This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 07/08/2024. For the rest of this week it will stay changeable, however as the weekend approaches the heat and humidity will build for England and Wales but only for a couple of days. And then what?Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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00:00Hello, welcome to your latest 10-day trend. The heat and humidity will build for a time
00:05Sunday and into Monday for many areas of the UK. But for the time being, it's staying fairly
00:10unsettled across the UK. We've got a cut-off area of the jet stream driving this area of
00:15low pressure. That's bringing this more unsettled weather we've seen through Wednesday, pretty
00:19blustery day for many areas. Now, that low pressure stays with us through the rest of
00:23the week. But overnight on Wednesday night, a warm front approaches from the south and
00:28west. And this is going to introduce some much more humid air just for a time on Thursday.
00:33It's just a short-lived humid spell at first. More details on Sunday and Monday in a moment.
00:39But through Thursday, quite a lot of cloud arriving from the south and west. And that
00:43will be particularly thick across coastal areas and over the hills as well. So if you're
00:48heading out to the coast and the hills, it's going to feel pretty miserable, I would think,
00:52and some potentially quite heavy rain. But as I said, the humidity is rising. Temperatures
00:57will be around 20, 24 degrees in the south and east possibly, but there's not going to
01:01be too much in the way of sunshine. And the heavy rain will likely continue through the
01:06evening, particularly across north and eastern areas. However, as the night progresses through
01:11Thursday night, the front will clear through, and that will introduce fresher air once again.
01:15So we'll be back into similar air that we've had through Wednesday. Still a bit of a breeze
01:21across northwestern areas. It could be a pretty grey start across the south and east, but
01:26it should brighten up by the afternoon. And in the sunshine, despite fresher air, it's
01:31still pretty warm temperatures in the mid-20s, low-20s quite widely across England and Wales.
01:36Where we're closer to that area of low pressure, we've got a bit of a stronger breeze from
01:39the west. Temperatures in the high teens and still quite showery across northern areas
01:45through Friday. That showery theme will likely continue Friday evening across the far north
01:50of Scotland. Elsewhere, probably a fairly fine end to the working week, with clear skies
01:55developing across the UK. It is going to cloud over as we head into the weekend once
02:01again, though. We've got the next weather front approaching from the southwest. Another
02:05warm front, so it's going to introduce more humid air once again. This isn't the most
02:09humid or the hottest air we'll see over the weekend. That's to come on Sunday. But it
02:14does mean that we'll have a pretty cloudy start quite widely across northern and western
02:18areas. That will sink into the south and east, but it will tend to fizzle away as it does
02:23so through Saturday. So I think still quite a lot of dry weather as it can be expected
02:27on Saturday. And in the sunshine, again, not feeling too bad. Temperatures in the low 20s,
02:33high teens, possibly the mid 20s where we're holding on to that more humid air for a little
02:38longer across the southeast. Now, as I've alluded to, it will turn even warmer and more
02:44humid as we head into Sunday, the latter part of the weekend. You can see the first signs
02:50of that across the southwest on Saturday evening. So that humidity will probably start
02:54to rise through the latter part of Saturday from the south and west. So it is a warm front
02:59out to the south and west of the UK. And here is the area of low pressure associated with
03:06it. Now, the development of this is a little more complicated. And to understand that,
03:11we need to look a little further afield at Hurricane Debbie, which was previously Hurricane
03:16Debbie, now Tropical Storm Debbie. It's brought some very heavy rain to eastern areas of the
03:22US. Up to 800 millimetres can be expected through the rest of this week for some areas
03:28of the US. So by the time we get to Saturday, it's sat up across the far northeast of the
03:33US into parts of eastern Canada by the time we get to Saturday. And the shape and development
03:38of this area of low pressure, this tropical storm really influences the shape of the jet
03:44stream. Here's the jet stream. You can see that Debbie starts to build the shape of
03:49the jet stream, amplifying it up to the north. It then dives down to the south of the UK
03:53before diving back up to the north just before the UK by Saturday. And this amplified pattern
04:00is what's going to drive this tropical air, this very humid air across the UK Sunday and
04:06into Monday. Let's have a look at how that plays out. So low pressure will arrive from
04:11the south and west. That's going to be bringing up this area of tropical air will likely start
04:16to sit up to the north and west of the UK. There's a bit of uncertainty in the development
04:21on this low pressure, but it's likely it will then clear out to the south and east of the
04:27UK through Monday evening and into Tuesday. So it's going to be a fairly short-lived hot
04:32spell. Temperatures will likely peak on Monday. So we get this tropical air does develop quite
04:37widely, at least for a time Sunday and into Monday. Now, this is the Met Office model.
