This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 07/05/2025.
Some thundery rain is possible this weekend, otherwise the settled weather remains.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
Some thundery rain is possible this weekend, otherwise the settled weather remains.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00High pressure has been the main talking point so far this spring really and it's going to continue to be so as we go through the next 10 days but there could be something of a blip as we go through this weekend potential for something a bit wetter maybe even a bit thundery particularly towards the southwest more on that in a second but let's start off looking through the rest of this week I'll rattle through it quite quickly because there isn't really a lot changing high pressure sticking around for the time being
00:26bringing a lot of dry settled often sunny weather that being said the air around us it's not especially warm so we have had some chilly nights we could see a few more chilly nights to come perhaps a touch of frost and some prone rural spots maybe a few pockets of mist and fog here and there but on the whole a generally fine picture however as that high pressure drifts away towards the east we are going to see a couple of things so the wind direction where we're getting our air from that changes and so that's going to lead to a slight rise in our temperatures as we
00:55go into the weekend and also with the high drifting away towards the east we are going to see a front trying to push its way in from the northwest if we look at saturday then and well that front's not expected to make a huge amount of progress it may just fringe the far northwest of scotland but whilst there is some uncertainty could push across other parts of the outer hebrides maybe across the far northwest of mainland scotland possibly orkney and shetland i think generally it's likely to stay just to the northwest of us that being said
01:25a few showers are possible across parts of scotland and maybe across parts of northern ireland too i think the graphics behind me a little pessimistic with those showers bringing a few too many but some pokey showers are possible perhaps across both scotland and northern ireland yes otherwise and actually across the bulk of england and wales a decent dry often sunny day and in that sunshine it's going to feel pretty warm temperatures peaking low possibly mid-20s like i said yes we're going to see our temperatures rising a little bit as we go into the weekend and that will perhaps
01:55be most notable across some eastern coastal parts where temperatures have been a little bit on the low side bit of a chilly feel recently i think it's going to feel markedly warmer than of late as we go into the weekend but then as we go overnight and into sunday our attention turns to an area of low pressure that's pushing its way up from the north now some question marks about this how much progress it's going to make across the country but let's start off looking at our met office model and this has
02:22some fairly frequent showers feeding in particularly across parts of cornwall but we could see some of those showers feeding into devon maybe somerset wiltshire and across parts of south wales as well as we go through the day and it's worth bearing in mind
02:35these could be heavy there could be some thunder mixed in with them as well away from this though and apart from a few showers across scotland again it's actually looking largely fine for most places and temperatures even a few degrees higher
02:46so compared to saturday so a greater chance of getting into the mid-20s but as we go through later on saturday there's a reasonable chance that some showers across parts of france could push their way northwards and so across parts of the south southeast we may see some perhaps even heavy showers feeding in as we go through later on but this is just one model if we compare a few now and you can see there are some question marks still to play for
03:11if we have the met office model on the left hand side ec ecmwf the european center for medium range weather forecasting in the middle and gfs the american model on the right and this is showing
03:20our 24-hour rainfall forecast for this sunday and what you can see like i just showed you the met office model really keeps the rain most likely just towards the southwest perhaps just pushing into the far southwest of wales
03:33meanwhile the ec model has the rain much more widespread still far north northeastern parts
03:38staying largely dry but the rain looks like it would be a bit heavier as well as affecting more people if this came off we're looking worst case scenario totals on sunday maybe
03:4930 40 millimeters through the whole day but a large chunk of that maybe 15 to 20 millimeters coming in just a couple of hours and that's enough with that kind of intensity of rain
03:59to cause a few issues so there could be a bit of localized surface flooding and also we have to bear in mind with the potential of some thundery showers and frequent lightning perhaps even a bit of hail so it could cause some problems we don't have any warnings at the moment the lead times too long but we may need to issue some nearer the time once confidence firms up a little bit another way looking at sunday's forecast when it comes to rainfall totals is if actually we compare recent met office model runs on the left hand side i have the most recent run
04:27from the three zed on wednesday morning then the 15 zed on tuesday afternoon in the middle and then the three zed on tuesday morning on the right now the uh the previous one yesterday morning's forecast it had that band of rain that i mentioned towards the northwest of the uk still lingering here
