Nantikan Rilis RAPBN 2025, IHSG Berpeluang Rebound Jelang Akhir Pekan?
IHSG koreksi 0,36% terdampak profit taking ke posisi 7.409,5 pasca tembus level New ATH intraday di 7.460.387 di Kamis (15/8/2024). Sektor infrastruktur -0,73%. Rupiah ditutup di Rp15.690/USDmerosot 0,1%. Semua mata pelaku pasar tertuju ke rilis RAPBN 2025 yang akan menjadi arah bagi pembangunan Indonesia ke depan.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00We will look at the interesting economic agendas for us to discuss from the United States.
00:09There is the FOMC Harker data.
00:11Then there is the Fed Balance Sheet.
00:14There is also data on the position of reserves in the Federal Reserve Bank.
00:18And there is also data on Singapore's trade in July.
00:23Then from the UK, there is data on the retail sales of Eroneer in July.
00:27And from Europe, there is trade in July.
00:30Then in Australia, there is data on the RBA Governor, Bollock.
00:34Then there is data on the deposit of US$1 from Thailand.
00:40The next is the METAN Agenda.
00:42Viewers can watch it on the television screen.
00:45Mark, Ex-Dividend Tonight, Interim.
00:48Then Jaya, Cum Dividend Tonight.
00:51And NICL, Cum Dividend Tonight.
00:55And the next is the opening of the Asian Stock Exchanges this morning.
00:59Viewers can watch it on the television screen for the Asian Stock Exchanges.
01:03Compaq was opened and strengthened, in my opinion, with a 2.84% increase.
01:09It strengthened for Nikkei at level 37,768.
01:13STI Singapore strengthened 1.11% at level 3,352.
01:18Then KOSPI Korea strengthened 1.73% at level 2,690.
01:25Meanwhile, Hang Seng also strengthened 1.03% at level 17,286.
01:40And our conversation today has been connected via video conference.
01:43There is Mr. Gembong Suwito, Director of Education and Investment, Samology.
01:47How are you? Good morning, Mr. Gembong.
01:50Good morning. Good morning, Mr. Suwito. Good morning, IDX Channel Indonesia.
01:54Thank you for joining us, Mr. Gembong, at IDX Channel, at MarketBus.
01:59This time, while waiting for the annual agenda at MPR-DPR.
02:04And also what President Joko Widodo said.
02:08Related to the work of the institution and also the 2025 PBN era.
02:13Which may also be used as a base or maybe a preference.
02:19Investment decision-making in today's business.
02:22Before we discuss that, let's go to the IHSG movement review.
02:26Mr. Gembong, who touched the highest intraday level in history, at level 7,460.
02:33What is your analysis like, Mr. Gembong?
02:35Okay, thank you.
02:36If we talk about historical price movements, like the IHSG itself.
02:41Usually, if it has touched the all-time high, then the tendency or dominance will correct.
02:48That usually happens.
02:50For example, in this year, the IHSG at the beginning of the year at 6,690.
02:55Let's say at 6,700.
02:58Then the highest at 14 March, if I'm not mistaken, or mid-March 2024.
03:03It touched at 7,450.
03:06Because the market movement is the bank sector and the PPP group.
03:10After that, mid-March, then the corrective.
03:14This is also the same.
03:16Yesterday, it was at the all-time high, 7,460.
03:22After that, usually the corrective will dominate.
03:25But the corrective will not be as fast as yesterday.
03:30It means that the weakness that happened on Thursday was also affected by profit-taking, right?
03:35Correct.
03:36Okay.
03:37Let's talk about what is expected by the market players.
03:39What is said by President Jokowi-Dodo later,
03:42related to the Bank of Indonesia and also the RUAPBN 2025.
03:48The macro assumption, then also the budgetary posts that are prioritized.
03:52How long will this be a concern for today's market players, Mr. Gembong?
03:57Okay, this is interesting because the RUAPBN that was delivered to President Jokowi on 16 August today
04:04is a reflection of the RUAPBN transition.
04:08The transition from President Jokowi's government to the new government plan.
04:15Of course, there are several programs that have started to be accommodated.
04:20Especially from the concept of continued development.
04:24Especially the focus on IKN.
04:26It has been announced that it will be continued.
04:29That's why the related sectors, especially from the construction side, have increased significantly.
04:34Then the second from CC, of course, if yesterday there was free lunch,
04:39with various variations of names,
04:41the food and other things have started to be accommodated.
