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00:00Hey, check this out.
00:00Just make you throw up in your mouth,
00:02just make you get excited,
00:03could be anywhere in between, here we go.
00:04Now, this is not a done thing,
00:06but a projection by somebody who is,
00:09I think, good on this stuff and in the know,
00:11that is our friend David Lombardi, SF Standard.
00:14So he did a projection of Brock Purdy's
00:16free agent contract extension, all right?
00:22Just hear it out, hear it out,
00:26because I think most sports fans know now
00:29when you just hear the initial number of an NFL contract,
00:33that's not the thing.
00:35That's a funny money number, so don't freak out.
00:39But the contract projection
00:44that Lombardi wrote about is for five years
00:50and 305.
00:52Oh, hell no.
00:55Million dollars.
00:56Million dollars.
00:5761 million a year.
00:58305 million dollars, 61 million per year.
01:05That's the APY, which is not a real thing.
01:10Well, I mean, if they sign that deal,
01:13then somebody needs to put down the hippie lettuce
01:15down there in Santa Clara.
01:16Why, why, why?
01:17I'm just kidding.
01:18Okay, you're just kidding.
01:19No, I'm kidding, because when you hear 61 million
01:22average annual value, when you hear five years
01:25and 305 million, people are gonna lose their S.
01:29But here's the part that matters,
01:31that you know this better than anyone,
01:32because you're usually the one explaining it to me.
01:34You're doing great.
01:35All right, thank you.
01:36So the guarantee on the 305 million dollars
01:40would be a total for the life of the deal,
01:43the total would be 140.
01:46Fully guaranteed.
01:47Fully guaranteed.
01:49No matter what money.
01:50That's what he's gonna get, 140 million dollars.
01:54Here's the part that I think really matters to fans.
01:59The cap hit as to when does this break your back
02:05as far as teammates and abilities to maneuver
02:08and sign and all of that,
02:11would not actually kick in until 2028.
02:19We don't even know if we're gonna be alive by then.
02:21Well, careful, careful.
02:23I'll be 60.
02:25We don't even know.
02:27That actually works better when I say that.
02:29So the base salary in 2025 would be 1.1 million dollars,
02:33which is what it already is.
02:34Base salary in 26, 1.2, and then it balloons in 2027
02:39all the way up to 1.3.
02:41The base salary's not the real number, though.
02:43The real number is what's the cap hit?
02:46Like what's it gonna cost them against the cap?
02:48The signing bonus would be 70 million dollars,
02:51but you can prorate that over the five years,
02:54meaning it's an equal 14 million a year per year
02:57over the life of the deal.
02:58You've also got option bonuses,
03:01which would be at eight million a year,
03:02but not kick in until 2026.
03:05The cap hit next year would be 15.1.
03:08The Niners have over 50 in space.
03:11The cap hit would be 15.1.
03:13The following year, 23.2.
03:15The year after that, 29.3.
03:18I'm sorry, manageable, manageable.
03:21Followed by manageable.
03:22Then in year four, the cap hit is 78 million dollars.
03:27However, as you well know, what can you do in 2028?
03:30Well, here's one option.
03:32Cut him.
03:34That's one option.
03:35Another option, restructure.
03:38And then again, start prorating things
03:41over the life of the deal to create more space.
03:43Plus, what is the NFL salary cap in 2028?
03:47The answer is I don't know, but it's bigger than it is now.
03:51It is, and if you got to that point,
03:53which would be after three more years,
03:55if you did want to cut him
03:58before the 78 million dollar cap hit struck the next year,
04:02you'd have a dead cap charge of 76 million.
04:04Yeah, which is a lot.
04:05Because that prorated bonus that you still owe,
04:07the option bonuses that you still owe,
04:09those would all whammy, come home to roost.
04:12Shout out Champ Kine.
04:13They would all come right home to roost then,
04:16but what they're more likely to do is restructure the deal
04:19and take it so that when he's owed
04:22a 50 million dollar base in 2028,
04:25and these are David Lombardi's numbers,
04:26numbers are numbers,
04:27but his numbers are usually pretty on point.
04:31I mean, and it's just a projection,
04:33so even if the numbers are off a little bit,
04:35I think the point of this projection
04:36is not the numbers, it's the structure.
04:38Exactly.
04:39And I wonder if 49er fans,
04:41does this make you feel any better
04:43if, forget all the gobbledygook
04:46that we're talking about right now,
04:48understand that the idea of 49er maneuverability
04:53that everyone's so worried about,
04:55three years from now.
04:56Right.
04:57You've got three more full seasons
05:00of not worried about it.
05:03Not worried about it.
05:05Well, just look at this first year coming up,
05:07and you mentioned number one in cap space,
05:09and I think they have about 50 million in cap space.
