日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年10月12日 10・27総選挙展望 識者が読む最新情勢
#EnglishMovie #cdrama #drama #engsub #chinesedramaengsub #movieshortfull
#EnglishMovie #cdrama #drama #engsub #chinesedramaengsub #movieshortfull
Category
🎥
Short filmTranscript
00:00TOSHIKAWA TAKAO
00:11Good morning.
00:13Today is October 12th.
00:14We have a question from Nikkei Saturday News.
00:16Let me introduce today's guest.
00:20He is Toshikawa Takao, an international journalist
00:23who is familiar with the political situation in Japan and abroad.
00:26Nice to meet you.
00:28He is Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Hosei University
00:32who specializes in modern political analysis in Japan.
00:35Nice to meet you.
00:38He is Takuya Yokobori, a member of the political department of TV Tokyo.
00:42Nice to meet you.
00:45Let's take a look at today's topic.
00:50Here it is.
00:51Let's take a look at the general election of the Tokai vote on October 27th.
00:55The result of the general election will determine the outcome of the election.
01:00So I'd like to talk about the future of the election today.
01:04The future of the general election.
01:08First of all, it is the debut of a foreign company to drive safely.
01:12The foreign company's debut was also successful.
01:14It is moving with a busy schedule.
01:16Mr. Yamaguchi, here it is.
01:18What is the real winning line?
01:22Mr. Ishiba also said that his goal is to get a majority by himself.
01:29But if he can't get a majority by himself,
01:32even if he gets a majority by himself,
01:34he may cause a stir in the People's Party.
01:37So I'd like to talk about that today.
01:40And there was big news yesterday.
01:43Yes, it's good news.
01:45The Japan Nucleic Acid Bomb Victims Association, which has been advocating for the disposal of nuclear weapons since October,
01:50has won the Nobel Peace Prize.
01:54This is really good news.
01:56They've been doing a lot of work.
01:59And the reason for the Nobel Peace Prize is that
02:04the nuclear bomb hasn't been detonated for nearly 80 years.
02:08There was a statement that it contributed to that.
02:11In that sense, it's really good news.
02:14Mr. Toshikawa, what did you think of it?
02:17It's really good news.
02:20Through the two summits,
02:23Mr. Kishida strongly advocated for a nuclear-free world.
02:27In a sense, this is the result of the root of the grass.
02:32But to put it simply,
02:34Korea won the Nobel Peace Prize in literature.
02:37In terms of the Peace Prize,
02:39Mr. Sato Esaki won it a long time ago.
02:42But even in Korea, Mr. Kishida won it.
02:45I wonder if there is such a regional consideration.
02:50I see.
02:51Mr. Shiratori, what do you think?
02:53I taught at Nagasaki when I was young,
02:56so I know very well that these people were doing it very seriously.
03:01In fact, I was studying abroad in Oslo.
03:04There is a memorial museum for the Nobel Peace Prize.
03:10I think it's a good thing that after Mr. Sato,
03:13these Japanese people will remain.
03:18It's an honorable thing.
03:20The timing of the international situation,
03:23Russia has been threatening nuclear weapons for a long time,
03:26and even in the Middle East,
03:28there is talk that Israel is a nuclear facility in Iran.
03:31Is that reflected in the situation?
03:33That's right.
03:34In the current situation in the world,
03:36the threat to nuclear weapons is increasing.
03:39On the other hand, as the only war-threatening country,
03:44I think it makes sense to pay attention to Japan's contribution.
03:48Yes.
03:49Then, after this is a special report.
03:51We will look at the whereabouts of the election campaign after that.
03:59I think it was a valuable opportunity to strongly express Japan's position.
04:06Yesterday, after the inauguration of the prime minister,
04:09the first foreign visit was held.
04:11The ASEAN-Southeast Asian Nations General Assembly,
04:15etc.
04:16Prime Minister Ishiba looked back at a series of foreign affairs.
04:22This week was a day to ask for his ability as a prime minister.
04:28I have always said that we need to respond properly
04:33to the public's distrust and anger
04:37over the issue of political funds.
04:48On the 6th,
04:49the so-called Vice-Prime Minister,
04:51who was seen to be recognized as a principle at one time,
04:55changed his mind and issued a policy of non-recognition.
05:01On the 9th,
05:02a debate was held for 80 minutes.
05:07I think the prime minister said that it was a considerable degree of non-recognition.
05:12I think there are more than 30 people who are recognized.
05:16To be precise,
05:17a considerable degree of non-recognition, isn't it?
05:21He says it's not enough.
05:22He says it's not enough.
05:23How severe is it?
05:25How painful is it for each person?
05:29Is it too sweet?
05:30Is it too much?
05:31I don't think about such things at all.
05:36The Japanese Foreign Affairs Council's representative, Baba,
05:39was asked if he would decide on recognition and non-recognition
05:42in the next presidential election.
