Greg Bedard and Nick Cattles discuss the latest happenings around the New England Patriots ahead of their first of two matchups with the Buffalo Bills. As the losses pile on, do the Krafts realize that they no longer have the benefit of the doubt? Are they losing the trust of the fans? Then, how valid are the Drake Maye/Josh Allen comparisons?
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00:00This is the Gregg Bedard Patriots Podcast with Nick Cavins.
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00:31Alright, before we get to the Bills and the Patriots, of course, we will run through our headlines.
00:36And Gregg, I want to start with Adam Schefter. He was on ESPN this morning.
00:40I believe it was the show Get Up.
00:42And he mentioned that the Crafts are planning on keeping Mayo with three games to go.
00:47I saw some people reacting to this story as if it was some kind of bomb dropped by Schefter.
00:53I didn't take it that way. When you say that somebody is planning on doing something,
00:59it's like saying you have the intention of doing something.
01:02It doesn't mean that you're going to do that thing. Did you take it the same way?
01:06Yeah, exactly. And I also heard Schefter on EEI yesterday, and he basically said the exact same thing.
01:13And he talked about, you know, I think he was asked about the potential of Vrabel here.
01:19And he says it's a moot point right now because as of today, and I agree with him,
01:24and I think we said this the other day, I said, as of today, you know, Gerard Mayo is going to be back for a second season.
01:32You know, if you don't want to play fantasy football with Mike Vrabel and things like that,
01:36even though I do think it's part of the calculus with the Crafts, or it better be, or it's a dereliction of duty on their part.
01:45I agree with them. I mean, like I said, like, you know, going into the final four games,
01:49I said it was like 90 percent that Gerard Mayo was going to be back, you know, after Sunday and the Cardinals.
01:55It's probably like 80 percent. Where are we in three weeks from now?
02:00I don't know. I've heard from other people who, you know, know what they're talking about.
02:05They think it's more 50-50 at this point. I disagree with that.
02:09And, you know, everybody knows I've been short.
02:11Let me stop you right there. I want to make sure we're clear on this.
02:14The other people you're talking about, are those people in the building or are those other writers and people within the game?
02:21Are those within the NFL?
02:23Not writers. I would say NFL league sources.
02:26OK.
02:27Having conversations with people over the last week, they think it's closer to 50-50 right now.
02:35I disagree with that from all the information that I have on hand.
02:39And everybody knows that I've been, I wouldn't say I'm a Mayo critic.
02:44I'm just doing my job. My job is to do due diligence on this organization.
02:49I was the only one that looked into Gerard Mayo and his role on this defense even before he got the job.
02:56I don't think anybody else has done any of that work.
03:01And that has continued into this year.
03:03And, you know, I will continue to do what I think the people, especially the subscribers at Boston Sports Journal, by the way, $10 coupon holidays through 1231.
03:17I will continue to do, you know, be villagent on their behalf because I think that's what they deserve as fans of this franchise.
03:28But, yeah, I mean, I totally agree with you.
03:32Like the Schefter report told me nothing.
03:34I mean, you know, he even couches it saying like, you know, I don't know what he said this morning, but, you know,
03:41says sort of things like, you know, John Mara intended to bring back Joe Judge and even announced that he was coming back.
03:46And then two days later, Joe Judge was fired.
03:48I mean, these, you know, John Mara intends to bring back Brian Dayball and Joe Sheen.
03:54He said that, I don't know, a month ago.
03:56Is that going to happen after the season?
03:57I don't know.
03:58And even Schefter admitted a lot of things can happen towards the end of the season to change the landscape.
04:06So, yeah, I agree with you.
04:09I thought your guy, Bert Breer, was awesome on Sunday night with Felger.
04:13He was the first guy and it was immediate.
04:16Great, great job by Bert when he compared the Joe Judge stuff to Mayo and some of the stuff when Judge went on his historical,
04:24like 11 minute rant or whatever at the when the Giants had come out and said that Judge was safe.
04:31And Judge just hurt himself to the point where he was no longer safe.
04:35And I thought Bert did a great job of immediately going to that example and saying, look at the Giants and what happened there.
04:41And what happened in Arizona in that postgame press conference with the whole you said it, I didn't.
04:46This could end up being a Joe Judge moment for Mayo.
04:50Well, let's move to Mayo's offensive coordinator, Greg Alex Van Pelt.
04:54Van Pelt spoke with the media today.
04:56And you and I have talked about this a lot and so have a lot of other people following this team and covering this team.
05:03Drake may not running the football.
05:05Why did he not run the football in Arizona?
05:08They had two shots to do that third and short, fourth and short.
05:11They didn't do it.
05:13The Rams at the two yard line opportunity weeks ago, they didn't do it.
05:18And we've all been trying to figure out why that is.
05:20You know, is Van Pelt saying no to Mayo?
05:23Is he is he going rogue?
05:26I don't think any of us believe Alex Van Pelt's a guy that goes rogue.
