Patriots vs Bengals and 2024 season preview w/ Jeff Howe | Pats Interference

  • last week
Before The Athletic's Jeff Howe joins the show, Andrew runs down a six-pack of Patriots thoughts and nuggets, including quotes from his recent exclusive with Eliot Wolf. Later, Andrew and Jeff preview the Patriots' season and season opener at Cincinnati, then veteran cornerback Jonathan Jones stands in for the latest 4-minute drill.


0:00 - Patriots season opener
2:09 - Eliot Wolf's insights
6:30 - Bengals injury updates
8:34 - Offensive line updates
12:01 - Enjoy real football
17:14 - Patriots expectations
19:49 - Game time tickets
25:56 - Explosive plays discussed
28:01 - Offensive line concerns
30:44 - Drake Maye's impact
35:16 - Defensive talent concerns
39:08 - Coaching impact discussed
42:11 - Key player importance
44:05 - PrizePicks
45:46 - Picks of the week
52:11 - Patriots season prediction
54:30 - Patriots rebuilding year

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Transcript
00:00:00All right, we made it.
00:00:15You made it.
00:00:16I made it.
00:00:17That guy who's only hanging in the fantasy league because the nine other guys make him
00:00:20stick in the league year after year.
00:00:22He made it.
00:00:23I'm gonna talk about Friday that we are recording Friday, two days before the Patriots season
00:00:26opener.
00:00:27We made it back to football.
00:00:28It has been eight long months since we had actual real Patriots football on the field.
00:00:33And yeah, I know a lot of last year was depressing and a lot of us expect this year to be depressing
00:00:37as well.
00:00:38But damn it.
00:00:39This is why we're here.
00:00:40Right?
00:00:41To watch, to listen, to record, to write, to report, to analyze.
00:00:46This is why we're here.
00:00:48The real game.
00:00:49So what are we going to start with today?
00:00:51Stuff on the field?
00:00:52No, of course not.
00:00:53We're going to start off the field.
00:00:54Now we're going to get to Jeff Howe of The Athletic for our Bengals preview episode as
00:00:57well as a little bit of season preview stuff, though, honestly, I feel like if you've been
00:01:01listening to the show long enough for certainly this summer, like the season preview has been
00:01:05every episode since the start of camp.
00:01:07So there's a little bit of season, big picture stuff, more pointed stuff for Sunday's game.
00:01:12But I'm going to start here with an intro that covers six different items because there's
00:01:17a lot that's happened over the last couple of days.
00:01:19Not in a big picture, oh my God, emergency pod kind of way, but just in a we should,
00:01:24we should sit down and check in, talk kind of thing.
00:01:26An email, not a meeting.
00:01:28So let's start off with a meeting I had with Elliot Wolfe.
00:01:32Number one, Elliot Wolfe and I spoke for an exclusive story you should read if you haven't
00:01:37and not because it'll make my bosses, the Boston Herald, a little bit happier than they
00:01:40generally are.
00:01:41But this is something that covered pretty much everything I thought you wouldn't want
00:01:44to know.
00:01:45Drake May's development, where he sees the team right now, talked about tanking and what
00:01:51the focus is moving forward.
00:01:53So my takeaway from that story, we chatted for about 20 minutes before I wrote this up,
00:01:58is the greatest barrier really right now between you and me and the Patriots is not the concrete
00:02:03or the bricks that make up all of one Patriot placing down headquarters.
00:02:07It's just belief.
00:02:08Elliot Wolfe genuinely believes in the roster that he built.
00:02:11This is not surprising.
00:02:12GMs do not sign players that they don't like, but we all know the players the Patriots have
00:02:17are generally players that other teams don't like.
00:02:19So what I'm going to do here for you now is read a couple of quotes where again, I think
00:02:23you should read the whole story.
00:02:24There's more here, but these are things from Elliot Wolfe to me you have not heard anywhere
00:02:28else.
00:02:29And they speak exactly to where we are.
00:02:30As I pitched to the PR staff weeks ago, let's do a state of the franchise kind of story
00:02:35on the record before the opener.
00:02:37This is how he sees things.
00:02:38So I smelled the offense two weeks ago.
00:02:41He's saying on the record, yeah, we think this offense can support a quarterback.
00:02:45Then they go to Washington and Washington's number two defense whips the starting offensive
00:02:50line city.
00:02:51And then injury more and later, Darian Lowe's already banged up and things just really aren't
00:02:55so good.
00:02:56So I said, okay, have they at least lived up to your expectations now?
00:02:58This is what Elliot Wolfe said.
00:02:59He said, cool.
00:03:00I think it's hard to talk about living up to expectations before we play the games.
00:03:04We don't know how it's going to settle.
00:03:06We've had a lot of moving pieces in the offensive line.
00:03:08We've had a lot of moving pieces at receiver, trying guys at different positions, different
00:03:12groups.
00:03:13We feel good about the groups that we've assembled.
00:03:14We'll see how it goes.
00:03:16Okay.
00:03:17Not surprising.
00:03:18Quote number two.
00:03:19I think this will have your attention a little bit more.
00:03:21He's talking about the youth movement, right?
00:03:22The Packer way.
00:03:23He tells us that the combine, Hey, you know, we're going to prioritize snaps for younger
00:03:26players more than we have in the past.
00:03:28He goes, cool.
00:03:29I would expect this year we will be getting younger as the year goes along, as opposed
00:03:33to the other direction, whether it means by injury or attrition or whatever, everyone
00:03:37knows that everyone that we're trying to win now, obviously, but there is an eye for the
00:03:42future and developing this core of players that we haven't maybe had the last couple
00:03:45of years.
00:03:46Bingo.
00:03:47There it is.
00:03:48It's about the core, whether that's extending guys like Mike on a winnow, Kyle Duggar, certainly
00:03:53Christian bar more, right?
00:03:55Or it's the draft and develop focus with Jalen Polk.
00:03:58Drake may is going to be the biggest piece of this and the other guys that they drafted.
00:04:01It's about the core of the young player.
00:04:03So playing them now and extending them later.
00:04:06Speaking of Drake may again, he was a part of these conversations that led to Jacoby
00:04:10percent being named the week one starter.
00:04:12It was derived by it was decision though.
00:04:14He took a long time and many detours to let us know, oh yeah, it was we, I mean me making
00:04:19that decision.
00:04:20So I said, can you just give us some more insight into to how this happened?
00:04:24Here's what Elliot said.
00:04:25Quote, we just feel like the worst thing that could happen is you put a guy in before he's
00:04:28ready and then you have to take him out and whether that's him or somebody in another
00:04:31position for young player to not be ready and be put in that position, it can be counterproductive
00:04:37to their career.
00:04:38So then I go, as I think you are right now, why isn't there a veteran quarterback on the
00:04:44roster?
00:04:45Because if Jacoby gets hurt, as we saw in the preseason finale, and everyone's been
00:04:47talking about this for weeks, can you put Drake may in there because Gerard is committed
00:04:51a hundred percent publicly on the record.
00:04:53Yes, he's the second quarterback.
00:04:55Drake may will go in and Elliot's answer was, well, we'll make an exception because we have
00:04:59competence in may and Jacoby has been durable and we're counting on that, but we also have
00:05:04a contingency plan.
00:05:05And so this is why we're going to make an exception with the most important position,
00:05:09the most important player on the roster.
00:05:11That answer, I don't know for a fact, but I would imagine got ripped apart a little
00:05:15bit in other places in the Boston media market.
00:05:18But here's the thing.
00:05:20That's information.
00:05:21Those are quotes.
00:05:22It's access.
00:05:23Uh, not to pat myself on the back, but I think you would want to know from the head of the
00:05:26front office about why the roster looks like it is now.
00:05:29Not just because Drake may is not starting week one, but just what they feel and what
00:05:33they look like.
00:05:34Again, the barrier between you understanding what the roster is or being inside is not
00:05:38the brick.
00:05:39It's not the doors.
00:05:41Right?
00:05:42It's just belief.
00:05:43They like their team more than you do more than I do.
00:05:45And like you said at the start, we'll see.
00:05:47Okay.
00:05:48That was a long number one.
00:05:49Uh, six pack continues.
00:05:50Number two, bangles are juggling right now.
00:05:53So Jeff, how is going to come on and enlighten us a little bit about Jamar Chase's situation,
00:05:57which if you've been following at all is not like Brandon level.
00:06:02There's a five alarm fire, but no one really knows if it's a PETA that's been left in for
00:06:06too long or there's like actually a blaze somewhere, but things aren't good.
00:06:10People have exited.
00:06:11When can we go back in?
00:06:12When is this going to be over?
00:06:13It's just that he's saying today, Friday, there's a contract within reach and I'll be
00:06:20willing to play the contract, but I'm going to be a game time decision.
00:06:23All of which is to say, well, what the hell is going on?
00:06:27My bet.
00:06:28My money is right now that he'll be limited on Sunday.
00:06:30I think he'll play.
00:06:32I don't think someone who is basically not practice all summer can go play an NFL game
00:06:35from start to finish.
00:06:36So we won't see that.
00:06:39And he might not be alone.
00:06:40T Higgins popped up in the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury.
