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00:00Now, back to Stiney and Guru on 95.7 The Game.
00:04All righty, the crossover is brought to you by Abundant Life Weight Loss.
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00:15Let's welcome in Dan Dibley and Mark Willard.
00:19What's up, gentlemen?
00:20How are you?
00:21Hi, boys.
00:22What's going on?
00:23Hey.
00:24What's up?
00:25What's up?
00:26What's happening?
00:27Well, you tell us.
00:28We're talking warriors, Jimmy Butler, the optimism, Draymond guaranteeing, well, not
00:34quite guaranteeing, but talking about championship.
00:38You think he believes it?
00:39You think it's realistic?
00:42Do you wonder why he said it?
00:44Do you wonder if he was saying it to someone in particular or to a group?
00:48We broke it down.
00:49Yeah.
00:50Let me ask it this way, because of those questions you just threw out there.
00:54Here's the one that sticks out to me.
00:57Do you think he believes it?
01:00Draymond Green found himself, he's done a good job of, he's in that space now, right?
01:05TNT, like Stephen A. Smith is almost live tweeting what Draymond is saying during the
01:12All-Star Telecast as if he's proud of him for saying all of these kind of outlandish
01:18things.
01:19Is Draymond just one of a group of about, I don't know, 10 to 20 media members, seemingly
01:28a lot of it is centered on the NBA.
01:30Do you think that they believe what they're saying?
01:33I think he believes if the circumstances broke correctly, yeah, they could win it.
01:40Do you think it matters if he believes what he's saying?
01:43Yes.
01:44Do you?
01:45Yeah, if he doesn't think they can win it, I think that the last 27 games have potential
01:49to be not very fun, and he can make it not fun.
01:53I guess what I mean, though, is like when he decided to do that on TNT during All-Star
01:59Weekend, do you think it's relevant whether or not he really believes what he's saying?
02:05But that's the other detail about this.
02:06He was saying it all weekend.
02:08He was telling people at tech conferences on Friday, according to Sam Amick, he was
02:14telling people on Saturday.
02:17He was saying this before he went on television with it.
02:19Well, that makes me feel like it might be a little premeditated then.
02:22Yeah, it also means that I think he does believe it, otherwise he wouldn't be screaming it
02:27on and off the mic to the world.
02:29I think Draymond's getting real good at media.
02:31That's what I think.
02:32Right.
02:33And I also think that he has to believe it.
02:35If you're in a spot where you've done it four times, and I think about the 21-22 season
02:41where they actually did win it, and the way they won it is the only way that they could
02:46win it this year, and Mark and I will get into it, and I do think that there is a path
02:51to them winning it, and it has to be similar to what happened in 2022, where you faced
02:56Denver and you didn't have Murray, and Aaron Gordon played a little bit, but he wasn't
03:02quite what he was yet, and even the Joker, he was still emerging as the best player in
03:08the league.
03:09He wasn't quite there yet, but you didn't have the big piece in Murray, and so you got
03:14them.
03:15And then you played Memphis, and you were in real trouble, and then John Morant got
03:19hurt, and when he got hurt, that series turned on a dime, and then you faced Dallas, which
03:24was Luka and a bunch of, I mean, nobodies is probably mean and cruel because those are
03:31actual paid NBA players, but I went to a few of those games, and Dallas wasn't quite ready,
03:37and Luka had no help, and then you went on and you took on a Boston team that was probably
03:43better than you, and it took a Steph Curry game for the ages against a team that, again,
03:49they hadn't yet been there, they hadn't yet done it, and they were able to get over on
03:52Boston, so if you look at this year, there is a similar path, where you face an inexperienced
03:59Houston team, and you go up against another team in the West that maybe sustains an injury
04:04to a key player, and you get to an NBA Finals against, not Boston, but let's say Cleveland,
04:11and even OKC, OKC is better than the Warriors, but they haven't been there, and they haven't
04:16done it, so I do think that there is a path.
04:19Is it a long shot?
04:21Absolutely, but I do think that the Warriors now with Jimmy Butler, they have a little
04:25bit more of the pedigree that it would take to navigate, if they even get to the playoffs,
04:30by the way, but if they get there, I do think that they have the experience and the pedigree
04:35to navigate these things and, you know, catch a couple of breaks, and I can see where it
04:41could possibly happen.
