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00:00This year can still be, they can still be a playoff team, I mean the odds are stacked
00:04against them.
00:05You want the quirky number of the day on that?
00:07Sure.
00:08I think you saw this.
00:10The Niners are probably not going to go 5-0 the rest of the way.
00:13But if they did?
00:14Yeah, Steine had this earlier.
00:16Did you hear it?
00:1780%?
00:18Yeah, 79% chance to make the playoffs if they win their last five games.
00:21Right, and that makes perfect sense.
00:23They'd be 10-7 and they would probably win the division, assuming that, and even if they
00:28don't win, well if they don't win the division, I don't know if they can get in.
00:30It could still be a wild card at 10-7.
00:31It'd be tight though, right?
00:33There's a spot, there's a dangling spot.
00:35You've got Washington, Green Bay, and Minnesota.
00:37Washington's the one.
00:38I don't know that they're going to beat 10-7.
00:41They've already got, what, five losses?
00:45You know, like they've not been as good.
00:47Yep, eight and five.
00:48Yeah, they've not been as good.
00:49So you know, you look at their schedule the rest of the way, I think that they, don't
00:55they still have Philly again?
00:58Let's see.
00:59They do.
01:00They've still got to play Philly, they still have to play Atlanta, they're going to play
01:06Dallas and New Orleans.
01:07Dallas and New Orleans.
01:08They've only got four more games.
01:09They've got to buy this week.
01:10They've only got four more games.
01:11If they go 2-2, then they're 10-7.
01:15I have no idea what the tiebreaker would be.
01:18But you get what I'm saying.
01:19It's head-to-head, then conference record.
01:21But it sounds to me like while you haven't, quote, given up on this year, and I'm with
01:26you because I don't know what you get for that, like, let's see them play the Bears
01:30this week.
01:31Right, exactly.
01:32And I haven't given up on the Warriors either.
01:33But next year, this whole idea of the league has caught up to Shanahan, Debo's lost a step,
01:42Trent's going to be 37, now Christian's broken again, like, I sit over here and go, well,
01:49I mean, those are all real things, but I don't think that between now and nine months from
01:55now to next August, September, that means that all these guys just, like, scheme dead,
02:01can't play football anymore.
02:02Of course not.
02:03And I'm not saying that.
02:04They could have a really good year next year.
02:05They sure can.
02:06And they actually should.
02:07And we talked about this on Tuesday about their schedule.
02:10Their schedule next year, if they wind up this year as a fourth-placed team in the West,
02:14and I don't think that they will, but for the sake of the argument, it doesn't even
02:18matter where they wind up because their schedule next year is a joke.
02:21You play the AFC South and the NFC South.
02:24Those are eight teams that are traditionally not world beaters.
02:28And this year, the NFC South, Atlanta leads the way at six and six, Atlanta and Tampa.
02:33And the AFC South, you get Jacksonville, you get Tennessee that doesn't have a quarterback,
02:39Indy lost in the woods, and you get the fight in D'Amico's who, there's another team that
02:43was super hot in November, and now they've kind of regressed to the mean a little bit.
02:47They're good, but they're not scary.
02:49Exactly.
02:50So next year's schedule is really good.
02:52All I'm saying about the scheme is that Kyle Shanahan this year in the offseason, I think,
02:59has got to go back to the drawing board in many ways and figure out different ways to
03:04go about running the ball, different ways to go about running his offense, because this
03:08year I don't think that he has been that innovative.
03:12I see him running a lot of the same stuff and it's not working.
03:15And is it because the O-line?
03:17Sure.
03:18Yeah.
03:19Is it because you lost skill guys?
03:20Absolutely.
03:21It's a lot of things, but I also do think that teams around the league are seeing this
03:26offense a lot more.
03:27A lot of teams now run what Kyle runs, so you're getting used to facing this.
03:33See, I look at it this way.