05:46Prime Minister Ishiba said he would not respond differently
05:49in the next presidential election.
05:54Representative Tamaki of the National Democratic Party
05:57was asked not to use the production activity fee in this election,
06:02but Prime Minister Ishiba said he would use it appropriately
06:05in the scope allowed by the law.
06:09It was a serious debate on the stance of politics and money.
06:15Dismiss the congressman.
06:24After the debate, the congressman was dismissed.
06:28He rushed to the actual election.
06:34This dismissal is a dismissal of Japan.
06:38It is an attempt by the Japanese government
06:41to expand the flow of people and goods to the regions
06:44and to change the Japanese society
06:47that promotes digitalization.
06:53Prime Minister Ishiba wants this dismissal
06:56to be placed like this in the election,
06:59but the issue of the non-recognition of the congressman
07:02is still in the air.
07:06Yesterday, three people, including Mr. Sugita,
07:09who rejected the proposal for the non-recognition of the congressman,
07:12were dismissed.
07:14The non-recognition of the congressman
07:16includes 15 people.
07:19There is no explanation.
07:22I don't know why I was dismissed.
07:25I am confused.
07:29The non-recognition of the congressman
07:32has raised a lot of dissatisfaction among the congressmen.
07:35Some think that he will withdraw after the election.
07:41What is the evaluation of the Ishiba administration so far?
07:48Also, this week,
07:50attention was drawn to Prime Minister Ishiba's foreign policy debut.
07:53From the 10th,
07:55Prime Minister Ishiba met with the leaders of each country,
07:58such as Korea and China,
08:00in addition to the ASEAN General Assembly.
08:06At first, it was said that each country was cautious
08:09about the ASEAN-style NATO,
08:12which is the Prime Minister's own theory,
08:15but this time,
08:17there was no delay in strengthening relations with each country.
08:21Prime Minister Ishiba has safely made his foreign policy debut,
08:24but will he be able to win the upcoming general election
08:27and solidify the foundation of the government?
08:32First of all,
08:34I will dig deeper into the evaluation of the Ishiba administration.
08:37It has been a busy week.
08:39This week,
08:41the Ishiba administration
08:43has made a lot of efforts
08:45to strengthen the foundation of the government.
08:48Here is the schedule of the Ishiba administration this week.
09:18Mr. Yokobori,
09:20I think that Prime Minister Ishiba's life has changed
09:23since then.
09:25Yes.
09:27I think it was a very busy week.
09:29Among them,
09:31I think the most important thing
09:33is to strengthen the foundation of the government.
09:36I think that is the most important thing.
09:39I think that is the most important thing.
09:42I think that is the most important thing.
09:45I think that is the most important thing.
09:47I think that is the reason why
09:49Mr. Yokobori is cautious
09:51in many areas.
09:53I think that was his own habit.
09:55Mr. Toshikawa,
09:57what did you see this week?
09:59When I looked at this schedule,
10:01the most interesting thing
10:03I took into consideration
10:05is the judgment around the foundation
10:07of the judgment
10:09of the so-called certified flight crew
10:11held at the Kibito headquarter on the 5th and 6th.
10:13The first thing I was interested in
10:15If I were to talk about this in detail, I might have a chance to talk about it later, but to put it in one word,
10:22in a sense, I feel that there was a weakness in the staff of the Ishiba Kantei.
10:35Could you elaborate on that a little more?
10:37For example, Koizumi Juichiro-san had a secretary general named Isao Iijima.
10:44Abe-san had a secretary general named Takaya Imai, who later became the prime minister.
10:51This person had been involved in all kinds of policies in Abe's time.
10:56Furthermore, in the Kishida-Fumio administration,
11:01Takashi Shimada, who understood all the policies and was international,
11:10was the prime minister's secretary general.
11:13Compared to these people, unfortunately, the Ishiba Kantei is a little weak.
11:20I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of results it will produce later on.
11:26Mr. Shiratori.
11:27Yes.
11:28Well, we even had a debate on investment.
11:33However, it was too early to disband employees,
11:36so we only had a week, except for Saturday and Sunday.
11:40So, I wonder if the criteria for the decision of the people's vote has been presented.
11:48First of all, this is the issue of approval and non-approval for the election, which has been the focus of many discussions.
11:56I summarized this a little.
11:57Here is the response to the Vice-President.
11:59Of the Vice-President, 12 people were not approved.
12:03Mr. Shimomura, Mr. Nishimura, and Mr. Takagi, who were dismissed from their positions,
12:08Mr. Hagiuda, Mr. Hirasawa, Mr. Mitsubayashi, Mr. Kankeshi, Mr. Nakane, Mr. Odawara,
12:15Mr. Hosoda, who were dismissed from their positions,
12:18and Mr. Ochi, Mr. Imamura.
12:20Mr. Ochi expressed his dissatisfaction.