04:43Yeah, I have trouble seeing it, but if Draymond's saying it, I do know that there's a part of
04:51him that's a really smart basketball player, who can see things that a lot of people can't,
04:58and I don't dismiss the fact that maybe he's seen something or knows something about this
05:06team and the ways it can get better, and he feels like they can, and that allows him
05:13to believe they can beat anybody again, and I also think he just looks at it with Jimmy
05:19Butler and says, me, Jimmy, and Steph, I'll take our chances.
05:25Forget about any of the other players, but we got three big boys right here.
05:28Yeah, and I have a hard time seeing it too, Stiney, but I can't help but think about 22
05:33win.
05:34I also had a hard time seeing it, and granted, they were a three seed, and they were a team
05:38with 53 wins, and this year they're trending rather toward, you know, 45 to 48 would be
05:46the most likely range, I think, so you're not going to be a three seed, but even if
05:50you're a six and you go up against, I don't know, there are teams that if you look at
05:54the top six, there are teams that you look at and think, okay, I like their chances against
05:59Houston, for example, a team that has no experience doing what they've done, and you
06:04look at, you know, Denver would be tough, and Oklahoma City, I think, is a bad matchup,
06:09but you've beaten them two out of three times, so at least when you face OKC in the regular
06:14year, you've been able to compete, if not be better than them without Jimmy Butler.
06:19Yeah.
06:20I'm sorry, go ahead.
06:21No, I was just going to say, the fact that they're talking about it, it's like, I mean,
06:25last time, I don't think that Draymond says what he said if Jimmy Butler wasn't traded
06:30to the Warriors on February 6th.
06:33Yeah.
06:34I mean, he was already trying to, I'm sure, to your point, Mark, he was trying to figure
06:37out what he was going to say, because he knew he was coming on during All-Star weekend and
06:40wanted to make noise.
06:42I don't think he would have guaranteed a championship this season if Jimmy Butler wasn't on the
06:46roster.
06:47Do you guys remember what the Warriors' record was, 55 games in back in 2022?
06:52It was really good.
06:53It's probably about the same.
06:55No, I think it's much better.
06:57You think it's about the same?
06:58Yeah.
06:59No, 2022.
07:002022.
07:01The year that they won it.
07:02Did you compare?
07:03Yeah, you compared?
07:04Right, because I remember that, like, Steph set out the last, like, five or six weeks
07:06of the year, and, you know, it wasn't until Stiney and Guru had him on the show that you
07:10thought, oh, he's playing.
07:11You're right, and I don't think it was that long.
07:13I think it was more like two or three weeks, but yes.
07:15Like, 35 and 20?
07:16Yeah, um, 41 and 14.
07:20Yeah.
07:21Wow.
07:22If you compare that to this, I think we're talking about a completely different animal.
07:28And also, by the way, um, and I know, I'm not sure if this is what you're saying, Dibs,
07:33so, like, I'll kind of bat it back to you so that you can explain, but I, I sometimes,
07:39I have a hard time when people look at championship runs and go, oh, they caught breaks that year,
07:44like everything sort of twisted their way.
07:46I think we misremember sometimes, like, for instance, you mentioned the series against
07:50Memphis, and apparently it turned on a dime when Ja Morant got knocked out.
07:55Ja Morant got knocked out in game three.
07:58That's when he played the first three games of the series.
08:01The Warriors led that series 2-1 when he left, and they absolutely canned Memphis in the
08:06final game that Ja Morant played.
08:08Then he left, and actually Memphis played, you could argue, during the regular season
08:13Ja missed a lot of games that year, and they played better, at least had a better record
08:17without him.
08:18So, it's not me saying Ja's not a great player, but it's me sort of, if you're saying that
08:23the Warriors kind of got lucky that year, I don't agree.
08:28Is that what you're saying?
08:30I didn't say lucky.
08:31That's what I'm asking you.
08:32No.
08:33Well, they, they, they caught breaks, though.
08:34They caught breaks.
08:35They didn't have to play the one seed.
08:36Phoenix lost to Dallas.
08:37Right.