04:43but didn't really bring in that rain from the south from the south or southwest however the 15 zed run painted a very different story for this coming sunday and had that rain coming in across more parts of southwest england across wales even pushing into parts of northern ireland kind of similar
05:00to the most recent ec run however like i've already been through the most recent met office model run all wants to keep that mostly just across parts of the southwest we can look at that in a different
05:11way if we show our various members forecast rain for the 24 hours that is sunday and they all well they're chopping and changing they're showing different places of where we're going to see the rain just taking
05:22a couple for example and member two has really the rain mainly just towards the southwest member three has the rain mainly just towards the northwest but then member eight has the rain across the bulk of the country
05:32so paints quite a wet picture so a lot to play for still about what could come this sunday
05:38it could be it's likely to be pretty fine dry and sunny for many places but there could be some heavy rain around particularly towards the southwest
05:45looking ahead to monday and the kind of changeable story continues or question marks as to what could happen continue again met office model keeping some rain mainly towards the southwest
05:55otherwise largely dry for many places ec however again painting a bit of a wet story for many places
06:02the rainfall totals don't look quite as high as on sunday but nonetheless there could be some heavier
06:07showery bursts around particularly across parts of east anglia and then gfs is something in between
06:12so as we go into next week still likely to be feeling the effects of something some sort of system around
06:18bringing the potential for some wet weather but as we go through next week
06:22and there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see high pressure returning
06:26and so if we look at our most likely setups based on a number of model runs from the met office
06:31and this goes with the idea for next monday of high pressure somewhere around the uk maybe just to the west being the most dominant story
06:39now if this comes off the weather as we go through the early to middle part of next week
06:44actually looks quite similar to this week really so yes high pressure firmly in control looking largely dry
06:50lots of settled weather around good deal of sunshine too
06:52but notice that wind direction coming in from the north and so there'll be a fresh feel to things at times
06:57we could still have some chilly nights and particularly down the eastern side similar to this week really
07:01a bit of a fresh feel at times during the day as well
07:04and that's the setup that's most likely as we go through next tuesday next wednesday as well
07:09but by the end of next week that high pressure is likely to have shifted just that little bit towards the east
07:14and that's going to do two things again it's going to still bring largely dry settled weather to many places
07:20but it's going to change where our air is coming from perhaps a bit more of an east south easterly
07:24developing and so that's going to lead to a rise in our temperatures and just showing you friday
07:29quickly it looks very similar to thursday currently but you may notice that the percentage chance for
07:34this is only around 17 percent that's not especially low for this kind of lead time looking around 10 days
07:39ahead but it's not especially high any either however if we look at the three most likely setups for next
07:45friday and actually they're quite similar the second most likely setup has the high pressure
07:51just that little bit further north but still just to the northeast of the uk still largely dry across
07:56the country and bringing in a east or southeasterly or southerly flow across the country meanwhile the
08:02second most likely has that high a little bit further towards the west more near iceland but actually
08:07the story is relatively similar the further the high is away further towards the northeast the greater
08:13chance of something trying to come in from the west but i think on the whole it looks like high pressure
08:18is going to be the most dominating pattern as we go through much of next week and with that change in
08:24wind direction similar to this week we should see our temperatures rising as well we can look at that in a
08:29different way if we look at our meteograms for our capital cities from ecmwf are throwing leads in
08:34there as well just to cover something a little bit more central but they all show similar idea if we take
08:39cardiff for example and temperatures a little bit on the low side as we go through the end of this week
08:45picking up as we go through this weekend notice a relatively large spread on both sunday and monday for
08:51cardiff in particular and that's because of that uncertainty about that wet weather that's pushing in from
08:56the southwest but generally likely to be above average and then staying above average maybe creeping up a
09:01little bit as we go towards the end of the next week with that slight change in wind direction so i think it's fair to
09:06say that whilst there's a bit of a thundery blip perhaps particularly towards the southwest as we go
09:12through this sunday and perhaps into monday on the whole there's a lot more dry fine sunny and at times
09:18rather warm weather to come as we go through the next 10 days bye