12:23And 34 people were approved, including Mr. Matsuno and Mr. Takeda, who were dismissed from their positions.
12:30They were approved, but the Non-Approval Act was not recognized.
12:35If they do not win the election, it will be a draw.
12:38And below, it says,
12:40Mr. Uesugi, Mr. Omishi, and Mr. Sugita, who were aiming for the Non-Approval Act on their own,
12:45resigned from the Non-Approval Act.
12:47I think there will be a lot of debate about whether this number of non-approvals is high or low.
12:54Mr. Yokobori, is there anything else to add?
12:59Yes. There is a question about how the Komeito side responded.
13:04In fact, the Komeito's Non-Approval Act,
13:07the non-approval people basically do not recommend.
13:11That was the policy.
13:13Some people are individually recommended.
13:16This is, well,
13:18if it is recognized,
13:20the Komeito will ask for a recommendation from the Komeito,
13:23and then recommend it.
13:25This is the normal flow.
13:27The Komeito does not do this, so they do not recommend it.
13:30That's what happened.
13:32This time, the non-approval people asked for a recommendation from the Komeito individually.
13:40The Komeito is supposed to be a party with a strict stance on politics and money.
13:47Recommending a candidate who is unapproved by the Komeito,
13:52how will this affect the Komeito?
13:57I think there was an assessment that this would contribute to the Komeito through local activities.
14:05Earlier, there was a person named Mitsubayashi.
14:12This person, a part of the old election bureau,
14:15was incorporated into the 14th Ward of the Komeito's Chairperson, Ishii.
14:21I think it would be great if the Komeito could cooperate with him.
14:26Mr. Shiratori, what do you think of the response to the non-approval?
14:30I think there is a problem in saying that this is a majority vote.
14:36That was also discussed in the debate with Mr. Noda.
14:39Moreover, the non-approval people's judgment criteria
14:44can be thought of as being understood by the locals.
14:48However, I think Mr. Ishiba's judgment is rather pessimistic.
14:53There is a vague sense of ambiguity.
14:56I don't think there is a sense of acceptance in that regard.
15:03Mr. Toshikawa.
15:04The key point that will come up later
15:08is to maintain a minimum number of votes based on the current situation.
15:16Considering that as a premise,
15:18within the scope of the Komeito's cooperation,
15:21the Kansai area is the area where the Komeito Association is focusing the most.
15:27While Ishii is said to be a little down in power,
15:30the Komeito is currently in the 6th term in each of Osaka and Hyogo's election bureaus.
15:37This is a very tough scenario for the Komeito,
15:42but the worst scenario is that
15:44even if the number of votes is less than zero,
15:48if Ishii's political party and the local government
15:52work together in a tough situation,
15:55I think that Osaka and Hyogo will be able to cooperate.
15:59Considering that,
16:02I think that the Komeito's election cooperation
16:09has come to fruition.
16:12I think this was a very troubling situation.
16:14The more unconfirmed cases there are,
16:17the more dangerous it is to determine whether or not the majority will be counted.
16:22Mr. Toshikawa, I'm sure you've done a lot of research on this,
16:26but what kind of attack was this?
16:28In the first place,
16:29there is a risk in making such a decision.
16:33I think this is a theme that will come up later,
16:35but it depends on the results of the election.
16:40Before that,
16:42there is a risk that the total number of voters will decrease
16:48by making such a decision.
16:54I think it's important to make a comprehensive judgment
16:58and see if such a result has come out.
17:01In fact, it is said that this was decided in the three-car race
17:06between Mr. Ichiba, Mr. Moriyama, and Mr. Koizumi,
17:11but I think it also goes back to what kind of influence
17:16there was from the outside.
17:19And the investment debate.
17:21Yes, the investment debate was held on the 9th.
17:23It was usually held for 45 minutes, but it was extended to 80 minutes.
17:27Representative Noda of the Liberal Democratic Party had 40 minutes.
17:31And the center of the discussion was the issue of politics and money.
17:34Representative Noda of the Liberal Democratic Party said
17:37that most of the candidates for re-election were recognized
17:40and that he could not accept the feelings of the people,
17:43and Prime Minister Ichiba said that the final decision
17:46would be left to the people of the candidates.
17:49Also, Representative Baba of the Liberal Democratic Party said
17:51that the three-car race next summer will be the same as the final race
17:54and asked if he would decide on whether to approve or not.
17:57He said that he would not respond differently between the candidates.
18:02And Representative Tamaki of the Liberal Democratic Party said
18:05that he would like the election not to spend a single yen on political activities.
18:09He said that it is now recognized and that it can be used.
18:14Mr. Yokobori, have you heard anything about the evaluation of the investment debate?
18:20Well, I think Mr. Ishiba answered in his own way.
18:26I can hear the voice that he said that he was thinking about it
18:29even around the Prime Minister.
