Mahendra Ved, Veteran journalist and Bangladesh expert, speaks with Mayank Chhaya | SAM Conversation
Mahendra Ved, Veteran journalist and Bangladesh expert, speaks with Mayank Chhaya | SAM Conversation
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00:00For Bangladesh's ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, traumatic personal history has come
00:13full circle near almost 50 years after her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder
00:19of Bangladesh, was massacred along with most of her family in a military coup in 1975.
00:27When she was abroad and had to go into exile in India, at 76 she is once again in exile,
00:33this time it would appear without any likelihood of returning.
00:37As the country of 170 million people created by India in 1971, battles, grave and certainly
00:45in the aftermath, even while celebrating her departure, implications for India are serious
00:51and many.
00:53Among the biggest worries for New Delhi is whether Bangladesh would swing into China's
00:57orbit the way its once fraternal twin, Pakistan, has done.
01:03Hasina, who was exceptionally friendly towards India for the last 15 years, leaves in her
01:08wake some profound worries for New Delhi.
01:11My entire report spoke to senior journalist, writer and columnist Mahendra Vaid, who was
01:17once based in Bangladesh, to understand what lies ahead.
01:22Mahendra Vaid.
01:24Welcome to Mahindra Shire Reports, Mahendra, it's a great pleasure to have you.
01:31I'm sure you're aware that for Sheikh Hasina, its personal traumatic history coming full
01:38circle after nearly 50 years in 1975, her father and almost her entire family was massacred
01:45and then she was abroad then and then she went into exile in India.
01:49And once again, she is in exile.
01:51How do you look at the crisis in Bangladesh?
01:54Well, it is really, that was a different circumstances.
01:59Today, she is in Delhi on a different situation altogether.
02:06And the latest we hear is that she is trying to for asylum to United Kingdom and they have
02:15sort of put off the whole thing, saying that you cannot enter, you cannot arrive in UK
02:22and then seek asylum.
02:23For you, you should go to the safest place close by, which happens to be India.
02:31And I think there is some problem at the British end.
02:35There is also a report that she is trying Finland or Belgium, but we don't have any
02:42final thing.
02:44And she is not exactly unwelcome in Delhi, but her destination is Europe, where her relations
02:51are and she is not able to reach there.
02:57Do you think that for all practical purposes, her career is over?
03:02She is 76.
03:04She has created so much rage in Bangladesh, she has basically run away from that.
03:09What does she do now?
03:10Well, I suppose she lives with her family and spends the rest of her life.
03:16That is what because her son has already said that she will not return to politics.
03:22Now, he is the only son and coming from him, I guess he is based in US.
03:30That would be the probably the family council that keep out of politics.
03:36What is important is that the political legacy that started with her father way back in the
03:4350s, if you say the language movement of Bangladesh, of course, he was one of the leaders.
03:50And then you had the six point program in the 66.
03:55And then you had the entire freedom movement, where he was jailed and taken to Pakistan.
04:02Somehow he survived, came back as leader of the nation, was the president and the prime
04:08minister.
04:09And then he was unfortunately assassinated.
04:14And now his daughter has seen four terms, fifth term she was on.
04:21And now the situation is that she is forced to resign and fly out.
04:28For now, the country seems leaderless, even though they have freed Khaleda Zia, the former
04:35prime minister.
04:38At least for the foreseeable future, you have General Waqar-Uz-Zaman, the army chief in
04:43charge.
04:44Khaleda Zia would be, if at all, a passive leader in the sense she is also ailing.
04:50She is a year older than Sheikh Hasina and she has arthritis and a whole lot of other
04:56problems she's had.
04:58And her complaint was that Hasina did not allow her proper treatment.
05:03But that we have no way of finding yes or no to that.
05:07But she would be a symbolic leader, just the way she started a career after her husband
05:14was assassinated in 81, President Zia-ur-Rehman, I'm talking about.
05:20She began as a symbolic leader and then emerged as a politician.
05:26She won the election once, twice.
05:29So it's a different ballgame today.
05:32But leaving out Khaleda Zia, there is probably nobody who can take charge.
05:38But that would mean that at least for the foreseeable future, the army chief General
05:44Waqar-Uz-Zaman will stay at the helm.
05:49He seems to be the man in charge today and he is talking of asking people to keep faith
05:58in the army, etc.
06:00And also he is going to have an interim government.
06:07But the way past record has been such and the way things occur when the military intervenes,
06:13is that military calls the shots.
06:16Do you see him as, I mean, the reports that I read here is that he is often seen as someone
06:23who has pro-Beijing proclivities.
06:26What is your sense of him and his world view?
06:30General, well, he has been, whatever you get to see, he is a career soldier, infantryman.
