This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 13/11/2024.
Winds from the north will bring colder weather for the start of next week but will anyone see snow?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
Winds from the north will bring colder weather for the start of next week but will anyone see snow?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. The weather is expected to turn
00:04colder into next week, but will there be any snow and if so, where? I'm going to try and
00:09answer those questions in a moment. However, if you've experienced some frosty mornings
00:14this week, you might think that the weather has already turned colder. That's simply the
00:18result of a clearer area of higher pressure now being in charge of the weather compared
00:22with last week's gloomy anti-cyclone. And as a result, under those clear skies by night,
00:28we have seen temperatures fall away, some frost and fog patches and in some places
00:33we'll see more frost and fog over the coming nights. But for many actually, increasingly
00:38cloudy skies arrive over the top of this area of higher pressure from the Atlantic. That's
00:44especially for North West Scotland, where it will be a drizzly, mild but damp start
00:48to Thursday and Northern Ireland likewise seeing some thick cloud. Further south and
00:54east, the cloud will be broken. There'll be some bright spells coming through. It's not
00:58a return to the anti-cyclonic gloom that we experienced last week, but it is a cloudier
01:03picture compared with the last few days. 12 or 13 in the south after a chilly start and
01:08mild once again in the north west with all that cloud coming in. The drizzly rain continues
01:14on Thursday night in Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Some cloud breaks for eastern
01:19Scotland and more especially southern parts of the country. So again, some frost and fog
01:24forming in the south, a chilly start here, but away from the fog, actually a bright enough
01:30start. And skipping forward to Friday afternoon, little change. The fog tends to lift in the
01:36south. There'll be variable cloud coming through, mostly dry here, but there will be increasingly
01:41some damp weather into North Wales, the North Midlands, North West England and especially
01:46Northern Ireland and Western Scotland with an increasing breeze coming through. Now,
01:52the rain in the far north west is being caused by a weather front which will start to sink
01:57south during Friday evening. A narrow but potentially intense feature with some heavy
02:02rain and gusty winds for a short time as it sinks south. And by Saturday morning, it's
02:08across Northern England, pushing into North Wales. To the south of that, it's a similar
02:12start to Saturday compared with Friday. Some frost and fog, but also some bright weather
02:17first thing and a lot of fine weather in the south continuing into Saturday. But that
02:22front's becoming slow moving as it runs into higher pressure. It marks the boundary between
02:29mild air to the south and colder air coming in from the north. And when you get these
02:33temperature contrasts, you can get areas of low pressure forming. And that looks likely
02:39for Sunday, an area of low pressure forming close to that weather front along with the
02:43temperature contrast. But different computer model simulations have different ideas about
02:48how much that low will form and how much rain we'll get as a result of it. What looks likely
02:54though is that Saturday will be a largely fine day for southern parts of the UK as that
03:00front in Northern England and North Wales becomes slow moving. So, some brightness in
03:04the south, some brightness coming through for northern areas, especially Northern England
03:09later and Scotland and Northern Ireland. But also increasingly a cold wind bringing
03:14frequent showers to Scotland and Northern Ireland, especially near north-western coasts.
03:19It'll feel cold in that wind and it'll be cold enough for some sleet and snow across
03:24higher parts of Scotland. Initially, rain at lower levels through Saturday daytime.
03:30By the end of Saturday, the front is across central parts and it's going to be petering
03:35out so the rain easing for a time. But it's along that front, like I say, along that temperature
03:41boundary where we could see some more widespread rain develop into Sunday. I wouldn't take
03:47this too literally. There are these differences coming through in the location and the depth
03:51of the low on Sunday. But either way, it looks like spells of rain will move through Northern
03:56Ireland, southern Scotland into England and Wales, mixing potentially with the cold air
04:00to give some snow over the Pennines, for example. Mostly rain elsewhere across England and Wales.