18:32However, it was a debate,
18:35but I don't think there was much that Mr. Ishiba started from himself.
18:39It was a response that answered for a long time.
18:41That's right.
18:42Mr. Toshikawa, how was it?
18:43Well, as you just said, it basically turned into a disposition.
18:47However, considering the outcome of the general election,
18:52if Mr. Takahashi won, Mr. Takahashi would be there.
18:57If Shinjiro Koizumi won, Mr. Koizumi would be there.
19:02Considering that,
19:04Mr. Ishiba did not put anything in his hand.
19:08That's right.
19:09Even if he was in the lead,
19:12there were some scenes where he switched positions.
19:16I think he did a pretty good job.
19:22Mr. Shiratori.
19:23I don't think this was good.
19:25As for the representative question,
19:27he had been reading the paper all the time,
19:29so it was criticized.
19:31But this time he didn't read the paper,
19:33so he just spoke.
19:35For example, he said that he would respond in the same way with the three members.
19:40Or he said that he would use the policy-making cooperation in the election.
19:45This is pretty bad for the people.
19:49Next summer, if the three members do the same thing,
19:53what do you think the current candidates for the three-member election will think?
19:58There were about 100 members in the first place.
20:01If they do the same thing from now on,
20:03I think there is a possibility that it will be a success within the party.
20:06But if you don't make it happen,
20:09you'll go back to looking at the paper all the time again.
20:13What do you think about that?
20:15I think it's good that we could hear Mr. Ishiba's voice.
20:20But I think that the part that has been safe so far
20:24has collapsed at the end of this debate.
20:29Mr. Okubo, you said that you would respond in the same way until the three-member election,
20:33but I think you will be influenced by that later.
20:36If you make a statement once, you can't go back to the way it was.
20:40I think it was a little tough because it was said all the time.
20:45Yes.
20:46Now, let's take a look at the three-member election.
20:59Here's the second theme.
21:01What will happen in the three-member election?
21:03First, let's check the number of seats lost at the time of disbandment.
21:07The Liberal Democratic Party has 256 seats.
21:09The Komei Party has 32 seats.
21:11288 seats were lost at the time of disbandment.
21:14The Liberal Democratic Party has 98 seats.
21:17The Nippon Ishii Party has 40 seats.
21:19The Japanese Communist Party has 10 seats.
21:21The National Democratic Party has 7 seats, etc.
21:24And Prime Minister Ishiba said at a press conference after the disbandment
21:28that he wants to aim for a majority in the winning line, the Komei Party.
21:33Even if 55 seats are lost at the time of disbandment, the majority will be secured.
21:38The majority is 233, right?
21:41Yes.
21:42Let's take a look at the results of the public opinion poll.
21:44This is a public opinion poll conducted jointly by the Nikkei and the Telecom.
21:47It was conducted at the beginning of October.
21:51As you can see, the Kishida administration,
21:54At the end of the Kishida administration, 27% of the votes came up to 51%.
22:00If you look at the statistics,
22:02the results show that 51% of the votes came up to 51%
22:08after the Kishida administration became the prime minister.
22:13Mr. Shiratori, it's a bit early to predict,
22:18but what do you think about the general election?
22:21Officially, you're saying you want to get a majority.
22:25Mr. Ishiba, I feel like you've already drawn the umpire.
22:32I think the real winning line is probably whether or not the Komei Party can get a majority on its own.
22:40If that happens, you can only lose by about 20%.
22:44On the contrary, if the Komei Party can't get a majority on its own,
22:48I think you can say that the Komei Party has lost.
22:51Mr. Toshikawa, I've heard that you're doing a lot of research within the Komei Party.
22:56What do you think about the general election?
22:58First of all, if you look at this poll,
23:00you can't lose by more than 23% to maintain a majority on its own.
23:05As Mr. Shiratori said,
23:08it's almost impossible for anyone to predict at this point.
23:14In other words, the majority on its own will be divided.
23:17If that happens, the next goal will be to manage to get a majority of 233.
23:26Earlier, when we had a competition for the top 3 candidates on the 5th and 6th,
23:33we did it on the night of the 5th.
23:36I think it's okay to give this kind of information,
23:40but the Komei Party's director of the Komei Party,
23:43Mr. Motoshiku,
23:45has done an independent survey of the Komei Party.
23:48It's called a secret survey.
23:50The results are very detailed,
23:53with data from each political party.
23:57It's easy to understand.
23:59It's a one-eyed survey.
24:02On the first day,
24:04it was passed on to three people through Mr. Akasawa,
24:07the Prime Minister's right-hand man.
24:10The total number of people who saw this was less than five,
24:14but based on what was passed on,
24:17it seems that the 233 candidates,
24:21who matched the time of the accident,
24:25were slightly better than the others.
24:28That's what I heard in the introduction.
24:33Therefore, as you said,
24:36it's very difficult.