05:11If he's only gonna eat 15.1 of it,
05:15and I do think that the signing bonus part of this
05:17is about where it's going to be,
05:1970 million spread over five years,
05:21which means 14 million accelerated for this year
05:24with the million he's already making.
05:26So if you can just look at it from that lens,
05:29you're gonna pay Brock Purdy 15 million
05:31for this upcoming year.
05:33How do you feel about that,
05:3449er fans? Phenomenal!
05:35Right.
05:36Phenomenal!
05:37Right, that puts him probably in the,
05:39maybe in the top 40 of quarterbacks
05:42for next year's salary,
05:44maybe in the top 50.
05:45Outside of the, I mean, look,
05:47outside of the top 20.
05:48Oh, for sure.
05:49And whether you love him or hate him,
05:50there's not a human being on the planet Earth
05:52that, unless you work for the ringer,
05:54that thinks that Brock Purdy
05:56is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the NFL.
05:58Nobody thinks that.
06:00If you do, you're wrong.
06:03Right?
06:04Yeah.
06:05I mean, if you look at what you're trying to do
06:07with your team,
06:09you need to have a quarterback,
06:10and they've already decided that he is their quarterback,
06:12so how do you assign him
06:15to where you can maximize,
06:17not the Steph Curry window,
06:18but you're gonna maximize
06:20the Trent, Kittle, Christian, George windows,
06:24and Fred.
06:24You're gonna maximize their windows
06:26because if you wanna talk about the Niners,
06:28and you and I always go back and forth
06:30on Super Bowl or bust,
06:31and we'll put that phrase to the side,
06:33but going into next year,
06:35and you've got a 37-year-old Trent,
06:37you've got Christian off an injury,
06:39you've got Debo really most likely
06:41in the last year of his deal
06:42because his number also balloons.
06:45You have a rehabbing IUC making 30.
06:47You've got a 30-year-old George Kittle.
06:50You've got Fred Warner.
06:51You're hoping to get Dre Greenlaw.
06:53All these other nice, fancy things you want,
06:55if you can pay your quarterback 15 million,
06:58you're gonna do that.
06:59So I think this structure,
07:01and again, the 61 million a year
07:03is gonna make everyone lose their minds.
07:05Of course they are.
07:06Yes, and I get that.
07:07And that's fair.
07:08Like, oh, so Brock Purdy is the largest contract
07:11in the history of professional sports or whatever.
07:13Yeah.
07:14I get it.
07:15Outside of Shohei Ohtani.
07:16Sure, that's gonna freak you out,
07:17although Shohei's not getting paid until all of it.
07:19Now, we really don't know if we'll be alive by then.
07:21Sure.
07:22But anyway.
07:23Even if he gets 140 guaranteed,
07:24which is what David Lombardi's laying out,
07:26that would put him fourth among quarterbacks.
07:29Deshawn is one.
07:30Oh, God.
07:31Burrow is two.
07:32Trevor Lawrence is three.
07:34In terms of guaranteed at signing,
07:36which this would be 140 guaranteed at signing.
07:39Lamar's at 135.
07:41Herbert's at 134.
07:43Dak's at 129.
07:45Don't even get me started on Mahomes.
07:46He's way down the list.
07:48But as far as what his actual guarantee would be,
07:52it would not be top of the market.
07:54And his average annual, that would be top of the market.
07:5761 would reset the market.
08:00Number one, sure, sure.
08:01But I guess the reason that we wanted to dive into this,
08:06to sort of take it away from the math
08:08that we're sitting here discussing on the radio, is this.
08:12This is what I want to say.
08:14If you have been cruising around,
08:18worried that Brock Purdy is about to sign an extension,
08:23and that means that the 49ers are going to have to cut
08:27a bunch of his teammates and have no ability to replace them,
08:32you don't have to worry about that.
08:36That is not a thing.
08:38The Niners are not going to do that.
08:42They are not going to sign Brock Purdy two months from now
08:45and announce that Debo is gone and Hargrave is gone
08:50and start sending out messages
08:52that Kittle and Warner are next
08:54and have no ability to go plug some of the holes
08:57they so dearly need to plug.
09:00That's not real.
09:01It never has been.
09:03That's what's important, I feel like.
09:06It is very, very important to understand.
09:09If you don't love Brock and you don't want the numbers
09:11or you don't want him to be your quarterback, fine.
09:14That opinion is all good.
09:16What I think is out there, though, that shouldn't be
09:19is this thought that the Niners are about to sign him
09:23and it means a bunch of his teammates are going to be cut
09:26and the Niners have no more maneuverability.
09:28No, they won't do that.
09:31They've never done that.