04:05Scotland, though, keeps those northerly winds in the north and increasingly cold, so a marked
04:12wind chill and the snow potentially coming down to lower levels. But again, mostly settling
04:17over hills above about 300 metres on Sunday. Increasingly windy in the north-west as well,
04:24so the risk of gales. That's going to make it feel especially cold. And either way, whatever
04:29happens with this low through Sunday, it does tend to pull away for the start of next week
04:33with the Arctic winds then becoming widespread across the UK, bringing the cold air into
04:39the far south. And by Monday, this is the most likely set-up for the UK. Cold northerly
04:48wind, which, passing over relatively warm seas at this time of year, would pick up moisture,
04:53pick up instability where the air is rising, and lead to frequent showers, especially for
04:59northern and north-western coasts because of the wind direction. And those showers could
05:05come as far south as the south-west of England, parts of Wales, and there'll be a mixture
05:09of rain, sleet and snow. The further north you are and the higher up you are, the more
05:14likely you'll see sleet and snow as opposed to rain. Any settling snow, most likely over
05:18the tops of the hills for England and Wales, and parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland
05:23seeing mostly snow over the hills. But I think northern Scotland could see snow settling
05:28to lower levels by this stage, such as the coldness of the air. Now this is one computer
05:36model simulation for the atmosphere for Monday. It's the most likely outcome for Monday, but
05:42it's only one simulation. And over the next few days, you might see some exciting maps
05:47get posted on social media or in the press that show various parts of the UK plastered
05:53by snow next week. But it's important to remember when looking at those maps that they are just
06:00one computer model simulation of the atmosphere. And professional meteorologists don't just
06:06take one computer model simulation of the atmosphere, even if it's the snowiest or the
06:10most exciting, and say that's what's going to happen. We run the computer models dozens
06:15of times and end up with dozens of simulations of the atmosphere. And the reason we do that
06:20is because of chaos theory, the idea that subtle changes at the start of a forecast
06:23can escalate into much bigger differences by days five, six and seven. And so all these
06:29different simulations will give us an overview of where computer models are agreeing and
06:35where they're not agreeing. And so we can talk about the most likely scenarios and the
06:40less likely but still plausible scenarios for a week's time. And that's what I'm going
06:45to do now. So the dozens of simulations from the Met Office, the European model and the
06:51American model can be summed up by these charts, which come out as the most likely weather
06:57patterns for next week. And there are three of these to look at. The first one has very
07:01similar conditions to the last graphic with northerly winds, showers for many, rain, sleet
07:06and snow, especially coastal parts, but some sunshine away from the showers, especially
07:11inland. And these minus twos indicate two degrees below average, so cold. This is another
07:17plausible scenario for next week. Similar sort of thing, winds coming from the north,
07:22below average temperatures, showers, some sunshine away from the showers, but low pressure
07:26a little closer to the UK. So perhaps bringing some more prolonged wintry precipitation to
07:31some areas. And the third one I want to show, which is also coming out as a plausible scenario
07:36for next week, is for an area of low pressure, more widely dominant across the UK, bringing
07:41unsettled weather, bands of rain, sleet and snow, depending on where you are with below
07:46average temperatures. So we look at these scenarios and we look at where they're agreeing
07:52and where they're disagreeing. Where they're agreeing is on northerly winds. This chart
07:56sums it up well. Each of these boxes indicates the possibility or the probability of northerlies
08:01or southerlies out to 27th of November. The most recent set of model runs is on the top
08:08row and the reds indicate a high chance of southerly winds and the blues indicate a high
08:13chance of northerly winds. And that's indeed what we've got from Sunday. Throughout much
08:17of next week, a high chance of northerly winds across the UK, although the blues become paler
08:22later on before fading away into the following weekend. Northerly winds would indicate below
08:28average temperatures and in fact that is what we're seeing from these graphics showing
08:32the temperature trend. For northern parts of the UK, initially these red boxes which
08:36show the daytime temperature, or the range of daytime temperatures, are above the red
08:41line here, which is the average for the time of year. Then on Sunday they drop below and
08:46as you can see they stay below. So the range of likely temperatures is below the average
08:51line throughout next week, although there are one or two spikes there, whiskers they're
08:56called, that just extend above the average, which gives a suggestion that not all of the
09:02model simulations have it cold for northern parts of the UK through next week. Similar
09:07for the overnight temperatures, coloured in blue. Southern parts of the UK show a lot
09:12more uncertainty. The boxes are bigger, the range of likely temperatures is much larger
09:16and some of these extend above the average line. And when we analyse what's happening
09:22for southern parts of the UK by looking at these individual model simulations of the
09:27temperature at 1.5km, so not exactly the temperature that you're going to experience on the surface
09:31but it gives an idea of the trend, there's this drop in temperatures over the weekend
09:36and then each of these dotted lines indicates the result of one simulation out of 52. Most
09:43of those 52 keep it cold for southern parts of the UK but there are these spikes here
09:48which are where Atlantic, milder, wetter weather takes over instead of keeping it cold
09:56with winds from the north. So next week the main uncertainty actually is what happens
10:02with these Atlantic lows that contain milder air and wetter conditions. One plausible scenario
10:09is that these lows stay away and we keep the cold northerly winds with wintry showers around
10:14the coast, perhaps some more prolonged wintry weather coming through in little weather fronts
10:18that come in from the north but many places actually crisp and clear. Another outcome
10:25which is coming through in a number of simulations is for these lows to approach from the south
10:30bringing spells of rain and then bumping into the cold air and in between somewhere across
10:36the UK likely to see some more prolonged snow, especially over hills but perhaps not exclusively.
10:44A slightly less likely outcome but still possible is for these lows to make more progress
10:50across the UK bringing more widespread wind and rain and bringing that mild air to most
10:56of the UK, so most of the UK ending up actually milder than average, wetter and windier. All
11:01of those outcomes are possible but some are more likely than others and it looks like
11:06the northerlies with some wintry weather in places are the more likely scenario but of
11:12course at this range, 7, 8, 9, 10 days ahead you'd never rule out other scenarios taking
11:19place as well and as we get further into the next few days we will of course be able to
11:24update you with all the very latest information right here at the Met Office. Bye bye.