24:38The problem is that
24:40just by maintaining a low number of people at the time of the accident,
24:43the Ishima government will be safe from now on.
24:48I don't know how to look at this,
24:51but I'd like to leave it for later discussion.
24:55Now that we've organized it,
24:58let's see how the election results will affect us.
25:01I've prepared three scenarios.
25:05Here are the three scenarios.
25:08The election results.
25:10If the number of people alone is low,
25:13there is a possibility that Prime Minister Ishiba's support will increase.
25:16If Prime Minister Ishiba's support is low
25:19because of the accident,
25:21there is a possibility that Prime Minister Ishiba will be held accountable.
25:24If the support is low because of the accident,
25:27the government may change,
25:29or the Liberal Democratic Party may look for a new coalition.
25:33Mr. Okobori, I think there's a lot going on around here right now.
25:38In the case of the two of you,
25:40I think it's hard to get to the number of people alone.
25:43That's a subtle line, isn't it?
25:47At that time, what will happen to the unity of the party?
25:51Can you hear anything here?
25:53Even in the Liberal Democratic Party,
25:55I think there is little atmosphere that the number of people alone can be secured.
26:02As I said earlier, the number of people alone is not a high goal.
26:08I think that's enough.
26:10I think that's enough.
26:12I think that's enough.
26:14Mr. Toshikawa, if the number of people alone is low,
26:18what will happen?
26:20Or what will happen if the number of people alone is broken?
26:24If the number of people alone is broken,
26:27of course, it's the worst scenario.
26:29But for Mr. Toshikawa, for the Liberal Democratic Party,
26:32In that case, there is almost no doubt that the person in charge of the election,
26:36the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party,
26:38Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party,
26:40Mr. Hiroshi Moriyama, is the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party.
26:43At what time on the 27th, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party...
26:48That's confirmed by Mr. Toshikawa,
26:50but this time it was pretty unconfirmed, wasn't it?
26:52Of those people, almost automatically,
26:54If you win this time, you'll be added to the list.
26:57If you include all of these people,
26:59even if you add them to the lower half,
27:01Is it a meteorite?
27:03There is a very detailed case study for each situation.
27:10I think it's better to ask the Department of Homeland Security,
27:13which is covering the scene.
27:15At the moment, based on the data we have now,
27:19There is a possibility that such a meteorite earthquake will occur
27:22and cause an earthquake.
27:26This is a common sense in Nagata Prefecture.
27:29If that happens, what will happen is that
27:32Mr. Yoshimasa Hayashi, who is now the director of the Kanpochi Office,
27:35will become the prime minister's temporary deputy,
27:38and the chairman will also be appointed.
27:42Then we have to decide on a new chairman.
27:45So maybe from the 27th,
27:48even if it takes the longest time,
27:50in about three days,
27:52we will hold a meeting with the members of the House of Representatives,
27:56and decide on a new chairman.
27:59That person will also be appointed as the prime minister.
28:04In fact, it's a temporary government.
28:07In principle, based on Nagata Prefecture's common sense,
28:11or the common sense of the House of Representatives,
28:14who will be chosen as the new chairman?
28:16It is common sense for him or her to choose from the nine people
28:20who raised their hands in the previous general election.
28:26If that happens, it will be a difficult choice,
28:31but probably in this new Ishiba prefecture,
28:36Mr. Katsunobu Kato, who is now the Minister of Finance,
28:42received 20 votes in the last general election,
28:47but in the first general election,
28:50only 16 people voted for Mr. Kato.
28:54Yes, that's right.
28:55Immediately after that,
28:56the person who lost the most votes in this general election
28:59was said to be Mr. Kato.
29:02However, as a result,
29:05Mr. Kato, who was also surprised by the presidency of the Prime Minister,
29:10was appointed as the new chairman of the House of Representatives.
29:16Secondly, among these nine people,
29:19the one who will be the prime minister,
29:22the one who will be the most stable,
29:26the one who has no problems with the prime minister's answer,
29:29the so-called most stable person,
29:34will be Mr. Kato.
29:37But if Mr. Kato becomes the prime minister,
29:39it will be difficult.
29:41The people who showed the will of the anti-Ishiba
29:45and fought to the end to lose
29:47and supported Mr. Takaichi
29:50are the ones who are in charge of the party.
29:52The group led by Mr. Aso and Mr. Motegi
29:56is the main body, the Takaichi 3C group.
30:01From those people's point of view,
30:03how do they see Mr. Kato?
30:06This is also possible,
30:08but for the time being,
30:10if Mr. Suga is behind Mr. Kato,
30:13then it will be natural for the anti-Kato as well.
30:18Mr. Shiratori, what do you pay attention to?
30:20I'm a little confused about the story,
30:23but if you ask me why I'm doing this election,
30:28it's because the party's foundation is weak.
30:32If I win this election,
30:34I should be hoping for this election
30:37because I can put my faith in myself.