09:32Really, honestly, they can't do that
09:34unless they want to do a terrible deal
09:36and give him a $70 million signing bonus and not prorated
09:41and you give him 70 up front
09:42and you have the 70 hit on the cap this year
09:45so he makes 71 this year
09:47and then in subsequent years he wouldn't make as much
09:50but that would be stupid
09:51when you've got all these other contracts,
09:53these big numbers, you've got Bosa and Debo
09:56and Brandon and George.
09:57You have a lot of big numbers out there
09:59and you're going to cut Javon Hargrave.
10:03That's going to happen before June 1st
10:03and you're going to need to replace him.
10:05You're going to need to, I think, sign a free agent center.
10:09There's a few of them out there who will be free agents
10:11and you need a good, legitimate anchor
10:14to your offensive line.
10:15You need an edge rusher.
10:16You hope to draft one.
10:17You need a tackle and probably another guard.
10:19You hope to draft them.
10:21You need at least one corner, if not two.
10:23You might need a linebacker if you don't re-sign Greenlaw
10:26and then you start to get into depth pieces.
10:28So you have a long list on your safe way
10:31and I'll see you in the aisles, grocery list,
10:34but the first thing you have to do is get a quarterback
10:37and if you can pay your quarterback $15 million a year,
10:40you are way ahead of the game.
10:42Well, and here's the other thing that's important.
10:44So I think what we're talking about here,
10:45because the concern goes, we've watched this,
10:48you and I deal in this space all the time.
10:51Fans and media, all of us, we're just fans.
10:54You get attached to players
10:56and we're sitting here right now with our fingernails
10:59like hanging on to Steph Curry
11:01and in some cases Draymond Green or whatever.
11:04I had an argument, not an argument,
11:07but an on-air debate for a day about Dray Greenlaw.
11:11Like, yep, my nails are dug in on him.
11:13I do not want him to get out of the building.
11:15I could be wrong.
11:16Maybe he'll never be the same again,
11:18but we get attached to those players
11:20that your favorite team drafts.
11:22And so I really believe that the concern has been
11:25that if you sign Brock Purdy to a big extension,
11:29we're gonna lose a bunch of our favorite people.
11:31And here's what I'd say.
11:32You are, but you're gonna lose them
11:34when you wanna lose them, okay?
11:37You don't want Debo on the team in four years.
11:41You don't want Fred Warner on the team in five years.
11:46And you may not want George Kittle on the team in five years
11:48because they will be old and unproductive.
11:52And that's just the reality of the NFL.
11:56Fred Warner has already been in the league
11:57for almost a decade and is running around
12:00on a broken ankle, for God's sakes.
12:02And when I see him do media, that makes me think
12:06that man knows that his career has fewer years left on it
12:09than what he's already played
12:11because he's starting to think about his post-career.
12:13He's got a podcast and he's showing up on NFL Countdown.
12:16And he's really good at it.
12:17And he's phenomenal at it.
12:19You have that, too.
12:19So, like, that's when you're gonna lose these guys
12:24when you want to lose them.
12:26So, how does, when you hear that,
12:31how does that make you feel
12:33about a Brock Purdy extension in theory?
12:36It makes me feel great.
12:37And it makes me feel like I've always felt.
12:40And I'm glad that David Lombardi has put numbers to it
12:43because it's easier to look at it in a concrete fashion
12:47when there's actually numbers.
12:48And these are his numbers.
12:50They're not the Niners numbers.
12:51But when you look at the structure, as you were mentioning,
12:53this is the structure that I've been talking about
12:57that works.
12:57The signing bonus, which is fully guaranteed,
12:59is a big number, but it's spread out over five years.
13:02And the average annual, it gets big in year four.
13:06And at that point, if you have a Brock Purdy who,
13:09as Fred said, he's gonna have a bunch of rings
13:12and all the rest of it.
13:13If Brock Purdy has been good for the next three years,
13:16then you take this contract and you rip it up.
13:19And you restructure it and say, all right,
13:21we're gonna rip up the last two or three years of the deal.
13:23We're gonna give you a new five-year deal
13:26with new money, new guaranteed, front-loaded
13:29like the Niners do to everyone.
13:30They did it to George.
13:31They did it to Debo and Christian.
13:33And they did it to Trent.
13:35It's what they do, right?
13:36Yeah, absolutely.
13:37And then there's this.
13:38This is a trick I play on myself
13:41because none of us like getting older.
13:43Nobody ever likes getting older, right?
13:45And this is a trick I play.
13:46You got a big one coming up.
13:47Maybe.
13:48We'll see if we get there.
13:50This is a trick that I like to play.
13:52When you go, like for instance,
13:54when you turned 50, did that hit you by the way?
13:58Like emotionally, did it hit you when you turned 50?
14:00A little bit.
14:02A little bit.
14:02A little bit.
14:03How long did that last?
14:04I had a buddy tell me the other day
14:05that it took him two months.
14:07And I was like, I don't think I'm wired that way.
14:09I don't really care.
