Can Patriots take down Rodgers and the Jets? | Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast
Greg Bedard and Nick Cattles are back with their second episode in as many days as the Patriots prepare to face the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. Tune in for a full preview of the game, including key matchups, storylines to watch, and more.
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SportsTranscript
00:00This is the Gregg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cavins.
00:10We'll get to the Jets game in just a moment, obviously a quick turnaround for all of us,
00:14but first you want to download the prize picks app today, use code CLNS and get 50 bucks
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00:43What time is it?
00:44It's game time.
00:45Well, it's also Gregg Bedard time.
00:46Gregg, let's start with the offensive line injuries, my friend.
00:49So Vidarian low out, Kate and Wallace will start at left tackle, but also you have David
00:56Andrews and Michael Wenu questionable.
00:59How banged up, how bad is this online right now?
01:04Uh, I think it's typical of a, of a short week, Nick.
01:08I think, uh, I'm not overly concerned about Andrews and a when you, um, you know, I, I
01:14think they'll, they'll answer the bell, um, just fine.
01:17But, um, you know, look, it's, it's, it's an issue.
01:21Um, I kind of do like having the, the short game early in the week.
01:27It's probably worse with the matchup with the jets because, you know, right now, I mean,
01:30they do have some injury issues, but you know, the, the guys you expect that could be down
01:36at some point, like a Rogers or a Tyron Smith, like they're still, they're still doing all
01:42right.
01:43But, uh, look, the Patriots offensive line, we all know the issues we've been over them,
01:49um, sort of, you know, hampering this team at this point.
01:53And, uh, you know, the, the Caden Wallace thing left tackle has been the biggest issue.
01:59I mean, you know, could it, I'm not saying that Aaron Lowe's been bad.
02:03He hasn't, he's been serviceable, I guess.
02:07Um, but really how much worse could it be with Kate Caden Wallace?
02:12Um, you know, I don't think it'll be that big of a drop-off.
02:16Um, you know, you do worry about a rookie on the road, nighttime game, um, that type
02:23of thing, but, um, you know, not, not great for sure, but I think they can manage it.
02:32I guess you can look at the silver lining to all of this.
02:34If there is a silver lining and if Wallace goes out there and holds water and doesn't
02:39completely fall apart, you might walk away from tomorrow night saying to yourself, oh,
02:45well, it wasn't that bad.
02:47And maybe they have something in Caden Wallace.
02:49Maybe possibly this guy can be decent at left tackle within the next few weeks.
02:54Uh, defensively, uh, Oh, Shane's M&S was placed on IR today, Greg, uh, the Patriots ended
02:59up signing.
03:01If I get his name wrong, I apologize.
03:03I looked up for pronunciation.
03:04Couldn't find one, but defensive end jammery chroma from, uh, Chicago, Chicago bears practice
03:10squad.
03:12Uh, he's a UDFA.
03:15He started at James Madison and finished at your lovely school of Rutgers.
03:19Uh, any, any thoughts on this guy?
03:22Any thoughts on Zimenez going on?
03:24I are.
03:25Yeah.
03:26The Zimenez thing is a little bit of a disappointment because, um, I do think he had a really good
03:31summer.
03:32Um, I thought that he, he only got a couple of snaps the other day, probably cause he
03:35got hurt, but, um, you know, the few snaps that he played were, were pretty good.
03:41The other day, um, you know, chroma, I don't know much about him, um, you know, good size
03:48in all of that.
03:50Um, you know, the Patriots, this is, uh, you know, we knew when they traded Matthew Jude
03:56on that they were going to be a little bit short.
03:58Um, you know, does it mean more of Keon white on every down on the edge that could very
04:06well be the case.
04:07Um, so I think that's one of the adjustments they could make.
04:10I just think you have less experience now on the edge, you know, you got to sign this
04:14guy who was a UDFA, uh, you just have less experience, like 24 years old.
04:19So you know, it's a, it's a, it's a difficult hand they've got on the edge and we know their
04:24four man pass rush just as not getting home, which is another issue.
04:28And I don't know if this guy's a pass rusher at all.
04:30Uh, so we'll have to see, we'll see if he plays and if he's out there playing or what's
04:35he look like?
04:36All right, let's get into the.
04:37Yeah.
04:38I mean, one thing I want to say about that, first of all, it'd be a shock if he's, if
04:41he plays, um, on Thursday night, I mean, they just signed him today.
04:45Um, that means that they signed him.
04:47He's in the building passes physical and all that.
04:50But, uh, I would be shocked if he plays, he might be suited up.
04:54Maybe.
04:55Um, one thing I did want to mention Nick about the edge, um, of this defense, you know, when
05:01reviewing the defensive film, uh, I was pretty concerned about, especially as the, the later
05:08the game went on their lack of pass rush discipline specifically on the edges.
05:14I thought there were too many times where Gino Smith was just, especially to his right,
05:19which with a right-handed quarterback, you don't want to make it easy for them to roll
05:23out to their right.
05:24You want them to go the other way and have to throw across their body.
05:28And I thought there were too many instances, especially in the fourth quarter and overtime
05:32where, you know, they, they just weren't setting that edge, um, you know, to the right side
05:38of the pocket and, uh, it's incumbent upon them to, to find guys that can do that.
05:43I mean, a lot of times they were running and tackle stunts and, you know, they just, they
05:49just lost their gap integrity, uh, you know, on all that.