06:39The interesting part that emerged only now in the last 24 hours is that he is a distant
06:45relation of the Hasina.
06:48His wife, he is married to the daughter of former army chief General Mustafizur Rahman,
06:57who had worked, who was army chief during Hasina's time, 97, 98, around that time.
07:05And Mrs. Zaman and Sheikh Hasina are distant cousins.
07:12I see.
07:13In a way, you know, it's somebody she, Hasina, came to trust, probably because he is related
07:20to her and probably because, and he had just taken over in June as the army chief.
07:27So obviously there was an element of trust.
07:30I mean, something that you see happening across the subcontinent in Pakistan.
07:35The politician trusts the general and then at some stage the general casts aside the
07:40politician from Ayub down to Musharraf or General Bajwa, but that's a different story.
07:48We can continue the discussion on Bangladesh.
07:51What is it about these two countries on either side of India that they are so prone to such
07:58extraordinary goings-on so frequently?
08:00See, the military culture in what was Pakistan has always been strong.
08:07The Punjab, the northwest frontier, it was always strong.
08:12Bangladesh had a different culture and that's one of the reasons Bangladesh separated.
08:19But yes, or you go a little further to the east, Myanmar has had any number of generals
08:25ruling.
08:26In fact, more generals have ruled Myanmar than the civilians.
08:33It is there, it's part of the society, polity there.
08:40Now in India, we have escaped it.
08:43We don't have a different political system.
08:47What is your sense about the role that the Islamist with the help of Pakistan's ISI may
08:53have played at least behind the scenes, even though it began as a student's protest, but
08:59I'm sure there was something going on behind the scenes as well.
09:03Well, something has gone on all the time.
09:06ISI never left Bangladesh.
09:09It worked through people within the army, in the madrasas, in the social circles and
09:17the burgeoning business class, the middle class that has become so aspirational that
09:24they if they do not find a leader acceptable, they can discard it.
09:30This is partly the, this partly shows in the protest, the way her house has been burgled,
09:37the way things have been, furniture has been taken over.
09:42Even fish has been taken away from her kitchen.
09:45I mean, those things leave us out of the mass frenzy.
09:49It is an indicator of people discarding a leader.
09:56And from what reports you get, it is bloodless in the sense that nobody shed tears about
10:02Haseena going. The same had happened when Mujib had gone.
10:07So this is a part of the change that people get used to it.
10:14They get stunned, slowly people get to, life moves on.
10:19What are the implications for India?
10:21Because India has obviously serious problems with the instability in Bangladesh now.
10:27Well, India problems are very many.
10:32For 15 years, India got used to a friendly person who never lost an opportunity to thank
10:40India and the Indian leadership for helping them in the 71 war and freedom.
10:47That got used to it and probably there was no second alternate leadership.
10:54I am not sure if there was any serious thinking about finding a leader other than Haseena.
11:02So to that extent, you are in a bit of a situation, a bad situation.
11:09On the ground, there are going to be lots of problems because you have a 4,300 kilometer
11:17border and border management between any two neighbors is very, very serious.
11:23There has been smuggling of goods, smuggling of cattle, smuggling of humans, people moving
11:31around, drugs and in adverse time when Khaleda Zia was president, a prime minister, even
11:39arms. So those things have happened and as you know, Bangladesh, along with India, is
11:46part of that christen where the drug movement takes place.
11:52So all that now, you know, there was, you had a friendly government on both sides.
11:57They worked on it.
11:59Now we have a government, you have a government in Bangladesh, you will have that will
12:05always remain suspicious.
12:08I have reminded of the years immediately after Mujib was assassinated.
12:13There was total, total indifference, hostility to India because they took it, assumed that
12:21India had supported Mujib and anybody other than Mujib was not acceptable.
12:27Zia-ul-Rehman tried to create his own nationalism, which was independent of India.
12:34And people had lots of complaints about India, which otherwise they were played down.
12:44Now that about talking of the current situation, you will have the Ganga Water Treaty
12:50coming up for renewal very soon.
12:53And well, it was discussed during when Haseena met Prime Minister Modi that it would be
13:00worked out at various stages.
13:03It's not an easy treaty and both sides would want more water.
13:07So that is one thing.
13:09Tista Water, there are 53 systems in Bengal, which both the countries share.
13:16These two major systems are involved.
13:19Tista, Bangladesh has been clamoring for a very long time.
13:24It has not worked partly because West Bengal opposes it.
13:31Now, the Chinese wanted to step in and India was justifiably finicky about it because that
13:40area is just 23 kilometers broad between North Bengal, what is called Chicken's Neck.
13:48And India is very finicky about Chinese coming in physically.