00:06:44And I didn't know this honestly until today, Higgins has had a long, long, long, long years
00:06:47long history with hamstring injuries.
00:06:49So forget that they're generally finicky.
00:06:51You don't want to mess with them because they will bite back very quickly.
00:06:54But he was not a participant in today's practice, which was just a walkthrough, which to me
00:06:58says he's in a little bit of trouble.
00:07:00So there is a world in which the Patriots go into Cincinnati, biggest underdogs, nine
00:07:04point underdogs of week one and don't have to deal with Jamar Chase or T Higgins.
00:07:08Again, I think Chase will be limited.
00:07:09We'll see about Higgins.
00:07:11But if you're someone who I wrote about this upset path today in a similar Friday fives
00:07:15new column I'm doing, you should read it on Fridays.
00:07:18It believes the Patriots can pull the upset.
00:07:19First of all, I talked about it earlier this week.
00:07:21Yes, that's absolutely possible.
00:07:23And those odds might have just increased, even though the Patriots are dealing with
00:07:26their own injuries.
00:07:27Which brings us to number three.
00:07:29City sounds not going to play the injury report as I check my phone now has not come out just
00:07:33yet.
00:07:34But this dude is not seeing the field in two weeks.
00:07:37He got hurt.
00:07:38The preseason finale.
00:07:39That was August 25th.
00:07:40It is September six.
00:07:41Now Patriots practice four times this week, including a walkthrough today.
00:07:45He's been completely MIA.
00:07:46So an offensive line that was generally a shaky position group to begin with.
00:07:52Even at full strength is now missing a guy who might be their second best offense alignment
00:07:55at the end of the season, and they need a new left guard.
00:07:58So who is that left guard going to be?
00:08:00It will probably be a combination of two guys, Nick Cleverett and Michael Jordan.
00:08:04Jordan is on the practice squad because he was one of the four guys released on cut down
00:08:07day to make room for the four waiver claims.
00:08:10They've been repping with the starters in practice.
00:08:13I don't really care if it's Nick Leverett or Michael Jordan.
00:08:16Either one is like having a kick me sign slapped in the back of the offensive line.
00:08:20If you're a defensive coordinator, especially defensive coordinator like Lou Anna Rumo who
00:08:25look that defense stunk last year.
00:08:27But this dude knows how to get into his bag and what to pull out when it comes to third
00:08:30down, particularly with pressures simulated or actual blitzes.
00:08:35So the offensive line is a whole, but Aaron Lowe has been practicing, which is good.
00:08:39The last few days he's drama has been encouraged by his progress dealing with an abdomen injury.
00:08:44If he plays, here's the offensive line low at left tackle Nick Leverett or Jordan at
00:08:49left guard.
00:08:50David Andrews, a center laden Robinson, the fourth round rookie, a right guard and Mike
00:08:54on winning who told WEI today I'm going to be playing right tackle and he'll be at right
00:08:59tackle last known on this and we'll get to the last three notes.
00:09:02The Patriots are going to rotate and not just with their offensive line, but dry Mayo
00:09:07opened this morning's press conference by saying, you know, I watched the game last
00:09:13night, Ravens and the Chiefs and conditioning, especially in week one plays a big factor
00:09:17and winning or losing.
00:09:19And so we're not talking about guys who can run certain 40 times or past conditioning
00:09:23test in July.
00:09:24We're talking about like game shape, right?
00:09:25You're in for 10 plays.
00:09:26If you go all out, what else do you have in the reserves?
00:09:30Patriots don't know that yet.
00:09:31So he's left it up to the position coaches and I would, I would circle these or watch
00:09:35these when you're watching on Sunday receiver corner defensive line and offensive line where
00:09:41you're going to see guys come in for different series, maybe a quarter and then they'll react
00:09:44from there, right?
00:09:45If Nick Leverett starts, Jordan comes in and Jordan gets posterized, uh, they'll put Nick
00:09:50Leverett in and probably roll with him, right?
00:09:52But they're going to be rotating guys as draw put it for the next few weeks.
00:09:55So something to keep in mind.
00:09:56All right.
00:09:57Number four, I have a big story on this coming out either Saturday or Sunday.
00:10:01I don't know which one about DeMarcus Covington, who's really going to be the defensive brain
00:10:05behind all of their game planning, obviously the play calling as a D coordinator.
00:10:09It's not Gerard and Bill obviously is being succeeded by Gerard as a head coach, but as
00:10:15a defensive mastermind, this is going to be Covington because even though he's only 35,
00:10:20even though he's only coached in New England, the last seven or so years, defensive line
00:10:24outside linebackers is a, is a QC and he's respected around the league.
00:10:27He worked at the senior bowl, did a really good job by everyone who was there.
00:10:30And I got to talk to after the fact he's working for a defense head coach.
00:10:36And yet Mayo is not really speaking in the meeting rooms.
00:10:38According to the players that I spoke to this week, it's Covington leading the collaboration
00:10:43of the game plan.
00:10:44It's Covington leading the meetings.
00:10:46It's Covington running the show.
00:10:49And what I've heard from guys, longtime veterans is to say, number one, they want to be aggressive
00:10:54because every new defensive coordinator says they're going to be aggressive.
00:10:58And no one's going up there on day one of the introductory press conference being like,
00:11:00we're going to rush for, and then play zone.
00:11:04And I don't know why I'm doing a crappy Trump impression right now.
00:11:06We'll just give you all the yards underneath.
00:11:08No, they said, we're going to be aggressive, multiple physical, yada, yada.
00:11:12I'm telling you longtime veterans, and this is in the story.
00:11:16I'll tell you what, Jonathan Jones, Kyle Duggar said to me, look, you're going to know it
00:11:19when you see it, but he has put his own imprint on the system.
00:11:23And it will be very different from what you've been used to the last few years.
00:11:26So something to look for.
00:11:27I think DeMarcus Covington is going to spin the dial.
00:11:29There'll be a lot more disguise, which is saying something for a Patriots defense, right?
00:11:33But they might finish among the highest splitting teams in the league just because of the coaching
00:11:39change and the personality they've carried over.
00:11:41Number five, this is simple, guys.
00:11:45And this came up because of a conversation I had at practice with other beat writers today.
00:11:49We're like, yeah, we're writing these stories.
00:11:51Why to watch?
00:11:52Everyone's so down.
00:11:53They lost Jude on bar more like I'm trying to hard time to find reasons to tell people
00:11:58to keep up with this season.
00:11:59I go, hey, it's worth football.
00:12:02I talked about this at the top.
00:12:04This is why we're all here.
00:12:05This is why sponsors like you're about to hear from game time and price fix are pouring
00:12:09a ton of money into this podcast.
00:12:10And thank you for that support in other places, because I know people are coming together
00:12:14on Sundays for the football.
00:12:15They're listening to podcasts for the football.
00:12:17So even if the Patriots go three and 14 or win however many games you think they're going
00:12:22to win or lose, it doesn't mean we can't enjoy this.
00:12:25We got four months of real football.
00:12:28Okay, this is going to be good.
00:12:30Watch the rookies.
00:12:31Listen to that episode.
00:12:32I talked about how to survive a rebuild.
00:12:34All the tips are in there.
00:12:35I'm just saying don't throw the season out before you even get started here on Sunday.
00:12:40Like we it's this is going to be a good time of year.
00:12:44It always is.
00:12:44It's football.
00:12:45Last one.
00:12:46Number six, Gerard's filled more OJ today and not in a big way.
00:12:50Not only them a freak out.
00:12:51I'm done.
00:12:52I'm tired.
00:12:53And I realize I do this to myself talking about Gerard and press conferences.
00:12:56I want to talk about him as a football coach.
00:12:58Okay, and we will.
00:13:00But on Monday, he said he's going to be as transparent as possible about injuries.
00:13:04Cool.
00:13:05That sounds great.
00:13:06We didn't ask for that.
00:13:07We are going to ask about injuries, and we understand there are competitive boundaries
00:13:11that you can't cross and tell us exactly what the game plan is or who's hurt or who's dinged
00:13:15up or who you're going to sit, whatever.
00:13:17But then today, Friday, when we asked about city, so we already documented has three practices
00:13:21this week, and it missed again today for four.
00:13:23We'll see.
00:13:24You know, we don't really know.
00:13:25Oh, has been very low.
00:13:27Make courage.
00:13:27Tony Gibson.
00:13:29Well, anytime anyone goes on the injury report, he went on Thursday with a hip, but sounds
00:13:34like he's going to be good to go.
00:13:35Anytime anyone goes to the injury report, you're worried.
00:13:39Well, duh.
00:13:40But you told us you'd be transparent, and now you're not.
00:13:43So what's the deal?
00:13:45You didn't have to make the promise.
00:13:46You didn't have to make nice.
00:13:47You don't have to do any of this.
00:13:49Of course, we would appreciate it.
00:13:50People at home, you listening right now would love to know more about injuries.
00:13:53I would love to tell you about them, but if you're going to be transparent, which is an
00:13:57absolute term, either you're transparent or you're not, and that's it, then just don't
00:14:02promise it.
00:14:03That's all.
00:14:03So enough about OJ.
00:14:05Enough about media.
00:14:06Enough about press conference.