05:30So today Van Pelt was asked about it and he said he was focused on keeping May out of harm's way and getting him through the next three weeks.
05:39Is that a way of just saying, look, we're looking at where we're looking big picture here.
05:45It's about the health of the young man.
05:47We don't want to do anything completely unnecessary for a three win team.
05:51So we're not going to mess around safety first.
05:55Yeah, and I don't like those comments at all.
05:59I think I understand where he's coming from.
06:02And I assume this is organizationally and it sort of reminds me a little bit.
06:07And I'm sure Elliot Wolfe is in there somewhere because it does.
06:10It reminds me a little bit of Ted Thompson and Green Bay like Ted.
06:14Ted was an extreme worry wart about injuries to the point where like they didn't play like anybody in the preseason and things like that.
06:23Put people in bubble wrap.
06:25You know, I I just disagree with that.
06:30I think it's disappointing.
06:31I think, you know, you're trying to either you're trying to build something here or you're not.
06:36Like in trying to build something means winning winning games or, you know, like we've talked about with guys like whether it's, you know, Dan Campbell or Jonathan Gannon last year or Bill Parcells when he was first here, Bill Belichick in his first year.
06:53Like, you know, winning games at the end of the season sets the table.
06:59It buys you buy in.
07:03And also, like, I remember I forget who it was.
07:05It might have been Bert was talking about.
07:07He talked to Jared Goff and that first year with Dan Campbell, you know what they were able to do at the end of next year.
07:15Like he talked about how like they they use that as fuel like the next year.
07:20Like they remembered how they could do that because they got off to a rough start in Dan Campbell's second season.
07:26Then they got on a roll.
07:27And that's the lines that we see now.
07:29And Goff talked about how it was all it all came from what they did at the end of the first year.
07:35Right.
07:36So to make these.
07:38These choices for one player, I understand the theory.
07:42I just to me, it's another example of this franchise, this football operation, like, you know, saying one thing but doing another.
07:53And to me, it lends to there's not a whole lot of credibility with what they're doing on the football side.
08:00And to me, it's it's it's it's disappointing.
08:05Phil Perry brought this up today on Twitter, and he went back to the Mayo interview on the Greg Hill show on Monday.
08:12And this is just the most recent example, Greg, of inconsistent messaging.
08:18And when you look at the Drake May question, Gerard goes on Greg Hill and he says, well, he's out of the concussion protocol and pretty much, you know, we're wide open.
08:28He can run the football like he can QB sneak.
08:30We're ready to go.
08:31And and so it paints it as, no, we're not trying to be overprotective of May.
08:38And then AVP today sounds like they're trying to be overprotective of May.
08:43So my question is, what the hell is going on?
08:47Why is there not?
08:49Do you think it's an issue where there's not clear communication or direct communication between Mayo and AVP on how to handle all of these different questions posed to them?
08:59Or is it just they're not on the same page and they have these conversations, but for whatever reason, they handle it in completely different ways?
09:10Well, first, let me say this, because I've heard a lot.
09:12You know, everybody brings up the assistant or no head coach offense comment that that Mayo had in the preseason.
09:22People like take him literally.
09:25I do not.
09:27And just to give you an example, and we've talked about it here before on the podcast, when Josh McDaniels was here, Josh McDaniels was basically head coach offense of this team.
09:38But still, there was a head coach of the team who gave direction not only in the game plan, but but during the game, how that relates to this.
09:50I think that.
09:52I don't think that Gerard Mayo really understood what was going on between Belichick and McDaniels.
09:57Maybe it was just, you know, what what he saw from afar.
10:02But to me, this speaks to I think that Gerard Mayo is a complete delegator in terms of of what he's doing as head coach of the Patriots.
10:11I think he completely delegates.
10:13I don't think he leads at all.
10:15I don't think he gives his coordinators a direction.
10:17I don't think he helps them with the game plans.
10:19I don't think he helps them with in-game decisions.
10:22I think he is a complete CEO, delegator, head coach.
10:26And and I think part of it is it allows him to deflect blame to other people, not to the media, because he'll always tell the media like it's my decision and it stops with me or, you know, what have you.
10:41But I think, you know, behind closed doors, I think it's typical CYO or CYA corporate cover your ass bullcrap.
10:50And I just think it's not right.
10:53I think it leads to a football product that we see on the field that is goes in completely different directions.
11:00And it's because there is not unified leadership on this team.
11:04And that indeed starts and starts and stops with Gerard Mayo.
11:09It's a big problem of of the crap process that the crafts went through back in January and February, Greg, because the stuff that you're talking about.
11:18And you've mentioned this from the very beginning.
11:20You were in on this before, I think anybody, this idea that Gerard Mayo was going to be a CEO.
11:27That's how he was going to run the program.
11:29And here's the issue.
11:31When you don't have the right process, when you don't correctly or rightly vet the people that you are going to give these jobs to, this is what happens.
11:43Because if you're the crafts and instead of falling in love with Gerard Mayo in an airport because he's holding a brotherhood meeting with a bunch of people that went to Israel, sit him down and vet him.