05:52And so I'm sure they saw it on film.
05:54I'm sure they doubled down and, and look, they're going up against a guy in
05:58Aaron Rogers this week.
05:59That isn't the Aaron Rogers of the past.
06:01Like he, he does not want to run, um, in the past.
06:05You used to have to worry about that a lot with Aaron Rogers.
06:07And he would pick up a lot of like third downs, you know, just, just on his own.
06:12He really does not want to do that anymore coming off the injury and at his age.
06:17Um, so maybe they can get away with it this week, but you know, they, they are going to
06:21have to, to, to keep an eye on that because it was a struggle late against the Seahawks.
06:26Interesting point, because we've talked about the Marcus Covington and he wants
06:29to be aggressive and I know some thought, Hey, maybe that means he kind of.
06:35Uh, relaxes on the whole discipline, you know, stay, stay, make sure you don't
06:41get too far up field, make sure you're so worried about, you know, setting the edge.
06:45So it's, it's going to be interesting to see if, if there is a quick
06:48correction on some of that, that you just mentioned, Greg, because
06:51you know, the aggressiveness, there's some good, there's some bad to that.
06:54All right, let's get to the, uh, let's stick with the Patriots defense here,
06:57but let's, let's start there.
06:58First of all, Juwan Bentley's out, uh, torn pack conflicting reports.
07:03He might be out the whole season.
07:05He might be out most of the season.
07:06We know he's going to be out against the jets on Thursday night.
07:09Uh, just some of the challenges, Greg, the Patriots face without Bentley out there.
07:15Yeah, you know, for sure.
07:16I mean, first and foremost, we all know Juwan Bentley is one
07:21of the leaders on this team.
07:23Um, he's, he's well-respected.
07:25He's been a captain multiple times on this team.
07:28And, and there's a reason for that.
07:30And I do think, you know, with DeMarcus Covington and all the things he likes
07:34to do, you know, having Juwan Bentley as sort of the brain of the defense in
07:42terms of that, of calls and, you know, making sure guys are lined up, right.
07:46Like, I do think that was an issue against Seattle, you know,
07:48once he went out of the game.
07:50Um, you know, they do have Raekwon McMillan came in for, uh, for
07:57Bentley in against the Seahawks.
08:00You know, it was okay.
08:02Um, it, it, it wasn't great.
08:05Um, Tavai has to take on a lot of probably the interior stuff that, that Bentley did.
08:12They like to have Tavai available to be on the edge.
08:15They probably can't do as much of that now.
08:18Um, he, he's one of those guys similar to Kyle Vannoy who can sort of fill the gaps.
08:22If you're, if you're a little bit light on end, like he can be a
08:25little bit heavier in that game.
08:27Um, you know, but you know, Tavai does a solid job.
08:32We just know he's limited athletically.
08:34McMillan's a better athlete, not quite as disciplined, can blitz.
08:39Um, you know, had some issues in that game and, you know, we're all sort of
08:43waiting for Sione talkie talkie to come off, um, come off pup and, you know,
08:49hopefully he's back sooner rather than later.
08:52I would think that would be the case.
08:53He's got to sit out the first four weeks, but judging what we were able to see of
08:57him when we could see practice, it looked like he was, he was getting there, but
09:01like just not quite ready for the season opener.
09:04So I expect him to come in and probably fill a lot of what Bentley did.
09:08I think that was the idea that he would give them depth there as sort of multiple
09:13linebacker spots.
09:13So I think, you know, he steps in, but I think Nick, the big ramification in all
09:17of this of not having Bentley is that now Kyle Duggar, where's the green dot
09:23communication from the coaches.
09:25This is something that's not new with Kyle Duggar.
09:28He's done it before Mayo on Monday raved about Duggar in that regard
09:35against the Seahawks after watching the film.
09:39You know, I, I don't know if I agree with that.
09:41Um, Nick and, you know, just in general, Kyle Duggar, we, we've talked about him
09:48ad nauseum over the years and, you know, he's still sort of the same player.
09:53You know, he's 28 years old.
09:55He got the contract extension.
09:57We know that he's going to be impactful.
09:58And according to my grading, he through two games, he's the second most impactful
10:04Patriots defender to Keon white Keon white.
10:07I have him for like 13 impactful plays.
10:09And next best is Kyle Duggar at like six and a half.
10:12Um, so we see the impact that Keon white has.
10:15The problem is, is that Kyle Duggar also leads the team in minus place.
10:20And, you know, including, you know, in the opener, you had the Geseke drop, um,
10:27Geseke, you know, if he has stronger hands, that's a touchdown Duggar
10:31was in man coverage against them.
10:32The very next play, the tight end catches the ball.
10:36It's man coverage against Duggar.
10:38He's opened by five yards and luckily for the Patriots, Duggar slaps the ball
10:41out and the guy's holding it like, you know, a jackass, you go to the Seahawks
10:45game, Duggar's responsible for the Metcalf, um, 56 yard, um, touchdown,
10:52the bust on that Duggar took the blame on film.
10:56It looked like he was to blame.
10:57And then also the Charbonnet key third and six play in overtime.
11:02Duggar's in man coverage against them.
11:04And just, and we've seen this repeatedly over his career.
11:08He just sort of forgets about the guy or gets locked in on the quarterback
11:12and forgets what he's doing.
11:13And then Charbonnet all of a sudden is uncovered out of the
11:15backfield and that's Duggar's guy.