13:54The Chinese were prepared to invest, but Haseena came to India and she worked out things.
14:03And India accepted all those offers, which would include cleaning up the river, dredging
14:09of the river, creating enough situation where more water flow is there, which can be shared.
14:17Now, all those things, after all that, when she went to Beijing, Beijing cold shouldered
14:23her according to all the reports.
14:25They did not like the idea of her going to India first.
14:29And now, of course, in the new situation, how Beijing will look at Bangladesh, how they
14:36will want investment.
14:37Now, these are things, this is an open, wide open situation where there are going to be
14:44problems.
14:45So, we have taken border, we have taken water system and diplomatically, there are also
14:52going to be problems.
14:53Now, about the water treaty of Ganga, if you recall in the 90s, Begum Khaleda's government
15:04always went to United Nations and in the speech of the UN General Assembly, India's uncooperative
15:12approach on Ganga water and Baraka Barrage, all that was raised thereafter, if you recall.
15:18So, all those things will come.
15:20Now, when the treaty comes from renewal, which is very soon, these problems will again get
15:27exacerbated.
15:28But do you see this as a failure of the external affairs ministry to anticipate such a dramatic
15:35turn of events in Bangladesh?
15:38Well, if there were indications, there is no way to find out.
15:44In fact, Haseena was in Delhi talking to the top Indian leadership twice.
15:49She came in June and she came in July again.
15:52Now, no way to find out if she discussed any of the things, if she gave any indication
16:01or if Indians cautioned her, what kind of trouble she could be facing.
16:06We have no idea, actually.
16:08I mean, just the way Sheikh Mujib, he was specifically warned that there was a threat
16:13to his life.
16:14He ignored it.
16:16Now, if such a thing was discussed with Haseena, we do not know how she reacted.
16:23If at all, we do not know.
16:26I see.
16:27To conclude, Mahendra, how do you think India should play it at this stage?
16:32They don't have a choice other than working with whoever takes over for the time being.
16:37And if that, I mean, if it is the army chief, they'll have to live with it.
16:42What do you think India can do at this stage?
16:45Well, India has dealt with army chiefs in Pakistan, also with Ziauddin Rahman in Bangladesh
16:53or Arshad, General Arshad.
16:55So, there is no option but to deal with whoever is in power, number one.
17:00Number two, there will be pinpricks.
17:05And that element of mistrust is bound to be there.
17:10And in the third world, in the third fora and elsewhere also, these issues are going
17:17to get exacerbated.
17:20But India cannot ignore a smaller neighbor.
17:23What will happen is that whatever India says or does, much of the world will say, oh, you
17:29are the big brother.
17:30You are the big country.
17:31You should be more giving.
17:34Those things will be there.
17:35And Bangladesh can always raise this small country syndrome, small country sympathy.
17:43That will always be there.
17:44At that size, you cannot miss out.
17:47You cannot wish away.
17:50Those sort of problems will be there.
17:52Let's see how things work out.
17:55And before I let you go, one last thing.
17:57How do you think the US and China would treat it in terms of a strategic playground that
18:03Bangladesh may become?
18:06Well, actually, another way of looking at it is Pakistan and China.
18:14That alliance is always there.
18:16Both tend to benefit in the new situation.
18:20The United States situation, I'm unable to understand why they were so critical of Haseena.
18:27I mean, in the name of democracy.
18:29And they have been lobbying for Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate.
18:38And it's a long story why Muhammad Yunus wasn't liked by Haseena.
18:45He was also put in jail at one time.
18:48And he was on TV yesterday.
18:51And he was, well, I use the word exulting.
18:54He was exulting at the changes.
18:57He was extremely critical of Sheikh Haseena, as it is to be expected.
19:02And he was still looking forward, but he had no clear idea of what was coming.
19:07And he had nothing to offer in that sense.
19:11One subject that we didn't touch on was the rise of Islamist forces.
19:18You have talked about it.
19:21How do you look at it?
19:22Do you think it could become another Pakistan in that sense?
19:27Well, comparisons are odious.
19:28But even in the best of days during East Pakistan days and later when
19:33Begum Zia was in power in Bangladesh.
19:38These Islamist groups, the madrasas and, you know, the tribals from northeast.
19:47That is the Assam and Nagas and Bezos.
19:50They were active.
19:51Their camps were running on the border within Bangladesh.
19:57Those sort of things can start again.
20:01What Haseena undid, what all she helped with India, it can resume again.
20:08And there is always a state of denial, like what we are seeing across the subcontinent in Kashmir.
20:15So these problems are bound to be there.
20:18And this is going to have a very serious impact on the whole of east and northeast of India.
20:25There's no doubt about that.