tatum mystery box
48:06because I think it's going to be in 40-something minutes per game.
48:10You know, even if you per 36 minutes what you gave me,
48:14I think the efficiency is going up
48:16and I think he's going to find a way to be
48:18even more impactful than what we've seen.
48:20Spoonie?
48:22Tatum's right on the line for me.
48:24This one is, yeah, I think this is really, really tough.
48:27I think I'm leaning just keeping where he's at
48:30and it's because of the passing and the rebounding.
48:33I think his playmaking has been like incredibly great
48:37most of this playoffs.
48:39So I wouldn't want him to lose that
48:41even if it would be like mystery boxing some more efficiency.
48:44But I, man, like if you mystery box him
48:47into like 62 true shoe percentage,
48:50like all of a sudden he's averaging like 35.
48:53So that's a tough one.
48:54But I think I'm just, I'm a coward.
48:56I'm going to keep it as is.
48:59Yeah, therein lies the thrill of the mystery box.
49:02I'm pretty risk averse.
49:03So, and like Tatum has been fine.
49:06He's been arguably the best player, if not Jalen,
49:09on this team through a fairly dominant playoff run so far.
49:12That said, if you get a similar version of Tatum
49:14who's hitting his pull up at a high clip,
49:16this is going to be a short series.
49:18And so do you throw the dice?
49:19Do you risk the mystery box for that?
49:21I think we're getting enough from Tatum as it is.
49:24There's other players that I would want to roll the dice for.
49:26And I think we'll get to that soon, Jake.
49:28So for now I'm going to, I'm going to stay.
49:29I'm going to, I'm going to, what do they call it in poker?
49:31Fold, check, whatever it is.
49:32Check, check, check, check, check.
49:36I'll stay, I'll stay, yes.
49:37Yeah, I think, yeah, like if I was to predict it,
49:41Tatum is going to go above this in the finals,
49:44but I might just take it
49:45because I think this just gives us such a high floor with all.
49:49You got a bit too nervous.
49:50I know.
49:51In general, you guys need like some medication.
49:54I agree, that's just an evergreen statement.
49:59Need some medication, absolutely.
50:02Jalen, 25 points a game, 25, 6, and 2.6 assists
50:07on 61% true shooting for Usberg.
50:12Again, okay.
50:12Now, after I just, you know,
50:16browbeat you guys over not having,
50:18like, I think there's a, there's a world.
50:20So here's what I would say is that
50:22the only reason I would probably take it
50:23is because I don't think you're going to get the same scoring
50:25because I think he's going to expend more of his energy defensively.
50:28And that's going to naturally drive that number down.
50:31And, you know, although when I've said that,
50:33that he just goes out there and does both.
50:34So based on 2022 finals,
50:37I think this could be a big showcase for Jalen
50:41to once again, show just how good he is
50:43and remind people if they didn't see him
50:45hoisting that Larry O'Brien, I mean, Larry Bird trophy.
50:49I'm getting ahead of myself.
50:51So I think I would take it because
50:56you need to give me like a parlay.
50:57If I can take both, maintaining their efficiency,
51:02then I like the series is the wrap, right?
51:05Like probably need one of those guys to slump well below
51:09what they've given you for the maps
51:10to have a chance in this series,
51:12or at least for Luca or Kyrie to be way above.
51:15And so I think I'll take the coward way out this time.
51:20And give me the Jalen we've seen.
51:27I'm taking Jalen we've seen, coward's way out as well.
51:31He's been incredibly, incredibly efficient.
51:34I wish we could mystery box just the free throws
51:36cause then we'd be in business.
51:38But other than that, I think he's been great.
51:40And I think the odds of like getting CTE Jalen
51:45are too high out of the mystery box.
51:46So give me this version.
51:49Ben?
51:51Coward's way out in this one.
51:52Yeah, I'll take the JB that we've had all day, every day.
51:55This is fine.
51:55This is a good exercise.
51:56Cause it's like, oh, by the way,
51:57this has always been really good.
51:58Yeah, I'd actually do it.
51:59I think the Tatum is, that's a coward's way out.
52:01This is not a coward's way out.
52:02I think taking the mystery box here
52:04is recklessly irresponsible.
52:06Getting 25 points per game on 61% true shooting
52:09from Jalen would be like this series over.
52:11Like if he puts up 25 points a game on that type of efficiency,
52:14but I think it's very possible.
