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BTNvsBB X B B Line in a SRP

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Transcript
Transcript
00:00what's up guys it's doo-doo poker here back for another video today we're going to be talking
00:09about the button versus big blind single raise pot check bet bet line as the button okay theory
00:17does some really interesting things and i'm going to show you a hand and how we can use mda to
00:24outperform the solver so we raise up we're on the button we raise up 2.5x big blind calls
00:33let's say the board is nine of spades six of clubs five of diamonds okay so we want to size
00:41the check slight donking spot which is interesting for a big blind but that's not what this video is
00:45about so let's say we have a hand like ace four okay let's say we have ace four now you can bet
00:54or you can check we decide to check okay this is the check bet bet line now the turn is a queen of
01:00hearts okay now the big blind checks okay now theory we know from theory let's look at theory
01:13do you think population is over probing or under probing in this spot because remember population
01:22almost never plays like gto well let's look at the data we know from the data
01:27that gto is between 30 and 40 percent depending on sizing now the weaker the reg the more they probe
01:37even good regs are probing on the high side right so we know they over probe okay so they over probe
01:45on the turn so when they check
01:48and we bet let's say we bet uh 75 percent pot okay let's say we have ace four we decide to bet here
01:59let's look at the data for check check fold do you think they over fold or under fold
02:08once they check twice here's the data they're over folding
02:15by five to ten percent depending on sizing okay so we bet 75 so around 70 they're over folding five
02:26to ten percent okay so we know there's an over fold on the turn and there's also an over probe on the
02:32turn okay so we have ace four remember so he decides to call okay now the river is a queen of spades
02:39now if you're the button here you check back flop you bet 75 on the turn
02:48and big blind checks to you if we're the button we get a jamming range for almost 7x pot with some
02:59of our range okay now no one does this no one does this okay but if you look at the solver
03:06some of our range wants to be all in for almost 7x pot another part of our range wants to bet 3x pot
03:15and a huge huge part of our range wants to bet 1.5x pot okay so
03:22do you think players who check check call turn i'm talking about big blind here and then check river
03:34do you think they over fold under fold or play mdf first these sizings well let's say we had ace four
03:43okay let's say we have ace four and we know we want to put 9x 6x 5x any non-queen
03:55hand so non-trips in a zero ev spot do you think they over fold or under fold okay so we bet
04:03150 over bet 150 150 pot now when we look at the solver we see 9x is zero ev 6x 5x right but all
04:18queen x is calling of course right if we wanted to put the queen x in a zero ev spot what do we do
04:26we jam we jam we jam all in now all these become zero ev right so we have two different targets
04:40the 150 is dedicated to the 6x the 5x the 9x the jam is dedicated to the non-boats non-queen x boats
04:51or queen x non-boats i should say okay so let's go to mda let's go back let's go back to button okay
04:58so we know let's say we use the 150 sizing okay so get mda for this this is the regs check check call
05:09now in this data it's 50 i bet 75 so it's slightly different but it gives you an idea okay so how do
05:16we interpret this data okay well you need to know what is the alpha the alpha is the folding frequency
05:24okay so let's say i bet 150 right so we have 150 here we know they fold to 150 the sample's good over
05:33a thousand they we know they fold 68 of the time how often should they be folding in gto land well what
05:41you do is you go it's risk divided by risk plus reward okay so we're risking 150 the reward is 250
05:55so they're supposed to fold 60 of the time but we know they fold 68 so there's an over fold
06:04let's say we wanted to go 280 which is close to 3x pot right now not great samples because no one
06:10no one does this right population does not know this spot well enough to start doing 3x pots on the
06:16river but let's say we wanted to go 280 now 280 divided by 380 is 73.7 percent but they're folding 88
06:30so you want to over bluff this spot with 3x pot with 1.5x pot and if it goes on the same trend with
06:43almost 7x pot so you want to turn your ace 4 you always want to bluff it you don't want to check it
06:53because there's a huge over fold huge discrepancies in mda and mdf and remember minimum defense frequency
07:02is 1 minus alpha so the minimum defense frequency since we know 150 alpha is 60 what's 1 minus 60
07:1440 percent so the mdf would be 40 percent here okay so you want to take all your mixed hands and you want
07:23to put them in the bet 150 or the bet 300 line or sometimes jamming okay so we want to over bluff this
07:30spot this is important so we over bluff this spot if we do get called now we switch to value okay and
07:39the lower the one one soft flop the more we bluff all right so i thought this was a cool hand that
07:44illustrates when theory and mda can combine to outperform what the solver is showing all right guys
07:54thanks for checking out the video and i'll see you in the next one