08:38Because they got COVID.
08:39Okay.
08:40And you didn't have to face Jamal Murray in Denver, who is a problem, because he was hurt
08:42for the majority of the year.
08:43I don't know if I, I mean, that was a first-round knock-out.
08:45Look at who, look at who Denver had in that series.
08:47Yeah.
08:48Like, Denver wasn't beating the Warriors that year.
08:50Like, Denver was not as good as the Warriors that year.
08:52It was a first-round match-up.
08:53Right.
08:54It was a 3-6 match-up.
08:55Yeah.
08:56And, you know, Denver didn't have Jamal Murray, and so they weren't as good.
08:58Or, or MPJ.
08:59Right.
09:00And so, if you look at what Denver had, they had Jokic, and they had Boogie Cousins, and
09:05that's about it.
09:06Yeah.
09:07That's right.
09:08You go ahead and look at the team that they had.
09:09That's who they were that year.
09:10Right.
09:11They weren't beating the Warriors that year.
09:12Whether they had Jamal Murray or not, in my opinion.
09:13Whether or not, you know, the Warriors, they canned Memphis in Game 3, and Ja got hurt,
09:17and then they went on to win two of the next three.
09:20They won two of the three with Ja that was in.
09:22Right.
09:23But they barely beat them in Game 4, as I recall, 1-0-1-98, as I was just looking at
09:27that.
09:28So, it's not as if, you know, they were completely dominant in the series.
09:33No.
09:34I guess I'm just, they weren't.
09:35I guess what I'm asking, Alec, I don't see any evidence that it became an easier series
09:39when Ja left.
09:40They were completely in control of the series when Ja was there.
09:43Well, they were up 2-1.
09:44Yeah.
09:45So, I wouldn't say they were completely in control.
09:462-1 with them.
09:472-1 without them.
09:48And then, you know, you did avoid Phoenix, as Evan just pointed out, the number one seed,
09:52and I think they won, what, 66 games that year in the regular season.
09:55Right.
09:56They were the best team in the regular year.
09:57They were.
09:58And you didn't have to play them.
09:59Like, I guess.
10:00So, that to me is a break.
10:01It's a break, but, like, there's something different to me between, like, did you get
10:06breaks or did you get lucky?
10:08Like, we don't know what would have happened if they had played Phoenix.
10:11Phoenix obviously got to the playoffs, and they were not built for that the way that
10:15we thought they were.
10:16So, I don't know that they actually would have been that hard.
10:18I guess my overall point is, I don't see, at least not yet, I don't see anything this
10:25year that right now lends me to believe this could play out the same way that 2022 did.
10:31I don't see the comp at this moment.
10:33Well, I mean, it could.
10:34It'd have to be different.
10:35Exactly.
10:36I mean, first of all, you have to get in the playoffs, and then, you know, and if you want
10:40to talk about breaks, like, Toronto got breaks when they beat the Warriors in the finals
10:46because you lost Klay and KD in back-to-back games.
10:49So, does Toronto win the series anyway?
10:52Maybe Toronto was better than people want to remember, but they definitely got breaks
10:57in that two of the three best Golden State Warriors had career-altering injuries.
11:02So, yeah, it doesn't mean that Toronto doesn't get a title, it just means they got breaks.
11:07I guess I'm saying, like, I think you could probably almost look at any title run in the
11:12history of ever and point to breaks.
11:15I mean, the Warriors have got them in some of their other title years, too.
11:20It A, that doesn't, it doesn't mean that it was some sort of a lucky strike that they
11:26were able to win, and I think they completely deserved it, but I don't think that you're
11:30saying otherwise.
11:31So, I guess what I'm questioning is whether 2022's path then means that there's a path
11:39this year, too.
11:40They would need a hell of a lot more than breaks this year.
11:43They would need to play a completely different brand of basketball than we've seen them play
11:47so far.
11:48That's my opinion.
11:49That's all.
11:50You're listening to 95.7 The Game, KGMZ FM and HD1 San Francisco, always live on the
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12:00I do think there's another aspect to this, like when we talk about that year, they, if
12:08I remember correctly, the seeding was all mixed up going late into the year.