14:10We'll find out.
14:11We'll find out.
14:12I did a show and I will tip my cap
14:15to the great Joe Fortenbaugh now of ESPN.
14:18He put together a birthday show for me
14:20and I had like childhood friends call in
14:23college professors.
14:24That's amazing.
14:25It was pretty awesome.
14:26Right, but like.
14:27Like beyond that though, it was like, man, I'm 50.
14:29Well, and now you're halfway to 60.
14:31Does that trigger?
14:32More than that.
14:33No, because when you get past 50,
14:36honestly, Mark, sometimes I have to stop
14:37and think how old I am.
14:39Okay, so now you just don't even care.
14:41No, because now I have to do the math.
14:42The other day I was like, am I 57?
14:44And then we had the whole Dre Greenlaw thing
14:46because he wears 57 and I'm like, I'm not 57.
14:49Am I still 55?
14:50No, I'm not.
14:50But here's what I'm getting at.
14:52If you're 10 years from a certain age
14:54that scares you, think about how long ago,
14:5810 years ago feel.
15:00So if you sat here, and yes, I'm turning 50 next week,
15:04but you asked me, how long ago does 40 feel?
15:09733 lifetimes.
15:11Exactly.
15:11So here's why I bring that up.
15:15Four years from now, when this Brock Purdy extension
15:19is a problem, do you realize how long that is in the NFL?
15:25Go back four years ago.
15:27Do it.
15:28We're in 2025, but actually the 2024 season.
15:32So go back to 2020.
15:34How are we doing?
15:35Not well, I don't think.
15:36Not well.
15:37That's the Jimmy Garoppolo injury year, if I'm correct?
15:40Yep.
15:41Or was that 19?
15:42Is it 19, 20?
15:44Anyway, one of those.
15:45But point is, is the Niners are coming out
15:48of a Super Bowl appearance where they lost
15:51to the Kansas City Chiefs,
15:52and they're about to go through a whole rebirth,
15:58and the rest of the Garoppolo experience,
16:01then leading to Trey Lance,
16:03then leading back to Garoppolo, and to Brock Purdy,
16:07and then Brock's first year,
16:08and then Brock's Super Bowl year,
16:10and now this.
16:11It is forever.
16:12It's a lifetime, yeah.
16:15So terrified of a Brock extension,
16:18it won't matter until what I would argue
16:21is three NFL lifetimes from now.
16:23Yeah, and that's fair,
16:24because if you think about the 2028 team,
16:27and who on this current team will be on the roster in 2028?
16:32Great question.
16:33I mean, Brock.
16:34Ricky Pearsall.
16:35You would think.
16:36I hope.
16:36Although, I'm just predicting.
16:37That'd be his fifth year option.
16:38I'm high on him, man.
16:39So, yeah.
16:40I'm high on him.
16:41He looked pretty good.
16:41I really am.
16:42I'm big on him.
16:43Poonie, and, you know, Bernardo Green,
16:46and Malik Mustafa.
16:48These are guys who, even them,
16:50they will have to be extended by them,
16:52because they're not first round picks.
16:53They'll have to actually be as good
16:55as right now we think they are.
16:57Exactly, and I'm just looking at the list right now
16:59of free agents that the 49ers currently have,
17:02and I could run down the list,
17:03but as I eyeball it,
17:05there are maybe three guys on this 27-man list
17:09that you'd be like, yeah, I want him back,
17:12which just tells me the nature
17:14of what you're talking about is true.
17:16Football rosters turnover,
17:18like a four-year thing from now,
17:20this Niner roster, four years from now,
17:23will include only two or three familiar names.
17:25Well, I mean, you could play a game, even.
17:27When Brock's extension hits,
17:30and then fill in the blank,
17:33Nick Bosa will be in his 30s.
17:36You will be in your 60s.
17:37Easy.
17:39Easy, I'll be 60.
17:41Grandy will be closer to 40 than 30.
17:45Is that right?
17:47How old are you?
17:47He's only 28.
17:48Okay, nevermind, but you'll be in your 30s.
17:51I don't like thinking about that.
17:52Okay, Lucas, how old are you?
17:55How old are you?
17:5633.
17:57Okay, Lucas will be closer to 40 than 30,
18:01and we could do this with certain players
18:03who we love also, you know what I mean?
18:06And I'm talking about the Fred Warners of the world.
18:10Debo Samuel will be 33 years old.
18:13You still want Debo on the team at that hour?
18:17Like, Fred Warner will be 32 years old,
18:22and will be 11 years into the NFL.
18:24I'm looking at the 2020 roster,
18:26and as I'm scanning down so far,
18:28I've come up with seven names that were on that team
18:33that are on this team this past last year.
18:35Okay.
18:36And of those seven,
18:37there's two that may not even make the team next year.
18:39There you go.