11:16So something I just wrote for the website, sort of reviewing some of those
11:20plays, but Duggar in general, like now that he's got the green dot, he has to
11:25be a lot better or, you know, it's going to cause an issue for this team.
11:29And that's one thing I would be watching for over the coming weeks, especially
11:33with, you know, the jets and what Rogers likes to do at the line and sort of
11:37change things.
11:38And then also of course, the 49ers and everything that Kyle Shanahan brings to
11:42the table, um, the Duggar's going to get really stressed coming up in terms of,
11:48you know, keeping those guys on point, getting the checks, right.
11:51Making sure he has his assignment ready.
11:54Uh, so to me, this is a big thing for this team.
11:57It's a big test to tile Kyle Duggar.
12:00They paid him the big money.
12:01They need him to come through now.
12:03I was just going to say, I mean, he got his extension, he got paid.
12:06You can't have the guy who got paid during the off season, have the
12:09most minus plays for your defense.
12:11It's unacceptable.
12:12So hopefully he strains it out.
12:14I also don't want them covering tight ends very often because that hasn't
12:17worked out too well for the Patriots.
12:19So I'd like to stay away from that as much as possible.
12:22My question to you is given everything you just said, given the communication
12:26short week on the road, do you think Demarcus Covington might lean a little
12:31bit towards the, uh, kiss method, keep it simple, stupid, instead of being so
12:36fancy pants and, and, and tricky with disguising stuff, or should we anticipate
12:41the same kind of game plan going into this game?
12:44Yeah, it's a good question, Nick.
12:46And, and I got to think, I hope that they're taking the approach
12:50of like, look, it's Aaron Rogers.
12:52It's, it's like going up against Tom Brady.
12:54Like they've seen everything.
12:57They understand everything.
12:58They're going to have an answer.
12:59If you try to surprise these guys, you're going to get burned.
13:02And so in this game, at least for this week on a short week, I would keep it simple.
13:08Now, the other thing that you also have to keep in mind, um, the offensive
13:12coordinators in this game are basically mirror images of each other.
13:17Uh, Nathaniel Hackett for the jets, Alex van Pelt of, of, of the Patriots.
13:23The two of them were actually together in Buffalo.
13:26Um, way back when I did a story this weekend, you know, talking to Ryan Fitzpatrick
13:30about, uh, his experience with Alex van Pelt in 2009 in Buffalo.
13:35Um, you know, it was sort of a chaotic season, uh, but these guys like, you
13:40know, they were both sort of, well, not Hackett because his dads were like one
13:45of the, one of the godfathers of the West coast offense.
13:47So I'm sure he always had that in his bag.
13:49But when van Pelt ran the offense in Buffalo, he was really running more of
13:52the K gun, which they use with Jim Kelly.
13:55When Alex van Pelt was, you know, a backup there for a long time.
13:59And it wasn't until van Pelt went to a green bay with Mike McCarthy, um, where
14:04he really learned the West coast offense.
14:07That's sort of the backbone of what he does.
14:08Nathaniel Hackett, his dad, Paul was one of Bill Walsh's like right-hand
14:13man and helped create the West coast offense.
14:16Um, in fact, Mike McCarthy is a disciple of Paul Hackett.
14:21So all these guys, basically that's a long way of saying the Patriots should be
14:27seeing on Thursday night, a lot of stuff that they've seen in practice and a lot
14:31of stuff that, that, that they already know.
14:33So, um, no reason to get exotic, just be assignment sure.
14:38And just, just make sure that you're in the right place at the right time.
14:42Let's talk about Rogers, uh, analytically statistically, he's been pretty mid.
14:46Uh, he's 18th in QBR.
14:49Uh, you've said before, he doesn't like taking risks.
14:51He won't throw the football into tight windows.
14:53He used to be, he still, he might still be obsessed with this passer rating.
14:57Uh, so he, he's not going to take, you know, a lot of shots that are risky.
15:01And you also just mentioned he's not as mobile.
15:04He's not the same guy coming off the Achilles.
15:06He's now 40 years old.
15:07He doesn't have that mobility or that athleticism.
15:10When you look at this offense, Greg, the passing game, uh,
15:14they lack a lot of big plays.
15:16I mean, they're 20th and yards per pass attempt.
15:19And Rogers is getting the football out pretty quickly with this offense.
15:22Uh, how do you attack it?
15:23If you're Covington, how do you attack him?
15:27Uh, it's a good question.
15:30I mean, you know, I think, you know, when, when Rogers knows that it's going to be
15:34zoned, he, he gets it out like really quick, you know, he's looking for matchups.
15:38He's trying to be, uh, you know, sort of pinpoint and he's, you know, one of the
15:42most, he's still, you know, one of the most accurate passers in the league.
15:46I mean, he, you know, not many people throw it better than Aaron Rogers and he
15:50has like the perfect motion and, and he's, he's pinpoint, uh, you know, when
15:54he knows he has man coverage, you know, he really likes to go to the one
15:58on one routes down the sideline.
16:01Uh, he's an expert at the back shoulder, uh, throw.
16:04So if you're, you know, trying to get over the top of people, he'll come
16:07back and get them back shoulder.
16:09You know, he did have, I would say watching the film of the Titans game,
16:14you know, he seemed to get more comfortable as, as the, the game went on.
16:19Um, I, there were a few times where he didn't pull the trigger on some
16:24throws that, that I was surprised about.