52:16Yeah, give me Jalen in this spot.
52:19Derek White.
52:20So this is a good reminder of how good he was earlier
52:23in the playoffs.
52:24So Derek White, 17.8 points, four rebounds, 4.6 assists
52:28on 62.5% true shooting.
52:31So we're just like, cause we're not kind of taking
52:34into account the swoon of some of the other stuff.
52:36It's just like, that's his overall 18 points a game,
52:3962.5% true shooting, dropping that guy into the finals.
52:43Ah, I guess I gotta take it, right?
52:44Like, is he knocking down clutch corner threes
52:47and must have moments?
52:48Like, it's so funny.
52:51Cause like more than anybody,
52:53it feels like he's been up and down
52:56and yet the numbers don't say that at all.
52:59And I think it comes back to,
53:01we just have irrational expectations
53:02for these guys sometimes based on like how good they've been.
53:06And you just kind of forget
53:07that when Tatum and Brown are going
53:09like they were last series,
53:10that there's just not as many points out there.
53:12And when Drew Holliday's playing to that level.
53:14So I'm trying to think, Derek had a great game one in 2022
53:21and then kind of fell off the face of the earth.
53:24So if you can give me those numbers, I take it.
53:26Because if he had been anywhere near himself
53:29in that series, the Celtics probably already have banner 18.
53:31So I will not be greedy in this moment.
53:35Yeah. Not going to be greedy either.
53:37Give me this version of Derek White,
53:39assuming we get it generally every game.
53:42Yeah. And he said it was like,
53:43his first series was so incredibly good.
53:45Yeah. It was like, it anchored
53:48like our expectations going forward.
53:50And like, he's not going to have 38
53:52in a game every series.
53:53That's probably not reasonable.
53:55Let's hope he does it in the final.
53:56Let's hope, man.
53:58Give me this version of D White.
54:00Give me the mystery box.
54:01Give me potentially pre all-star campaign,
54:05Derek White, when he was playing out of his fucking mind.
54:09Of all the parallel universe iterations of Derek White,
54:12I think all of them are almost perfect human beings.
54:14And so the likelihood of going to the mystery box
54:17and getting a better version of what we have now,
54:18and I'm basing this on obvious science, clearly,
54:22the better version of Derek White is more likely
54:24than not to come back via the mystery box.
54:26So let's get a little crazy with Derek White.
54:27Give me the mystery box.
54:28Look at Ben go, man.
54:30Troy called him out in the chat for being a coward.
54:32And so Ben's going for it here.
54:35Yeah, for me.
54:37And look, this is the point though.
54:39We don't need anything crazy from these guys.
54:41We just need them to keep doing what they're doing.
54:44And we should win this thing.
54:45True holiday, interesting one.
54:4612.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists,
54:5161.4% true shooting.
54:53Again, so he's kind of like the inverse of D White.
54:55And it's like, he struggled in the Miami series,
54:58but he's just been cooking from Cleveland
55:01kind of game three, I think, onwards.
55:05But that 61% true shooting is very tantalizing.
55:10Can I pay to get the last two weeks of Drew Holland?
55:15Is there an up price I can buy in to get just like that?
55:19Because like that version,
55:21I don't know if we're going to get that version,
55:23but I also don't think we're going to get
55:25the two weeks before that version of Drew,
55:28which was everyone in Milwaukee going,
55:30see, playoff Drew, playoff Drew.
55:34I'm trying to think like how good his defense
55:37has been on the total this post season
55:39and could it go up a level?
55:41Like, I just think it needs to just be a little,
55:43like when I watched that March 1st game,
55:45I was like, wow, Drew was all,
55:47like he was like almost giddy
55:49to be taken on that Luka challenge in the first half.
55:52If I could just, if the mystery box was,
55:55you're like, I can't tell you
55:57what the shooting is going to be,
55:58but the defense is going to be great.
56:00I keep making new rules for this.
56:01I love it.
56:02It's a very rigid game.
56:04You can't be doing this.
56:06Okay.
56:06So I'm buying the mystery box,
56:07but you're telling, you're allowed,
56:09you're unlocking one of the five,
56:10like attributes that will be determined.
56:12And, and like, you're like the defense bar is way up
56:16and I'm like, I'm taking the mystery box.
56:18Okay.
56:19I'll allow it.
56:19Yeah.