11:56Gerard, what is your vision as a head coach?
11:59How are you going to do the job?
12:01We're going to get rid of Bill Belichick, who is pretty much a micromanager.
12:07Are you going to be the same way?
12:10And so if Gerard says, well, I believe in delegating and I believe in this and I believe in that, I don't think he would say I'm going to be a CEO.
12:17But if he gives you the idea of I'm going to be hands off for a lot of this kind of stuff, then that leads you to the question, if you're the crafts, what does the staff look like?
12:29And are we prepared?
12:31Are we ready to get the right people around Gerard Mayo?
12:34Because if I find out through the vetting process he's going to be a CEO, then I'm not comfortable with Demarcus Covington, first time defensive coordinator, and Alex Van Pelt's first time calling plays on a weekly basis since 2009.
12:47This all goes back to the process and how bad it was by the crafts and how they failed to vet anybody.
12:55It was brutal.
12:56And we called it in real time because anybody who's followed the NFL could see it from a mile away.
13:02So when you don't vet and you don't ask the questions, you don't get the answers that you need to make the right decisions.
13:09And this is just another reminder of that.
13:12Speaking of Van Pelt, he says, Greg, that he has not spoken to the crafts.
13:18But his door is always open.
13:22I'm starting to get this feeling.
13:25I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, I believe.
13:27I did a podcast on this at the Nick Cattle Show on YouTube, baby.
13:33Little cha-ching promotion there.
13:35I'm worried that AVP is going to be the scapegoat.
13:40And I've mentioned Covington's going to get protected by Mayo because they're friends.
13:47And I'm starting to get that feeling.
13:50And I'm telling you right now, Greg, if the Patriots fire Alex Van Pelt, but they keep Mayo and they keep Covington, that will be the weakest thing that they could do as an organization.
14:05And I, for one, will be infuriated if that's what they do.
14:10Should I be prepared for that?
14:12Should we all be prepared, Greg, for AVP to be the scapegoat, get fired, and these other guys staying?
14:17It's a great question.
14:19I think somebody is going to be offered up.
14:23And I think you're right.
14:25I don't think it's going to be Covington.
14:27And I completely agree with the point that you just made about Mayo being a CEO head coach.
14:36If that's indeed what he was going to do.
14:38And then again, maybe this was another area where he pulled the bull over the craft's eyes in terms of what he was going to bring to the table as head coach.
14:48If they were going to do that, he needed bona fide coordinators like a Josh McDaniels type on defense.
14:58Man, I don't even know.
14:59I mean, I'll just say like a Brian Flores type.
15:03And that didn't come close to happening.
15:06I don't think that's going to come close to happening this offseason if they start doing this piecemeal bullshit like the Jets would do.
15:14Just reading that Woody Johnson story in The Athletic, which is just ridiculous.
15:22I wonder if Jonathan Kraft has asked about Madden ratings on the Patriots' potential offseason transactions.
15:29But that's where we're headed to.
15:32I mean, my point is like you're headed to Jetsville if this is what they're going to do in terms of piecemeal.
15:38We're going to fire Alex Van Pelt now who we're going to bring in, blah, blah, blah.
15:42Like it's just it's it's ridiculous.
15:47Oh, boy.
15:50This podcast gives me a stomachache sometimes.
15:52All right.
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17:30All right.
17:31You brought up a question in the email today before the pod that I found interesting, and it's whether or not the Crafts realize how bad they've been.
17:40And you brought up several examples over the past five, six years, really going back to Brady leaving and, you know, whether or not the Crafts acknowledge how bad it's been.
17:53Do you think, Greg?
17:54Do you think they realize how bad it has truly been since Brady walked out the door?
18:01I don't, Nick.
18:02I think I think Jonathan does.
18:05I think Robert.
18:07Look, I have a great deal of respect for Robert.
18:12You know, I don't want to say he's he's out of it.
18:15I just don't think he's.
18:17I don't think he's as based in reality as he used to be certain.
18:21I mean, look, you know, he's 80 something.
18:22I mean, I don't expect him to be the same owner that he was when he, you know, when he bought the team, you know, where, you know, he wasn't perfect either then.
18:33But, you know, he certainly had a passion and, you know, he had an ear to what's going on outside.
18:38I think there's too many examples from, you know, Robert's out of touch press conference at the league meetings last year that led me to write a column saying, like, look, you know, Jonathan needs to step to the forefront and speak for them.
18:52Organization because, you know, like hard questions need to be asked.
18:57And, you know, Robert being up there at his age and also like he's deflecting stuff.
19:03Like I remember I had, I asked him a pointy question at the end when, you know, after, you know, Stacey James said, you know, that the previous question was the last question.
19:12And I said, you know, cause he, a question had been asked about the dynasty, but I followed up about, you know, the way the fans felt about how Belichick was portrayed and Kraft didn't even answer it.