00:14:06Let's get to the real football.
00:14:08Jeff Howard, the athletic, and on the back end, another four minute drill.
00:14:11We have Jonathan Jones, only professional quarterback, but a professional pilot who
00:14:16let off and said he got a big say.
00:14:20Bold is not bold enough of a word.
00:14:22An audacious ask by a next teammate who said, oh, you can fly a plane.
00:14:27How about you take me almost to the I don't want to say the equator, but pretty close.
00:14:31OK, here comes Jeff.
00:14:33How here comes Jonathan Jones.
00:14:34Enjoy week one.
00:14:35Real football.
00:14:36All right.
00:14:36As promised, Jeff, how Jeff, you know, every time I got to say it.
00:14:40National NFL insider for the athletic.
00:14:44It's been three months since we had you on.
00:14:46We're doing a little Patriots, a little big picture stuff.
00:14:49And I was thinking about the last time you came on.
00:14:51I was at a hotel in Dallas covering the Celtics.
00:14:54There was a different presidential candidate available on one side.
00:14:59The Patriots were most in the news because Drake May had not competed for the number
00:15:04one job, but had been promoted from number three to number two, all of which is to say
00:15:09it's been a long time since he hung out.
00:15:10Thanks for coming up.
00:15:11Of course, it's been it's been a little too long.
00:15:14Yeah.
00:15:14All right.
00:15:15So you did yet another training camp tour this summer.
00:15:18And before we get into the Patriots offense, their defense, make some picks and talk about
00:15:22the game Sunday with the Bengals, which now is complicated by Jamar Chase.
00:15:27Calling himself a game time decision, not really practicing the last six weeks, maybe
00:15:31since I was in Dallas, and then we'll call a game and do some prize picks picks.
00:15:36Let's get into a little scuttlebutt around the league when you talk to other teams about
00:15:40the Patriots.
00:15:41Some people, generally speaking.
00:15:43So some of this is spawned from the league survey that I had that ran this week where
00:15:47it's like who are three teams that will surprise in a good way, bad way.
00:15:51There was only one official answer that the Patriots would surprise in a good way, which
00:15:55basically means exceed expectations.
00:15:58But there were people who were considering using the Patriots and just kind of discarded
00:16:01them when they put their official three teams.
00:16:04So there's some belief that the Patriots are going to bounce back in relative fashion.
00:16:09Like, let's keep things in perspective here.
00:16:13Number one, they have a brutal schedule.
00:16:15And number two, they're still at the first stage, more or less of a rebuild.
00:16:20That's going to take quite a while.
00:16:21So, you know, when you talk about relative fashion, is this like your cousin who got
00:16:26expelled from high school and then like now enrolled in community college and got through
00:16:29a semester?
00:16:29Like, what do you want?
00:16:30Like, it's you're going to bounce back in relative fashion of all the relatives.
00:16:34Hey, I fail out of a certain university in New England and wound up in community college
00:16:39and I turned out just fine.
00:16:41OK, right.
00:16:42Yeah, that's you're one of the rebuild.
00:16:43Jeff, I rebuild.
00:16:44Yeah, we're all here for a happy ending.
00:16:46So everything will be just fine for the Patriots because of that.
00:16:50I mean, look, I think, you know, they should be competitive.
00:16:52They should play hard.
00:16:53I think there's going to be a little bit of a reinvigoration under the new staff.
00:16:57I think all the things that you're hearing about, like the good vibes and all that stuff,
00:17:02I think that will translate like to a better product on the field.
00:17:06I still don't believe the Patriots are going to win many games this season, but, you know,
00:17:11generally I think.
00:17:13So everyone's like lukewarm about them.
00:17:15There was except for that one person who said they'll exceed expectations.
00:17:18No one was really firm about the Patriots.
00:17:21Just they are what they are.
00:17:22Yeah, I mean, and exceed expectations.
00:17:25If you're the Patriots, what's that mean?
00:17:26Like seven wins.
00:17:28And quite frankly, like I don't know if seven wins is really all that good of a season because
00:17:33that puts you like drafting 10th or 12th or something.
00:17:36And that's that's not ideal.
00:17:39You know, I'm sure we can get into this too, but like I still maintain that best case scenario.
00:17:43They play hard, similar to the Cardinals last year.
00:17:46They show that they can adapt to the scheme.
00:17:49They're going to be difficult to beat.
00:17:51Teams are going to walk away from these games on Sunday and say, oh, wow, you know what?
00:17:55That was a tough team to play.
00:17:56I respect them.
00:17:57They're just not quite there yet.
00:17:59And then at some point you do enough where Drake May is going to give you some positive
00:18:03momentum toward 2025 and, you know, finish with like three or four wins, get you another
00:18:08top five pick and keep building and accelerate that rebuild.
00:18:11I personally think that's the best case scenario.
00:18:14OK, very good.
00:18:15Before we get into the Patriots offense, not only just Sunday against Bengals or this entire
00:18:20season and what that looks like with Drake May or Alex Van Pelt or Jalen Polk or anybody else.
00:18:25Jeff, I have a question for you.
00:18:26If you do not have a press pass and you needed to go to certain football games, do you have
00:18:30a particular site that may or may not be called GameTime.co that you would prefer to find
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00:18:37I'm willing to listen.
00:18:39I think you should go to GameTime.
00:18:41And here's the thing.
00:18:42I've talked about them before.
00:18:43I've gone to Red Sox games this year using GameTime.
00:18:45But you are listening to this podcast because you're a football fan and the Patriots have
00:18:48a home opener against Mike McDonald, Jeff's new best friend.
00:18:50They're going to play Miami and Houston in October.
00:18:53The best time of year, in my opinion, for Gillette Stadium and then the Jets just before
00:18:56Halloween.
00:18:57I've told you already the Patriots are beating a playoff team.
00:19:00I think it'll be one of them.
00:19:01If not, maybe the Chargers who come in December or the Bills, whoever it is, go to GameTime
00:19:06where they've got the lowest price guarantee and credit you 110 percent of the difference
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00:19:18Very helpful when I go to Fenway.
00:19:19So do all of this with GameTime picks, which filters out the fluff that only show you incredible
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00:19:46Download GameTime today.
00:19:47Because what time is it?
00:19:49It's GameTime.
00:19:50On to the Patriots offense.
00:19:52So I just want to ask you a simple question.
00:19:55Who gets more starts this season?
00:19:56Jacoby Brissett or Drake May?
00:20:00Drake May, because I think the wins and losses.
00:20:06I think you know how my feelings are.
00:20:08Like, I just don't think they're going to win enough for Jacoby to justify maintaining
00:20:11that job.
00:20:12I mean, at some point you're going to need to concentrate on 2025.
00:20:15If somehow they exceed expectations, let's say they're four and three in the first month
00:20:20and a half, and all of a sudden that kind of forces their hand, they have to stick with
00:20:24Jacoby Brissett.
00:20:25But if you're not winning, at some point you just have to focus on the future.
00:20:29And with Drake May coming on the last couple weeks of training camp in the preseason, you've
00:20:33got to fall back on that and say, hey, this guy might not have given you the best chance
00:20:38to win now or in week one through week X.
00:20:42But at this point, the winning isn't happening.
00:20:43So it's time to see what Drake May can do.
00:20:45Assuming, I shouldn't say assuming, projecting that the offensive line isn't an unmitigated
00:20:52disaster, like if it's the worst offensive line in the league and they can't protect
00:20:56anybody, then you got to try to figure out what you're going to do.
00:20:59But I just I don't think the wins are going to come.
00:21:02The schedule is too hard.
00:21:03And I think eventually you have to build toward next season.
00:21:09I am with you.
00:21:09The other way to answer this question, right, is assuming that if and when Drake May does
00:21:14take the reins.
00:21:15And it will be sometime this season.
00:21:16Let's be clear about that.
00:21:17Do you believe that will happen before or after Halloween or actually the week after?
00:21:23So they're going to play the Jets on October 27th.
00:21:26That's week eight, right?
00:21:27If Jacoby Brissett starts the next game, which off the top of my head is not reaching, but
00:21:31it's the first week in November, that'll get you nine starts.
00:21:34And to me, I think unless they're competitive enough or the situation is just so bad that,
00:21:41as I said in the beginning, as Elliot Wolfe told me, we think the worst thing you can
00:21:44do is put a guy in before he's ready and then have to take him out.
00:21:47Like, that means you're basically believing that they'll sit Drake May until Thanksgiving.
00:21:51And I know as you've written and talked about reported, they've got time and they know it
00:21:56and they're going to use that time.
00:21:57But I do think because of how Drake closed the gap late in the year, and I've circled
00:22:02that second Jets game, October 27th, right after they get back from London's week eight,
00:22:06that to me, even as good as the Jets defense is, would be an ideal time or when I think
00:22:11things will line up to put Drake May in there.
00:22:13So I'm with you.
00:22:14We talked a lot about the quarterbacks.
00:22:16I think everyone knows what Jacoby is somewhere between the 25th and 30th best quarterback
00:22:20in the league.
00:22:20One number that's being overlooked, though, and Doug Cide, your friend and mine, did a
00:22:24great job writing about this this week, as I've said before, but didn't dive in as deep.
