Antisipasi Kebijakan Suku Bunga Bank Sentral AS
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (13/12/2023) dengan Tema Antisipasi Kebijakan Suku Bunga Bank Sentral AS".
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00:00 Next, Pomiersa, this is the economic agenda for December 13, 2023.
00:05 There is growth in China's cumulative debt year-on-year,
00:08 the price of South Korean import exports year-on-year, and in November.
00:11 Then from the United States, as we know, Pomiersa has released the
00:15 IHP price index, United States month-on-November and year-on-year,
00:19 the Federal Reserve, United States month-on-November,
00:22 and the US oil inventory.
00:24 From the Pomiersa's MI10 agenda, you can see on the screen,
00:28 the PPP will be RUPS, BUKK RUPS, DOIT also RUPS,
00:32 GMTD RUPS, BABP KUM, HMETD, TEBIKX Dividend Tunai Interim,
00:37 BEFIN KUM Dividend Tunai, and GEMS KUM Dividend Tunai.
00:41 An update from the Asian exchange, Pomiersa,
00:44 you can see the full details on the opening screen this morning.
00:47 Is it a tendency to follow the WSB,
00:50 which once broke the highest record, or is it the opposite of Pomiersa?
00:55 Nikkei, Pomiersa, is expected to grow 0.73%,
00:58 Sutter Times, 0.13%,
01:01 Kospi, Pomiersa, is expected to weaken 0.42%,
01:05 and there is Hang Seng, which is expected to grow 1.07%.
01:09 This morning, the Asian stock exchange is expected to experience a strong impact,
01:16 except for Kospi, Pomiersa.
01:18 Kospi, South Korea, was down 0.42%
01:23 a few days ago after we captured Pomiersa.
01:26 Nikkei, Japan, is still up 0.73%,
01:29 Sutter Times, Pomiersa, is still strong at 0.13%,
01:33 and there is Hang Seng, Pomiersa, which is experiencing a strength of 1.07%.
01:39 Here is Pomiersa.
01:45 That's it for the Asian exchange.
01:47 Will the IHSG also follow Pomiersa?
01:50 Many people are saying that there is a chance for IHSG to test the level 7200.
01:58 We will discuss this this morning with Mas Sandika Ciptelabora,
02:01 PTT Kanakahita Solvera analyst.
02:03 Mas Sandika, good morning.
02:05 Hello, good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
02:07 Thank you for your time, Mas Sandika.
02:09 There are a lot of sentiments, starting from the domestic market.
02:12 There is COVID-19, which is experiencing an increase in Jakarta's GDP,
02:17 and the debate of the presidential candidate from the US yesterday
02:22 seems to be positive because the US economy reached its highest level in 2023,
02:29 the highest level in 2023, along with the inflation rate.
02:34 Who is the first to be the most concerned?
02:38 From the market players, Mas Sandika.
02:41 Okay, Mrs. Prisa. In our opinion, the most impactful for the global market and IHSG at the moment
02:49 is the decline in inflation in the United States.
02:52 And indeed, in the morning, the US inflation fell back to 3.1%,
03:00 even though it fell slightly from the previous month, October 2023, to 3.2%.
03:06 This has an impact, the Fed will hold the flower market.
03:12 Even if the flower market has entered the range of 2%,
03:18 the Fed will also have the potential to lower the flower market,
03:22 which is of course a positive sentiment for the global index movement.
03:27 Okay, so this is the policy or meeting of the Fed in 2023,
03:33 which means tomorrow, the release is Thursday in West Indonesia.
03:39 It is certain that the consensus will be that it will definitely remain,
03:43 it will not go up and it will not go down.
03:45 That's right, Mrs. Prisa. The biggest opportunity is that the flower market of the Fed itself is still stagnant.
03:52 The flower market is still stagnant, but there is speculation that
03:57 it was estimated that there would be a decline in the flower market in March.
04:01 If this December is still, there is a possibility that there will be a decline in March,
04:04 but it seems to be shifting back to May.
04:07 Why is that? Is there a shift?
04:09 Are there data that is considered to be, it seems that it does not support,
04:12 for March 2024 there will be a decline?
04:14 Okay, if I look at it, I still see data from inflation,
04:20 which still has a gap of about 1.1%.
04:24 And it should be if the Fed itself has seen that inflation has entered their target,
04:32 the flower market will be dropped immediately.
04:36 Okay, but your consensus or your expectations,
04:41 there will probably be a decline in March or May next year.
04:45 In my opinion, the longest the flower market of the Fed will go down in the second semester of 2023.
04:52 Second semester, it means it will go down again?
04:55 Yes, the longest.
04:57 Okay, Mr. Sandika, Wall Street, please correct me if there is a mistake,
05:01 the indexes on Wall Street are records, but the record is not a long-term record,
05:06 the record is in 2023, except for the European exchange, if I'm not mistaken,
05:10 AC40, Dax German is the highest record in the world.
05:16 Will the opportunity for the Indonesian capital market also test the highest record in 2023?
05:24 Yesterday it had a chance to test 7200, but there was another cooling down.
05:28 Okay, if we look at it, the global index movement is moving up.
05:35 And if we look at the all-time high of IHSG, it's still at level 7306.
05:42 If we look at the foreign sentiment, the global index has already printed ATH,
05:50 especially in Europe, there is an opportunity for IHSG to print ATH,
05:56 but if I look at it, it won't happen at the end of this month.
06:01 If I look at it, it will happen in the first semester of 2024 for IHSG.
06:07 IHSG will be the highest level of strength in the long run, is that what you mean, Mr. Sandika?
06:14 Yes, there will be an opportunity.
06:17 In the future, but if the highest level is 2023, maybe above 7200, is it still possible?
06:23 Or just like this, from what we see, Mr. Sandika, in 2023, how high will IHSG close?
06:30 If I look at it, IHSG has already printed 7200, and if I look at it, there will be a chance for a decline in the short term.
06:40 It will move to 6900 to 6920, because there will be a profit taking.
06:50 Okay, especially as the New Year's holiday is approaching, maybe the window dressing has already happened?
06:55 Yes, you can say that, because it has been aggressive since November 1.
07:03 That's right, the increase is also quite significant.
07:06 In the last month, IHSG has increased by 2.4 percent.
07:10 My prediction is that there will be a profit taking, according to Mr. Sandika.
07:13 [Music]
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