10 Day Trend 05/06/2024 – Turning drier for a time - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 05/06/2024.  Although high pressure has nearby this week, there has also been an area of low pressure to the north bringing plenty of showers. Next week the high pressure is expected to become dominant with dry conditions developing across most parts.  Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.

Transcript

00:00 Hello, very good day to you. High pressure hasn't been too far away this week, but I

00:05 think things are going to become more settled as we go into next week as high pressure becomes

00:09 more dominant. At the moment, the jet stream is running across the UK, slightly to the

00:14 south of us, which means we're on the northern side and that's the colder side. So we do

00:19 have some relatively cool air across many parts of the UK, which is why, although there

00:23 has been some fine weather around at the moment, temperatures are a little bit on the low side

00:28 and it is feeling a little bit fresher than it has done recently. And most of that's also

00:32 due to the fact that we have a bit of a northerly flow because of an area of low pressure just

00:36 to the north northeast of the UK, high pressure to the west trying to influence us. But it's

00:41 this low that's bringing a showery theme across the UK as we go through the rest of this week

00:47 and through much of the weekend. But that low does shift away towards Scandinavia as

00:51 we go through the weekend, and that does change the focus of where we're going to see the

00:55 showers most frequent because the wind direction will change a little bit as well. But let's

01:00 go back and look at the details that we can expect as we go through Thursday. And for

01:04 many, it's somewhat of a repeat performance to Wednesday. Really showers coming in from

01:09 the northwest in particular. So across Scotland, Northern Ireland here, they're going to be

01:13 pretty frequent. There could be some heavy ones, perhaps even some rumbles of thunder,

01:17 maybe even a little bit more sleet or snow over the highest peaks of the Scottish mountains

01:21 to further south. A few showers can't be ruled out for sure, but it is looking largely dry

01:26 and there will be some decent bright and sunny spells around a bit of a breeze. But the strongest

01:31 winds will be further north, and it's also in the north where it's going to feel coolest

01:35 temperatures low to mid teens, really at best a bit below average for the time of year.

01:40 Near normal further south, maybe a little bit on the fresh side, especially compared

01:44 to what we had last week. But as we go through the evening and overnight, we're going to

01:48 stick with the showers being most frequent across northern parts of the UK and then a

01:52 swathe of perhaps more persistent showery rain pushing its way southeastwards across

01:57 Scotland. And some of this could be a little bit on the heavy side. So some downpours are

02:01 possible as we go through the early hours of Friday morning towards the south, likely

02:05 to stick with largely dry and clear weather. And as a result, it is going to turn a bit

02:10 chilly with that cool air across us and some clear skies, temperatures dropping, some places

02:14 getting to low single figures. There may even be a touch of grass frost in a few places.

02:19 The showery rain then does push its way southeastwards and continue into parts of northern England

02:24 as we go through Friday. It does break up a little bit as it makes its way southeastwards

02:29 though, so turning slightly less frequent, less intense as it goes. All the time, though,

02:33 across southern parts, still a few showers are possible, but it's across northern areas

02:38 where we're going to see the most frequent showers feeding in still. And these are still

02:42 going to be heavy at times. Again, some rumbles of thunder, perhaps even a bit of hail and

02:47 some sleet or snow over the highest ground, perhaps in the south, even though there will

02:50 be fewer showers and further north, it may still be quite cloudy at times, so we should

02:54 still see some bright or sunny spells. And at this time of year in the sunshine, it won't

02:59 feel too bad, but temperatures won't. They're looking similar to Thursday, really low to

03:03 mid teens at best in the north, mid to high teens, possibly scraping low 20s towards the

03:08 south. As we go towards the weekend and we are going to still be heavily influenced by

03:13 the low pressure just to the north of the UK, it is shifting ever so slightly eastwards

03:17 as we go through Saturday, though, and like I said, that will change the focus of where

03:21 the showers are coming from. But we are going to continue to see some showers piling in

03:26 from the north northwest as we go through Saturday. So again, it's across northern parts

03:30 that we're going to see the most frequent, heaviest and thundery showers. And there still

03:35 could be some wintryness to them over the highest ground and all the time in southern

03:39 areas still one or two showers are possible, but they're going to be pretty fleeting, short

03:44 lived. Most of us will avoid them and on the whole, it is going to stay generally dry.

