This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 30/10/2024.
Apart from some wet and windy weather in the north to end this week, high pressure means the next 10 days look largely dry for most.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
Apart from some wet and windy weather in the north to end this week, high pressure means the next 10 days look largely dry for most.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, it's 10 day trend time. So let's have a look at what we can expect weather wise
00:05as we go through well the Halloween period and the bonfire period and beyond. At the
00:10moment, looking at the bigger picture, high pressure definitely in control. That's why
00:15there's a lot of fine settled weather around at the moment. But whilst we're looking at
00:20the bigger picture, let's head further south and there's actually an air of low pressure
00:23that has caused a lot of devastation across parts of Spain, particularly around the Valencia
00:28region. It's led to almost 500 millimetres of rain in just eight hours. So no wonder
00:34there's been some pretty horrific flooding in places. And that low pressure is drifting
00:39away towards the west. There's also a separate low out towards the Atlantic, but that's not
00:43going to affect the UK a huge amount. But now let's look at the jet stream. Why? Because
00:48it's important. It's always important for the UK's weather. And at the moment, you can
00:52see it's quite actively running to the north of the UK, allowing for this high pressure
00:57that's been across the UK for a little while and will stick around for a little while yet
01:03to dominate our weather, as well as allowing for the high pressure. This jet stream, well,
01:08it is bordering just the far north of the UK. Look at those isobars. They're pretty
01:11tightly packed across the north of the UK around Scotland. So there will be some strong
01:16blustery winds as we go through Thursday, through Halloween across Scotland, much lighter
01:21winds elsewhere where you're closer to the centre of that high. But there's also a bit
01:25of rain around towards the far north. But we're going to see a bit more of that as we
01:29go through the next couple of days. As well as that, the jet stream is also forming that
01:33boundary between this cold Arctic air just to the north of us and then this milder air,
01:38which much of the country is under for the time being. That cold Arctic air is then plunging
01:43southwards over parts of Europe instead. Meanwhile, we have that mild weather that we have at
01:48the moment. As we go through into Friday, however, we are going to see the jet stream
01:53pushing a little bit further southwards and with that front is going to make its way southwards
01:58and behind that that cold Arctic air I mentioned is actually going to start to edge its way
02:03into parts of Scotland. And so we are going to see a markedly fresher, chillier feel to
02:08things across parts of Scotland, whilst much of the UK stays on the milder side for the
02:13time being. High pressure, another high pressure still in control, though, so staying fairly
02:19settled for much of the country. There will be some rain across northern parts, but that
02:22will start to shift away towards the east as we go through Saturday. A bit of uncertainty
02:28about the detail when it comes to Saturday, and I'll tell you why, because if we look
02:31at the Met Office model, which I have here, and there's sort of a warm wave developing
02:35somewhere towards Iceland as we go into this weekend. But actually, EC data suggests we
02:41could have an actual low develop over Iceland. And so that could change the detail slightly.
02:47But generally, as we go through into this weekend, we're sticking with high pressure
02:51in control, albeit shifted slightly away towards the east, but nonetheless, staying largely
02:57dominant over our weather. So lots of fine, largely dry weather still to come. It's been
03:02pretty cloudy at the moment, and that may continue for a time. However, because of this
03:08high drifting away towards the east, we are going to see a couple of things after a slightly
03:13chillier spell as we go through Friday across northern parts. I think the warm air is going
03:18to return across northern parts. But as well as that, because of the position of this high,
03:23if you actually track the wind, the air that's coming into southern parts, if you track that
03:29back its original source as we go through the end of the weekend and into the beginning
03:34of next week, we'll actually see that that air will be coming from a much clearer, cleaner
03:39direction. And so with that then, I think whilst it's been pretty cloudy of late with
03:44the high pressure and will be as we go into the weekend, we're going to see the air clearing
03:48up a little bit. So we're going to see greater breaks in the cloud. It's slightly fresher
03:52air, so we're going to see our temperatures dropping a little bit. But there's probably
03:56going to be a bit more sunshine on offer as we go into the beginning of next week. Now,
04:02one thing that we need to bear in mind, it is Halloween on Thursday. So let's look at
04:06the details. This is the 10 day trend, so I won't go into too much detail as we are
04:10covering Halloween and most of our other forecasts. But just briefly, yes, there's a bit of
04:14rain, some blustery winds across parts of Scotland. Watch out for some gales here. Otherwise,
04:18a largely fine picture and pretty mild without not a huge amount of sunshine, quite cloudy,
04:24but pretty mild with temperatures in the mid teens. And with that, with the high pressure,
04:28the largely cloudy skies, it's looking fairly decent if you're heading out trick or treating
04:32on Thursday evening away from the north northwest of Scotland, where it's going to be pretty
04:37wet. The rain doesn't look especially heavy, but damp nonetheless. And there will still
04:41be some strong winds. These will be easing. Elsewhere, largely calm, quite a bit of cloud.