03:34Do you remember when Greg Cosell said to us a few weeks ago, he goes, look, there are
03:39no mysteries in the NFL.
03:41These guys, I mean, my God, they played the Packers a couple of weeks ago.
03:45Does anybody know anybody better than LeFleur knows Shanahan and vice versa?
03:51There's no way that they went out there on the field and went, oh my God, I had no idea
03:55that was coming.
03:57It's sort of like under the premise that whatever you do offensively as a football team always
04:03has to have the element of surprise.
04:06It doesn't.
04:07You just need to execute better than the opponent.
04:10But there used to be plays, three or four a game, where he would run something and the
04:15defense would have no idea and it would just be wide open.
04:19I agree with you.
04:20Yes, I agree with you.
04:21And again, I've said it 50 times, he's not had a good year.
04:24I'm not disagreeing with that point.
04:26What I'm disagreeing with is the statement, the league has figured him out.
04:30I just, I can't even understand that.
04:33I don't think football works that way.
04:35They already figured him out.
04:37Everybody knows damn well what everybody's going to do every week.
04:41And it's a matter of, are you ready for it in that moment?
04:44And then do you execute in order to stop it?
04:47If a defensive player fires through the offensive line, it doesn't matter if your play call
04:53was good or not.
04:54The damn thing's going to get blown up.
04:55The Super Bowl's on the phone.
04:56Right.
04:57But if Trent Williams comes around the corner and you know he's coming, so what if he throws
05:02you into the third row?
05:04You're gone and the running back's going to fly right by you.
05:07So I'm not saying...
05:08And if Kyle Juszczyk runs the ball and doesn't fumble at the one, then that's chalked up
05:12as a good play.
05:13Yes, exactly.
05:14Instead of you saying, you know, why'd you give it to the fullback?
05:16Well, if he doesn't fumble and he scores, it's like, oh, clever play.
05:19So I guess, again, they've all struggled.
05:25I don't want the execution comment to sound like the blame is all on the players.
05:30It's not.
05:31You've got to coach them up.
05:32They've got to be more disciplined.
05:34They've been undisciplined.
05:35I've hated the penalties this year.
05:37All of it has been wildly disappointing.
05:39But I do not buy the statement, the league has figured out Kyle Shanahan.
05:46And the reason I don't buy it is because I think they figured him out 15 years ago.
05:50I think they knew what he was doing when he got the job.
05:53He's always been doing, he's extending what his dad has been doing.
05:57There are philosophies in sports.
05:58I get it, yeah.
05:59It's just like the Warriors.
06:01The Rockets know what they're going to do tonight.
06:03They know.
06:04But try and stop Steph.
06:05Go ahead.
06:06Well, he's not playing, so you don't have to worry about that.
06:09It worked.
06:10We figured it out.
06:11Exactly.
06:12His stuff has been figured out.
06:13Do you know what I mean?
06:14I do.
06:15They know what they're going to do.
06:16I do think that there's a part of what he's done in the recent years with the pre-snap
06:20motion and the jet sweep and all the other things that he's done with his personnel.
06:25And he can't do it this year because he hasn't had his personnel.
06:28And one thing that I've talked to a lot of football people about is the advantage that
06:32Kyle has is when you huddle up and you've got Juszczak and Kittle and Debo and Ayuk
06:39and McCaffrey, any of those five guys can line up in any one of the five positions.
06:43So as a defense, as the Niners break the huddle, you've got 15 seconds to figure out where
06:49everyone's going and what that might mean.
06:51When you don't have those guys, when you have Mason, OK, Mason's not going to go in the
06:56slot.
06:57Mason's probably not going to run a route.
06:58He's not going to run a wheel route out of the backfield.
07:01Juszczak might go on the line, but he'll probably block.
07:04He's not really a receiver.
07:06There's no Ayuk.
07:07So if we have Debo over here, we know Debo's not running a 20-yard in.
07:11Debo's going to probably do what he does.