19:23And he talked about Tom Brady day, like, you know, like the whole thing was a, was a debacle.
19:31And then you go, you know, and then speaking of the dynasty, you know, I know Robert loved that thing, you know, before it came out.
19:40I know he showed it to some friends and he taught, he called it like, look, let's watch my documentary.
19:46He thought it was the cat's meow.
19:48He thought it was incredible.
19:50And then it came out and it, and it, you know, it was a lead balloon that just shows you how he's not really based in reality anymore.
19:59Or I'm just saying he doesn't either.
20:02He's not understanding the mood of the fan base or either.
20:08He's obviously he's not getting it.
20:10And I don't think he has people around him anymore.
20:14Or I don't think he's soliciting opinion that where people are giving him the real situation, like giving him reality, like Robert, you need to understand what's going on.
20:23I don't think he's getting that anymore from anybody.
20:27And I think that's probably part of Jonathan's frustration.
20:31But my point is, I was thinking about this the other day.
20:34I think one of the essential questions about like what happens with this franchise right now, and we've talked about the stakes.
20:41I don't think the stakes have ever been higher for this organization than right now.
20:46And the decisions that they make going into next year.
20:49Um, you know, I, I just don't, I, I, I think Robert who still has the final say in the final call on everything.
20:59I think Robert still walks around thinking like six times Superbowl champions were this, were that.
21:06Remember at the league meetings, he didn't even, he, he hadn't, he didn't know about the NFL PA poll like previously.
21:13Like it wasn't the grades were bad that year.
21:16They were bad the year before.
21:18And he didn't know they didn't do anything about it.
21:21That just shows you the level of detachment from reality that he has at this point right now.
21:27And, you know, I'm not saying he's senile or anything like that.
21:30No, I Robert.
21:31Still really good at what he does.
21:33I just don't think he, he, he has his ear to the grindstone.
21:37Like, you know, he used to, or at least the feel of the fan base, he still walks around and I'm sure when he goes to these stadiums and you see him walk out and he's signing autographs.
21:46And I'm sure he's hearing all these nice things from the fans, but that's not reality.
21:52That's an altered state of reality.
21:53And, you know, you just look at it, Nick from the fans, the fans blame the crafts.
22:01All right.
22:02Oh, they blame bill a little bit, but the craft, the crafts are blamed for Brady leaving how the final years of bill happened.
22:11Um, the firing of bill, whether it should have been done a year before or wasn't justified, certainly with, you know, what we've been left with.
22:19Uh, like I said, the dynasty documentary, um, the Mayo succession plan, you know, putting that in contract while bill's still there and the dysfunction that that led to on the coaching staff.
22:31Um, you know, to me, he, they are on a colossal losing streak, the crafts with the fan base.
22:39I think in, we talked about the NBC sports, Boston poll said like 90% of the fans want Mayo fired.
22:45And if they don't wake up, if they're, let's just say they retain Mayo for next year, if they're not right.
22:53And Mike Vrabel goes someplace and wins.
22:57Ben Johnson goes someplace and wins and Mayo is a complete disaster.
23:02And it looks like it does this year, even with a very promising quarterback.
23:08Like, I think the potential is there that a lot of people are just like, that's it.
23:12I'm out.
23:13I'm out until Jonathan takes over or, or what has you like?
23:18I think, I think it is very tenuous right now with the fan base.
23:22I don't think, and I, to get back to your question, I don't think that Robert has any clue.
23:27I don't think people are telling him if, if, if people were telling him the reality, the boots on the ground, what's going on with the fan base.
23:36They would absolutely be leaving it more open publicly that they're going to take a critical eye at Gerard Mayo and make decisions for next year.
23:45But I just don't think that's happening.
23:49You'd imagine that Jonathan is part of that circle, right?
23:52Yeah, he has to be.
23:53You saw it on Sunday.
23:54He's sitting right next to his father as he's, you know, unhappy with the play calling.
24:01If Jonathan realizes that Mayo is a miss.
24:04If he's sitting there right now, Greg, and he's like, this has not worked.
24:08I don't believe it's going to work.
24:10We have a chance at say, hypothetically, Mike Vrabel.
24:14Is there any chance on God's green earth that at this point, Jonathan can push Robert to relent and say, you know what, Jonathan, you're right.
24:27I did it my way.
24:29This has not gone well.
24:31If Vrabel is out there or somebody else that they might be interested in, I think you're right, Jonathan.
24:38And let's let's go down that road.
24:41Is there any chance that Jonathan can get to his father if Jonathan feels that way?
24:47I think there's a chance.
24:50Yes.
24:51How great of it?
24:52I think that's the essential question.
24:54And this is the essential question of like, you know, where is this franchise going?
24:58Like, you know, are they going to be open to that?
25:01Or are they do they still smell their farts and think that every decision that they've ever made has been roses and has led to, you know, you know, all the success of this organization?
25:12You know, do do you think they've ever had a dose of reality in terms of like, you know, this was really a lot of a lot of it was Tom Brady.