30:43I think that among these three scenarios,
30:46the dropout will probably be in the middle.
30:51If you think about it normally,
30:53if you can get a single vote in the first scenario,
30:56as Mr. Ishiba said,
30:58your faith in yourself will increase.
31:02But that's pretty difficult at this stage.
31:05What happens in the middle scenario
31:08is that you can't get a single vote.
31:11When that happens,
31:13Mr. Ishiba will have to continue
31:17even if he doesn't get a single vote.
31:22When that happens,
31:24even if he doesn't get a single vote,
31:27I think that the dropout will probably
31:30start gradually.
31:34In the previous debate,
31:36you said that you're thinking about
31:39joining the Senate next year.
31:41I think that the Senate members
31:43will probably be unrecognized.
31:45I don't know the criteria for the decision
31:47of those who are unrecognized.
31:49To put it simply,
31:50I think they'll choose someone
31:52who is likely to lose the election.
31:54There was a statement that applied the same rule,
31:57so I think it's understandable.
31:59I think they'll be unrecognized
32:01in the Senate.
32:03That's the foundation.
32:04If that happens,
32:06those people will desperately
32:08start killing Ishiba
32:09in order to survive.
32:12Mr. Toshikawa,
32:15even if you get a single vote,
32:18what do you think about
32:20whether Mr. Ishiba will remain
32:22a member of the Ishiba government
32:24until the election?
32:26If we look at what Mr. Shiratori
32:28just said,
32:32who will be the next people
32:35to kill Ishiba?
32:38Who do you think
32:41will be the next people
32:43to kill Ishiba?
32:45If that happens,
32:47the people who meet the criteria
32:49will not be
32:51Mr. Takaichi,
32:53who was unrecognized
32:55in the general election.
32:57So,
32:59how do you decide
33:01whether Mr. Takaichi
33:03will be the next person
33:05to kill Ishiba?
33:07When you think about
33:09the results of the last election,
33:11it was a very tough time.
33:13Among the results of that tough time,
33:15the group that received
33:17the most damage
33:19was
33:21the group
33:23that challenged Mr. Ishiba
33:25from the old Abe faction.
33:27I think it was
33:29Mr. Asou
33:31and Mr. Motegi's group.
33:33If such a group
33:35could be formed,
33:37would it be possible
33:39to use Mr. Takaichi
33:41to kill Mr. Ishiba
33:43as the next person
33:45to kill Ishiba?
33:47If that's the case,
33:49I have a question.
33:51Let's take a look
33:53at the movement of the opposition party.
33:55How will the opposition party respond?
33:57On the opposition party's election
33:59cooperation,
34:01Representative Noda of the Liberal Democratic Party
34:03said,
34:05I don't think
34:07we can adjust
34:09from now on.
34:11I don't think
34:13we can build a cooperative relationship
34:15from now on.
34:17Representative Tamaki of the Liberal Democratic Party
34:19said on the 11th
34:21that it is impossible
34:23to get rid of
34:25one candidate from the opposition party
34:27independently.
34:29The Liberal Democratic Party
34:31is fighting as a Liberal Democratic Party.
34:33Mr. Yokobori,
34:35do you think that
34:37the opposition party's cooperation
34:39is limited?
34:41Yes, I think
34:43we don't have enough time.
34:45Also, when the opposition party
34:47is strong,
34:49it is easier for the Liberal Democratic Party
34:51to advance.
34:53On the other hand,
34:55it seems that
34:57the Liberal Democratic Party
34:59is weak this time.
35:01The opposition party
35:03can't get rid of
35:05even one candidate
35:07independently.
35:09Certainly,
35:11it is difficult to convince
35:13people who have been preparing
35:15for it for years
35:17that there is such a chance.
35:19That's right.
35:21I think that's why
35:23the opposition party
35:25couldn't move forward smoothly.
35:27Mr. Shiratori,
35:29I think that
35:31the Liberal Democratic Party
35:33is weak.
35:35If the opposition party
35:37is united,
35:39it is weak.
35:41However,
35:43I think that
35:45the Liberal Democratic Party
35:47can win because
35:49the political criticism
35:51is distributed.
35:53However,
35:55as I said earlier,
35:57I think that
35:59the future of the Shiba
36:01administration
36:03and the future of the party
36:05will be decided by the opposition party.
36:07I think that the people
36:09can adjust
36:11between the parties.
36:13Other than that,
36:15the opposition party
36:17has won the seats
36:19in a proportional way,
36:21so if they don't put them
36:23in the primary election,
36:25I think there will be
36:27a situation similar to that.
36:29After the commercial break,
36:31let's take a look
36:33at how the foreign ministers
36:35accepted Prime Minister Ishiba's
36:37foreign ministry debut.
36:39The third topic is
36:41the results of his first foreign ministry.