04:43So this is interesting from the point of view of the RUAPBN 2025 assumption that was delivered.
04:49We can explain the assumption of the macro that was delivered.
04:53Okay, in the RUAPBN 2025, the income is around Rp2,983 trillion.
05:00Assuming it's Rp3,000 trillion.
05:02While the government spending is around Rp3,500 trillion.
05:07Meaning deficit.
05:08The deficit that is assumed, the macro is around Rp2,2 or Rp2,3 trillion from GDP.
05:16That's the assumption.
05:18So it still depends on the deficit RUAPBN.
05:21What is the deficit covered with?
05:23With capital.
05:24The interesting assumption from the macroeconomic side,
05:27because oil is around Rp7,580 trillion.
05:31Then from the inflation side,
05:33inflation is around Rp1,500 trillion to Rp3,500 trillion.
05:37And of course, the last from the economic growth is around Rp5,100 trillion to Rp5,500 trillion.
05:42It means this is still a moderate trend,
05:44not too different from the RUAPBN in previous years.
05:49We will see how to accommodate from the Jokowi government side,
05:54the last one is related to the transition.
05:56So that's what the market players are waiting for.
06:00If, for example, from the budget prospect side,
06:03the accommodation is greater,
06:05then it will be a positive sentiment for today.
06:07But in terms of the market,
06:09the ISK will play a role to correct this.
06:12Okay.
06:13Talking about the construction sector itself,
06:15the allocation of budget or RUAPBN for the development in the central business district
06:19has not been done or absorbed 100%.
06:22It means there is a possibility for a greater absorption
06:26to the government's side.
06:28It means the construction sector can then take advantage of this momentum.
06:34That's why, as you said earlier,
06:36the movement is quite positive for the construction sector.
06:39Okay.
06:40Talking about the opening of the main Asian businesses this morning,
06:43which is compact in Bukamuat, Wall Street, and so on.
06:45It means, possibly, it will move sideways today
06:49because the sentiment is quite balanced.
06:53Some of them then see the possibility of being corrected
06:57because of profit-taking, because yesterday it was all-time high.
07:00But then it is also mixed with the movement of global businesses
07:04as well as Asia that is positive this morning.
07:07What do you think, Mr. Gembong?
07:09That's right.
07:10So, for today, it's more of a mixed tendency.
07:13Even if there is an increase or decrease,
07:16the relative movement will be thin.
07:19Not up to 0.5%.
07:21Because, one, we will be very influenced from the global side.
07:26On the global side,
07:28at the beginning of August yesterday,
07:30there was a concern regarding the US data
07:34that there is a potential for a recession,
07:36especially in the labor sector.
07:38That's what caused, at the beginning of August,
07:43the global stock market to experience a significant decline.
07:47Wall Street, especially from Asia and so on.
07:49But now, with the data from the US,
07:53related to the data,
07:56the concern about what is called a recession is getting worse.
08:01Then, in addition to the potential for a decline in the flow rate,
08:06the tendency is full.
08:08Most likely, the market hopes that in September,
08:11there are clear signs.
08:14Yesterday, the US inflation data was reported at around 3%.
08:19And this is the lowest in almost the last two years.
08:24So, the target from the Fed has started to enter,
08:27which is inflation plus minus 2%.
08:30So, this is what reveals that the potential for a decline in the flow rate is happening.
08:35Therefore, US and regional stocks
08:40are likely to experience a rebound
08:43when there is a concern about the recession at the beginning of August yesterday.
08:49Okay.
08:50It means, if we look at it later,
08:52and also reflect on the support at 7,400,
08:54will it still happen today?
08:57Or is there a chance for a new all-time high, in your opinion, Mr. Gembong?
09:02Okay.
09:03Related to today,
09:05the IASG is quite mixed.
09:08The biggest foundation of the IASG,
09:11in the old blue chip,
09:13which is the banking sector,
09:15and for example, the market movement in telecoms to Astra.
09:20But this year, it's shifting.
09:23There are several conglomerate groups,
09:26especially in the BP group,
09:27which are the market movers.
09:29For example, Brand, TPIA, Chuan, and others.
09:33In fact, the market size is quite large.
09:37So, it's balanced.
09:38If from the perspective of the big bank,
09:40for today, especially from the perspective of BCA,
09:43then Mandiri, BNI, or BRI,
09:47even if there is a slight increase,
09:49it tends to be corrective.