25:21I mean, we we know about, you know, the fight for the especially Bob to to to get credit for what's gone on in this organization to be right there with Brady and Belichick.
25:33And, you know, we all know that's not reality, but that's the reality that that that Robert Kraft lives in.
25:40But I would say yes, there's a chance.
25:43I don't think it's great.
25:45I think that like we talked about, I think that Robert Kraft lives in an altered state of of ownership at this point in time and doesn't really understand what's really going on outside his building.
26:00One more question before we get to Pat's bills, Drake May, Josh Allen.
26:06We brought up the football operations overlord idea that Tommy Curran brought up via Mike McCann.
26:15Is that it? Yeah.
26:16Yep. I nailed it twice.
26:18Hopefully Mike listens to this.
26:20I got your name right, Mike.
26:23We looked at that more from like a day to day kind of thing.
26:27Let me ask you this.
26:29If Jonathan can't get Robert to put the bullet in the back of the head of Gerard Mayo, so to speak, old school, you know, old, old school, like Mafia movie style, right?
26:41I'm talking about his career, not him.
26:42You know, does the football ops idea overlord?
26:48Does that make sense?
26:49Not on a day to day basis, but just to bring somebody in and go, you know what?
26:53We didn't vet this thing.
26:55We effed up.
26:56Let's let's go bring in Thomas Dimitrov.
27:00Scott Pioli.
27:01The Jets are doing this with, you know, the 33rd team and Tana bomb and whatever the hell else.
27:05Is it possible the Patriots go that route where Robert says, you know what?
27:09I'm not comfortable yet.
27:11Ending Gerard Mayo's tenure as a head coach.
27:13But maybe it is a good idea to go out and get somebody in the game of football that can go through the process and say, all right, this is what's going on.
27:23Because Tommy Tommy Curran brought this up on early edition.
27:27The idea of someone coming in and vetting.
27:29But then he also talked about, you know, just kind of being the overlord and moving forward with that person.
27:34What if it was a for hire job this offseason?
27:37You come in.
27:38Tell us what the hell is going on.
27:40Give us suggestions.
27:41What would you do?
27:42Do you think that's possible?
27:45So I hadn't thought of it.
27:48You know, and especially if you're Jonathan and you're not getting through to the pops.
27:53The prospect of bringing somebody else in.
27:57That Robert respects that.
28:00I mean, basically, you'd be stacking the deck.
28:02If you're Jonathan, they'd be like, all right, I need to find somebody to bring a man, somebody who agrees with me.
28:07So now he'll listen more.
28:10So I would be more open to that idea than I was in the last podcast.
28:17But I will say this, Nick.
28:21Robert's already been doing a lot of this.
28:24As we talked about, you know, the midseason stuff, the Breer report, you know, some of my reporting on it.
28:32Robert and Jonathan have both been talking to a lot of people.
28:37And like I said at the time, it wasn't just about supporting the rookie quarterback.
28:44It was about Gerard Mayo.
28:47Does this have a chance?
28:49Have I screwed this up?
28:52Can we, if we stick with him, can we support him better?
28:56Who can we bring in?
28:58Like, it's been all those comments.
28:59So, you know, a Tommy point for Bob Kraft in terms of he's already been doing a lot of this homework.
29:07So maybe that mitigates the need for somebody.
29:10I'm sure he's talked to.
29:12And I don't know who he's talked to, but I'm sure he's talked to the likes of Pioli, Dimitrov.
29:20So maybe some of the other front office people, you know, maybe Casario, maybe they had a conversation.
29:26Hey, Nick, how'd you build this with the with the coach?
29:30How'd you build this with the rookie quarterback?
29:32Like Dave, they've been doing they've been having a lot of these conversations.
29:36And so that that gives me some solace.
29:41But, you know, we'll see what happens.
29:46The problem is, is no matter what anybody says to Robert, let's use the Houston example.
29:52Yeah, you brought in D'Amico Ryans, and that's a really kind of similar vibe, right?
29:58D'Amico Ryans, former NFL player, former NFL linebacker.
30:01He comes in and, you know, you could look at the Houston model.
30:05The problem is D'Amico as a defensive coordinator before taking the head coach job.
30:10The problem is D'Amico had a network of people like Bobby Slowick that he could take with him and has become a very good offensive quarter.
30:19So it's just I did a podcast yesterday and hopefully some people check it out where I went through every option the crafts have as far as the staff and what they could do.
30:30And it's just it's such a layered conversation.
30:33It's difficult because there's so many different things that that truly get in the way of finding the path towards relevance and winning football in 2025 and keeping Gerard Mayo here because there's just the lack of the network and some of the things that we've talked about.
30:52So Nick Casario can say anything that he wants until he's blue in the face about, well, yeah, D'Amico Ryans did this.
30:57D'Amico Ryans did that.
30:58But Ryans had the ability to do that.
31:01Gerard, he doesn't have a network.
31:04He doesn't he doesn't know a lot of people throughout the game.