16:27I would look to take Garrett Wilson out of the game as much as possible.
16:31Yep.
16:31Um, you know, because he's really the most explosive guy sort of, you know,
16:36let them beat you with everybody else.
16:38Uh, they will align him all over the place.
16:40He'll run the full route tree.
16:41So it's a little bit hard to get a beat on him.
16:43He'll run a lot of slants, you know, against zone.
16:47Um, you know, he will run, go routes, he'll run over and
16:50unders and all that stuff.
16:51But I would take, I would do my damndest to take Garrett Wilson out of it.
16:55I would worry, I would worry less about, um, you know, bringing extra people.
17:00I would cover a little bit longer.
17:02And the big thing is, is I do think Aaron Rogers not being as mobile as he used to
17:07makes things a lot easier on the defense where you don't have to stress about Aaron
17:10taking off and running like you used to.
17:12It is interesting because the numbers would tell you like the offensive line,
17:16their past protection numbers are the antithesis of the Patriots past protection
17:20numbers, eighth lowest sack rate.
17:23Um, you know, they, they have the fifth lowest pressure rate in the NFL, but.
17:29I think it's a combination of a couple of things.
17:30Roger's getting rid of the football quickly.
17:32And also what's interesting, Greg is the jets have faced the least amount of blitz
17:37percentage in football in the first two weeks.
17:39So teams are not blitzing Rogers, which is interesting because Rogers, when he's
17:44been blitzed, his numbers haven't been great.
17:46So I was going to ask you, how much would you blitz him?
17:49You just said you would go with more coverage and cover longer than go after him.
17:53My second question that you haven't answered yet, you talked about Garrett
17:57Wilson, how much of Gonzalez do you put on Wilson?
18:01Do you finally make the move?
18:03If you're going to be less exotic, Greg, do you finally say, Christian, that's
18:06your guy, shut them down or, you know, limit him as much as you can.
18:14Um, it's, it's, it's a good question.
18:16Um, you know, I, part of me, you know, wants to put Jonathan Jones on Wilson.
18:23I feel like it's a, you know, a little better matchup and I think
18:27Jones is a little bit more.
18:29He's still, he's still fast as hell.
18:31Um, but yeah, sure.
18:33I mean, why not turn them loose?
18:34I mean, as far as blitzing Aaron Rogers and not blitzing him, I think it's, it's
18:39because people know it's a losing battle that Aaron's going to know where you're,
18:44where you're coming from and he's going to throw to where you just came from and
18:48he's going to burn you with the blitz a little bit more now, it's not going to
18:51be big plays, he's going to get it out quick, which he does.
18:55Um, I, you know, I wouldn't rely too much on the pass rush in this game.
18:59I mean, you're going to have to hold up in coverage just because, you know, Aaron's
19:03just gonna, if you bring an extra guy, he's, he's going to just dump it off
19:08quickly and he's going to get the five to seven yards and keep things moving.
19:11And so that's where I think he's, he's really dangerous, but, um, you know, I
19:18just don't know, I just don't know, Nick, if how much DeMarcus Covington, like
19:25really how much confidence he has.
19:29Not, not, I'm not saying not in Gonzalez and not in his cover guys, because I do
19:33think, you know, that they're really good, but you know, to this point they
19:36haven't, I would say they've been more zoned so far.
19:40Um, so I don't know if they're building to that, but, or if it's a lack of
19:44confidence or lack in the pass rush and all that stuff.
19:47But, uh, I would be surprised.
19:50I would still think that we see the same mix and probably a little
19:53bit more man on third down.
19:56It was pretty difficult for Covington because your four man pass
19:58rush is getting no pass rush.
20:00If you blitz now, you might get caught like you did against Seattle a few
20:04times when they took advantage of it, but you're not getting home with your
20:08four pass rushers up front, which means you're asking your cornerbacks and
20:11defensive backs to do a hell of a lot of coverage.
20:13So the pretty difficult thing for this defense right now, uh, you look at the
20:18skill position players before we get to the run game quickly, obviously, uh,
20:21they've got Lazard, um, not too afraid of him.
20:25He'll he'll pop a big play every once in a while, but I would not be scared of him.
20:29Mike Williams is playing less than 43% of the snaps so far through the first two
20:32weeks.
20:33So they're still trying to get him and his feet under him since coming off the
20:37injury.
20:38So a lot of this passing game is Garrett Wilson run game, Greg.
20:42Uh, you look at it, Breeze hall, Braylon Allen, two very talented guys and, and
20:48dangerous talents.
20:50But what's the, what stands out to me is the jets have not run the football that
20:53effectively, uh, you know, seventh fewest yards.
20:56And of course these are two weeks, so they got down against San Francisco.
21:00How much do you run in that game, et cetera, but they're 21st and yards per
21:04carry and their offensive line has given up the seventh highest stuff
21:08percentage in football.
21:10So do you think the jets can run on this Patriots defense given the Patriots
21:15defense has done pretty damn well against the run the first two weeks?
21:20Um, you know, I, I do think it's going to be an interesting matchup and I was just
21:25looking at DVO way, the jets rush offenses, 23rd in the league, their pass
21:31offense is, uh, is 20th.
21:34Um, you know, I don't know if a lot of this, their issues running the ball are
21:41schematics and, and sort of how hack it goes about it, you know, because it's
21:47because, excuse me, like you said, the running backs are extremely talented.
