MLB Best Bets: Critical Weekend with Key Games & Playoff Impacts
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00:00Yes, a college football Friday and a football Friday live right
00:07here on the early line on SportsGrid, but still we enter
00:11the final month of the regular season in MLB. It's a holiday
00:15weekend and a full slate on this Friday around the bigs. We
00:19will have games on Labor Day Monday. You've got some
00:22extended sets that will continue throughout this
00:26weekend. DRS, one of the marquee matchups this week, of
00:28course at the bank in Philadelphia. The Phil's win
00:32game number one against Atlanta of this four game weekend set
00:35five to four as they come back from down four nothing
00:39entering the home half of the sixth. Brandon Marsh, three-run
00:42home run. Nick Castellanos, a two-run shot in the seventh.
00:46That was the difference. Today, it's Ranger Suarez against
00:50Reynaldo Lopez, Philadelphia, a minus 138 home money line
00:54favorite. What do you like in game number two? I think the
00:57Phillies can win this game again. I took the Phillies
00:59yesterday to minus 150 price and it was like, oh boy, it
01:01looked like an idiot here early on, but end up getting the win
01:04in that baseball game. Make me look a little bit smarter, but
01:06let's flip it over to today because it's always about the
01:08starting pitching matchups. I think we got a pretty good one
01:11here. You got Ranger Suarez on the mound here for the
01:12Philadelphia Phillies. Hasn't had much action over the past
01:1530 days because that IL stint, but his return back to Major
01:18League Baseball was good. His season 500 batters that he's
01:21faced is very good. ISO power number 116 weighted on base
01:25percentage 273. They all check out against an offense
01:28technically with Atlanta. That isn't very good, but also
01:30Reynaldo Lopez on the other side. His last 60 days, he has
01:33had some injury issues to worry about 36 and a third innings
01:37pitch for the stellar ERA at 2.72. This is a playoff type
01:40atmosphere down here at the bank tonight and I expected to go
01:43that route. Do I think the Phillies win? Yes, but I don't
01:46think we see nine runs in this game. Ben, I'm more apt to take
01:49the under today between these two ball clubs. We did see nine
01:53runs yesterday, slightly working its way over a total of
01:56eight and a half. The long ball was king. Matt Olsen hit two
02:00for Atlanta. He's recorded an RBI in six consecutive games
02:04for the Braves 12 in that span and of course the three run shot
02:08off the bat of Brandon Marsh and a two run home run for Nick
02:11Castellanos Ranger Suarez to start this year was sensational
02:16at the end of May. Even after suffering his first loss in
02:20what was his worst outing at the time, he was nine and one
02:23with a 175 ERA. Not terrible in the month of June, but then the
02:28wheels started to fall off just a little bit. He did return last
02:33week against the Royals on Saturday, five innings of work,
02:36only 72 pitches, just four base knocks given up and a single
02:40earned run to record the win. That's what they want out of
02:43Suarez as we get close to September and of course into
02:48October. Between these two teams, 10 games played this
02:51year. Atlanta has won six. Philadelphia yesterday now with
02:55four victories. The Phil's maintain a six game lead for
02:59the top spot in the National League East. Now we go late
03:02night to Arizona out in the desert. What a matchup we have
03:06between the Dodgers and the D-backs. It's Zach Gallin on
03:09one side for Arizona. It's Clayton Kershaw on the other
03:12for LA. Minus 134 is the money line price in favor of the
03:18Dodgers. Eight and a half is that total. Kershaw last year
03:22made one playoff start for LA, got absolutely rocked by these
03:27D-backs, hoping for better tonight in downtown Phoenix.
03:31You're probably just looking at this line saying, okay, it's
03:34Kershaw, that named pitcher out there. The Dodgers technically
03:36a better team, but I don't know if the Dodgers can run up that
03:39starting lineup they did yesterday and expect to get a
03:41victory in Arizona today against Zach Gallin. Also keep
03:44in mind, Zach Gallin not having a great 60 days here in Major
03:47League Baseball. He used to be much more dominant in the past.