36:43Prime Minister Ishiba
36:45visited Laos on the 10th
36:47and attended a meeting
36:49of the ASEAN-Asia Partnership
36:51and the ASEAN-related
36:53countries, including China,
36:55South Korea, and India.
36:57He also held talks between
36:59the two countries.
37:01Mr. Toshikawa,
37:03how do you see
37:05this first foreign ministry
37:07debut?
37:09I feel that
37:11it has been organized
37:13safely.
37:15Of course, many people
37:17are wondering if
37:19Mr. Ishiba himself
37:21is considering
37:23a foreign ministry
37:25as his first foreign ministry.
37:27He was interested in
37:29whether he was considering
37:31a foreign ministry
37:33against the ASEAN-Asia Partnership,
37:35and he was able to
37:37put in a lot of steps
37:39for China,
37:41as well as for
37:43the ASEAN-Asia Partnership.
37:45Mr. Ishiba,
37:47you said that
37:49you were accepted
37:51as a member of the ASEAN-Asia Partnership.
37:53What is your true intention?
37:55Mr. Ishiba,
37:57as Mr. Sato Yu,
37:59the author of the book,
38:01said that
38:03Mr. Ishiba's
38:05true nature as a politician
38:07is not to overlook
38:09his Christianity.
38:11That is an important factor.
38:13In other words,
38:15when he was 18,
38:17his mother's grandfather
38:19was an educator
38:21of the Christian church
38:23in the early Meiji period,
38:25and his first disciple
38:27was his mother's
38:29great-grandfather.
38:31On the other hand,
38:33his father's family
38:35was a political family
38:37with three children.
38:39In order to realize
38:41the political goal
38:43that Mr. Ishiba,
38:45the author of the book,
38:47had set for himself,
38:49we thought about
38:51what we could do
38:53in that process.
38:55Mr. Ishiba pointed out
38:57how to deal with
38:59such a theme
39:01that would be contrary
39:03to the political
39:05proposal
39:07to realize
39:09the Christian church
39:11and its policies.
39:13Mr. Ishiba is a very experienced
39:15Christian, and he is
39:17a very strict supporter
39:19of the Calvinist Protestants.
39:21However,
39:23there is no contradiction
39:25in his faith.
39:27How does that come about?
39:29Let me give you
39:31an example from my interview.
39:33Mr. Ishiba is a politician
39:35who believes in
39:37God's protection,
39:39but at the same time
39:41he is also a realist
39:43of the Tanaka family
39:45whom he respects a lot.
39:47In other words,
39:49whether it is the Ajaban Natto
39:51or the re-election
39:53of the Japan-US regional agreement,
39:55there is no reality at the moment,
39:57but towards that goal,
39:59that process,
40:01in other words,
40:03even if it is criticized
40:05as a derogatory statement
40:07for a while,
40:09it is because of this
40:11way of thinking,
40:13this position,
40:15that before going to Vienna,
40:17surprisingly,
40:19after the meeting was over,
40:21he instructed the foreign security
40:23officials to prepare
40:25a new security strategy
40:27for Asia.
40:29In a sense,
40:31this is Mr. Ishiba's
40:33true strength.
40:35Surprisingly,
40:37Mr. Ishiba,
40:39I think,
40:41will be burned.
40:43Yes.
40:45One thing is that
40:47Mr. Ishiba's meeting
40:49this time
40:51is said to be
40:53out of place
40:55because of the re-election.
40:57If it goes on like this,
40:59he will not be able
41:01to get many points
41:03in the re-election.
41:05What he showed abroad
41:07is that he will continue
41:09the foreign policy
41:11of the Kishida administration.
41:13I think that is what he showed.
41:15However,
41:17even for NICHU,
41:19or
41:21even for the Asia Bank,
41:23well,
41:25they have just been
41:27appointed for the first time,
41:29and they have not been able
41:31to communicate with the sea
41:33for a long time.
41:35So,
41:37I think that
41:39Mr. Ishiba's meeting
41:41will be regarded as
41:43a safe decision.
41:45Let's take a look
41:47at NICHU.
41:49Mr. Ishiba
41:51had a meeting
41:53with the Chinese Prime Minister
41:55Li Ke,
41:57which lasted about 35 minutes.
41:59Mr. Li and Mr. Ke
42:01Mr. Ishiba also
42:03expressed his serious concerns
42:05about the actions of the Chinese military
42:07around Japan,
42:09and asked for an explanation
42:11to the Chinese military
42:13about the Ryoku trial.
42:15In addition,
42:17he asked for an explanation
42:19of the fact-finding
42:21and explanation
42:23of the incident
42:25in which a man
42:27went to a Japanese school
42:29and the Japanese government
42:31did not react badly.
42:33Mr. Yokobori,
42:35can you hear me?