21:52And one thing I want people to watch during this game, Nick, um, like I said,
21:58these offenses are basically mirror images of each other in terms of like what
22:02they want to do and how they want to run outside zone and, you know, play
22:05action off of that and all that stuff.
22:08You know, I was very impressed with the jets offensive line in terms of
22:12their athletic ability, how they get off the ball.
22:15Like just, just compare, watch, watch the Patriots in their run game when they
22:19try to run wide zone and watch the jets.
22:23Like it's, it's not quite night and day, but they have a lot of real,
22:26like really good athletes up front.
22:28So I don't know.
22:29And like I've said before, with the Patriots thing, you know, getting the,
22:32the zone blocking scheme down, it takes a lot of reps.
22:35It takes a lot of timing and it's probably pretty dicey early on in the
22:39season, um, you know, for all those guys, but like, you know, Tyron Smith.
22:44I've been impressed with him so far.
22:46Of course he hasn't been injured yet.
22:47Simpson, the left guard, Tipman, the center now Tipman, the center.
22:52One thing that I would watch, which he struggles with is the Patriots
22:57could hit a lot of looping stuff.
22:59T is stunts that sometimes the, the center.
23:02Tipman gets, uh, I don't know.
23:05He just loses his focus or just looks the wrong way.
23:08And like, I see a lot of him giving up a lot of stuff up the middle.
23:11Vera Tucker.
23:12He's a guy who's rounding into form.
23:15He had the, he had the major injury, the season ending injury last year.
23:18Moses at right tackle.
23:20Isn't a great athlete, but you know, pretty good, but that's one thing I'm
23:24surprised they aren't able to run it better.
23:26I think they will the more weeks that go on, because I do think that they have
23:31the athletic ability you're looking for, for the zone blocking scheme up front.
23:34And of course they have two very talented backs.
23:37Yeah.
23:37Decent amount of change up front for them too.
23:39So maybe trying to get the feet wet there, uh, two critical
23:42numbers offensively for the jets.
23:44They're they're fourth in red zone offense, uh, 75% of the time
23:48they score when they get there.
23:49So you want to keep them in between the twenties, especially this team
23:52down in distance, the jets are third in the NFL on third down.
23:56So, uh, you gotta, you gotta make sure you clean things up on first and second.
23:59All right, before we get to, uh, the Patriots offense versus the jets
24:02defense, our, our guy, Greg has a little bit of a message for you.
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24:44All right, Nick.
24:46All right.
24:46Here are my picks this week.
24:47I sort of swore off to Mario Douglas after last week.
24:53Cause I went back to the well thinking, all right, he can't only get like
24:5813 yards and like one catch again.
25:00Guess what?
25:01They went under zero targets, zero catches, zero yards, but I'm going back.
25:07I think they, they got to hear it enough.
25:09They heard it enough this week pops, you know, popping off
25:13in the locker room a little bit.
25:15So not only do I take DeMario Douglas once in prize picks, I'm taking them twice.
25:22Okay.
25:23So my prize picks this week, five picks to, uh, for 20 ducats pays three 20.
25:31I'm going with the Caleb Williams free w Antonio Gibson, more than 32 and a
25:37half rushing and receiving yards.
25:40He's got to get that right.
25:41I mean, I gotta think so.
25:42After last week, you got to give him some touches, right?
25:45Yeah.
25:46Austin Hooper, more than nine and a half receiving yards.
25:50Oh, that seems, that seems pretty easy, right?
25:54You know, especially if the jets say, Oh, well, we need to take Hunter Henry away.
25:58Maybe that opens something up for Austin Hooper.
26:00And now here we go to Mario Douglas, more than 24 and a half receiving yards.
26:08Come on, van Pelt.
26:10He's got to get that.
26:10Come on, come on this week.
26:12And then this one, I'm a little bit afraid of DeMario Douglas,
26:16more than three receiving targets.
26:20He's got to get three receiving targets right after last week.
26:23Just need targets.
26:24He doesn't need to catch the ball, just target them.
26:27So those are my picks this week.
26:29Download the prize picks app today and use code CLNS and get $50
26:34instantly when you play $5.
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26:45Price picks run your game, but dad playing with fire and watch out pop Douglas.
26:51All right, let's go.
26:52Uh, Pat's offense versus the, uh, jets defense.
26:56You have to start up front for two reasons.
26:59We talked about Caden wall is playing left tackle a window.
27:02Andrew's questionable.
27:04Uh, this offensive line for the Patriots has been brutal and, and
27:08pass protection 31st, uh, when you look at, uh, what, what they're doing there
27:13with, with their past protection, uh, last without, without blitzing.
27:18I mean, it's just, it's a, it's a bit of a mess, Greg upfront, I would say.
27:23And meanwhile, you have the, the jets.
27:26And when you look at the jets pass rush, you could argue it's
27:30the best pass rush in football.
27:31Number one in pressure rate, number four in sack rate.
27:34And here's the thing, Greg, they don't blitz.
27:36They have the eighth lowest blitz rate, which tells us that their four man pass
27:42rush is getting home and getting home often.
27:45You've got some guys, you've got Will McDonald, Javon Kinlaw, uh,
27:50both above 17% pressure rate.
27:52McDonald's got three sacks.
27:53Quinn and Williams is a beast in the middle there, uh, for the jets.
27:59How does this, uh, matchup stack up?