03:50We look at his last 60 days, 52 and a third innings pitched at
03:534.64 ERA, and that equates to an XFIP of 4.37. Not the greatest
03:58in the world, but if we're all looking at that Dodgers lineup,
04:01the anticipated lineup tonight does look much better, Ben,
04:04than it did last night. Otani, Betts, Freeman, Hernandez,
04:06Lux, Smith, Muncie, Edmond, and Rojas as opposed to having Tommy
04:10Edmond in your cleanup spot. He drops to his rightful place in
04:14the eighth hole tonight, and that's what we're anticipating
04:16that should help. Zach Gallin does have some pretty clean
04:18splits, especially against right-handed fighters over the
04:21past 30 days. His last 50 batters he's faced on the right
04:24side, Ben, 0-64 ISO and a 2-60 weighted on base percentage,
04:28but Zach Gallin is going to be the key to this game. I think
04:31he has a good performance. I would be willing, based on that
04:34starting lineup, if with that plus 106, plus 110, let's just
04:37say, by the time we get to game time, I think might be in the
04:39fold for Arizona. Kershaw, solid last 30 days. Let's see
04:42if he can continue it, but I always like the nod to home
04:45teams here. I'll go with the D-backs as a slight dog price
04:48tonight where Gallin gets the best of Clayton Kershaw. DRS,
04:52it's not a surprise that a pitcher is better at home than
04:55he is away from his home ballpark, but that's really been
04:59the story for Zach Gallin the last two years. Six and three
05:02with a 3-1-9 ERA in Phoenix this year. Last year, even more
05:07drastic. Away from home, had a losing record in an ERA above
05:11a 4-4. At home, he was 12-3 with a 2-4-7 ERA. Clayton
05:17Kershaw's first three starts in August. Two earned runs given
05:21up in all three combined. Not great in his last one. Did
05:25allow five earned, and the Dodgers suffered a loss. LA
05:29enters this weekend, though, with a cushion in the National
05:32League West, despite the D-backs being red hot since the
05:34All-Star break. The Dodgers up by four games over Arizona. The
05:38Diamondbacks 27-10 since the All-Star break. San Diego
05:42trails LA by five games. Arizona by a game for the top
05:47wild-card position in the National League. The Padres,
05:50though, 26-11 since the All-Star break, despite dropping
05:55two consecutive games in St. Louis against the Cardinals to
05:58end out a four-game midweek set. Tonight, they continue the
06:02road trip at the Trop in Tampa, with a raise, a home
06:05favorite at minus 132. Seven and a half is the total. What do
06:09you like? Better pedigree pitcher on the mound is going
06:12to be coming from Tampa Bay side, but that doesn't really
06:14equate to victories when your offense can only give you
06:16basically two to three a night are the expectations for the
06:19Tampa Bay Rays. You take a look at Martin Perez, the crafty
06:22lefty that's been around the league for quite some time.
06:24He's been very good against left-handed batters, struggles
06:27a little bit with righties, but let's take a look at that
06:29lineup against left-handed pitching. Diaz, average
06:33numbers here as the leadoff spot. Only 14 at-bats he's had
06:35against left-handed pitching over the past month. Brandon
06:38Lau, 250 iso power number, but a low weighted on base
06:40percentage. Dylan Carlson in the middle of that lineup's got
06:4320 at-bats. He's been decent, but outside of those two
06:45players, everybody else really struggles with left-handed
06:49pitching here, and that's going to be the key indicator
06:51tonight. If we flip it over to San Diego and how they should
06:53fare at the plate, well, we're expecting much better
06:56conditions for them than we're just talking about Tampa Bay.
06:58Tosh Bradley is decent, but get this, Ben, his last 119
07:01batters he's faced, a combined iso of 286, and a weighted on
07:04base percentage of 408. I trust the Padres way more tonight
07:08than I do the Tampa Bay Rays. And we will continue to fly
07:12around this Friday in MLB in just a moment. Games that will
07:18have an impact on the postseason standings this
07:20weekend, all weekend long up next. Donny, we talked about it
07:24in hour one, looking back at Thursday in MLB. The Mets take
07:28a series victory in Arizona against the Red Hot D-backs.
07:31That says something. The Mets trying to stay in line in the
07:35National League wildcard chase, but still trail Atlanta for
07:38that last spot by three games. These are the series that you
07:42need to not only win, but probably sweep when you're
07:45playing the Chicago White Sox. The Mets on the road in the
07:48south side today as greater than a $2 favorite over under
07:53is nine. Jonathan Cannon gets the start for Chicago. What's
07:56your thing about him? He's more like Cannon Fodder right
07:59now. Should the Mets offense explode tonight in Chicago?
08:02Yeah, his middle name is Cannon. His last name is
08:04Fodder. Jonathan Cannon Fodder at this point because he
08:07doesn't really get too many baseball players out,
08:09particularly as a right-handed pitcher struggling, Ben, over
08:12the past 30 days with right-handed batters. Now, you
08:14take a look at some of the right-handed batters last
08:15night. Who went yard? Pete Alonzo. Can he stay hot? Maybe,
08:18but it doesn't have great numbers over the past month
08:21against right-handed pitching, but you know who does? Mark
08:23Dientos, due to be up in that two-hole tonight, 75 at-bats.
