This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 04/12/2024. Low pressure brings wet and windy weather on Friday into Saturday. Once this clears, high pressure builds. Bringing you this 10 day s weather forecast is Honor Criswick.
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00:00Hello there. Welcome to this week's 10-day trend. We've got plenty of wet and windy weather
00:05on its way over the next few days with multiple Met Office warnings in force. I'm not going
00:10to go into those now, but for more details you can stay updated on our website. What
00:15I am going to do is go into the details of the weather over the next few days and also
00:19talk a little bit about the uncertainty that we're facing too. So to start then taking
00:24a look at the bigger picture, here we are on Wednesday, slight ridge of high pressure
00:28which gave many of us some fine conditions to start the day, but low pressure to the
00:33north-west sweeping in some outbreaks of rain, this heavy at times and a squeeze in the
00:37isobars too, so some blustery weather to end on Wednesday and as we head into Thursday.
00:42A brief drier spell and then further rain as we head into Thursday too. This could be
00:47heavy at times. And then it's all eyes on this area of low pressure currently building
00:53as we speak out into the Atlantic. And this is where this uncertainty lies and this is
00:58what's going to cause potentially some disruption as we head into the weekend as it brings in
01:03some strong winds, some heavy outbreaks of rain and it's all being fuelled by this very
01:08strong jet pushing it north-eastwards towards the UK as we head into Friday and it moves
01:14its way eastwards as we head into the weekend. So a chance of some disruptive weather on
01:19Friday and Saturday potentially into Sunday as well. Some heavy outbreaks of rain as it
01:25sweeps in some frontal systems and also another good squeeze in the isobars, so some strong
01:29winds at times too. Now there has been some uncertainty earlier in the week with regards
01:35to its exact location of the centre of this low. This model at the moment is currently
01:39showing the centre of the low just to the north of the jet, but there have also been
01:43some models that have shown the low just to the south of the jet. So at the moment it
01:48looks like it's going to be on the northern flank of the jet, so on the colder side of
01:53the jet and this could cause some rapid deepening as it moves towards the UK. But some models
01:58showing it just to the south, so on the warmer side of the jet and does mean it could skirt
02:04this heavy rain and these strong winds slightly further south. So that's why we are looking
02:09at some uncertainty in the detail as we head into the weekend. And there's various different
02:15scenarios that we are looking at depending on the track and exact location of that low
02:20pressure. So to start off with I've got a few different scenarios to show you. So this
02:25is scenario A, this shows the low sweeping just across the south and across central parts
02:31of the UK with a 50% chance that this is the kind of story that we're looking at as we
02:36head into Friday and Saturday. So this is going to bring in some heavy spells of rain
02:42potentially in some areas we could see between 15 to 25 millimetres. But in some spots, particularly
02:48in the west, we could see around 40 millimetres or more in some places. And it's also going
02:54to bring in some strong winds, particularly across the southeast. So East Anglia, for
02:58example, could see a chance of gales. And to the north of this still fairly chilly and
03:04could bring in some snow across higher ground. Then we have scenario B, you can see that
03:10the area of low pressure slightly shifted to the north. So that means the basis of the
03:15stronger winds and the heaviest rainfall once again changing of location that the main areas
03:21are going to be slightly further north. So this once again could bring some heavy outbreaks
03:24of rain between 20, 30 millimetres. But in some places, once again, mainly in the west
03:29could see 50 or more millimetres of rain. So potentially could see some quite disruptive
03:35rainfall as we head into the weekend, but also once again, some very strong winds, particularly
03:39across eastern areas as that low continues to deepen as it moves out into the North Sea.