28:01How concerned are you when you're Alex van Pelt watching film, your
28:04offensive line against that four-man pass rush I should add before, before I
28:08get to Greg, uh, there is one thing we got to mention that's Jermaine Johnson.
28:13Who tore his Achilles last week.
28:14So he's not going to be in this game.
28:17He is one of their better pass rushers.
28:19Redick is still holding out.
28:21So that might help the Patriots a little bit on Thursday night.
28:25Yeah, you know, I would think so.
28:26I think it means, um, you know, more Clemens at, you know, right-end, which
28:31will be opposite, um, Caden Wallace.
28:33I think that's a little bit of an easier matchup.
28:36I'm really surprised at their stats.
28:37I'm not, I wasn't blown away by them on film, Nick.
28:42I I'm a guy who's been a big, uh, McDonald fan.
28:45Um, I, I don't know why it's taken him so long, sort of take hold, but I've always
28:50been impressed with them pre-draft and also some of the stuff that I saw out
28:54of him in recent pre-seasons.
28:56Um, yeah, I mean, obviously Quinn and Williams is just, they're, they're
28:59going to have to have a plan for him.
29:01Kinlaw, I'm not the biggest fan of his either, but you know, Quinn and Williams,
29:07they're going to have to have a plan.
29:08They're going to have to double him.
29:09That means that's that singles up other people.
29:13Um, but you know, here's the thing, Nick, and this is my biggest key to the game
29:18for the Patriots offense to actually be productive in this game, because we all
29:22know, and we saw it more against Seattle.
29:26The later the game went on, the more Seattle played man to man, the
29:30Patriots couldn't do anything.
29:31Yeah.
29:31So what's really interesting.
29:33Cause you look at, you know, sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, who I love, uh, at the other
29:38corner, you look at their cornerbacks and you figure, you know, they're just going
29:43to play and press man all the time.
29:44Right.
29:45Or that's, you know, that's what they do.
29:47Surprisingly, that's not what they do.
29:49Okay.
29:50But so for the season through two games and again, it was San Francisco.
29:55So, you know, you might handle San Francisco differently than say,
30:01you know, the Titans, but through two games, the jets are running
30:06zone coverage 70% of the time.
30:09Okay.
30:11But here's the rub.
30:13They are absurdly high zone rate on first and second down 71%, 86%,
30:21almost 87% on second down.
30:23However, on third down, it flips.
30:26There are 60% man team on third down.
30:29We all know the limitations with the Patriots and their wide receivers
30:33and their ability against man coverage.
30:35So to me, the key in this game for this Patriots offense, if I am Alex
30:39Van Pelt, I am telling my offense.
30:42We are going to be a CFL offense this week.
30:45We are not getting the third down.
30:47We are getting our first downs in the first two downs.
30:50Um, because if they get the third down too often, if they're just
30:55sort of slugging away and it's third and five, third and six against the jets
30:59and their cornerbacks and their pressure, it's going to be a very long night.
31:04So for me, I think they got to be aggressive on first down.
31:08I think they got to be aggressive on second downs and really try to limit
31:12the amount they're in third down with those splits that the jets are showing.
31:17Does that mean you don't think they run as much on early downs?
31:20Because I think Van Pelt's going to walk into this game and triple
31:24down on his, we're going to run the ball down your throat that the jets.
31:29Uh, defense has not been good against the run.
31:32Uh, there, there's several numbers I could give you just, you know, just trust me.
31:36They've been, they've been pretty bad against the run in the first two weeks
31:39and they got ripped to shreds by Jordan Mason and the 49ers week one on the ground.
31:45And what's interesting with that Greg, of course, is you got Kyle Shanahan, you
31:49know, not the same exact offense, but similar thought process, right?
31:54So similar kind of approach.
31:56And they just absolutely croaked the jets on the ground, uh, on that first Monday
32:02night, and then you look at what Alex van Pelt did last year and Kevin Stefanski
32:07for Cleveland against the jets.
32:09And again, they just ran it right at the jets.
32:13So I think this is, and it's not going to be breaking news given the first
32:19couple of weeks, but I think this is a big run game and I, I wouldn't be
32:23surprised if they ran the ball more against the jets than they ran it against
32:27Cincinnati and Seattle, if that's possible.
32:30Yeah.
32:30I mean, you know, that, that could definitely be, and you know, what I see
32:33that out of the jets, I mean, they certainly had the players, we know, CJ
32:36Mosley, their excellent linebacker is questionable, I think, you know, with a
32:40toe in this game, um, you know, what I see on film is that, and it's very similar
32:46to sort of the Seahawks defense.
32:48Um, you know, I do think that the, I would say the jets have more dudes.
32:53Upfront, but you know, it's very much sort of like wide gaps
32:58with the, with the defensive linemen.
33:00They all try to like get up the field.
33:02They're all trying to penetrate gaps and it leads to, you know, some gap
33:06integrity now that can the Patriots exploit that, I don't know.
33:10I, you know, with this offensive line, I'm not sure, obviously they have the
33:14backs, um, you know, but look, we're going to know early, I'm sure the game
33:21plan is to go out there and pound the run, but if the jets are a little bit
33:24more sound and they're defeating blocks and stuff like that, I just, I just worry
33:29about getting in too many third and especially third and longs against this
33:32offense.
33:33So they're going to, they're going to have to manage that.
33:35It's interesting.
33:36Cause numbers wise, the jets defense on third down, hasn't been good.