31:07So you're again stuck with relying on Elliott Wolfe and the crafts or this football overlord coming in and finding the coordinators to replace the current core.
31:18You're in the same spot you were back in January and February, but only tougher because you at least had DeMarcus Covington, who was already on the staff that you could promote.
31:28You're just running around in circles like a cat chasing its tail.
31:32All right.
31:33Let's get to game time before we get to this Bill's Patriots game.
31:37NFL season, you got to be at the games, even at Gillette, even with what's going on with the Patriots, you got to be there.
31:44Like, that's it's fun.
31:46It's a great environment.
31:47Get out there.
31:48Enjoy this.
31:49Enjoy yourself.
31:50I think the weather is going to be pretty good for the rest of the year.
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32:49What time is it?
32:50Game time.
32:51That's defense versus Bill's offense on Sunday.
32:54Greg, tell us about it.
32:56Good luck.
32:59I mean, they're just a wagon at this point.
33:02I mean, they have scored.
33:05Let's see.
33:06Going back to the Titans game in October, 34 points, 31 points, 30, 30, 30, 35, 42, 48.
33:16Josh Allen is at the peak of his powers.
33:19You know, and even he doesn't have, like, you know, great people around him.
33:25I mean, you know, Amari Cooper has been okay since the trade.
33:28Keon Coleman, the rookie, is okay.
33:31Dalton Kincaid just came back from injury.
33:33He's pretty good.
33:34You know, Dawson Knox is there also.
33:36Khalil Shakur, one of the guys that I wanted from the Patriots a few years back.
33:40He's been pretty good, you know, for the Bills, but this is not, you know, a great weapon offense.
33:47I love James Cook, the running back.
33:50I love what Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator,
33:54some of the stuff that they have done with motion, especially with the running back, have been great.
33:59The offensive line isn't great at all.
34:02Deion Dawkins is pretty good at left tackle, right tackle.
34:05Brown, Spencer Brown is okay.
34:08But, you know, Josh Allen is the guy that makes it work.
34:11I mean, he is just, he's ridiculous at this point.
34:14He's the ultimate weapon in this game.
34:18Big, strong, fast, can make ridiculous throws, can make ridiculous runs.
34:23He's tough to bring down.
34:26I have no idea how the Patriots try to stop the Bills in this game.
34:31I do think, you know, the Bills are at their best when they can, you know, run the ball.
34:36I just don't have any expectations that the Patriots can stop them running the ball.
34:41This offense is a wagon.
34:43Josh Allen, seventh in passer rating, but number one in QBR.
34:48The passing offense is second in DVOA.
34:51The rushing offense is fifth in DVOA.
34:54Their runner offense is third in success rate.
34:57Deion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, both tackles really freaking good.
35:01Spencer Brown likes to agitate people.
35:04Always adds a little bit extra right at the whistle or right after the whistle.
35:09So do you.
35:11They're just, they're a wagon, man.
35:14This offense is going to be very difficult.
35:19Overall offense, they're second in DVOA.
35:22They're the third best red zone offense in football.
35:25The Patriots are the 23rd red zone defense.
35:28They're eighth on third down.
35:30You almost can't find a weakness.
35:32They're just on the outside of top ten and lowest pressure rate given up.
35:37They're sixth in pass block win rate.
35:39You can look at any statistic, any analytic.
35:42Joe Brady, the O.C.'s on a heater.
35:45It's going to be a tremendous challenge.
35:48Before we get to the Patriots offense versus this Bill's defense,
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37:31Patriots offense versus Bills defense, of course,
37:34a big part of this game and one of the storylines is Josh Allen, Drake May.
37:40Drake May has been compared to Josh Allen a ton since going back to draft time.
37:46Drake was asked about Josh Allen this week by the media.
37:50I thought he handled that perfectly,
37:52as Drake handles most of the press conference stuff, honestly.
37:57He said, I have a long way to go before we even start talking about that.
38:02Josh Allen also very complimentary of Drake this week,
38:05saying he thinks he's going to be a very good quarterback for a very long time.
38:09Your thoughts, Greg, on this comparison between the Patriots rookie quarterback
38:15and the Bills quarterback, who is seen by most people as the MVP of this season?
38:22Yeah, I really like the comparison.
38:25I heard somebody say they thought Josh Allen was more,
38:30well, I guess it was who to compare Josh Allen to,
38:33and I think they said John Elway, which isn't that bad.
38:37I just think that Josh Allen and Drake May, to me, they are an apt comparison.
38:42I would say that Drake's just, he's going to be sort of Josh Allen Jr.,
38:47because he's just a little bit smaller.
38:51He's definitely going to fill out and all that,
38:55but not quite the same arm strength, not quite the same running ability.
39:00I would say that Drake May's faster, but Josh Allen's more powerful.
39:06But I will say this, and we've talked about this all year,
39:11Drake May at 22 years old is way further along than Josh Allen was as a rookie as well.
39:19Sort of same amount of playing in college, not a whole ton of experience.