12:14Like they didn't, like they were three and they didn't know who they were, anyway, what
12:19I remember is they end up with Denver, and I thought, well, there's no way Denver can
12:24beat them because they don't have Murray or Porter.
12:28Okay, they got a break, but I think what really matters is the Warriors had a very easy, non-competitive
12:36first round series.
12:37Like they were up 3-0, you know, it was a gentleman's sweep.
12:41They were going to lose, they lost game four at home, and so, you know, they had a relatively
12:46low stress for the Denver game, for Denver series, and then here comes Memphis and maybe
12:52they're more well-rested.
12:53Maybe.
12:54I mean, I'm looking at the standings right now.
12:55If they finished one game ahead of Dallas, Warriors were the three seed, Dallas was the
13:00four.
13:01If the Warriors had fallen to four, they would have played Utah, which is shocking to me
13:05because I don't even remember.
13:06I can't even remember.
13:07I don't remember Utah being good that recently.
13:09Does anybody else remember what that team was even made of?
13:12Yeah, I think they had Donovan Mitchell on that team, right?
13:15Yeah.
13:16The one that was the one seed?
13:17Yeah.
13:18Yeah, Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, when he was good.
13:19The thing, I mean, I think the path that if you're really searching for one that's maybe
13:23more realistic is the path that Jimmy Butler's Heat team took two years ago as the eight
13:29seed, which included a pretty big break, which was Giannis Antetokounmpo getting hurt in
13:34the first round series against the Bucs and then catching a Boston team that was clearly
13:39not ready yet in seven games.
13:42But and I ran this by Stiney earlier, I don't know what you guys think about it.
13:45I feel like now that they have Curry and Butler, you have arguably two of the best closers
13:53over the last three to five years.
13:55And when it comes down to a postseason game in the final two minutes that's in the balance,
14:00I feel pretty good about their chances now where I did not before because I've seen it
14:05and now they have two of those guys.
14:07And I don't know, is that going to be good enough for them to get to the finals and win
14:10a championship?
14:11No.
14:12But Curry's been able to take this team to places we didn't think and Jimmy Butler to
14:17some extent has also done the same.
14:19Like I want to feel the way you guys are feeling.
14:23It's been four games.
14:25My mind has not gone to championship or title run yet.
14:30My mind when I saw everything that Draymond did this weekend was somebody who is doing
14:36the same thing I've seen him do pretty much every week for the last two to three years
14:40of his life, which is whether it's on a podcast or as a guest on TNT, he really good at saying
14:45things that get people to talk about him.
14:48He's really good at saying things that are memorable and this fits right into that.
14:52And I'm not even saying whether he believes it or not, I believe the Warriors feel a lot
14:56better about themselves than they did two weeks ago.
15:00But to be 27 and 26, I mean honestly, here's an exercise, how would we feel about his statement
15:08if they had simply lost against Houston the other night?
15:12Just that game.
15:15Like I heard the fan base come in that morning after blowing that game in Dallas, which they
15:20didn't even really blow because it got outplayed the entire night, but they lost a game against
15:23Dallas that on paper we didn't think they would lose and then they did.
15:27And the fan base was like, nope, still not it.
15:31I know Jimmy's here, but that was ridiculous.
15:34And so if they had followed that up with a loss against Houston, would anybody even have
15:38an open mind to what Draymond said?
15:41Or would he have said it?
15:42I don't know.
15:43Yeah, I don't either.
15:44I mean, he said it.
15:47Right.
15:48So, you know.
15:49Did he mean it though?
15:51Then you have to be, you know, you kind of have to decipher it.
15:54For somebody like me, who thinks, like before the trade, I'm like, who are these guys kidding?
16:01This thing's over.
16:02Okay, now you get Jimmy Butler and I'm like, okay, nice acquisition, but you're still intent.
16:07And then Draymond Green says, we're going to win it.
16:10I mean, it makes me think, could they?
16:15And I can't shut the door after 2022, even though it was three years ago.
16:20Like, you just can't.
16:22I can say, I think you're crazy, Draymond, I don't think it's going to happen.
16:27But it's making me think, is it possible?
16:30Well, it's possible.
16:31And the odds makers would tell you that it's a long shot.
16:34They're at 65 to one right now.