00:22:281.4% interception rate for Jacoby percent in his career, lowest in NFL history.
00:22:37Wow.
00:22:37So as we all watch Mac Jones give the ball away a la candy on Halloween late last year,
00:22:43and Bailey's happy to do the same, that just stopping the bleeding in that kind of way,
00:22:47I think is going to have a bigger impact than we know.
00:22:50Am I right or wrong, though?
00:22:53Oh, yeah, absolutely.
00:22:55Because that's going to keep the defense engaged.
00:22:57I mean, I think one thing that happened last year was the defense was looking across the
00:23:01ball and saying, you guys can't score.
00:23:03You're giving the ball away.
00:23:05You're putting them in bad field position.
00:23:07And as much as you can possibly, you know, the defense deserves credit for not kind of
00:23:13folding up shop earlier than they did.
00:23:16And I'm not saying they were bad by any stretch, but toward the end of the season, like they
00:23:20just weren't as inspired.
00:23:22And who can blame them for it?
00:23:23I mean, if you what did the offense have, like three or four straight or they had like
00:23:27three or four straight games when they allowed 10 or fewer points and they lost them all
00:23:31like they were the first team in like 85 years to do something like that.
00:23:35I mean, that that is a soul crushing type of thing for a defense to endure.
00:23:40And you see with teams, you know, two or three teams like that almost every single year.
00:23:44Look what happened with the Jets at times last season.
00:23:47And, you know, defensively, like they were supposed to be outstanding.
00:23:51And they had they had mental lapses because they knew they weren't going to win a lot
00:23:56of those games.
00:23:57So if Jacoby, you know, whether or not I don't know, ceiling is a top 20 offense.
00:24:03And I think that's being generous.
00:24:06Let's say they are.
00:24:07They're the 20th ranked offense.
00:24:09But Jacoby's keeping the ball secure.
00:24:12He's not giving it away.
00:24:13And they're at least able to get into the fourth quarter of some of these games saying,
00:24:17all right, well, a couple of things go right.
00:24:19Maybe you steal one here.
00:24:20You know, again, that's going to keep the defense playing harder.
00:24:22And I think that is an important aspect.
00:24:26So I think that's a good point.
00:24:28And especially as someone who talked to Adrian Phillips and Ivanka after a couple of those
00:24:31losses.
00:24:32And they were telling me, well, I guess we got to hold zero next week.
00:24:34And I went as far as to say, well, I'd say Parker dropped the ball and Taekwon's got
00:24:38to bring in that ball.
00:24:39Like there is a it's not tangible, right?
00:24:42The things that you're talking about.
00:24:43But there is something to say, hey, when the season's inevitably lost, like we all expected
00:24:47to be in it.
00:24:47That's fine.
00:24:48This is year one of a rebuild.
00:24:50How do you keep guys fighting?
00:24:51It's not just the coaching, which is designed to organize and motivate.
00:24:55That's the job of the coaching staff.
00:24:57But offensively, can you motivate your own teammates?
00:25:00And I think Jacoby or Drake will do that because Drake also for all the concerns about
00:25:06throw certain interceptions, try to be Superman in college.
00:25:08His turnover worthy play rate as a college player was among the best in the country in
00:25:13the FBS.
00:25:14So I think that was a little overstated.
00:25:16And even when you could admit, and I can too, he threw some bad picks late in the year last
00:25:20year for North Carolina.
00:25:21You understood them to a degree because of the lack of surrounding talent around him.
00:25:24It's not great now that he's in the NFL, but we'll move on quarterbacks aside.
00:25:28Give me just an X factor where you're talking about that ceiling being 20, maybe 22 second
00:25:33best 20, 22nd best offense in the league.
00:25:36They will get there if blank or if they that this position or player does not perform,
00:25:42they might might might be 32nd as opposed to 22nd.
00:25:46I think they're going to need to steal some yards.
00:25:49And by that, I mean, you're going to need some explosive players.
00:25:52And, you know, I think you're going to look at Pop Douglas and say, you're, of course,
00:25:56you're going to be incredibly valuable.
00:25:58Can you make some explosive plays where you can turn, let's say, a 15 yard gain into 40?
00:26:04So you don't have to.
00:26:05I mean, if if defenses are going to play a shell and force the Patriots to methodically
00:26:09work their way down the field, I think we all know how that's going to go.
00:26:13If somebody like Javon Baker, who I would defer to you on that might be inactive on
00:26:19Sunday, but if somebody like Javon Baker can look like he did at least early, early going
00:26:24and show some of that explosiveness.
00:26:26I mean, maybe he could be somebody like that.
00:26:28I mean, I don't know if that can be Taekwon Thornton's game.
00:26:33It might not be.
00:26:34I mean, I wouldn't I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that.
00:26:37So or if like Ramond all of a sudden, you know, find some sort of burst and is, you know,
00:26:44a nightmare for for defenses to kind of bring down.
00:26:46But, you know, that's a lot of ifs and there's no sure things there.
00:26:50I mean, Pop Douglas might be a sure thing is a quality possession type of receiver who can
00:26:55do some shifty things after the catch.
00:26:57But there's a lot of ifs.
00:26:59And without knowing what the offensive line is going to look like, without having a true
00:27:04fundamental understanding of what Alex Van Pelt's offense is going to look like, including
00:27:08some people who work with him who weren't quite sure which type of scheme he would defer
00:27:13to more than any of the others.
00:27:17You know, there's just so much to project.
00:27:19And I it's, you know, you don't really want to go into a season with if, if, if, if, if.
00:27:28OK, so you want five X factors.
00:27:30That's what you want.
00:27:31That's the one you know, five.
00:27:34Yeah, look, that's all fair.
00:27:36I think we know where the Patriots are.
00:27:37I think if you're picking one particular, you know, let's call it a hinge point, you
00:27:42know, or a pivot point that this could, again, take the offense almost single handedly to
00:27:47heights that people don't expect right now or bring them all the way down to the bottom.
00:27:50I would say, to your point about explosive plays, I don't see Demario Douglas as being
00:27:53that player, though I do think he will be fed early and often.
00:27:56And we're going to talk about him later.
00:27:59I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think it's Taequann Thornton or KJ Osborne.
00:28:04And I say that knowing that I think Jalen Polk will start sooner than even Drake May.
00:28:09I think he'll be in the starting lineup.
00:28:10He deserves those snaps.
00:28:11He'll take over one of the outside spots, probably at the Z.
00:28:14But this is a downfield deep passing attack.
00:28:17And you need guys downfield that percent and or may trust to throw it up there.
00:28:21And right now, the way they've been giving these reps to players like Taequann and KJ
00:28:25Osborne, they're going to start soon and they're faster.
00:28:28They're better downfield than Jalen Polk, who can win contest to catch situations, but
00:28:32has a more well-rounded game.
00:28:34So if this offense is going to boom, it will have to be downfield, literally dropped or
00:28:40not literally, but dropping bombs to one of those two guys as we saw percent to a little
00:28:43bit.
00:28:44So that's why I think it's with them.
00:28:45I do think it's more likely that one, if not both of them bust in that kind of scenario
00:28:49and Polk starts and we get more Pop Douglas and you'll have more tall personnel with Henry
00:28:53and Hooper.
00:28:53And they're not going to be X factors.
00:28:55They're just steady Eddie's walking around and jerseys that start with an eight.
00:28:59Like that's that's what they are.
00:29:00Regular tight ends, regular dudes.
00:29:01But X factors, I think it has to be the guys downfield also because we haven't talked about
00:29:05this.
00:29:06The offensive line is what it is.
00:29:09That unit is not going to get into the top 20.
00:29:11So we can talk about, well, they protect the left time.
00:29:13I just I don't think that's a bankable thing about this offense that the offensive line
00:29:17is going to outperform expectation.
00:29:20Yeah, I mean, the only way you can is if you really, truly scheme it up and you can count
00:29:25on the quick passing game.
00:29:27But I would feel a whole lot better about that if if a much more proven starter, you
00:29:32know, I was going to screw it.
00:29:33If Tom Brady was a quarterback, I would feel good about him being able to get the ball
00:29:37out quickly.
00:29:39That's just, you know, obviously that's not realistic.
00:29:41And but you know what?
00:29:42Like Alex Van Pelt, we've talked about this before, and I think you kind of rolled your
00:29:45eyes at me.
00:29:46But like what Alex Van Pelt did with that offense and Joe Flacco last year, I thought
00:29:50was one of the coolest stories in the league, especially in December.
00:29:53Did I roll my eyes?
00:29:55Maybe I agree with that now hearing it, but I may have somebody else.
00:29:59Somebody else.
00:29:59It could have been somebody else then.
00:30:02But I thought that was a really cool development.
00:30:04I thought the Joe Flacco story last year was one of my favorite stories of the regular
00:30:09season.
00:30:09The guy came off the couch basically on Thanksgiving and had like the best, the best
00:30:15statistical stretch of his career.
00:30:17Like that's wild.
00:30:18That's not supposed to happen.
00:30:20So like if Alex Van Pelt's a miracle worker and it translates to this season, then fantastic.
00:30:27But that's another one of those ifs.
00:30:30Yeah.