39:24Josh Allen was a freaking bucking bronco his first year or two in the league,
39:31and he didn't really grow into being more of a polished player until year three,
39:35where he went to another level.
39:38Drake May, in terms of his ability to improve and be disciplined
39:45and take coaching from one week to the next, make corrections,
39:50is way ahead of where Josh Allen was.
39:53I don't know what that means long term, but that's where we are right now.
39:58And I will say, I just wanted to add this because I didn't realize this before.
40:03It doesn't surprise me, but before coming on the pod,
40:06I was watching Drake May high school basketball highlights, and let me just say this.
40:11Yeah, I was watching the same highlights.
40:13Yeah, I will just say this.
40:15Drake May's shooting form, better than his throwing form.
40:19I thought the same thing. His shot is perfect.
40:22His shooting form, it's flawless.
40:25It is.
40:26Amazing.
40:27And you also see the difference between, with all due respect,
40:30look, Drake May, breaking news, a much better athlete than me.
40:35But I will say, if you're watching, there is a difference between basketball athleticism
40:40and football athleticism.
40:42I will just put it that way.
40:43We got to remember Drake's 6'4", 6'5".
40:45He would have to play, what, two guard?
40:48Maybe a three in college.
40:50I don't think he had that kind of big-time college basketball athleticism.
40:56Not as tall as his brother, Luke.
40:58But the shooting form, you're right.
41:00I mean, there's a top of the perimeter above the break three that he takes
41:07that you see it.
41:08And then there's a corner three, a side shot, camera-wise,
41:13and his form is perfect.
41:15His form is absolutely perfect.
41:17Joe Mazzullo wants him out there.
41:20Hey, he can knock down threes.
41:21Joe's all in.
41:23Patriots offense versus that Bills defense, Greg.
41:26So let's just, okay.
41:31This is a confusing thing for me because what I love to do,
41:34and I try to be as much of an NFL team as I can,
41:39and really what NFL teams do, at least the functional ones,
41:43I don't know about the Patriots,
41:44is they really restrict themselves to the previous four games.
41:48And all the stats are skewed for the Bills defensively.
41:52If you look at their stats over the last four games,
41:55they're one of the worst defenses in the league.
41:58Then you look at who they played, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Lions.
42:03I think a lot of teams would be the worst teams in the league defensively
42:08if they were playing those teams.
42:10And plus, a lot of those games, the Bills got out to leads,
42:14got into a shootout, what have you.
42:16They went three and one in that stretch.
42:19They have won, what, eight of nine, the Bills have.
42:24I will say on film, the Bills look like a handful on defense.
42:28I mean, I don't think they're – they're not overly talented,
42:32but they were not afraid against the Lions to crowd the line,
42:38put a bunch of guys in the box.
42:40They fly around to defend the run.
42:43I don't think the Patriots have the type of weapons
42:45that are really going to back them off.
42:47I think you're going to continue to see like what we did from Arizona
42:50where Arizona and Buffalo's primarily a zone team under Sean McDermott.
42:55But these guys start to go – they don't have anybody who we're scared of.
42:59So we're going to get up on them.
43:01We're going to make them beat us over the top.
43:05The Bills are not really good about having a plan at defending what you do best.
43:13For example, I remember back in the day,
43:17you would watch the Patriots against the Bills,
43:20and the Bills, Sean McDermott wouldn't jam Rob Gronkowski off the line.
43:25Even in the red zone, you're just like, what are you doing?
43:28I think if the Patriots are going to hang in this game,
43:31if they're going to do anything in this game,
43:33I think it's going to be Drake with his legs taking off
43:36because I have no expectation for Sean McDermott putting in a spy or anything like that.
43:41He's one of these we-do-what-we-do type of guys.
43:45I think it's going to be tough for the Patriots,
43:48but I do think Drake's legs are going to do something in this game.
43:51Analytically, very similar to the offense.
43:54The defense just has great numbers.
43:56They don't blitz a lot, 29th in the NFL in blitz rate,
43:59but they're 12th in pass rush win rate,
44:02and that really happens in the middle.
44:05Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, both of those guys are tough to deal with,
44:09especially Ed Oliver.
44:11Good luck to the interior offensive line this week.
44:14I'm looking at you, Michael Wenu.
44:15I'm looking at you, ass-snap Ben Brown,
44:18and whoever plays left guard, I'm looking at you.
44:22If it's Leighton Robinson, I'm looking at you.
44:24It's going to be a difficult, difficult game.
44:26Of course, the Patriots, they're going to want to run the football,
44:29and the Bills' defense is number one in the NFL in stuff rate.
44:33It's going to be a challenge.
44:36It's going to be a challenge.
44:37All right.
44:38As Greg said earlier, holiday, Boston Sports Journal special.
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45:01Before we get to the pick, I just want to make a note.
45:03I would have saved this to the end of the podcast,
45:05but I have a feeling that when we make our pick,
45:08people probably just turn off the podcast and it's over.