04:42It shows low pressure, fairly developed area of low pressure up to the north and west by
04:47Monday evening. That would drive the cooler air across the UK, the fresher air more quickly
04:53Monday and into Tuesday. But other models show a less developed area of low pressure,
04:59which would mean that milder, more warmer, humid air would hang around for longer. However,
05:05either way, the heat and humidity is expected to build for a time across the UK Sunday and
05:12Monday. It's likely to be a fairly short-lived hot spell, but we could see temperatures climb
05:17into the low 30s for parts of the southeast. However, for a wide area of parts of England
05:23and Wales, temperatures are expected to exceed 25 degrees, coming close to the high 20s for
05:30a large area of England and Wales. And in the southeast, temperatures exceeding 30 degrees.
05:35So temperatures will be high by day, but it's also by night, particularly Sunday night,
05:40where it will be very warm and humid. Now, that heat will ease as we head into Tuesday. And once
05:47we see that heat ease, we'll see a spell of wet weather push across the country. We could also
05:52see some thunderstorms develop quite widely across the country on Sunday, Monday and into Tuesday.
05:58This is the precipitation totals for 48 hours between Sunday and Monday. So,
06:06it's on the boundary between the warmer and the cooler air where we're expecting the heaviest
06:11rain to be. Now, we could see some waves develop across the fronts that would allow some higher
06:16totals to develop. So, I've got the Met Office model on the left here and the European model
06:21ECMWF on the right. Now, ECMWF is currently the most preferred model, and that develops a bit of
06:28a wave across parts of Scotland. So, you can see the brighter colours across parts of Western
06:33Scotland show higher rainfall totals on that boundary between the cooler and the hot air on
06:38Saturday, on Sunday and into Tuesday. In the Met Office model, where there's less of a significant
06:45heavy rainfall event across northwestern areas, we do see some high rainfall totals across parts
06:50of England. That's because that boundary will likely push through more quickly in the Met
06:54Office model. But as I said, it's the European model which is currently preferred. There's also
06:59some other areas of heavier rain across parts of England and Wales, and these would be due to
07:04thunderstorms breaking out through Sunday and Monday and possibly into Tuesday. So,
07:10there's potential for some heavy rain as well as the heat and humidity through Sunday and into
07:16Monday. But as I said, it's going to be a short-lived hot spell and wet weather will likely
07:20push eastwards across the country, Monday and into Tuesday. And behind it, we'll be back into a
07:26more unsettled mobile regime. So, spells of wet weather, low pressure dominating our weather
07:32through much of the middle part to the end of next week. This is one of the most likely regimes from
07:39around Tuesday. We've got low pressure centred up to the north and west, and that would push
07:44wet weather predominantly into northwestern areas, probably a bit drier across the south and east.
07:49But I think that weather is likely to spread into southeastern areas at times through the week.
07:55And we've also got low pressure in this regime. This is the most likely regime by Wednesday,
07:59the following day. Low pressure still centred up to the north, high pressure to the south,
08:04which means that we could see some ridging, some drier weather becoming a bit more widespread
08:10across the UK. So, I think the main theme, once this heat and humidity clears out the way,
08:16is for a pretty mixed set up through next week, some spells of drier and warmer weather,
08:21but also spells of wet weather that could be fairly widespread across the country.
08:26And finally, the temperatures. What does that mean for our temperatures? Well,
08:29this is the meteorogram, as we like to call it. This is for Reading, somewhere in the southeast.
08:35So, you can see quite clearly this peak in temperatures, the rise in temperatures Sunday
08:39and Monday that we're expecting across England and Wales, but particularly across the southeast.
08:44But then a significant drop into the middle part of next week, and then temperatures
08:49remain largely around average, if not a little above average. And I think if we saw any of those
08:55drier, more settled spells, we could see some warmer days, but also potentially some wetter
09:01days as well. So, a few changes on the way to our weather, lots of interesting weather to get our
09:06teeth into. So, if you'd like any more information on that, why not check out our deep dive on
09:11YouTube, and I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.