00:30:31All right.
00:30:31I just talked about I don't think the offensive line can exceed expectations.
00:30:34This is a long term play more than most, mostly just given the talent available, right?
00:30:38It's not that they're not going to try.
00:30:39It's not that Scott Peters stinks as an offensive line coach.
00:30:41To be clear, it's just you've got, you know, two journeyman backups fighting for a spot
00:30:46of left guard right now due to injury and then a fourth round rookie, a right guard.
00:30:49And then David Andrews and Michael Winona, you're crossing your fingers at left tackle
00:30:52all season.
00:30:53Overall, though, does this offense, if I put them 27th in the league, do you think
00:31:02they'll be over under a bottom five unit in the NFL or would they be better than that?
00:31:08No, I think that's fair.
00:31:1027 is probably pretty fair.
00:31:12I mean, it's over under, not fair or unfair, Jeff.
00:31:15I know I picked a good line.
00:31:19I'll go under.
00:31:21OK, yeah.
00:31:23I think, you know, like 27th or worse.
00:31:26Right, right, right.
00:31:27Yeah, I look, I started this QB stock report this week.
00:31:31We're going to do this every Tuesday.
00:31:33I'm not here to trying to plug that, but I think I had Jacobi as 30th or 31st in quarterback
00:31:40rankings.
00:31:40So, you know, the one thing that could change that is if Drake May comes in and kind of
00:31:45lights a fire under the offense.
00:31:46And, you know, another part of that, too, could be all right, let's say there's six
00:31:51games in seven games and they've got one win.
00:31:53They're going to turn to Drake May, but at least they figured out something with the
00:31:56offensive line and they know that they're going to be able to do some things to help
00:31:59Drake May find some success.
00:32:01They they rely on that natural ability of his and and he starts to play really well.
00:32:07I'm not saying anywhere close to like a CJ Stroud level, but just really well for a
00:32:12rookie, you know, that that gets them over on the above 27th.
00:32:17I don't know, ranking closer to 20, I guess, is what I'm trying to say.
00:32:21I just it's it's hard for me to sit here and say that I have too many questions on the
00:32:25offensive line.
00:32:27Still a little unproven at the skill positions, of course, not knowing what's going on a
00:32:31quarterback in a new system and saying I would feel good about, you know, being better than
00:32:36a 27th ranked offense in terms of points scored.
00:32:39I think they'll be better than bottom five.
00:32:42But then you're talking 26th or 27th.
00:32:44Like, I don't think they really crack the top 20, as you suggested.
00:32:46And I would say the optimist case would be, hey, guys, they're going to run the ball and
00:32:51they have good running backs.
00:32:52You know, I'm counting.
00:32:53I'm baking in an Antonio Gibson bounce back there, right?
00:32:55Like, and there's a big, you know, fumble fly in the middle of those, you know, whatever
00:33:02I just baked.
00:33:03But if you remove that and he doesn't have to play a major role, even though I think
00:33:06he will, as both the receiver and rusher, like there are a lot of teams with the worst
00:33:10running backs, even contending teams in those two.
00:33:13Of course, the problem is baked into their results and their stats and their production
00:33:18is the fact that they need holes to be blocked for them.
00:33:21And the offensive line is just not really suited to do that right now.
00:33:24Outside zone scheme should help a little bit.
00:33:25I think reminder, Stephenson will average more than four yards to carry like he did
00:33:29last year.
00:33:30But the numbers, even after contact for him, weren't as good as we saw a year ago.
00:33:33So the case would be they can control the ball.
00:33:36They'll run it.
00:33:36They'll play good defense.
00:33:38I just don't think that formula is going to work.
00:33:40You need something to complement that.
00:33:42And to your point, Drake may creating on his own, extending plays to overcome the offensive
00:33:46line or being able to throw it deep to catch up quickly as opposed to methodical offense
00:33:50could help that.
00:33:51I just think it's too early to bank on that right now in the season.
00:33:55All right, let's go to defense.
00:33:57We have some breaking news.
00:33:58T Higgins.
00:33:59I mentioned the beginning tweak this hamstring this week in practice, generally not a good
00:34:03thing, especially if you have a hamstring problem is officially doubtful for Sunday.
00:34:07So before we get into Cincinnati, I want to say that because Jamar Chase, if he's limited,
00:34:14you have the Bengals two best offensive players outside of Joe Burrow and certainly his two
00:34:18best receivers not on the field at times whenever Chase would sit, assuming that T Higgins also
00:34:24sits the entire game, which most people who are doubtful tend to do zooming out, though.
00:34:28Similar question for the defense.
00:34:29If I put the over under for their final season ranking and points a lap, you're either and
00:34:35it's 11 and a half.
00:34:36Do you think this will be a top 11 defense or 12 down to 32?
00:34:41Somewhere 12 and down because last year I believe they were 15th.
00:34:47Yes, higher than other metrics.
00:34:49But yeah, but if we're going by points scored, which is my favorite one to go with because
00:34:54I know what it means, it's, you know, losing bar more for potentially the entire season,
00:35:02but certainly the opening stretch and probably then some having to trade match you on who I
00:35:07know was out for a chunk of last season anyway, but still would have been your best defensive
00:35:11player.
00:35:12You know, there's that's a lot and it's hard for me to look at that and say, all right,
00:35:17well, you just took two of your best pieces and they're not here anymore, regardless of
00:35:21what they did last year.
00:35:23It's hard for me to say that they're going to all of a sudden be a better defense.
00:35:27So I think somewhere between 15th and 20th.
00:35:30Yeah, I agree.
00:35:31I think 12 is a good place to aim.
00:35:34And again, it just comes down to the talent is the talent and people don't want to hear
00:35:37this.
00:35:37We've been talking about this for a while, but if you're an offensive coordinator, you're
00:35:40Dan pitcher of the Bengals trying to scheme against them right now.
00:35:44And there's actually video that leaked of a, I think it was seven on sevens at Bengals
00:35:48practice this week where you have the scout team defense wearing certain pennies of the
00:35:52numbers of the players that the staff has circled.
00:35:55Like, okay, we need to know where Jabril Peppers is.
00:35:57There was a guy with a five Jersey.
00:35:59There was another one with a 23 Jersey.
00:36:01Then you get down to 48, which folks probably know, but some might not.
00:36:05That's Jelani to buy those three guys.
00:36:08Plus Christian Gonzalez are the players we need to watch for or know when you're scheming
00:36:13for this defense.
00:36:14It's not 90 Christian Barber.
00:36:15He mentioned it's not number nine anymore.
00:36:17Matt Judon, who's obviously a Falcon.
00:36:19And there's only so much you can do playing tight together defense when you don't have
00:36:23identifiable problems that offenses go, okay, he's a game wrecker.
00:36:27We need to double team him, block him, chip, whatever it is.
00:36:30And again, I think it'll be a good defense, but considering the schedule and the blue
00:36:34chip talent might just be Christian Gonzalez.
00:36:36It's a little bit to ask for.
00:36:37But again, I'll do the same question.
00:36:39If this defense outperforms expectation, they are top 10, let's say, or they drop 20 or
00:36:46below that X factor, that hinge point, a pivot point who or what player or position would
00:36:52that be in your mind?
00:36:53You know, I wanted to say I was fully prepared until about 10 seconds ago to say it has to
00:36:59be Christian Gonzalez.
00:37:00But if you want to say what's going to take them to get into the top 10 to 12, I don't
00:37:06think a single cornerback is going to be capable of elevating you that much.
00:37:10Now, granted, Gonzalez is playing more than four games and playing at a high level would
00:37:15certainly qualify for a team that could be in the better than 15th.
00:37:20But if you want to get into that level where you're really causing concern for opposing
00:37:27offenses, it's going to be Josh Uche and Keon White.
00:37:31And I think those guys are both going to have to have outstanding, like the best seasons
00:37:35of their careers.
00:37:36And, you know, we've been waiting on Josh Uche to kind of do that for quite a while.
00:37:43I mean, if he doesn't do it by the time he's 45, we'll still be sitting here on this podcast
00:37:48saying we're waiting for the Josh Uche breakout.
00:37:51But I think that has to be the difference.
00:37:53You need to have some game records on the edge.
00:37:55And look, we've seen it flashes.
00:37:58That doesn't necessarily like it's not like totally unrealistic to think that it could
00:38:01happen, but eventually you need guys to break from who they've shown you they are.
00:38:07Yeah, and I've used the line, you know, can I just see Christian Gonzalez start a fifth
00:38:12game?
00:38:12Like we annoy him and see him as a blue chip player.
00:38:15He was a surefire first round pick.
00:38:16Excellent athlete plays a premium position, everything you want physically all that last
00:38:20September.
00:38:21But I'm just not willing to crown him yet until I see it more, especially given like
00:38:24so.
00:38:24So some Keon White, can I just see him get a fifth quarterback hit the key?
00:38:30Or it might be six if he had five last year.
00:38:32I know it's four or five to me, even if the Patriots believe wholeheartedly, he's ready
00:38:37to replace Matt June on a four time pro bowler who nearly set the single season record for
00:38:42sacks for your franchise two seasons ago.
00:38:44And then the year before that, he needs to show me a little bit more.