16:36And they are tied for the fifth longest or the fifth best odds rather in the West.
16:41You've got OKC, Denver, the Lakers, Memphis, and then the Clippers, and then Houston and
16:46Golden State tied.
16:47So they have the sixth best odds.
16:50So the odds makers are telling you that it's a long shot.
16:53It's 65 to one, Houston is 65 to one, Minnesota 70, Dallas 85.
16:59They're telling you that you're in that group.
17:01So yeah, it's probably not going to happen.
17:03But I think about 2022 and the path that they got and the breaks that they got, and
17:09it would take, in my opinion, a similar run.
17:12And, you know, Mark, I had no idea what their record was.
17:15And you said 41 and 14.
17:17And I was just looking at Steph's game log, and he missed the last six weeks of the year.
17:21He missed the final 12 games.
17:23And during that time, they only they won six of those 12.
17:27So they were limping to the finish line before that.
17:30And yet, you got to the end of the regular season, and they kind of flipped the switch.
17:34They only played 12 games in six weeks?
17:37The last game he played was March 16th, and then the last game they played was April 10th.
17:42So that is four weeks, basically.
17:45He missed the last 12 games of the year.
17:47And they went six and six.
17:48So before that, they lost, I'm looking at five in a row, and they lost eight of 10.
17:54If you want to say, like, not seeing Phoenix feels like a break, I'll buy that.
17:59The other break, if you even want to call this a break, is, and yeah, Dibbs is right,
18:05Stiney, like, I'll never, I will never forget that interview you guys did.
18:10I will never forget it.
18:13Because I was not only listening to what he was saying, I was so struck by what it meant
18:17that he was even sitting there with you guys.
18:19I'm like, they're good to go.
18:21They're ready to rock.
18:23And so yes, they got, they didn't just get relative health, they had health health.
18:28I mean, they were full strength.
18:30And Curry was rested.
18:31Right.
18:32Yeah.
18:33Right.
18:34That was also a break.
18:35I mean, although, would an NBA team in today's day and age of analytics, would they tell
18:39you that that was a break, or would they tell you that that's a break that they made?
18:43Like that's kind of the, that is one of the points that they are all making with load
18:48management.
18:49I think it was a silver lining to a late season injury.
18:52Yeah.
18:53Here's the other thing.
18:54They also didn't have to bring him back.
18:55Like he came off the bench because Poole dispatched Denver in that first round series.
19:00Yeah.
19:01When I, when I think, yeah, right.
19:02When I think of the Warriors in 2022, okay, they played Boston in the finals.
19:06Well, now I can look, now I look back and say, you know what?
19:10Boston wasn't ready.
19:12Yeah.
19:13And that's, but that's not luck.
19:14Right.
19:15That's still really good.
19:16That's the Warriors being a championship team.
19:18And they were, they were a full strength, good team.
19:21Yeah.
19:22They like, they were healthy.
19:23They were ready to ride.
19:24And maybe something like that would, were to happen where, you know, you're not going
19:27to beat Boston this year, but maybe the Cavaliers knock Boston off or Boston has an injury and
19:33then the Cavs are in and they're not ready.
19:36Maybe they're not going to be ready or the, whoever the third seat is who makes the playoffs.
19:40So I, you know, it's, I don't call it luck.
19:43I think it's more, sometimes things fall into place.
19:46Yeah.
19:47I, and this year's Boston and last year's Boston is far better than that Boston team
19:51you beat three years ago.
19:53That I think is part of it.
19:54And I was just looking at the Dallas and Phoenix game seven and Luca went for 35 and 11 and
19:59Spencer Dinwiddie 30 off the bench as Dallas took Phoenix behind the woodshed.
20:05And so, yeah, that was, I think a big break because the Phoenix team for golden state
20:09would have been a tougher matchup than Dallas.
20:10Well, that was last year.
20:12I'm talking about three years ago.
20:13You're talking about that one.
20:14Okay.
20:15Yeah.
20:16Spencer Dinwiddie had 30 in game seven and they put Phoenix to sleep.
20:19I would argue that a, was that round one?
20:21It was round two.
20:22Round two.
20:23So a Phoenix team that won 60 something games.
20:2664.
20:27Has a game seven at home in round two.