33:40You wonder if that's because they go to man and they don't play as much man.
33:43So there might be some, some issues there, but we'll see a couple of things.
33:48You mentioned CJ Mosley.
33:49He did not practice.
33:50He hasn't practiced all week.
33:52Uh, Robert Sala said he's 50 50, but I've seen reporters in New York say that it's
33:57unlikely that mostly is going to play Quincy Williams, another guy you want to
34:01watch, he's got nine run stops, which puts him in the top 30 in the NFL.
34:04So, you know, he's pretty good.
34:05He's pretty active on the second level.
34:08And the other thing that's interesting to me, Greg is, you know, you look at this
34:12run defense for the jets, what teams have done, they've run the fifth highest run
34:17percentage outside the tackles.
34:19So especially of course, San Francisco with Shanahan the first couple of weeks
34:24that they've, they've, you know, there's been a lot of runs outside the tackles.
34:27If you're, if you're Alex van Pelt, after what you've seen on film, do you want to
34:32start with outside zone or do you mix it up and go, you know, duo and downhill
34:38kind of attack in between the tack?
34:41Yeah, I, I would, I would stick with what Stevenson wants to do, which seems to be
34:46the gap scheme, um, because, uh, you know, I do worry about the speed of the jets
34:51defense and I just don't think the Patriots are fast enough and athletic
34:54enough on the offensive line to really hit that wide zone stuff.
34:57So, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to go right at them.
35:01I'm trying to, you know, double Quinn and Williams and get to the second
35:04level, that type of thing.
35:05That's the approach I would take.
35:06All right, Greg, he has a couple of props for pop Douglas coming up in this game.
35:12I want to, I want to ask him what he would do if he were van Pelt to get pop going.
35:16But first Greg tell the fine people, but our friends at game time.
35:21It's that time of year.
35:22It's getting cooler.
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35:59I was just perusing the Patriots jets tickets.
36:03This is, I see lower sideline row 33.
36:11I could see the picture from the seat.
36:13Looks like awesome.
36:14Two 70 all in.
36:16If you want to come down, take the trip down with me and Giardi.
36:19Uh, we're going to be there and it should be fun.
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36:34What time is it?
36:35Game time.
36:35If you're wondering, no, Greg and Mike have not invited me to go on this trip.
36:39I'm continuing the friction between myself, Greg and Mike.
36:45I'm trying to rectify that.
36:47I don't know if I'm going to be able to get it done.
36:49Uh, maybe they think I stink, maybe got a gas problem or something.
36:53I don't know, but I have not been invited just yet on one of these road trips.
36:57All right, pop Douglas, Greg, how do you get them more involved?
37:03Uh, a little bit of everything, Nick, you know, what I want to see in the
37:07first quarter of this game is I want to see an end around a pop.
37:11I want to see a bubble to pop and a bubble screen.
37:15And I also want to see him aligned in the backfield.
37:19Um, you know, and getting a pick route from somebody.
37:23They there's easy ways to do this.
37:26I think Alex van Pelt has to make it a focus to do it.
37:29I would stress that I want to see at least three touches for
37:32pop Douglas in the first quarter.
37:34It's definitely doable.
37:35I don't know why he hasn't done it to this point.
37:37I do think there's a little bit of, uh, keeping the wear and tear down on pop
37:42because it's, it's easy to say, all right, well, some of these little like zone
37:47things that Hunter Henry's been getting, you could do it to pop.
37:51Yeah.
37:51But Hunter Henry's also six foot five and 255 pounds.
37:56And you know, in pop, he catches it at like five foot eight and like 180 pounds.
38:01And all of a sudden you have, you know, a cornerback and a linebacker
38:05teeing off on him.
38:06It's not exactly ideal and he's had concussion problems.
38:10So I think, I think there's been a little bit of that, but like, look,
38:14they just, they need more production.
38:16He's the best guy with his ball in his hand.
38:19That's what they have to do.
38:20Before the season kicked off, I did a segment on 98 five and I was kind of
38:25questioning some of the idea that pop Douglas was going to have, you know,
38:28a hundred catches and go off.
38:30And not because I don't think pop Douglas is talented.
38:33He's obviously talented.
38:35Uh, but there are a few questions that I had, which was a, his injury history,
38:39the concussion history, how much would they use him or are they going to
38:43try to manage him so to speak?
38:45B Alex van Pelt, West coast offense.
38:48We want to run the football pop Douglas, not a big guy, not a blocking wide
38:53receiver that would get in the way.
38:55And I was reading, uh, our friend Andrew Callahan at the Herald this week.
38:59And, and Andrew mentioned, you know, there's an issue here and that has to
39:03do with the personnel packages.
39:05And I know Evan Lazar said, I believe you've said it as well.
39:08We're like the Patriots, you know, they're running a lot of 12 personnel
39:12because they've been successful running 12 personnel, two tight end sets.
39:16But I think Evan had the number that pop played like two of the
39:2020 snaps when they were in 12.
39:23And the issue is when you get that information, you say, oh, well, then
39:28why don't you go to more 11 personnel, three wide receivers and get pop on the
39:33field, the problem is when the Patriots have played 11 personnel,
39:36they haven't been very successful.
39:37So how do you handle the usage issue and the idea of, Hey, we want to play
39:43two tight ends and run the ball, but this guy's five, eight a buck 70.
39:49Yeah.