09:51Now, on the other hand,
09:53the second supporter, this conglomerate group,
09:55in the BP group,
09:56is there a decrease or an increase?
09:58If there is an increase,
10:00then this will be a supporter of the IASG,
10:02which can reach the all-time high,
10:04which is above 7,460.
10:06However, if for example, the big bank is corrective,
10:10then the BP group is also corrective,
10:12then the strongest support today, 7,400,
10:16approximately like that.
10:18Okay, the next session is of course based on
10:20your analysis from Pak Gembong.
10:22Of course, there are some recommendations
10:24this morning from you.
10:26We will discuss the next session,
10:28and we will be right back.
10:30Thank you for still being with us
10:32at MarketBus, and I'm still talking
10:34with Pak Gembong Swito,
10:35Director of Education and Investment,
10:37Samology, before we continue the discussion
10:39related to Samsung's choice this morning.
10:41From Pak Gembong, we will discuss a little
10:43about some properties of Pak Gembong,
10:45which then we see,
10:47it seems to be led by Samsung BUMN.
10:50Your analysis is related to some properties,
10:52and maybe the recommendation for Samsung
10:54based on properties, what is it like, Pak Gembong?
10:57Okay, in terms of properties,
10:59there are two sectors, construction
11:01and real estate properties.
11:03Especially in terms of construction,
11:05there are indeed two sentiments.
11:07First, from the positive sentiment
11:09from PNN, capital planting
11:11from the country side to the BUMN,
11:14there is already a certainty,
11:16it has been obtained,
11:17finally it is the one that makes
11:19a positive catalyst.
11:20First, from the construction group side,
11:24so with the certainty of capital planting,
11:26because their problem is from the side
11:28of debt and equity,
11:30especially from the side of debt,
11:31so it is necessary,
11:32what is called the PNM planting,
11:34that is the first one.
11:35That's why the WIKA group,
11:37PTP, PADI, especially from the WIKA side,
11:40from Rp 100 to Rp 260 or Rp 300.
11:46The second, from the side,
11:47yesterday when Prabowo went to KN,
11:50he said that KN will continue,
11:52meaning sustainability or continuity
11:56from the KN side will happen,
11:58the construction sector will also benefit.
12:00That's the positive catalyst
12:02from the construction sector.
12:03But it is indeed careful,
12:04because the business model
12:05on the construction side is still vulnerable,
12:07especially from the side of debt.
12:09The second, on the emittance side,
12:12the real estate sector,
12:14there are players, for example,
12:16from the side of PAKUON,
12:19then SMRA, BSD, ECTRA.
12:22Now, this real estate sector
12:24does have a positive sentiment.
12:26If you remember,
12:27one month ago when I was here,
12:29we said that one of the sectors
12:31that has become a bullish swing trade
12:33is the real estate sector.
12:35Why?
12:36Because it is indeed a trend at that time.
12:39Signs of a downward trend
12:41will occur in the second semester.
12:43That's what makes it a positive catalyst
12:45from the real estate sector.
12:47In addition, there are improvements
12:49from the Fundamental Report on Finance,
12:52there are improvements from the sales side
12:54to the bottom line,
12:55from the side of the EPS,
12:58the earning per share,
12:59it is generally experiencing an increase.
13:01For example, PAKUON, SMRA, BSD, ECTRA,
13:03it is generally experiencing an increase.
13:05This is a positive sentiment.
13:07Something like that.
13:08Okay.
13:09Specific to WIKA itself,
13:11do you think it is interesting, Mr. Gembong?
13:14In terms of the price,
13:15and also the potential upside?
13:18At the moment,
13:19it is prone to correction.
13:21Why?
13:22If you look at the historical,
13:24especially from the WIKA side,
13:26at the moment,
13:27the shape of the candle
13:29is already under pressure
13:30related to sales.
13:31And if you look at the historical,
13:33it is almost 2.5 to 3 times more.
13:36It means it is prone to profit taking.
13:38So, usually,
13:39if we want to invest now,
13:41we don't recommend it.
13:43WIKA, BTP, PAD,
13:45we don't invest at the moment.
13:47Because,
13:48it is better to wait for the corrective
13:54at the level,
13:56especially at MA100 or MA200.
13:59Because today,
14:01the price has been raised quite high.
14:03The potential to rise in the future
14:05will be reduced.
14:07So, for the conversion,
14:08especially,
14:09we don't invest at the moment.
14:11It is profit taking.