04:47But the benefit of that cloud is, well, it may make things look a bit eerie, but it will
04:52also keep temperatures up. So you probably won't need a coat if you're heading out trick
04:56or treating. Otherwise, as we go overnight into Friday, we are going to see this front
05:00that I mentioned edging a little bit further southward. So across the northern half of
05:04Scotland by the early hours of Friday morning, it's going to be pretty wet here, some persistent
05:08rain feeding in. Meanwhile, across other areas, there may be some mist and fog patches
05:12developing, but it's looking mostly dry, apart from the odd spot of drizzly rain where the
05:17clouds thick enough. And like I say, quite cloudy for most of us. With that, then temperatures
05:22not dropping. So a mild start on Friday for most of us and staying pretty mild across
05:26most places, the exception being where we're to the north of this front as it pushes a
05:30little bit further southwards. Here we will have some of the Arctic air making its way
05:35in, and so it is going to feel quite a bit colder here. There will be some rain make
05:39its way southwards across Scotland with this front, but it breaks up and eases as it goes
05:43southwards. So it shouldn't cause any major problems. Like I said, a chillier feel across
05:47northern parts. And when you factor in those brisk winds coming in from the north, it's
05:51going to feel even colder. Here are feels like temperatures for Friday and for the northern
05:56isles, it may even feel below freezing. So pretty raw indeed. Meanwhile, across the rest
06:01of the country, yes, not quite as mild as on Thursday, but nonetheless still pretty
06:06mild for the time of year. Heading further ahead and into the weekend and with bonfire
06:11night coming up, there are a lot of celebrations to be had through this weekend as well. Saturday
06:15actually looks like a largely fine day. Most of that rain will have cleared away towards
06:19the east across northern parts. There will be some outbreaks of rain here or there. You
06:22can see some across parts of the West Country, southwest England, even central southern parts
06:26seeing a few bursts of showery rain, perhaps with that cloud. But on the whole, a largely
06:32dry story and temperatures still fairly mild for the time of year, despite the fact that
06:36there may not be all that much sunshine around. Perhaps the greatest chance of some sunshine
06:41will be in areas downwind of any higher ground, I guess. So eastern parts of Scotland could
06:46see some breaks, maybe even parts of Wales, southwest England, maybe southeast England
06:50perhaps may see some breaks. But on the whole, a largely cloudy story. Staying mostly dry
06:55with high pressure firmly in control as we go through Saturday night and overnight into
06:59Sunday. Like I said, there could be a number of fireworks displays going on, so that's
07:03pretty good conditions for any of those happening. Light winds as well are generally favoured
07:09conditions for any fireworks displays. Worth bearing in mind that similar to recent nights
07:13and preceding nights, we could see some mist and fog patches developing and with that they
07:18could be made a little bit worse with any bonfires, fireworks going off. So there could
07:22be a bit of a fog issue as we go through the night Saturday night into Sunday. But
07:27as we wake up on Sunday morning, it's looking largely dry, perhaps a touch fresher than
07:31it has been through some recent nights, but not especially chilly. Just where we get any
07:35clear skies, it may be a touch fresher, particularly towards the south than of late. As we go through
07:40Sunday itself and another largely fine day, relatively similar to Saturday really. Again,
07:46a few spots of rain here or there, but not that many. Most of us will stay dry and actually
07:51with that slightly cleaner air mass that I mentioned coming through, I'm expecting
07:55a bit more sunshine, more breaks in the cloud to develop compared to Saturday. Yes, it is
08:00a slightly cooler, chillier air mass and so temperatures on paper, while they are going
08:05to be a couple of degrees lower for many places. But with the sunshine, when you factor that
08:10in, if anything, it might feel a little bit warmer for most of us on Sunday compared to
08:15Saturday. So generally fine weekend for most of us, which is good news for anyone with
08:20any outdoor activities planned. But whilst we talk about those temperatures, let's have
08:24a look in comparisons of our forecast temperatures to average for the time of year. And on the
08:29top I have our forecast highs compared to average, our daily highs and on the bottom
08:35of I have our forecast daily mins compared to average. And generally you can see looking
08:40at our highs, they're going from well on Friday, Saturday to around or a little bit above average
08:44for the time of year and similar on Sunday, especially in the north. By Monday, starting
08:50to see our temperatures dropping down and it's a similar story across if we look at
08:55our overnight temperatures, Thursday night, markedly milder than average for the time
08:59of year and stay in that way as we go through the next couple of nights. But as we go towards
09:03the beginning of next week, we're going to see a slight change, slightly fresher air,
09:08clearer air, means a greater chance of seeing some frost as we go into next week, something
09:13we've not seen a huge amount of recently. But this is the 10-day trend and I've talked
09:18a lot about what's going to happen through the next few days, but now let's look further
09:22ahead. And while it's a relatively simple story and as much as the same high pressure
09:26that comes through as we go over this weekend is going to continue to dominate our weather
09:32as we go through much of next week, there's some uncertainty, but actually relatively
09:37high confidence in the forecast for next week that this high pressure will stick around.