39:50And I think part of the issue with that is like, you know, when they put the
39:54extra lineman on the field and was Caden Wallace, and I don't know if they're
39:57going to have that guy, Zach Thomas up to do it now, but like that's probably
40:02been their best personnel package in terms of, you know, yardage gained.
40:06And a lot of that is on the ground.
40:07And, and I think, uh, you know, pops, not exactly a guy that you're
40:13going to rely on, uh, in the run blocking game, you'd rather have, you
40:17know, Jalen Polk or somebody like that out there, KJ Osborne.
40:21Um, so, but I do think that Alex van Pelt just has to do a better job
40:26of mixing and matching, you know, personnel, like you can have 12
40:30personnel, but you can, you know, run it a different way and different alignments.
40:34This is the kind of stuff that we would routinely see when Josh McDaniels
40:38was the offensive coordinator here.
40:40And I just think it's been a shortcoming for Alex van Pelt.
40:43All right.
40:44We're going to get to our pick in a minute, but first I remind you, you
40:47want to download the prize picks app today, use code CLNS, get 50 bucks
40:50instantly when you play $5, that's code CLNS and Greg just told you about
40:54game time, buying tickets, check out game time, create an account code.
40:58CLNS will get you 20 bucks off your first purchase.
41:01And I'm not done promoting.
41:03I'm going to promote Greg himself and Mike Giardi.
41:05Great coverage, BSJ 50 bucks for the year.
41:09All right.
41:10Jets minus six, six point favorites.
41:13Greg, the over under number is 38.
41:16Uh, update Greg is one in one against the spread this year.
41:21Uh, I am two and Oh, on the season.
41:24I went, wait, I'm not one Oh, and one, I thought it was, did
41:27you push, didn't I think I, I think we pushed and I don't know.
41:32I'll have to go back and listen.
41:34Well, Greg's either one-on-one or one zero and one, he's
41:36going to fight for one zero and one.
41:38And, uh, I'm two and Oh, on the year.
41:41Uh, but I went first last week.
41:42So Greg, you go first this week.
41:44Jets minus six 38 over under.
41:48So I think that is way too big of a number for Thursday night.
41:53And we're talking about two, you know, pretty unimpressive, um, offenses.
41:58Um, you know, while I do like the jets in this game and I think that
42:03they're going to win the game, you know, I, I just think these, these,
42:08these two teams are way too, um, similar.
42:12Um, you know, I see it a lot, a lot like the Seahawks game and, you know,
42:17and at the end of the day I took, I thought Gino Smith was a better
42:21quarterback and he has the three best wide receivers and
42:24everything else is sort of even.
42:25Um, same sort of thing here, you know, with Rogers, Garrett Wilson's
42:30the best wide receiver on the field.
42:32Um, even though there's not a whole, whole lot of high level
42:36targets for either team, I think the defenses sort of cancel each other out.
42:40So I'm going to take the jets more like a field goal game.
42:45Um, you know, something along the lines of, let's see, it's, you
42:50said it's like 38, uh, so probably like 2017 jets.
42:56All right.
42:59So this is why I hate going second because Greg and I think a lot of like,
43:03although last week we disagreed.
43:05Um, I think this is going to be a, an ugly game short week.
43:10You got a bunch of injuries for both teams, both, you know, you got two
43:13cornerbacks dinged up for the jets.
43:15Mosley's out.
43:16Johnson's out.
43:17Mostly likely out.
43:18Johnson's definitely out.
43:20Patriots offensive line and Bentley.
43:21There's a lot of, a lot of adjusting on a short week.
43:25Always difficult to do.
43:27Um, I agree with you, Greg, neither offense is lighting it up.
43:30Neither offense is sexy.
43:32I think the Patriots going to try to run the football as much as they can.
43:35I wouldn't be surprised if the jets try to run it a little
43:37bit more than they have.
43:38Rogers and Brissette, two quarterbacks that never throw picks lowest
43:42interception rate in NFL history.
43:44They're the two guys at the very top of the list.
43:49As far as lowest interception rate.
43:51So I don't think you'll see the quarterbacks throw the football
43:55to the other team very often.
43:56I think the jets win.
43:58Uh, I just don't have enough confidence in the Patriots offensive line,
44:01especially with these injuries.
44:03Now their home field Rogers, Brissette, obviously you tip the scale towards
44:07Rogers, but I don't think it's going to be high scoring game and I do
44:11not think the jets cover the six.
44:13I think six is too much.
44:14I got jet 1613 and the bats, the pats can absolutely win this game,
44:19but, uh, it's, it's going to be a little bit of a fistfight yet.
44:22Again, deja vu.
44:23You've seen a lot of this through the first three weeks.
44:26You're going to see it again on Thursday night.
44:27So, uh, we'll see how that goes.
44:29I got 1613.
44:30Greg said 20 to 17.
44:32So we both got the jets by three points and we're both, uh, saying
44:36they're going to be under that 38.
44:38Everybody enjoy the game.
44:39Hopefully as much as you can.
44:41Uh, Greg and I are going to go eat now, not together separately.
44:45And then he's going to jump in his rental car tomorrow and drive
44:48down, uh, with Mike Giardi.
44:50I don't know what music they're playing.
44:51Uh, I don't know if they sing to each other in the car, but
44:55we'll go down on a Jersey.
44:57They'll hang out.
44:57They'll have all the best coverage.
44:59Uh, everybody be well, be good and enjoy the football.