08:26Bennett gets right into pitching over the past 30 days,
08:28a 338 iso power number, and a weighted on base percentage of
08:32389. But having said that, you got a high number here for
08:36Tyler McGill that's going to be on the mound. Now, granted, he
08:39hasn't had much work over the past 30 days, but on the season,
08:43struggles with lefties, struggles with righties, his
08:45last nine at-bats, a 250 iso, 458 weighted on base
08:49percentage. If you are going to bet this game, I recommend
08:52probably not taking a side, even though the Mets probably
08:54still should win going away because we understand that
08:56Chicago White Sox aren't trying to win. But if I'm going to
08:59take RBI props, told you Dientos on the Mets side, Andrew
09:01Benatendi in the middle of that lineup, 63 at-bats, Bennett
09:04gets right into pitching the past month, a 407 iso, and a
09:08weighted on base percentage of 459. You can still make some
09:11money on these bad baseball teams. I'd look at those two
09:14guys tonight for some RBI opportunities with the wind
09:16blowing out and decent temperatures in Chicago. The
09:19Mets have a difficult schedule down this home stretch as we
09:23enter September. A three-game set this weekend in the Windy
09:26City. You need at least two, and again, probably all three.
09:30Of course, the Braves taking on the Phils for all three games
09:35this weekend in that four-game set. Another marquee four-game
09:38set this weekend in Houston. The Astros take game number one,
09:426-3 against KC. Bad loss for the Royals. We're up entering
09:46the eighth. A couple of defensive blows allowed Houston
09:49to take advantage, and Vinny Pasquantino exiting the game
09:53early with an injury. And now you turn to Frambois Valdez
09:57against Seth Lugo. Earlier in the year, these—actually,
10:00earlier in the year, it was Seth Lugo who couldn't miss, and
10:02Valdez was a little bit slow to start. Now it's Valdez who
10:05can't miss and keeps winning games, and Lugo who is
10:09struggling. What gives tonight in H-Town? I'll tell you what
10:12gives here. Frambois Valdez on the mound, and nothing really
10:15gives too much against him. You take a look at his last 30
10:17days. Absolutely filthy stellar. How about a strikeout
10:20rate of 34 percent? How about if you're a left-handed batter
10:24going up against him? That strikeout rate goes up to 41
10:27percent. His ISO against 096, weighted on-base percentage
10:31against 208. And you say, oh, he's having a good 30 days.
10:33Look at his season in totality, Ben. 574 batters that he's
10:37facing, ISO of 104, and a weighted on-base percentage of
10:40286. Those are the games that you get upset with for Kansas
10:43City. He should have won yesterday. Now you got the ace
10:45on the mound for the opposite team. That makes it harder. And
10:48Seth Lugo coming into this game, struggling over the past
10:5130 days with left-handed batters. Seth Lugo is much
10:54better to start the season than he is right now. But if you're
10:57looking for an RBI perspective, look no further than Alvarez
11:00there. A 381 ISO power number against right-handed pitching
11:03over the past 30 days with a weighted on-base percentage
11:06close to 500. It's going to be a tough hill to climb tonight
11:10for Kansas City if they want to get a victory here. It wasn't
11:13Fromber's fault last Saturday against the O's. Five and two
11:17thirds gave up three earned runs, struck out eight against
11:21the O's, but he did record his first loss. And it was also a
11:24loss for Houston, stabbing a 10-game win streak for the
11:28Strohs when Valdez got a start in which he won eight of those
11:33ten. Since the month of July, Lugo has made nine starts. He
11:37has recorded a decision in all nine. He has lost seven of the
11:42nine. At the end of June, he was 11-2 with a 2-1-7 ERA. Now we
11:48go to Anaheim tonight. The Angels stabbing a seven-game
11:51skid yesterday, but a pretty hefty home underdog against the
11:55Mariners as they start this weekend series. Houston wins a
11:59game they probably should not have yesterday, much to the
12:02chagrin of the M's. Now a four-game lead for Houston in
12:06the division. Can Seattle make up some ground this weekend in
12:09Southern California? You should be able to. And by the
12:12way, George Kirby, not looking that great over the past 30
12:14days here, but if we take that 60-day look in totality, 3.7
12:18ERA, which isn't bad at X-Fit, but 3.66. And not much to know
12:22about Al Degeary on the mound tonight for the Angels. You're
12:25at that type of a season where they're just throwing random
12:27warm bodies up there to try to get guys out. Seattle's a
12:30massive favorite. Would I lay it? Probably not. But should
12:33they win? Absolutely.