09:41And what we often see with these kind of high pressures as well, forecast models suggest
09:47that fronts will come in from the West and they'll bash against this high and they'll
09:50try to break it down. But often we see the high winning out and actually it may take
09:56quite a while for a breakdown to develop. Nonetheless, there are going to be some fronts
10:01coming in from the Atlantic and they will hit against this high. But I think on Monday,
10:05we're going to be under the influence of that high pressure. And so it is looking largely
10:09fine and dry with our air coming around it. And so that plays a part in the fact that
10:13it's going to be a bit fresher than the preceding few days. If we go looking further ahead and
10:18Tuesday bonfire night also looks largely fine. Again, these fronts starting to come in from
10:23the West, maybe starting to see some impacts of that wet weather towards the far West of
10:28the UK possibly. But I think a greater chance that we're going to see the high pressure
10:33dominating and keeping our weather largely settled. If we go through the next couple
10:38of days through next week, you can start to see there's a greater chance of seeing those
10:42fronts making their way through. The most likely ECMWF regime for next Thursday has
10:47rain across north northwestern parts of the UK. But this is no guarantee. There's a reasonable
10:51chance that those fronts won't actually make their way much across the UK if at all. And
10:56so we could stay completely dry or largely dry at least. And in fact, if we look at the
11:00most likely regimes for both Friday, Saturday and also Sunday, they stick with some wet
11:06weather perhaps towards the north northwest of the UK, but most places staying largely
11:11dry and largely settled. Like I said, there is some uncertainty, but confidence is a little
11:15bit higher than usual. And so the generally fine picture or generally dry picture at least
11:20looks pretty likely. We just do need to bear in mind that there could be some fronts trying
11:24to come in from the West. However, I think that high pressure is likely to win. We can
11:29look at all that in a slightly different way. And if we look at our weather regime probabilities
11:34and if you've not seen this chart before, the orange and the reds indicate high pressure
11:38is most likely, which is what we have through the next few days. And in fact, as we go through
11:43much of next week, when you add the orange and reds together, high pressure is most likely
11:47compared to the blues, which indicate low pressure and high pressure, generally saying
11:52more settled weather. And so it looks pretty likely as we go through the next two weeks
11:55or so that high pressure is going to dominate. But some signs, particularly as we go further
12:01ahead, that we could see something of a breakdown developing. If we look at that in a different
12:06way and if we look at the probabilistic pressure trend and again, the reds indicating high
12:11pressure most likely, and that's what we have through the whole of the two week period.
12:15But the numbers do change 100 percent confidence as we go through the next couple of days through
12:19this coming weekend, even into the beginning and middle of next week, 100 percent confidence
12:23that we are going to see high pressure generally in control. But that figure does actually
12:29drop off a little bit as we go through towards the end of next week and towards Remembrance
12:33Sunday and beyond. That's what you'd expect. The further you go ahead in time, the less
12:38confidence you have. But still, it looks like it's going to be quite a slow progress or
12:43slow change to anything more unsettled. We can see that we are likely to see a change
12:49eventually to something breaking down from the west. If we look at our zonal trend, remember
12:54zonal trend shows us whether the air is going to be coming in from the west or the east.
12:58Now, blues indicating that a westerly flows most likely, which is kind of what we have
13:02at the moment. And then it switches to that easterly with the position of the highs. The
13:06high goes through change our wind direction. So we have that easterly developed as we go
13:09towards the latter part of next week and beyond. That's when we get that westerly developing
13:14again with those blues highlighted here. And so that goes in line with the idea that, yes,
13:19we are going to generally see high pressure in control through the next week or so, perhaps
13:23a little bit more. And then eventually we will see that breakdown coming in from the
13:27west. And so eventually we will say goodbye to the high. But for the time being, lots
13:32of fine settled weather around. Great news if you're heading out trick or treating through
13:36Thursday evening or if you're heading to any fireworks displays. Whatever your plans are
13:40this Halloween and this bonfire night, I do hope you have a great one. I'll see you again
13:44soon. Bye bye.