14:12Okay.
14:13You avoid it first,
14:15but let it go first.
14:17Right, Mr. Gembong?
14:18Okay.
14:19We go to the infrastructure sector
14:20which is the driver of the YSG movement.
14:22One of them is Indosat,
14:23and also the brand,
14:24then JSM Air.
14:26What is your analysis of Samsung like, Mr. Gembong?
14:30Okay.
14:31If we talk about the infrastructure sector,
14:33one of them is Indosat itself.
14:35Indosat's price movement is above IDR 11,200,
14:40but it will be difficult to reach IDR 12,000.
14:43Because,
14:44if we talk about liquidity, retail,
14:47the stock above IDR 10,000 is expensive.
14:49Therefore,
14:50the company plans,
14:52if it is in a stock split,
14:53with 1 to 4,
14:56to reduce the price,
14:59to create liquidity,
15:00retail also starts to enter.
15:02That's what we see.
15:03Because so far,
15:04Indosat is above IDR 11,000,
15:06it's difficult.
15:07Therefore, the stock split is needed
15:09for later,
15:10for example,
15:11at IDR 2,000, IDR 2,500,
15:12that's liquidity from retail,
15:13it will be interesting again.
15:15On the Indosat side.
15:16So,
15:17wait after the stock split.
15:20That's it.
15:21Then,
15:22on the JSM Air side,
15:24JSM,
15:25indeed,
15:26the positive catalyst is related to,
15:28for example,
15:29yesterday,
15:30in the last 3-4 months,
15:32it has significantly increased,
15:34the price movement,
15:36because there are many positive catalysts,
15:37especially from the transportation side,
15:40when using toll roads,
15:42when on holidays,
15:43long holidays,
15:44it's quite significant.
15:45The revenue has increased significantly.
15:47Now, this has started,
15:48the signs are consolidated
15:49and tend to be more active.
15:50Something like that.
15:51This will wait
15:52until the report,
15:54Q2 of 2024,
15:56from JSM.
15:57But,
15:58the price movement will be in the low range,
16:00at IDR 5,200, IDR 5,300,
16:02until below IDR 5,000.
16:04Under IDR 5,000, that's interesting.
16:06But now, not yet.
16:07Wait and see.
16:08Okay.
16:09Thank you for the information you have provided,
16:11Mr. Gembong.
16:12We will continue our discussion,
16:14because we have to be brief,
16:15and we will be back soon.
16:18Thank you for staying with us.
16:20Before I continue our discussion,
16:22with Mr. Gembong Swito,
16:23Director of Education and Investment,
16:24Sahamology,
16:25we will take a look at the latest data,
16:27from the movement of IHSG,
16:28until around 9.7,
16:30when the western part of Indonesia,
16:32so far, there is still a strong movement,
16:340.41% at the level of IDR 7,440,227.
16:38Of course, it's still fluctuating.
16:40It was opened at the level of IDR 7,409,634.
16:44Touching the highest level at IDR 7,457,081,
16:48and the lowest level at IDR 7,437,057.
16:52And the shares that are included in the TAP Gainers list,
16:55among them are,
16:57TAP WIKA, INKO, BUMI, BP, DOH, PTPP, SMRA, BOGA, IOTF.
17:02Then, TAP Losers,
17:04there is TSP, CKPIG, SML, BIKENICE, MEJA, MARK, and also TOSK.
17:13Okay.
17:14We will continue our discussion with Mr. Gembong Swito.
17:17Mr. Gembong Swito,
17:18we will discuss the options this morning from you.
17:22Among them is BBTN,
17:25with Target Buy at the level or in the range of IDR 1,250 to IDR 1,300,
17:30with Target Price at IDR 1,350.
17:35Then, APOWON with Target Buy at IDR 430 to IDR 440,
17:41Target Price at IDR 500.
17:43Then, Stop Loss at IDR 420.
17:46Then, there is JPFA,
17:48with Target Buy at IDR 1,545 to IDR 1,550,
17:53Target Price at IDR 1,750,
17:55with Stop Loss at IDR 1,510,
17:59then BRPT, Target Buy at IDR 1,060,
18:01and between IDR 1,060 to IDR 1,080,
18:06with Target Price at IDR 1,280.
18:09Let's go to BBTN first.
18:11Mr. Gembong, what is the analysis like?
18:14Okay, from the BBTN side,
18:16we have said that the big story from the global side
18:20will be the trend of flowering.