00:38:48But to the point, I think if you're going, OK, what could change is it is the ability
00:38:52to rush with four, because if not, this will be a high blitz defense and it doesn't have
00:38:56to be like a standard four down rush.
00:38:58They'll need to get creative to it with it, which brings me to my X factor.
00:39:02And I said, a player or position, and I'm breaking the rules because I'm picking a coach
00:39:07minus DeMarcus Cummington.
00:39:09He's taken over the defense and they expect to spin the dial and be creative and use some
00:39:14pressures and all these different things.
00:39:15He needs to be locked in more than anybody.
00:39:18This is the rookie that needs to stand out for the Patriots to take a leap or surprise
00:39:22the season, because the less talent you have, the more coaching matters, the more talent
00:39:27you have.
00:39:28Just don't screw it up.
00:39:29Put them in the right place.
00:39:30Let them go to work.
00:39:31This team lost a lot of talent, which means that's more pressure on the coaching staff.
00:39:35And guys are never going to talk publicly in a way about their boss.
00:39:40That makes them sound bad.
00:39:41So I'm not just going to say what John Jones told me and Kyle Duggar did about Covington.
00:39:45I'm just going to run with in print.
00:39:46But there are ways to say he's okay without telling me what they did, which is they're
00:39:53very excited about it.
00:39:54They're bought in.
00:39:55They know what good defense looks like, what it feels like.
00:39:58And it sounds like Covington is ready to put them in a place in a position to do that week
00:40:02after week after week.
00:40:03And if he doesn't, we'll see it and there'll be bottom 20 bottom 20 20 or worse.
00:40:09I mean, look, we've heard enough good things about Covington for quite a while.
00:40:13And from my impression, he's a player's coach.
00:40:17So that's important.
00:40:18It's not like I mean, not to you know, I'm not trying to go after low hanging fruit here.
00:40:23But like Matt Patricia, when he left for Detroit, we heard so many good things from the Patriots
00:40:27who were like, oh, you know what?
00:40:28He's like a brother, like a father, an uncle, whatever, like so many guys loved him.
00:40:32And then he went to Detroit and he was the opposite of that.
00:40:34So you want to see how people handle these promotions.
00:40:38Well, he was just the uncle at Thanksgiving that everyone rushes to take a seat at the
00:40:41opposite end of the table from.
00:40:44It wasn't it wasn't great.
00:40:46Not in Detroit.
00:40:46And we know the history or Philly or pretty much everyone but underdog fantasy where you
00:40:53can watch him on coach with Bill Belichick once a week on YouTube.
00:40:55Yeah.
00:40:55So but yeah, we don't need to spend too much more time on that.
00:41:00My point was like, you know, Covington wants to be a player's coach.
00:41:03He wants to empower the players.
00:41:06I think that is only natural to to be working with Gerard Mayo to feel that way,
00:41:11to coach that way.
00:41:12So look, I'm intrigued by what Covington can do.
00:41:15Yeah.
00:41:16All right.
00:41:16Are they going to exceed or, you know what?
00:41:18Let me step back.
00:41:19I think a couple players of note, too, that would be outside looking in runners up for
00:41:23this X Factor conversation.
00:41:24Keanu White is a big one you already hit on.
00:41:27I talk about Daniel Ekowale, who did not receive exactly a ring endorsement from his
00:41:31position coach, Jerry Montgomery.
00:41:32And I think you probably miss this because this is like in the weeds, Patriot beat stuff.
00:41:36He said, yeah, I mean, he had a decent camp.
00:41:38It's time to shit or get off the pot.
00:41:41From his position, go.
00:41:42It's like, we'll see what happens behind him is Jeremiah Farms Jr.
00:41:46and Eric Johnson.
00:41:47Johnson, who they claimed last week off of waivers two weeks ago.
00:41:50It's it's getting it's not getting late soon, but it's a very shallow defensive line group.
00:41:56So health there is going to be paramount.
00:41:57And I forgot the guy who is going to be most paramount, especially to the run defense,
00:42:01which is Devon Gotcha.
00:42:01If he goes down, the middle collapses in a way that, like, if you lose your starting
00:42:06shortstop, your defense is deeply affected in baseball.
00:42:09And that's what he's going to be for them, not only just holding up double teams, but
00:42:14really preventing the guys I just mentioned.
00:42:16Eric Johnson, you can even go to Christian Hill in the practice squad from having to
00:42:19step in and play a position they're just not equipped to handle.
00:42:23So there's them.
00:42:24Jabril Pevers, I think, is going to make the Pro Bowl third safety.
00:42:26Jalen Hawkins is going to be really important the way they love to play nickel and three
00:42:30safety their base personnel.
00:42:31And sometimes I'll go three corner.
00:42:33Marcus Jones brings me to another one.
00:42:35Didn't have a great camp hurt for some of that.
00:42:37And that's to be it.
00:42:38But if I'm the Bengals and Higgins and Chase were healthy, I go, all right, I'll just pick
00:42:43on the slot.
00:42:44Like, let's see what 25 Scott because he didn't play basically all of last year and the year
00:42:48before didn't even really play in the slot.
00:42:53Cosign beautiful at all.
00:42:57Will they exceed expectations or underwhelm?
00:42:59And I said 11 and a half, which you had said, you know, I'll take the under.
00:43:03So let me move this down for you.
00:43:0413 and a half.
00:43:05Do you think this will be a top 13 just above average defense by the end of the year?
00:43:10No, I think they'll be average.
00:43:12So you're looking at 15 to 20 since you had already asked this question.
00:43:14Answered this question.
00:43:16That's where I'm going.
00:43:17All right.
00:43:17Very good.
00:43:18So here we go.
00:43:19Pat Spangles this Sunday.
00:43:20I already told you about Chase Jamar Chase told you about T Higgins Patriots offensive
00:43:24lines a little dinged up, but not so bad.
00:43:26And it looks like Antonio Gibson will be questionable.
00:43:28So as you are setting your fantasy lineups and you are putting in perhaps some money
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00:43:48I did this last night looking ahead to baseball games and it was easy.
00:43:53It was simple.
00:43:54I didn't have to watch the whole game.
00:43:55I just checked my price picks line up a little bit later and it could be pop Douglas catches.
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00:44:12Let me say that again.
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00:44:43All right.
00:44:43I tease this last week.
00:44:44I'm going to give out two picks right now.
00:44:47These are very simple.
00:44:48Tomorrow.
00:44:49Douglas somehow has an over line of 36 and a half receiving yards.
00:44:55You can pick more or you can pick less.
00:44:57I'm going to go with more as a guy who is the leading receiver all of camp prime for
00:45:00a year to leap their best receiver period.
00:45:02I believe he will have more than 36 and a half receiving yards for the Patriots on Sunday
00:45:07on the opposite side, because when you make these lines with price picks, you have to
00:45:10pick someone from another team.
00:45:11Let's go to the Bengals.
00:45:13Even if you think the Patriots are going to win or if you think they'll get blown out.
00:45:17I like Evan McPherson, the Bengals kicker, one of the best in the entire league to go
00:45:21more than one and a half field goals.
00:45:23We had four last night with Chiefs Bengals.
00:45:26Red zone offense is really difficult, but especially early in the season.
00:45:29We don't have your timing down.
00:45:31Everything is new and you're playing a pretty good defense, which, you know, the Patriots
00:45:34have.
00:45:34I bet Evan McPherson hits two field goals or more, and you should put that in more receiving
00:45:39yards for tomorrow.
00:45:40Douglas more field goals for Evan McPherson, and those are your price picks picks of the
00:45:44week.
00:45:45So if you're picking a winner, Jeff, on Sunday, Pat's Bengals.
00:45:50I'll lay out a case for a possible Patriots upset, but I'll do that after the fact.
00:45:54Just give me a give me a score here.
00:45:56Give me give me.
00:45:56How do you?
00:45:56How do you see this game going?
00:45:58Well, as we'll jump off of what you were just saying, I was thinking the Bengals would have
00:46:0323 points, which would give McPherson three field goals.
00:46:07So I would say Bengals 23.
00:46:10Patriots 13.
00:46:14Okay, why?
00:46:16I mean, the Bengals are a better team.
00:46:17I think Joe Burrow is going to play ticked off this season.
00:46:21Missing as much time as he did last year, having to play through as much as he did last
00:46:26year.
00:46:26We haven't seen the real Joe Burrow in over a year now, and if there's anybody who represents
00:46:34the I hate doing this, but I'm not comparing him to Tom Brady.
00:46:39But if there's anybody who has that killer instinct like that, I'm going to take a personal
00:46:44thing like Brady.
00:46:46Like, I think Burrow is the closest thing to it in today's current landscape.
00:46:50So I think you're going to see him all ticked off, regardless of who he has on the field
00:46:55with him.
00:46:55I do agree.
00:46:56I think they should should struggle because, as you said, T Higgins is doubtful, which
00:47:00means he's probably not going to play.
00:47:03That's the definition of doubtful.
00:47:04Probably not.
00:47:05So we'll do that.
00:47:07And then we don't know what Jamar Chase is going to do.
00:47:10I would assume he's going to play, but we'll see.