42:37Yes,
42:39Mr. Ishiba said
42:41that the Japanese government
42:43did not know
42:45how strong the Japanese government
42:47was,
42:49but I think
42:51that the Japanese government
42:53was able to appeal
42:55to the Japanese government
42:57about the Ryoku trial.
42:59Yes, I can see it
43:01in the video.
43:03On the left side of Mr. Ishiba
43:05is Mr. Takeo Akiba,
43:07the director of the Ministry of National Defense.
43:09He wrote
43:11about the strategic relationship
43:13between Japan and Japan.
43:15He was the one
43:17who created the concept
43:19of the strategic relationship
43:21between Japan and Japan.
43:23At the time of the Abe administration,
43:25Mr. Takeo Akiba,
43:27the director of the Ministry of National Defense,
43:29was the one who created
43:31the concept of the strategic relationship
43:33between Japan and Japan.
43:35In addition,
43:37on the 25th of last month,
43:39Mr. Takeo Akiba
43:41sent a delegation
43:43of the Japan Self-Defense Force
43:45to the Taiwan Strait
43:47at the end of President Kishida's term.
43:49This is unbelievable for China.
43:51It has been 70 years
43:53since President Kishida's term.
43:55There has never been a case
43:57where the Japan Self-Defense Force
43:59has crossed the Taiwan Strait
44:01that China claims
44:03as its own territorial waters.
44:05Mr. Kishida has clearly
44:07made a strong appeal
44:09to China
44:11and has been stopped.
44:13At that time,
44:15Mr. Akiba,
44:17who is now
44:19on the left side of Mr. Ishiba,
44:21was also there.
44:23In other words,
44:25Mr. Akiba is a key person
44:27to decide whether or not
44:29Mr. Kishida and Mr. Ishiba
44:31can inherit
44:33the foreign policy
44:35of the Japan Self-Defense Force.
44:37They are surrounding Mr. Ishiba
44:39to maintain the foreign policy
44:41of the Japan Self-Defense Force.
44:43But what I want to say is
44:45that even though
44:47Mr. Ishiba has sent
44:49a letter to China,
44:51Mr. Kishida has also
44:53sent a letter to China.
44:55Mr. Ishiba,
44:57who is known as
44:59the unknown number,
45:01has issued a very
45:03positive joint statement.
45:05I think that China
45:07is now
45:09economically
45:11quite cornered.
45:13I think that China
45:15has set up this
45:17situation.
45:19Mr. Takaiji,
45:21do you think it was a good thing
45:23that Mr. Takaiji was not there?
45:25Not only the Chinese government,
45:27but also the US government,
45:29don't you think?
45:31Well,
45:33if you look at the
45:35Ishiba administration
45:37and its members,
45:39you can see that
45:41there are a lot of
45:43experienced defense ministers.
45:45There are a lot of things
45:47that I'm curious about
45:49in Mr. Ishiba's diary.
45:51I'm really curious about
45:53what will happen
45:55to the Japan Self-Defense Force
45:57and when will it
45:59go to the US.
46:01Mr. Toshikawa,
46:03what do you think?
46:05I'm not a judge of Mr. Ishiba,
46:07so I'm a fact-finding
46:09writer.
46:11If Mr. Ishiba can
46:13support the Japanese government,
46:15this is my assumption.
46:17I mentioned Mr. Ishiba's
46:19Christianity issue
46:21earlier in December.
46:23Mr. Ishiba is a
46:25protestant group called
46:27the Graben faction.
46:29This group is
46:31the same as
46:33President Trump.
46:35In other words,
46:37in December,
46:39he visited New York
46:41and met Mr. Ishiba.
46:43If Mr. Ishiba can support the Japanese government,
46:45Mr. Trump will hug Mr. Ishiba.
46:47I'm told that
46:49they don't get along.
46:51Actually, they do.
46:53That's all for today.
46:55After the commercial break,
46:57we will have market information.
47:11Next, market information.
47:41Next, market information.
48:11Next, market information.
48:41Yes, of course.
48:43On the 17th,
48:45at the EU General Assembly,
48:47the EU is a political organization,
48:49and NATO is another
48:51military organization.
48:53This time, NATO
48:55became the new chief of staff.
48:57How will they
48:59respond to the Ukraine
49:01or Gaza issue?
49:03That's the point.
49:05How about you, Mr. Toshikawa?
49:07On the 18th,
49:09in the House of Representatives,
49:11all the economic figures
49:13and data
49:15are related to
49:17the election results.
49:19What will happen
49:21after the 27th?
49:23Will Mr. Ishiba
49:25be able to win
49:27at the end of the year?
49:29What will happen
49:31to the Japanese economy
49:33after the
49:35end of the year?
49:37That's what I'm interested in.
49:39The economic situation
49:41will affect the election results.
49:43Thank you,
49:45Mr. Toshikawa,
49:47Mr. Shiratori and Mr. Yokobori.
50:07For more UN videos visit www.un.org