45:10I just wanted to make this note personally for me growing up in Rhode Island.
45:14It just came out that Jim Donaldson,
45:16who was a longtime sports writer and columnist for the Providence Journal,
45:20has passed away at the age of 73.
45:22I grew up reading Jim.
45:25I wanted to say rest in peace, Jim Donaldson,
45:29in the Providence area in Rhode Island.
45:32He was very, very well-known, very successful, very opinionated,
45:38would rub some people the wrong way from time to time,
45:40did some great work regarding the Patriots when he was at the Providence Journal.
45:45Again, rest in peace, Jim Donaldson at the age of 73.
45:51I just wanted to say that Jim was one of my favorite people to see in the press boxes.
45:59He was extremely welcoming to me when I came here.
46:03He was a guy I made it a point to go out and read.
46:07I do not do that with everybody, but Jim was one of those guys.
46:11He was just a very nice man.
46:15He was very good at what he did.
46:18I'll definitely miss him.
46:21I have sort of missed his contributions around for sure,
46:26but I feel for his family.
46:30Rest in peace, bud.
46:32He made an impact.
46:33He made an impact for a lot of people.
46:35All right, so let's get to the pick.
46:37I know it feels weird after talking about that,
46:39but we got to get to doing what we got to do.
46:41Jim would do the same.
46:42Let's get to this week's pick.
46:45Ever since I picked on Greg and is against the spread,
46:48I'm falling off a cliff, so that's my fault.
46:51Karm is a bitch.
46:53I'm 6-8 against the spread, but I am 7-7 straight up,
46:56so not terrible there.
46:58Greg is still behind me at 5-7-2 technically, right?
47:03I think I'm still like a game behind you or something like that.
47:09I'm creeping up, baby.
47:105-7-2 against the spread for Mr. Bedard.
47:139-5 straight up.
47:14Look at this guy just putting his stuff on the table straight up.
47:18This week we got the Bills.
47:20You guessed it.
47:21They are a heavy favorite to this football game.
47:24Greg has it as minus 14.
47:26The over-under is 46-1⁄2.
47:29It's a lot of points, Greg.
47:31It's a lot of points.
47:33What do you think?
47:36I also wanted to point out that now that they moved the game to 4-25,
47:42the dicks over at the NFL, thanks for that,
47:45I got to work until like 1 a.m. again for the second straight week.
47:49And then the Chargers game is on Saturday,
47:51and I got to miss my kids' hockey game now.
47:53You guys all suck.
47:55But because they moved the game to 4-25, now it is in essence a night game,
48:01which makes it even colder.
48:03The real feel on Sunday night is supposed to be 7 degrees in Buffalo.
48:09So you have to look out.
48:11I mean, I'll be very interested.
48:13I think probably the most interesting thing for me in this game
48:17is how Drake May does in the cold up there.
48:20I mean, you know, there was one game that they had
48:23where he played well in the cold, but this is different.
48:26And so, to me, this is interesting to see how he handles the ball up there.
48:32You also have to look out for the checkout factor,
48:34where guys are like, oh, hell no, it's so cold,
48:38which we've seen before late in the season up there
48:41from Patriots teams of late.
48:44I think the Patriots have zero shot in this game.
48:49I don't think that McDermott's going to rub the Patriots' faces in it.
48:53So I am going, Bills, by the way, I wanted to point out,
48:58in the first real matchups against the AFC East this year,
49:01you know, when you prepare before the season for your divisional guys,
49:05put the roots of the game plan in there.
49:07The Patriots trailed the Jets 24-3.
49:10They trailed the Dolphins 31-0.
49:12That's 55-3.
49:15But what are the Bills going to do to them?
49:18I am going to say 33-10, Buffalo.
49:27Yeah, the Bills cover.
49:29I'm going, Bills, minus 14.
49:31It's a lot of points, though.
49:32I hate taking teams when it's like double digits
49:35because you could always have a weird, like, backdoor cover.
49:38Strange things happen.
49:39Bills get up big.
49:40They put their backup quarterback in there.
49:42Oh, hell breaks loose.
49:43Patriots score a couple of garbage-time touchdowns.
49:4614 points is a lot.
49:48My personal advice would, like, not touch this game
49:52because 14 points is a lot.
49:54But given what we saw last week off a bye and the way the Bills are playing,
49:58you've got to go with the Bills, even if it is 14.
50:00All right, that'll do it.
50:02We will be back early next week.
50:04I don't know the schedule.
50:05I'm going to be at 98.5 a couple times.
50:07So I've got to work this thing out with Greg.
50:09Maybe I'm on next week.
50:10Maybe I'm not.
50:12Of course, it's Christmas week.
50:13So if I'm not on, Merry Christmas, everybody.
50:15If I am, I'll say it again next week.
50:17And we will recap whatever happens on Sunday.
50:21No matter how bad it could possibly get, we will be here for all of you.
50:26Have a great weekend.
50:27Bye-bye.
50:28♪ music playing ♪