03:46Another scenario we could also face is scenario C, and that moves the low pressure system
03:50much further to the south. So that's bringing in strong winds, some heavy rain once again
03:55across parts of the south, whereas to the north, not seeing quite as much disruptive
04:00weather here. But once again, we could see some hill snow across higher ground. Now,
04:03if the low does track to the south, we could see some strong winds, but it's not going
04:08to be quite gale force or severe gales as there could be according to scenario A or
04:14scenario B. Scenario C bringing in some strong winds across parts of the south and also some
04:20heavy outbreaks of rain between 10 to 20 millimetres, perhaps 20 to 30 in some spots, but not being
04:25quite as disruptive and any of the more hazardous weather generally becoming confined to the
04:29far south. So at the moment, as it stands, it generally looks like scenario A is the
04:34most likely solution. But as I say, a few different models telling us a few slightly
04:39different stories. And it really depends on where that low pressure sits as the kind of
04:44details in the weather that we could see as we head into Friday and Saturday. And one
04:49of them is the heaviest, the most amount of rainfall that we could see over the coming
04:55days. So here's our Met Office model to start off with our global model. And you can see
05:00by these slightly more red colours, this is indicating where the higher totals of rainfall
05:05are generally going to be located. So you can see it's picking up Northern Ireland,
05:09parts of Wales, parts of Northern England and Southern Scotland. So if that area of
05:14low pressure is slightly to the north, this is where the heaviest rainfall totals are
05:19likely to be. However, once again, different models are telling us slightly different things.
05:25So this is our European model and you can see those redder colours, those slightly higher
05:30totals are generally more confined across central areas. Once again, picking out parts
05:35of Wales and East Anglia, parts of Central England too. That's looking like where the
05:39European model wants to sit the slightly higher rainfall totals here. And then we also have
05:45GFS, the America model. Once again, it's got those higher totals sitting slightly further
05:50north across Northern Ireland, parts of Northern England, perhaps just some higher totals across
05:55parts of Wales too. So it is really dependent on whereabouts the centre of that low sits,
06:00where we're going to see the higher rainfall totals and perhaps potentially some more disruption
06:06here, particularly as we did have some flooding issues as a result of Storm Boris. So this
06:10could once again exacerbate those issues as we head into the weekend. Here are the rolling
06:16rainfall totals from Friday into Saturday. And I've just popped this here just to show
06:21that most of us are going to see some rain into Friday and Saturday. As I say, if that
06:25low is situated slightly further south, then this is going to look quite different. But
06:30it's just to show that on Friday and Saturday, we're likely to see some disruptive weather,
06:34including heavy rainfall. And not only heavy rainfall, but also going to see some particularly
06:39strong winds. This is the area of low pressure as we head into Friday, sweeping its way eastwards
06:45across the country. And we can see already by these brighter pink colours, most areas
06:49are going to see some strong winds at times, particularly around coasts. So we can see
06:54here the darker purple showing those slightly higher wind gusts in miles per hour, mainly
07:00around the Irish Sea. So northwestern parts of Wales, western parts of northern England
07:05could see some particularly strong winds. So a chance of gales, perhaps some severe
07:08gales at times as that low pressure moves its way eastwards. And as I say, there are
07:13Met Office warnings out in force for strong winds too. So a chance that we could see wind
07:18speeds between 60 and 70 miles per hour, may even see a localised 80 miles per hour
07:24in particularly exposed spots. And we're likely to see quite gusty weather even once this
07:29low moves through. So even on Sunday, seeing some quite brisk winds, particularly around
07:33coastal areas as well. So more details for the weekend then. As I say, there is a chance
07:40that this main area of rain could move depending on what model solution effectively comes true
07:46as we head into the weekend. But likely to see outbreaks of rain by the time we reach
07:51the afternoon into the evening. Most of this rain likely to have cleared away behind it
07:55generally turning brighter. They were likely to see plenty of blustery showers, particularly
08:00around coastal areas and still a fairly cold air mass too. So likely to see any precipitation
08:05falling largely as snow across high ground of Scotland, perhaps even northern England
08:10for a time too. And it is going to be a particularly chilly day. These are the temperatures by
08:14the time we reach the afternoon. Highs of 9 to 10 Celsius in the south, but across the
08:19north, sorry, highs between 5 to 7 Celsius. But those brisk winds still continuing and
08:26that is going to add on to the wind chill. So this is more likely what those temperatures
08:30are actually going to feel like, particularly if you are in any exposed spots. For the second
08:36half of the weekend then as we head into Sunday, generally it's going to be a much brighter
08:41day. Plenty of sunny spells, particularly in western areas where they will catch the
08:44bulk of the rain as that low pressure moves through. But we can see, particularly along
08:48those north sea coasts, still plenty of blustery showers moving through. These could be heavy
08:52at times. You may even hear the odd rumble of thunder and likely still falling as snow
08:57across high ground too. But in those showers there should be plenty of brighter spells,
09:01particularly in inland areas. Although a few showers could feed in towards inland areas
09:06at times too. But mostly they look like they are going to be confined to coastal areas.