07:14Kittle's the guy you worry about.
07:15But the big advantage that Shanahan has, he hasn't had this year because his personnel
07:21has not been diverse enough.
07:23Well, it's interesting because this is when you say that here, I think because it's come
07:27up before, and Grandy actually, you want to talk about getting pinned, he pinned me
07:33on this yesterday.
07:35If that's the idea, if Kyle Shanahan's offense is not working as well because Christian McCaffrey
07:43is not on the field, how the hell did he do 2019?
07:48How'd he do it?
07:49And the way he pinned me is, my memory bank was, well, that was a different team that
07:55would grind things out a little more.
07:57He goes, no, they averaged 30 points a game.
07:59They averaged 30 points a game with Jimmy flipping Garoppolo as their quarterback, and
08:09let's be real, a bunch of Jags as their running backs.
08:14Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson.
08:16This is who's running around back there, crushing the Packers in the NFC Championship game.
08:23How does Raheem Mostert run for over 200 yards in a standalone NFC Championship game to head
08:31to the Super Bowl while Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't even throw the football nearly at all?
08:38And you average 30 a game, and you go to the Super Bowl.
08:42How?
08:43How?
08:44If I'm answering that question, this is a scheme that is just like anything else in
08:50life.
08:51It's a staircase.
08:52If you jump on the first step well, now you've got an opportunity for the next step, and
08:57then the next step, and then the next step.
08:59In other words, here's my scheme.
09:02Now, okay offensive line, here's step one.
09:05Execute.
09:06Don't commit a penalty, fill your lanes, get your assignments, block your people.
09:11If we can do that, now we're going to the next step, and the next step, and so on and
09:16so forth.
09:17So it all works together to where a JAG running back can suddenly run for 200 yards one year,
09:24and then four years later, if step one of the execution doesn't work, then your DEBOs
09:30and your Christians and all of it, it doesn't matter.
09:34And sometimes they can perform, but not nearly as much.
09:38I think you agreed with me on this.
09:40How many times this year have we seen second and nine?
09:43It feels constant.
09:44Yeah, yeah.
09:45We never used to see second and nine.
09:48It was at least second and six.
09:51All the time.
09:52Yeah, it's been a lot.
09:53I don't think that that is Purdy or DEBO or Christian or Jordan or play call.
10:00I think that that is Jake Brendel and things like that.
10:04That's what I think.
10:05I do think that part of it is play call, and I think that Shanahan this year has fallen
10:10too much, especially early in the year before Brock had his shoulder issue, whatever it
10:15is.
10:16We don't really know, but he was in love with the deep throw and all we wanted all the time
10:20with Kyle Shanahan was throw the ball down the field.
10:24And then this year it's like, can you just throw it underneath a little bit more because
10:27he was throwing the ball down the field too much and you don't have great pass protection.
10:31So Brock is running around and scrambling and fighting for yards.
10:35I do think when you go back to 2019, the offense that he was running was, and you can call
10:40them Jags if you want, but that offensive line was road grading and they were creating
10:46a lot in the run game and you know, Kyle Shanahan was much more married to it than he's been
10:51this year.
10:52By the way.
10:53Yeah.
10:54Like I, I will, I will absolutely stand by what, what I'm, what I'm saying when I call
10:58them Jag running backs.
11:00Doesn't mean that they weren't good players.
11:02Doesn't mean that they aren't good players.
11:03They're in the NFL.
11:04They're amazeballs.
11:05Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida.
11:07These guys run 22 miles an hour.
11:09Are you kidding me?
11:10They're incredible, but be real.
11:13They're not stars.
11:14They're not overly special in the framework of the NFL.
11:19They're not Saquon Barkley.
11:21They're not Christian McCaffrey, not Joe Mixon.
11:23They're not these people.
11:25They're not.
11:26But boy, they performed like that under the Kyle Shanahan system.