18:23And this is approximately in September
18:25or at least at least from the end of the year.
18:28So, sectors that are related to positive catalysts
18:32from flowering,
18:34we will say that from the banking side,
18:36it is related to the purchasing of capital and assets,
18:39of course, from the BBTN side.
18:40Therefore, we will recommend BBTN.
18:43We have recommended it since yesterday
18:46in the range of IDR 1,200.
18:48So far, it is still on track.
18:50The strategy we use is swing trade.
18:52It means that we prefer stocks
18:55that move in a medium-term or long-term position
19:00according to the trend or trend
19:02in a fundamental or statistical way.
19:04BBTN's target is at IDR 12,000,
19:06IDR 1,200, IDR 90 or IDR 1,300.
19:09The target is still very realistic,
19:11at IDR 1,300, IDR 50 or IDR 1,400.
19:15That's based on the price action.
19:17If fundamentally, the valuation of BBTN should be at IDR 1,500.
19:20Because it's true that fundamentally, it's very cheap.
19:25That's the first thing from the BBTN side.
19:27But if the price moves in the opposite direction,
19:30the risk management we do, the stop loss is at IDR 1,270.
19:34I think that's the result for BBTN.
19:36BBTN's last level is at IDR 1,305.
19:39But if you look at the valuation of the price,
19:42it's still cheap.
19:44It can go straight to BBTN, right?
19:46Correct.
19:47The target price can go up to IDR 1,400.
19:51Okay.
19:52For the next stock that you are recommending is P1.
19:56What is it like, sir?
19:58Okay, from the P1 side.
19:59Actually, there are two real estate sectors
20:02that are our highlights.
20:04P1 and SMRA.
20:06But if we look at it,
20:08SMRA is more fluctuative.
20:11In the sense that if you want to gain faster,
20:14it's in SMRA.
20:15But if you want a relatively more stable movement,
20:19like us.
20:20Because we talk about our characters,
20:23we prefer a slow stock movement.
20:26But the positive trend is stronger.
20:29The volatility is lower.
20:31The P1 target is at IDR 4,300 to IDR 4,400.
20:36Yesterday, we were appreciated.
20:38We entered under IDR 4,000.
20:40Now, the buy is at IDR 4,300 to IDR 4,400.
20:46Because in terms of trend, it's still uptrend.
20:48In terms of trend, for fundamentals,
20:50there will be an increase.
20:52The TP is at IDR 5,000.
20:55The fundamental value is at IDR 5,500.
20:58But realistically, the TP is at IDR 5,000.
21:01But if the price movement changes,
21:04the risk mitigation that we do,
21:06the stop loss is at IDR 4,200 for P1.
21:10For JPFA and BRPT, sir.
21:12Just tell us the analysis.
21:13Okay.
21:15CPF target buy is at IDR 1,550 to IDR 1,545.
21:20The price target is at IDR 1,750.
21:23And the stop loss is at IDR 1,510.
21:25The second is at BRPT.
21:27BRPT is ranging.
21:29The buy is at IDR 1,060 to IDR 1,080.
21:33The price target is at IDR 1,280 or IDR 1,300.
21:37And the stop loss is at IDR 1,040.
21:41That's from the BRPT side.
21:42Okay.
21:43BRPT.
21:44That's it.
21:45That means BTN, Pobon, JPFA, and also BRPT.
21:47Okay.
21:48A little bit about the movement from ISG.
21:50Mr. Gembong, so far, it's still moving.
21:52What is your analysis like?
21:54That's right.
21:55Usually, for example,
21:57Mr. Jokowi wants RABBN, Pidato.
22:01Of course, there is market optimism here.
22:04When he buys Pidato,
22:07the direction of RABBN 2025 will be very clear.
22:12The first session will usually be positive.
22:16But the positive will not be much.
22:19Because the market movement from the big bank side
22:22is limited.
22:24As long as the PPB is not corrective,
22:27ISG will still be positive for today.
22:30But if the PPB is corrective,
22:32the corrective will not be much.
22:35Because in the range of support,
22:38IDR 7,400 is still strong enough.
22:40Okay.
22:41Today, the movement is positive for PPB.
22:43Okay, Mr. Gembong.
22:44Thank you for the information you have provided
22:46and also the analysis you have provided.
22:47Hopefully, this will be a reference for the market players
22:49in investing today.
22:50Good luck to you.
22:51As always, Mr. Gembong, see you.