09:11Once again, temperatures fairly similar. Highs between 8 to 9 Celsius across the south, 5
09:17to 6 Celsius across parts of Scotland, particularly north east Scotland. But once again those
09:22brisk northerly winds really taking the edge off the temperatures. So this is more like
09:26what they are really going to feel like between 3 to 4 Celsius. So it is going to be a chilly
09:31weekend. More likely to see more dry weather as we head into Sunday. But still can't rule
09:36out a chance of a few showers, particularly around coastal areas. So there's the detail
09:42as we head into the weekend. So what about next week? Well, I'm pleased to tell you it
09:46looks like we're looking at a more settled spell of weather. We've got high pressure
09:49building out into the Atlantic. That's moving its way over towards the country as we head
09:54into the new working week. So it looks like it is going to be largely settled by the time
09:59we reach Monday. So potentially some more drier weather and still plenty of sunny spells
10:04to go around. Still can't rule out showers though, particularly around eastern coasts.
10:08And as we head from Monday night into Tuesday, plenty of clear skies means it is going to
10:12be turning cold, likely to see some frost in places and we may even see some fog patches
10:18too. And it's coming to the time of year as well where that fog struggles to dissipate
10:23during the early hours of the morning. So by Tuesday we could see a quite chilly start,
10:28some frost and perhaps some lingering fog in places. But generally by Tuesday, that
10:31high pressure still dominating. So lots of fine and settled weather still as we head
10:37into Tuesday and similar on Wednesday as well, that high pressure still sticking around.
10:42So largely settled. The only caveat to this is we might just see a few frontal systems
10:47just start to push their way into the outer edge of this high. Now, this might just drag
10:51in a little bit of moisture. So it might just be a slightly cloudier day. It might be that
10:57cloud might be squeezed at times, giving us some rain and drizzle at times too. So
11:01it's not going to be completely settled. But on the whole, there should be plenty of dry
11:05weather around even as we head to the middle part of the week. And on the whole for next
11:10week to start off with, as I say, fairly chilly, quite frosty at times too. May see some lingering
11:15fog as we head into the morning and might just start to turn a little bit cloudier towards
11:19the middle part of the week. And it's not going to be feeling quite as cold as we see
11:23those cloudier skies. That might mean that temperatures struggle. So it's not going to
11:27feel particularly mild, but perhaps less cold as what it will do on the weekend. Now, for
11:34the second half of the week, as I say, we have got high pressure building, generally
11:38meaning that things are going to become more settled. But it is going to be very dependent
11:43on whereabouts that high sits as we head towards the end of the week and to start off the following
11:47weekend too. Here's one of the scenarios from our European model, which has high pressure
11:53generally dominating across the south of the U.K. Now, that will allow some frontal
11:58systems at times to move in from the west. Notice the squeeze in the isobars too. So
12:02it could be quite windy at times. So if that high pressure does sit to the south, we could
12:07see start to see a spell of unsettled weather as we head into the second weekend. Another
12:13scenario, though, potentially we could see is high pressure generally sitting over the
12:18U.K. And that means, once again, those settled conditions are here to stay. As I say, in
12:22the middle part of the week, we could see some frontal systems just edge in. So it doesn't
12:26mean it's going to be completely prolonged sunshine. It might be a bit cloudier at times,
12:30but largely settled as we see that high pressure sitting over the country. Another solution
12:36that we do have is high pressure sitting just to the far northwest of the country and then
12:40low pressure to the southeast. And that means we're going to see more of a northerly flow
12:44of air. So it might be slightly clearer, perhaps showery at times and generally feeling chilly.
12:49So you can see just from these three different scenarios as we head into Saturday, the 14th
12:54of December, it's really dependent on whereabouts that high pressure sits. And that really depends
12:59on what weather that really means. It makes a change as to what weather we could see as
13:04we head into the following weekend. So it's going to be quite an unsettled start, turning
13:09more settled as we head into the new working week. But still a few caveats, as I've mentioned
13:15already. But if you do want more daily updates on the weather, you can subscribe to our YouTube
13:20channel and it's always worth keeping an eye on our website for any warning updates. Otherwise,
13:25that's it from me. Bye bye.