11:30And I think it's less about like when we, so part of this is also because everyone wants
11:34to use the word genius and guru and all of these things.
11:38And it's not that they're, they're good play calls, but good play calls need the first
11:44step of good execution for them to go anywhere.
11:48And the Niners have not had that this year.
11:50And, and, and it is, there's so many things.
11:53Yes, it's injury.
11:54I also think I, for me, a lot of this, everything in sports is mental.
12:00I really do.
12:01I believe that this, this whole group all the way down to the staff, I think is cruising
12:08around Levi's stadium right now and the facility going, good Lord, like everything feels hard.
12:16Nothing has worked.
12:17Some in their control and their fault, some out, but it's just a total drain.
12:24The whole thing looks drained and I, but I, I just, I don't think that that means it's
12:30been figured out or now ineffective for the rest of our lives.
12:33I'm not saying that.
12:34I mean, it's up to Kyle Shanahan to make the adjustments because what they've done this
12:38year largely hasn't worked and they've been able to run the ball.
12:41So I don't think that I look at the offensive line and think it's been a complete disaster.
12:46They're they're fifth in the league in yards per carry pro football focus has them as the
12:51number one run blocking unit in all football.
12:53So the big issue with the offensive line for me has been the penalties and it's like you
12:59said, setting you back behind the sticks second and 15 or first and 15 those things
13:04have hurt you.
13:05And, and also your past game, your quarterback, whether it's because his shoulder hurts or
13:11he's got a sore shoulder or whatever it is and he hasn't had his weapons, the passing
13:15game has not been as good.
13:17And so, you know, you've got a quarterback who's not letting it rip.
13:21Maybe it's because of the shoulder.
13:23Maybe it's because he doesn't trust his weapons and you've had a lot of those guys be out.
13:27And so especially these last couple of games and Brock, I know didn't play in Green Bay,
13:31but in the Buffalo game you can discount because the snow, but the offense, the passing offense
13:36hasn't been as good.
13:37The idea that they're still running the ball well, I think gets zapped on a couple of things
13:41like, yeah, fine.
13:43Great.
13:44PFF thinks they can run the ball while they can't inside the 15.
13:47So it doesn't matter because you sure you can run the ball to get three and Jake Moody
13:52might make the kick and he might not.
13:54And then you can run the ball down to the 15 and then you can have two holding penalties
13:58and now you're punting the ball.
14:02And so I just, I don't, I don't buy those, those stats.
14:06We can see and feel that they cannot run the ball as good this year as they have in the
14:11past.
14:12We can see it.
14:14And so I, I think those numbers are a little misleading because a, they don't take a, they
14:18don't take red zone into account and B, they don't take into account the lack of discipline
14:24that that offensive line has shown.
14:26You can run the ball and have it be second and five and then you hold, now it's second
14:29and 15.
14:30Great.
14:31You ran the ball.
14:32You're averaging five yards of carry, but you're, you're five yards behind the sticks.
14:36Like I just, and we've seen it over and over and over again.
14:39So everything, I mean, everything is, think of in this conversation today, how many different
14:48reasons have we come up with for why things are bad?
14:53The list, it goes on forever.
14:55And so if that's the case, I just don't think that you can look at one person.
14:59I don't think you can look at Kyle.
15:01We've been talking about Debo.
15:03It is, it's so many comprehensive, sure.
15:07And you could look at the games, the three games that they blew and those were mistakes
15:11made by Ronnie Bell and Jordan Mason.
15:15And you know, Devandre Campbell made a big mistake, Charverius Ward with a, you know,
15:20getting beat on a 50 yard pass play.
15:23There's enough mistakes to go around, but ultimately it falls on the desk of Kyle Shanahan.
15:28And that's why I look at, you know, going into next year, he's got to figure out new
15:33ways to innovate this offense because this year it's been pretty, it's been pretty flat
15:38and they haven't had a lot of plays that are schemed to be explosive plays.