00:47:12But and they lost Tyler Boyd, too.
00:47:15So this is and Joe Mixon.
00:47:16So this is a team.
00:47:17Joe Burrow is kind of working through a bunch of stuff here, but I still think he is the
00:47:22second or third best quarterback in the league, and I think that'll be enough for him to kind
00:47:26of get the Bengals through what I expect to be a sloppy game.
00:47:31It will be a sloppy game, and the Bengals are particularly sloppy in weeks one and two,
00:47:36and that's since 2020.
00:47:37They're one in seven in weeks one and two over the last four seasons, and that is my
00:47:42starting case for a possible Patriots upset, which I said last week on this podcast.
00:47:48I think the Patriots will be the last winless team in the NFL, so I don't think they're
00:47:51going to win Sunday.
00:47:52But if you were to believe, and I think this is absolutely possible, it's because the Bengals
00:47:55start slowly.
00:47:56Their two best receivers are either limited or going to be entirely out, which it sounds
00:48:00like Higgins will be out.
00:48:01Joe Burrow feels as good as he ever has, something he told reporters this week.
00:48:06But if you're throwing two guys that are perfectly, I would, you know, you could say
00:48:10coverable, but easily defended a man-to-man coverage that unlocks everything for a defense
00:48:15that can now apply more pressure to an offensive line that did add Trent Brown.
00:48:20We'll see what version has Orlando Brown Jr., but in the interior, like, it's kind of average.
00:48:25So this is where I think the Covington piece comes in is of what they're going to introduce
00:48:28in all these different wrinkles, and that's all the Patriots need is just to hang around,
00:48:31keep this close.
00:48:32So the Bengals are not particularly explosive.
00:48:34It plays into your good defense, and it comes out of the offense, protecting the ball.
00:48:38Again, 1.4% interception rate, first career, lower than Tom Brady, lower than everybody,
00:48:43but Aaron Rodgers, who has the same career rate in NFL history.
00:48:46If they protect the ball, can run the ball in a defense that was 28th against the run
00:48:51last year by yards allowed per carry and worse than that by DV away.
00:48:56Oh, and they lost DJ reader.
00:48:58Oh, and his replacement, Chris Jenkins, a big defensive tackle to Michigan is the second
00:49:01round pick is hurt and not playing.
00:49:04That to me is a meaty open interior.
00:49:06That defense, the Patriots can play ball control.
00:49:09I'm not saying they will, but I think this game is uglier because of the history, the
00:49:13injuries that the Bengals have right now, and the Patriots will kind of keep this close
00:49:16in a way that, like, we didn't see any real kick returns last night with the Ravens and
00:49:20Chiefs, but people forget how wacky and weird week one gets Jeff, and we could have one
00:49:25of those that breaks this game open at least early.
00:49:27I'm just with you.
00:49:28I think the Bengals do pull away ultimately late because, again, the talent is a talent,
00:49:31but this line of the Patriots being nine point underdogs, the biggest in week one.
00:49:35I keep looking at me like it sounds insane, but that might be a little bit too high.
00:49:42Yeah, I mean, I said I predicted them losing by 10, so I don't want to say it's too high,
00:49:47but I don't know.
00:49:49You know, the other part, too, is Alex Van Pelt is going to know how to game plan against
00:49:53Cincinnati, and I guess we're set to a smaller extent, too.
00:50:01So yeah, I absolutely agree with about 99% of the things that you said about the possibility
00:50:08of an upset, and it starts with Cincinnati, and like you said, the slow starts over the
00:50:13last, what, the previous four seasons.
00:50:17They also have a bit of a history of playing down to their opponents when things aren't
00:50:22going really, really well.
00:50:24So yeah, I mean, I would be surprised if this game wasn't close.
00:50:30I don't know if close will translate to a single digit loss with the Bengals, you know,
00:50:34not pulling away in the fourth quarter, but this is it's one of 15 or 16 really difficult
00:50:42games on this schedule.
00:50:44Yeah, I think I'm going to lean 2013 Cincinnati and part of me wants to go like let's get
00:50:51ugly as hell.
00:50:52Maybe score got me territory on 99, but it's just there's so much here that could go one
00:50:59way or another.
00:50:59But ultimately, you know, if you're going to call the upset, call it, and I'm just not
00:51:03in a position to do that with Nick Leverett and Michael Jordan possibly starting a guard
00:51:07in the Baderian Lowe's like you're returning champion and left tackle like he's going to
00:51:11have to deal with Trey Hendrickson.
00:51:12The Bengals are going to scheme to get Hendrickson one on one or force you force your hand with
00:51:18an overload blitz on the other side, and this is an offensive line that has new coaching
00:51:21seven is new scheme.
00:51:22Some new faces a rookie still in their right car like there's just a lot here.
00:51:25Obviously, for off the Patriots offense, but I think in focusing on that, which we have
00:51:29done most of the summer, you forget that other teams have problems too, and the Bengals problems
00:51:34are cropping up real late in places that they don't want.
00:51:37I just think again like, you know, talking to some guys in the locker room this week
00:51:40said two years ago, they lost 22 to 18.
00:51:42Maybe that was a score gummy.
00:51:44They they knew they could bait burrow into interceptions with the disguises.
00:51:48Now it's a matter of okay, we just need to make him work hard.
00:51:51Stay in the pocket.
00:51:52Go through reads and hopefully the rush gets there.
00:51:53But as we're speaking now, Josh UJ is officially questionable for Sunday.
00:51:57So part of that pastor that we talked about could take a hit.
00:52:00So final season record.
00:52:02You are not high in the Patriots.
00:52:03You think they'll have a bottom five offense?
00:52:05You think their defense will be average?
00:52:06We didn't talk about special teams.
00:52:07We're not going to talk about special teams.
00:52:09Where do you think they land record wise at the end of the year?
00:52:12I'm going to go back to four and 13.
00:52:14I just look at and the four.
00:52:17Like they're not they're not going to be a bad four and 13 team.
00:52:21And I'm I hope that doesn't sound like I'm trying to coach it or whatever.
00:52:25I mean, like the I'll use the Cardinals again as an example.
00:52:29I can't remember what their record was last year for four and 13, five and 12,
00:52:32somewhere along those lines where they played hard.
00:52:37You knew they were well coached.
00:52:40Obviously had, you know, Kyler Murray coming back from an injury.
00:52:43But that's a team that drew a lot of teams respect last year.
00:52:47And there's always, you know, the Texans were like that the year before that.
00:52:51So like you can have a four and 13 year and look at it and say,
00:52:54hey, you're building towards something.
00:52:56So I would expect it to be four and 13.
00:52:58But like they have the Titans, the Cardinals are a couple of games.
00:53:03You know, you're probably going to take one from the Jets because you always do.
00:53:06So like there's potentially three wins right there.
00:53:10They'll steal one because, you know, every team steals a game at some point.
00:53:14So that gets you to four.
00:53:17I'm not even I don't even want to predict the Patriots are going to beat the Cardinals
00:53:20because I sit here.
00:53:21I keep saying nice things about them.
00:53:23And and I mean them because it's just that comes from just talking to other people
00:53:28around the league and how highly regarded they really view this team.
00:53:30Not saying the Cardinals are going to win 12 or 13 games.
00:53:33But it's a well coached team that is starting to build a decent amount of talent.
00:53:37A decent amount of talent.
00:53:38So look, it's just if they were playing an average schedule, I might be tempted to say
00:53:43six, seven, maybe even eight wins.
00:53:45But I just I don't see it.
00:53:47It's just it's too hard of a slate.
00:53:49It's not in the cards.
00:53:50So everything is not.
00:53:52It is.
00:53:53I see what you did there.
00:53:54And I'm kind of proud.
00:53:55Kind of proud.
00:53:56I'll take kind of proud.
00:53:57Kind of proud.
00:53:58Again, print the shirts.
00:53:59The 2024 Patriots kind of proud if they get out of here.
00:54:02I'm with you.
00:54:02It you know, no one really holds our feet to the fire in these win loss records at the
00:54:08beginning of season anyway, right?
00:54:09Unless you were super loud, wrong or extreme.
00:54:11And I was loud wrong last year saying nine and eight.
00:54:14I think they'll make a push to the playoffs, all the optimism.
00:54:16And then they just poop their pants and go for 13.
00:54:19This will be OK.
00:54:20I know I'm looking at a rebuilding team.
00:54:22They're not trying wholeheartedly.
00:54:24I would say to win.
00:54:25This is a draft and develop year for 13 is acceptable.
00:54:28This is an understandable one.
00:54:30They will meet the expectations that are set ahead of them, which is their win total over
00:54:33under four and a half.
00:54:35That's just what it is.
00:54:36And it's a schedule.
00:54:36It's a talent, all the stuff that we talked about.
00:54:38So I think they land there as well.
00:54:41There's no such thing as a good three and 14 team.
00:54:43But you know, they lost a lot of games that you just look at.
00:54:46Miss field goal against the Giants at the end of that game.
00:54:49The Colts disaster internationally.
00:54:51Like maybe you get a couple of those bounces and you go six and 11.
00:54:54Everyone's like they weren't that good.
00:54:56But you take it because that puts you in a better position for this offseason.