03:48 There'll be some bright or sunny skies around, but not necessarily water or blue skies, some

03:53 decent sunshine, but also some cloud coming and going as well and temperatures looking

03:57 similar to the preceding couple of days as well. That low pressure does eventually shift

04:02 away towards Scandinavia as we go into Sunday, and that will allow for a bit more of a northerly

04:07 flow to develop across the UK. And so the focus of the showers will change that little

04:11 bit as well. I think they're still going to be coming in from the north, but it may be

04:15 across more north northeastern parts of Scotland that we're going to see the heaviest, most

04:19 frequent showers. So slightly different from the preceding few days where it's mostly towards

04:24 the northwest. Nonetheless, northern areas, much much of Scotland, perhaps Northern Ireland,

04:29 parts of Northern England, seeing quite a few showers and they could still be heavy

04:33 at times, whereas further south, a greater chance of staying dry. One or two showers

04:37 possible, but generally a fine picture and still some variable amounts of clouds. So

04:41 most of us will see some sunshine breaking through at times, but it won't be sunny through

04:45 the whole day and temperatures similar to what we've seen recently. Like I said, the

04:49 worst of the rain or the heaviest rain will always be towards the north northwest of the

04:53 UK as we go through the rest of this week and then shifting towards more north northeastern

04:57 parts as we go through the weekend. But if we look at the 96 hour rainfall totals as

05:02 we go through Friday to Monday and both the Met Office, ECMWF and GFS America model are

05:09 all in fairly good agreement that there really will be some fairly wet weather across north

05:14 northwestern parts of the country. When we look at the totals through those four days,

05:19 meanwhile, towards the south, it's looking pretty dry. A few showers are possible, but

05:23 a generally dry picture, quite a contrast in terms of rainfall amounts across the country.

05:29 In terms of totals, well, we could see 20, possibly 30 millimetres in a day in some places,

05:35 not enough to cause any major issues, but it's just worth noting that there is going

05:39 to be quite that contrast with the largely wetter weather towards the north and northwest

05:44 in particular as we go through the next couple of days. But what happens thereafter? And

05:49 this is our probabilistic pressure trend for the next two weeks. The blues indicate when

05:54 low pressure is more likely, reds with high pressure and greens, which is what we're suggesting

05:59 for the next couple of days, is the neutral pattern, which is what we'd kind of expect

06:03 with high pressure to the west of us, low pressure to the north. We're in this somewhat

06:07 of a neutral pattern at the moment, perhaps something a bit more changeable with the low

06:11 pressure becoming a bit close to the UK for a time as we go into the weekend, hence the

06:15 blues. But then hints of high pressure building as we go through next week and that high pressure

06:20 to the west of us becoming more dominant as it pushes its way in. Remember, high pressure

06:25 means largely settled conditions, so it is likely to turn drier and with more fine weather

06:30 to be had, you'd expect a bit more sunshine too. If we look further ahead, this is the

06:34 10 day trend after all. And as we go towards the end of next week and the following weekend,

06:39 doesn't look like the high pressure will necessarily stick with us. It could, but it may become

06:44 a bit more changeable with low pressure, a bit more in control again as we go through

06:48 the next through the next weekend. After that, there are some signs that we could see high

06:53 pressure building again. I'm a bit more uncertain about that. So take that with a little bit

06:57 of a pinch of salt at this lead time. I think it's a bit more likely that it will actually

07:02 stay quite changeable as we go into the following week. But if we look at that in a different

07:06 way, and this is the ECMWF pressure anomaly chart for next week. So from Monday to Monday

07:12 and the pinky purples suggest that higher than average pressure is most likely across

07:18 the UK, particularly towards western parts. That goes with the idea that we could see

07:21 high pressure building in from the west. So the same high that we have to the west of

07:25 us at the moment could be building in from the west and becoming more dominant, which

07:30 will turn our weather more settled as the low pressure towards the north drifts away

07:34 towards Scandinavia. Now, this is the pattern looking at the week as a whole. So it's not

07:39 going to say the whole week will be like this. I think we could be a bit changeable, particularly

07:44 towards the northeast on Monday and then turning more settled as we go through the middle part

07:48 of the week before perhaps something a bit more changeable again as we go towards the

07:52 end of the week and the following weekend. But on the whole, next week does look like

07:57 it will be largely fine and with that largely dry. If we look at the rainfall anomaly charts

08:02 again from ECMWF and across much of the UK, it looks like it is going to be quite a bit

08:06 drier than average as well, which is what you would expect with high pressure firmly

08:11 in control. However, temperature wise, it looks like it's going to stay a little bit

08:17 below average for the time of year, not massively below. Worth bearing in mind during June,

08:21 even a degree or so below average, it should still feel pretty warm, especially in any

08:27 sunny skies, of which we should have a decent amount with that high pressure in control.

08:31 But it's not going to be especially hot. It's also worth bearing in mind we have some pretty

08:36 cool air across us at the moment, and so it's probably going to be a bit warmer than that

08:40 and feeling it, especially across northern parts where at the moment we have those blustery

08:45 winds, quite a bit of cloud and some fairly frequent showery rain around with a largely

08:50 drier calmer theme next week. Although those temperatures aren't going to rise up massively,

08:55 it is going to feel quite a bit warmer, I think, for many of us. But there is perhaps

09:00 some more changeable weather to come as we go towards the end of next week. Obviously,

09:04 we will be keeping you up to date as we get nearer the time. Thanks for watching. I'll

09:07 see you again soon. Bye bye.

09:08 [BLANK_AUDIO]

10 Day Trend 05/06/2024 – Turning drier for a time

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