20:31Yep.
20:32And that's their effort.
20:33They got boat race.
20:34Yeah.
20:35You want to talk about a team that's not ready?
20:38Well, remind me a little bit.
20:39That's a joke of a performance.
20:40Well, it's kind of what Minnesota did to Denver two years ago when they were down at half
20:44by 20 and they won by 20.
20:47I mean, it was crazy and they never panicked in that game.
20:53They must've known they were better.
20:54Well, I think the biggest obstacle for the Warriors is what Dunleavy said to you guys
20:57last week, which was playoff basketball starts now.
21:01It actually doesn't start for another two months.
21:04Like if you're playing playoff basketball for two months and then you got to play another
21:08two months of playoff basketball and your three best players are going to be 37, 35
21:14and 34, I just think it's going to be really hard for all three of those guys to number
21:19one, remain healthy and number two, to be at a hundred percent when you need them the
21:22most.
21:23So, you know, to your point, when you're 41 and 14, you can, even if Curry hadn't gotten
21:28hurt, you can kind of put it in cruise control.
21:30Yup.
21:31Yup.
21:32And it's going to be harder for this team to do that.
21:33So them getting coming back is going to help, but it's still going to be difficult.
21:37Like what do you guys think about this?
21:38If I just asked you, like, cause we're sitting here talking about championship, they're game
21:42over 500.
21:43Like, do you think this team's getting at least a six, are they getting a top six seed?
21:48How do we feel?
21:49Okay.
21:50I think there's seven.
21:51You think they're going to get seven?
21:52Yeah.
21:53Okay.
21:54What do you think, Ab?
21:55I think seven's the most realistic.
21:56Dibs, you think they're getting the top six seed?
21:58No, probably not.
21:59As I mentioned to you last week, the 20 year historical average in the West is 45 to 48
22:05wins.
22:06So if you can't get to 45, you historically don't have a real shot.
22:10This year I do think that 46 or 47 gets it done, but you start to do the math on what
22:15that would mean from here on out.
22:17What is it, like 20 and eight or 20 and seven or something like that?
22:21Yep.
22:22And so, I mean, can they go on that kind of a run?
22:25They could and they might, but I think Evan, you made the best counterpoint right there,
22:29which is if you want to get to a six seed and right now you're 28 and 27.
22:34So if you need to get to 48, that is 20 more wins in 27 games.
22:41So that's going to take a lot of effort from older guys.
22:45Whereas when they were 41 and 14, Steph got hurt fine.
22:48He took a month off, but even if he didn't get hurt, you could have given him a lot of
22:53time off.
22:54You had the cushion.
22:55You've got no buffer this year.
22:56So like I'll buy all of that and like, yes, I do think that they're going to be at least
23:01the seven.
23:02I think they can get the seven, but like, so then we take that and we think there's
23:07a path to a title.
23:09We've never thought about a basketball team before.
23:12Even when Jimmy did it in Miami, we were stunned by it.
23:18But keep in mind, if they get to seven, that means they probably won 46 or 47 games.
23:24That means they played really well.
23:25Right.
23:26So it'll mean like, they're going to be able to say with Jimmy Butler, we're 24 and 12
23:31or something.
23:32You know, they're three and one.
23:33Now they're going to, you know, something like that.
23:35And then they can claim to be a dangerous team in the postseason.
23:40They do have by metrics, one of the easiest schedules in the NBA left.
23:47So I do think they're going to put together a good record and it may or may not be because
23:52they're playing amazing basketball.
23:55It might be because they're playing the Jazz and the Pelicans.
23:58True.
23:59Well, and last year, Dallas was a five and they made the finals the year before Jimmy
24:03in Miami.
24:05They were an eight.
24:06The Warriors were a three.
24:07The Bucks were a three.
24:08The Heat made the finals.
24:09They were a five.
24:10So in this modern NBA, you have to go back to 2016, the last time it was one versus one
24:16Cavaliers over the Warriors in the famous Draymond Green groin punch series.
24:22Gotcha.
24:23Well, certainly a lot to talk about gentlemen.
24:26And I know you will be talking about it in the next four hours and you know where you'll
24:30be talking about it on 95.7 The Game.