00:55:00It's a whole other story about free agents, which you can find on my exclusive with Elliot
00:55:03Wolfe, which I talked about at the beginning of this podcast.
00:55:05Anything we didn't mention or anything you've got your eye on?
00:55:07You got like super hot, spicy take about the rest of the league before we get you out of
00:55:10here.
00:55:11I mean, if you want to talk to Mark Chase, since it's Bengals week.
00:55:14Oh, yeah, please.
00:55:16I teach this at the time.
00:55:18What's the latest with Jamar Chase?
00:55:20Jamar Chase has every right to want more than Justin Jefferson.
00:55:24I'm not saying that he deserves more than Justin Jefferson, but he has every right to
00:55:29start the negotiations a penny over thirty five million dollars a year.
00:55:33And I we know he's going to come in.
00:55:36It's somewhere between thirty two and thirty seven.
00:55:39That's way too big of a window to say.
00:55:41We know for sure where it's going to come in.
00:55:43That's probably why you haven't seen enough progress.
00:55:45It's just it's it's hard for me to sit here and watch because like Iook, you knew where
00:55:49he stood.
00:55:50You knew what his his plan was.
00:55:52Did you know?
00:55:54Did you know?
00:55:55You did.
00:55:56I think he was consistent, whereas Chase, I mean, he gets to the point where Zack Taylor
00:56:00says that he's going to practice a couple of times during the the week zero by week,
00:56:05and then he shows up 13 minutes late in street clothes and he's not practicing.
00:56:08So there's a huge disconnect right here.
00:56:11I think you just have to see what the read the writing on the wall with the Bengals franchise
00:56:14history.
00:56:15You got to commit all the way to one direction or all the way to the other.
00:56:18But I don't know if you want to really sit on the fence with these holdings.
00:56:21Just go out and have a great year and you're going to be the highest paid receiver in NFL
00:56:24history easily.
00:56:26Cool.
00:56:27Well, if they're selling TVs to raise money because Mike Brown is so cheap out there in
00:56:32Cincinnati, I don't know.
00:56:33Maybe maybe I show up in street clothes on Sunday if I'm smart, Chase, because I know
00:56:36that would make a lot of Patriots fans listening to this right now.
00:56:38Very, very happy.
00:56:40You've made me happy coming on the show.
00:56:41We have John Jones coming up another four minute drill.
00:56:44I asked him about his worst date ever, and John Jones apparently flakes a lot.
00:56:49Next time we have you on, I might ask you the same question.
00:56:51It's not good.
00:56:53Yep.
00:56:54Thanks.
00:56:56Fantastic.
00:56:58All right.
00:56:58Another four minute drill.
00:56:59Pat's interference podcast.
00:57:00We got John Jones here hanging out with us here today.
00:57:02Just gave him the drill.
00:57:03Football question.
00:57:04Not football question.
00:57:05We start the clock and then we go.
00:57:07We were actually chatting the other day about you flying planes, and this is not the start
00:57:12just yet.
00:57:12This is me buying time so I can pull up the clock on my phone.
00:57:14Have you flown anywhere in the last 48 hours since we last talked?
00:57:1748 hours?
00:57:18No.
00:57:19Okay, good.
00:57:20Well, we're going to start another football question.
00:57:21Here we go.
00:57:23Hardest receiver to cover early in your career?
00:57:26Early in my career.
00:57:27I was in the slot a lot.
00:57:28So Miami had Jarvis Landry.
00:57:30He was a tough cover early in my career.
00:57:32All right.
00:57:33Let's go back to the air.
00:57:33So John learned how to fly.
00:57:35Got his pilot's license not too long ago.
00:57:37I want to know the wildest ask by a friend or family member to you about, oh, hey, can
00:57:41you just bring me here real quick?
00:57:44I don't know.
00:57:44Julon wants to go to the Bahamas.
00:57:46So we'll see.
00:57:47He's an old teammate.
00:57:48He wants to go to the Bahamas.
00:57:49So that's crazy.
00:57:50That's one of the craziest ones.
00:57:51Would that have happened if he had stayed here?
00:57:54Maybe so.
00:57:54We'll never know.
00:57:55He should have stayed.
00:57:56That sounds like a soft no.
00:57:59Moving on.
00:57:59Back to non-football.
00:58:00So Hunger Games wants to make a movie, except that's real life.
00:58:05And it's everyone in this locker room.
00:58:07Who's the last one standing?
00:58:10Me.
00:58:11Like, of course.
00:58:12Of course?
00:58:12Of course it's me.
00:58:13Okay.
00:58:13You got to give me a runner up then.
00:58:14Runner up.
00:58:16After me, who could I say would be next?
00:58:20Um, Big Mike.
00:58:22Big Mike.
00:58:23I think he's a good, good candidate.
00:58:24He knows a lot of information.
00:58:26Maybe Hunter.
00:58:27Some guys who can move a little bit, but know a lot of information at the same time.
00:58:30Okay.
00:58:31I was gonna say Mike is not moving a whole lot of bit.
00:58:32That's why I call him Big Mike.
00:58:35When's the last time you chatted with Bill Belichick?
00:58:37Uh, it's been a while.
00:58:38Been a while.
00:58:38I have to check in on him soon.
00:58:40Yeah.
00:58:40So he's on Instagram now.
00:58:41So I gotta see what that's about.
00:58:43He's on everything.
00:58:44What does that make you feel like?
00:58:46This guy is Mr. Media right now.
00:58:47He's got seven different jobs.
00:58:48Man, he's, he's enjoying it.
00:58:50Looks like he's enjoying where he's at right now.
00:58:52That's what it looks like to me.
00:58:53All right.
00:58:53Closing in on two minutes through the four minute drill.
00:58:56Uh, what's the worst date you ever went on?
00:59:00Worst date.
00:59:01Oh man.
00:59:04It's been some bad ones, but we're not gonna ruin this on the pass.
00:59:07Happy married.
00:59:08So the old days don't matter.
00:59:10I got a good one.
00:59:11Nothing like you screwed this up or like didn't pick up the check or forgot something.
00:59:14Come on.
00:59:15No, I'm pretty.
00:59:15You said a lot.
00:59:16We gotta get one.
00:59:16Oh man.
00:59:17I'm pretty good on dates.
00:59:19I think I've, I've had to flake a couple of times, you know, obviously early in a career,
00:59:22you never know the schedule and things come up.
00:59:24So a little early fake and I'd say I was a bad date early, early in my career.
00:59:28Okay.
00:59:28So flaky.
00:59:29Okay.
00:59:29But you learned.
00:59:30Yeah, for sure.
00:59:32Most underrated player or most underrated teammate you ever had just didn't get enough
00:59:36credit.
00:59:37Underrated teammates.
00:59:40Oh, I mean, as a coming in as a special teams guy, I'd have to go with a special teams guy.
00:59:45Probably Ebner, you know, and the things he did for us early, you know, on special teams,
00:59:49right along with Slater.
00:59:50So definitely Ebner.
00:59:51So what did you see then that we missed?
00:59:53You know, aside from like, we're not watching all 22 special teams kick coverage, right?
00:59:57But he made an impact.
00:59:58He was here for a while.
00:59:59Just as a PP.
00:59:59I don't think people understand like what goes into making sure points don't go blocked
01:00:03and how much that can change the game.
01:00:05You know, every coach says, Hey, the points get blocked.
01:00:07You know, it's like some 90% chance of winning a game with some crazy statistic they throw
01:00:10out, but just a guy who can come in and do those things and take over.
01:00:14All right, John Jones gets a day to himself.
01:00:15No family obligations, no practice, no meetings, no work.
01:00:18He's just a home alone.
01:00:20What does the next 12 to 16 hours look like?
01:00:22Oh, probably wake up, get some good food, maybe go out fishing for a little bit early
01:00:26in the morning, get around the golf and fly somewhere for dinner.
01:00:30That is an ideal solo day.
01:00:32All of those solo activities you just nailed it.
01:00:34We're under a minute here in the four minute drill.
01:00:36We got two more.
01:00:37Let's talk about your least favorite media question.
01:00:39You've been here a while.
01:00:40You're the old man here.
01:00:41I think you got a nap later after practice.
01:00:43What's your least favorite media question?
01:00:45I don't know.
01:00:47A lot of them get redundant.
01:00:49You know, the typical questions that you know you're going to ask, but least favorite was
01:00:54like, what happened?
01:00:55Why did we lose?
01:00:56I don't know.
01:00:56At some point, you know, you guys watched the game.
01:00:58You saw the points that were scored or the turnovers or what happened.
01:01:01So I guess why did we lose?
01:01:03I guess that was kind of a typical.
01:01:05All right, 15 seconds.
01:01:06Let's do the opposite of that.
01:01:07Why are you going to win on Sunday?
01:01:09Why are we going to win?
01:01:10I think we're going to dominate, you know, dominate the trenches, dominate up front and
01:01:13then make plays.
01:01:14Just put together some consistent drives on offense and then on the back end on defense,
01:01:19you know, get off the field.
01:01:20There it is.
01:01:20Clock management.
01:01:21Four minutes on the dot.
01:01:22He's John Jones.
01:01:22Thank you very much, bro.

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