56:19And real quick, last eight games for Drew Holliday,
56:2315 and a half, six and five on over 50, 40, 90.
56:28So pretty solid in the last eight games.
56:31Give me the mystery box.
56:32I want the Indiana version of Drew Holliday
56:35and what we have for the totality
56:38of the playoffs is not that guy.
56:40So even though the true shooting's really nice,
56:42maybe that takes a hit,
56:44but I think his playmaking was better
56:46and his defense was better as the playoffs have gone on.
56:48And I want to make sure we lock that in.
56:51I'm looking forward to seeing the mystery box segment
56:53on NBC Sports Boston.
56:56Yeah.
56:56I think you throw the dice with Drew.
56:58I think you can afford to go either way
57:00and risk a potential down thick with Drew
57:03and still find success if you do head that way.
57:05So I'll take the mystery box as well.
57:06We've probably got time for one more, Jake.
57:08What do you think?
57:08Yeah.
57:08So Sam Houser mystery box.
57:10Well, yeah.
57:12Okay.
57:12Sam Houser, obviously we're taking mystery box.
57:14Yeah.
57:15Drew, I'm probably just, I'm, I'm checking unfold.
57:17I'm taking the 40% from three on the five attempts
57:20from on the playoffs, but the, then, okay.
57:22I'll give you guys who would, we, Al Horford,
57:2534.6% from three in the playoffs.
57:28Actually, maybe the most interesting one,
57:31Kristaps Porzingis in the three games that he did play
57:3412 points per game, seven rebounds, 1.9 assists,
57:3738.9% field goal, but 40% three point.
57:41Okay.
57:42That's a tricky one.
57:43Cause like, if you're telling me I'm getting eight,
57:44three point attempts from the big dog
57:46and they're going in at a 40% clip,
57:48then like that's, that's a tough one.
57:50I'll end on Kristaps.
57:52All right.
57:52Um, and the same minutes and you're getting the minutes.
57:57So yeah, 30 minutes.
57:59That's I, so I got to think you got to take it.
58:01If you could guarantee me 30, I'm, I'm,
58:02I'm taking it all day, every day.
58:04And even at only 12 points, I, that efficiency,
58:08those threes and those minutes, they make me feel pretty good
58:11because like, if you, just all I need,
58:13that's all I need is the guarantee of the minutes.
58:14I'm, I'm, I'm coward's way out.
58:18Yeah.
58:19Like his, the biggest thing he can do
58:20is space the floor against Dallas.
58:23That said, give me the mystery box.
58:2538% from the floor, man.
58:27Like, come on.
58:28The odds of that going up are so high.
58:30He's gonna, you will mystery box our way to like 36, 37%
58:34from three.
58:36And I want post-up KP back to like,
58:38that just gives us different dimension.
58:40But I think this is a tough one.
58:41Yeah.
58:42This one's really close.
58:43If he comes out of the box injured,
58:44I'm going to be really pissed.
58:46Absolutely.
58:47He's already kind of ensnared within a mystery box
58:50as we speak at the moment.
58:51We don't really know what the outcome is going to be,
58:53but yeah, I'm with you, Spoonie.
58:54I'll take the mystery box and just, just hope for the best.
58:56As in most of these cases, Chris Forsberg, this was great, man.
59:00Thank you so much for coming on.
59:01It's always a good time having you on the show.
59:02What have you got coming up in the next few days
59:04between now and when the finals start?
59:05I'm hoping to sleep.
59:09No, it's been a good little break.
59:10We got, if people like want eight hours of coverage a day,
59:15I think we got that coming in our pre and post and halftime.
59:19And we do have a final special, I believe, on Wednesday.
59:25The days all blend together, even while we wait.
59:27I'm just, I really wish I'd just gone into hibernation for nine days
59:30and then someone shook me on Thursday and said, it's time to go.
59:33Yeah.
59:33I wish I could help with that.
59:34Absolutely.
59:35All right.
59:35That's going to do it for this one.
59:36Thank you so much for joining us.
59:37We'll be back on Wednesday night, live at 8 PM East
59:40with Dan Greenberg, aka Stool Greeny of Bastl Sports
59:43for one last appetizer before the madness of the NBA finals tips
59:46the following day.
59:47Forsberg, Spoonie, Jake, love your work, guys.
59:49Until next time, go Celtics.
59:51I love the Celtics!